Weekly structural research · MEX · Industrials

TKR Stage Analysis

The Timken Company

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 2,238.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 2−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 36/100directional strength

Maturity 76/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +43.6%MXN 1,558.95 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	2,238.00	2,016.39	28.31	0	Deceleration	2	36
2026-09-18	2,238.00	1,989.61	32.58	0	Deceleration	10	39
2026-09-11	2,238.00	1,962.82	32.48	0	Deceleration	15	45
2026-09-04	2,238.00	1,936.02	31.60	0	Deceleration	29	53
2026-08-28	2,238.00	1,909.23	31.30	0	Deceleration	33	50
2026-08-21	2,238.00	1,882.44	31.66	0	Deceleration	46	41
2026-08-14	2,231.80	1,855.65	34.90	0	Upward Expansion	56	62
2026-08-07	2,437.33	1,829.06	42.70	0	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-07-31	2,553.05	1,795.62	50.88	0	Upward Expansion	69	69
2026-07-24	2,552.99	1,758.33	53.73	0	Upward Expansion	71	70
2026-07-17	2,553.04	1,721.04	54.76	0	Upward Expansion	79	73
2026-07-10	2,560.00	1,683.75	57.08	0	Upward Expansion	91	77
2026-07-03	2,560.00	1,646.22	57.40	0	Upward Expansion	98	79
2026-06-26	2,450.00	1,608.69	51.90	0	Upward Expansion	98	88
2026-06-19	2,205.00	1,574.84	37.20	0	Upward Expansion	76	91
2026-06-12	2,205.00	1,549.13	37.69	0	Rotation Up	84	94
2026-06-05	2,205.00	1,523.43	42.54	0	Rotation Up	95	78
2026-05-29	2,205.00	1,498.70	38.64	142	Upward Expansion	96	79
2026-05-22	2,000.00	1,473.97	27.18	111	Upward Expansion	95	78
2026-05-15	1,999.64	1,456.07	28.35	17	Upward Expansion	93	77
2026-05-08	1,434.58	1,438.19	-10.03	0	Downward Expansion	-48	62
2026-05-01	1,434.58	1,440.14	-7.45	0	Downward Expansion	-48	62
2026-04-24	1,434.58	1,442.09	-9.32	0	Downward Expansion	-44	60
2026-04-17	1,434.58	1,444.03	-10.14	0	Downward Expansion	-44	60
2026-04-10	1,434.58	1,445.98	-10.69	0	Downward Expansion	-44	60
2026-04-03	1,434.58	1,447.93	-10.60	0	Downward Expansion	-44	60
2026-03-27	1,434.58	1,449.88	-6.78	0	Downward Expansion	-44	60
2026-03-20	1,434.58	1,451.82	-3.65	0	Downward Expansion	-53	64
2026-03-13	1,434.58	1,453.77	-6.38	0	Downward Expansion	-53	64
2026-03-06	1,434.58	1,455.71	-9.18	0	Downward Expansion	-53	84
2026-02-27	1,434.58	1,454.44	-15.08	0	Downward Expansion	-53	84
2026-02-20	1,434.23	1,453.18	-15.90	0	Downward Expansion	-53	84
2026-02-13	1,434.23	1,453.00	-16.54	0	Downward Expansion	-54	84
2026-02-06	1,434.23	1,452.82	-16.34	0	Downward Expansion	-55	83
2026-01-30	1,434.23	1,452.63	-12.99	0	Downward Expansion	-57	84
2026-01-23	1,434.23	1,452.31	-14.37	0	Downward Expansion	-57	84
2026-01-16	1,434.23	1,448.91	-13.65	0	Deceleration	-30	75
2026-01-09	1,434.23	1,445.51	-12.90	0	Deceleration	-39	56
2026-01-02	1,434.23	1,442.11	-10.79	0	Rotation Down	-40	57
2025-12-26	1,434.23	1,438.71	-13.29	0	Rotation Down	-31	55
2025-12-19	1,434.23	1,435.31	-11.52	0	Rotation Down	-31	61
2025-12-12	1,434.23	1,434.96	-13.25	0	Deceleration	-31	76
2025-12-05	1,434.23	1,434.61	-12.07	0	Deceleration	-23	73
2025-11-28	1,434.23	1,427.09	-12.99	0	Rotation Down	-35	77
2025-11-21	1,433.88	1,419.57	-11.28	18	Rotation Down	-39	79
2025-11-14	1,433.88	1,412.06	-12.54	20	Rotation Down	-23	68
2025-11-07	1,463.14	1,407.55	-12.84	0	Deceleration	36	44
2025-10-31	1,463.14	1,401.26	-12.50	0	Deceleration	44	36
2025-10-24	1,463.14	1,392.88	-10.72	0	Upward Expansion	51	49
2025-10-17	1,463.14	1,394.91	-12.03	20	Upward Expansion	57	60
2025-10-10	1,493.00	1,396.93	-8.92	0	Upward Expansion	70	88
2025-10-03	1,493.00	1,396.81	-11.38	0	Upward Expansion	70	89
2025-09-26	1,493.00	1,401.98	-12.23	0	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-09-19	1,493.00	1,406.87	-11.05	0	Rotation Up	70	89
2025-09-12	1,493.00	1,408.88	-12.30	0	Rotation Up	42	79
2025-09-05	1,493.00	1,410.89	-10.81	0	Rotation Up	49	82
2025-08-29	1,493.00	1,412.89	-8.54	0	Rotation Up	61	86
2025-08-22	1,493.00	1,414.90	-9.65	0	Rotation Up	64	82
2025-08-15	1,492.65	1,416.91	-8.57	506	Rotation Up	57	76
2025-08-08	1,396.74	1,418.93	-14.20	0	Rotation Up	5	36
2025-08-01	1,396.74	1,420.27	-12.69	35	Rotation Up	9	55
2025-07-25	1,428.71	1,421.62	-11.59	0	Rotation Up	34	72
2025-07-18	1,428.71	1,421.91	-10.16	0	Balance	17	49
2025-07-11	1,428.71	1,429.21	-10.82	66	Balance	15	25
2025-07-04	1,424.71	1,436.51	-13.31	350	Downward Expansion	-2	9
2025-06-27	1,332.22	1,443.94	-18.33	0	Downward Expansion	-48	33
2025-06-20	1,332.22	1,454.46	-16.99	0	Downward Expansion	-40	31
2025-06-13	1,332.22	1,464.98	-18.95	0	Downward Expansion	-37	27
2025-06-06	1,332.22	1,475.48	-20.11	0	Downward Expansion	-35	34
2025-05-30	1,332.22	1,484.58	-20.09	35	Downward Expansion	-41	30
2025-05-23	1,423.71	1,493.68	-15.67	0	Downward Expansion	-49	40
2025-05-16	1,423.71	1,499.73	-15.20	237	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2025-05-09	1,208.61	1,505.78	-26.26	0	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2025-05-02	1,208.61	1,519.00	-25.50	0	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2025-04-25	1,208.61	1,532.22	-26.92	95	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2025-04-18	1,298.51	1,545.43	-16.25	132	Downward Expansion	-80	93
2025-04-11	1,274.53	1,555.66	-15.50	55	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2025-04-04	1,211.86	1,566.68	-19.67	118	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2025-03-28	1,523.82	1,579.79	-2.41	0	Rotation Down	-54	40
2025-03-21	1,523.82	1,582.50	-1.31	54	Rotation Down	-42	21
2025-03-14	1,489.45	1,585.21	-3.03	69	Rotation Down	-37	25
2025-03-07	1,648.11	1,585.47	6.86	46	Rotation Up	45	47
2025-02-28	1,639.72	1,580.45	7.81	90	Rotation Up	27	32
2025-02-21	1,553.21	1,575.70	-0.12	0	Downward Expansion	-33	34
2025-02-14	1,553.21	1,573.84	-0.43	0	Rotation Down	-35	38
2025-02-07	1,553.21	1,571.97	2.28	0	Rotation Down	-10	27
2025-01-31	1,553.21	1,570.11	5.89	0	Rotation Down	-34	42
2025-01-24	1,553.21	1,568.24	6.07	0	Rotation Down	-38	77
2025-01-17	1,553.21	1,566.38	9.54	176	Rotation Down	-38	58
2025-01-10	1,437.20	1,564.52	2.51	0	Rotation Down	-56	65
2025-01-03	1,437.20	1,566.52	4.16	0	Rotation Down	-55	64
2024-12-27	1,437.20	1,568.52	3.82	35	Rotation Down	-26	45
2024-12-20	1,647.75	1,570.53	18.75	0	Upward Expansion	69	69
2024-12-13	1,647.75	1,565.51	14.96	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-12-06	1,647.75	1,560.50	16.35	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-11-29	1,647.75	1,555.47	20.68	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-11-22	1,647.75	1,550.45	20.01	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-11-15	1,647.41	1,545.42	20.64	17	Deceleration	92	76
2024-11-08	1,605.17	1,540.40	15.13	0	Deceleration	57	63
2024-11-01	1,605.17	1,536.80	18.46	0	Deceleration	57	64
2024-10-25	1,605.17	1,533.19	16.41	0	Deceleration	57	65
2024-10-18	1,605.17	1,529.58	14.13	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2024-10-11	1,605.17	1,525.98	15.87	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-10-04	1,605.17	1,518.00	15.84	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-09-27	1,605.17	1,510.01	15.91	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-09-20	1,605.17	1,502.03	17.72	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-09-13	1,605.17	1,494.05	18.63	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-09-06	1,605.17	1,486.07	21.33	0	Upward Expansion	95	78
2024-08-30	1,605.17	1,478.08	17.74	0	Upward Expansion	95	78
2024-08-23	1,605.17	1,470.08	17.02	120	Deceleration	93	78
2024-08-16	1,497.30	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-08-09	1,497.30	1,457.70	10.84	0	Deceleration	58	65
2024-08-02	1,497.30	1,453.30	12.73	0	Deceleration	58	65
2024-07-26	1,497.30	1,448.90	11.73	0	Deceleration	58	65
2024-07-19	1,497.30	1,444.51	9.94	0	Upward Expansion	58	65
2024-07-12	1,497.30	1,436.80	7.29	0	Upward Expansion	63	87
2024-07-05	1,497.30	1,429.09	12.51	0	Upward Expansion	65	88
2024-06-28	1,497.30	1,421.39	12.25	0	Upward Expansion	66	88
2024-06-21	1,497.30	1,413.68	11.53	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-06-14	1,497.30	1,405.98	12.79	0	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-06-07	1,497.30	1,398.27	11.38	0	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-05-31	1,497.30	1,390.13	7.30	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-05-24	1,497.30	1,382.00	7.08	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-05-17	1,497.30	1,373.86	3.29	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-05-10	1,496.96	1,365.72	3.22	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-05-03	1,496.96	1,357.59	4.50	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-04-26	1,496.96	1,349.46	3.35	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-04-19	1,496.96	1,341.33	7.09	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-04-12	1,496.96	1,334.16	5.83	0	Upward Expansion	87	96
2024-04-05	1,496.96	1,326.99	3.09	0	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-03-29	1,496.96	1,319.82	4.33	0	Upward Expansion	99	100
2024-03-22	1,496.96	1,312.64	5.72	36	Upward Expansion	98	79
2024-03-15	1,365.73	1,305.58	-2.93	0	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-03-08	1,365.73	1,302.80	-0.88	0	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-03-01	1,365.73	1,303.82	-2.18	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-02-23	1,365.73	1,304.83	-4.51	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-02-16	1,365.73	1,311.38	-5.77	0	Rotation Up	67	68
2024-02-09	1,365.40	1,317.93	-6.56	0	Rotation Up	39	64
2024-02-02	1,365.40	1,324.49	-8.47	0	Rotation Up	40	79
2024-01-26	1,365.40	1,331.06	-6.70	0	Rotation Up	40	79
2024-01-19	1,365.40	1,336.04	-4.56	0	Rotation Up	48	62
2024-01-12	1,365.40	1,339.78	-4.87	0	Rotation Up	59	66
2024-01-05	1,365.40	1,342.53	-5.93	0	Rotation Up	41	59
2023-12-29	1,365.40	1,340.13	-8.02	250	Rotation Up	35	56
2023-12-22	1,266.14	1,337.74	-14.87	0	Downward Expansion	-53	63
2023-12-15	1,266.14	1,338.64	-14.91	0	Downward Expansion	-53	63
2023-12-08	1,266.14	1,338.88	-10.97	0	Downward Expansion	-53	83
2023-12-01	1,266.14	1,339.10	-10.45	0	Downward Expansion	-53	84
2023-11-24	1,266.14	1,342.32	-9.07	0	Downward Expansion	-54	84
2023-11-17	1,266.14	1,345.53	-8.79	7600	Downward Expansion	-56	84
2023-11-10	1,253.12	1,350.04	-7.36	0	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2023-11-03	1,253.12	1,355.46	-7.49	0	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2023-10-27	1,253.12	1,360.88	-3.31	0	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2023-10-20	1,253.12	1,366.30	-2.06	0	Downward Expansion	-72	82
2023-10-13	1,253.12	1,371.88	-4.39	0	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2023-10-06	1,253.12	1,377.47	-5.08	0	Downward Expansion	-81	93

Price vs TrendAbove+11.0%

Trend directionRising+17.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+43.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-22.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+28.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-23.6%

Price momentumPositive+56.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

2 / ±100

-30.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

36 /100

-14.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TKR Directional State ↗ TKR Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance60

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion55

Deceleration88

Rotation Down38

Downward Expansion33

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 155 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 14%Upward Expansion 34%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-08-14	Developing	+1.2%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-06-12	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-05-29	New	+10.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-05-08	Established	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-01-09	2026-01-16	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2025-12-19	2026-01-02	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-12-05	2025-12-12	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-11-28	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-10-24	Developing	-2.0%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-09-19	Developing	+4.5%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-07-18	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-07-04	Established	+17.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing1

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution70

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 30/100
Current Relative Strength: 28.31
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +56.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +58.5%
Industrials regime cohort: 36th percentile14 in cohort

Test TKR trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TKR Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 2,238.00falling

Slow Activity MXN 2,212.67rising

Trend Reference MXN 2,016.39+11.0% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 1,558.95+43.6% close margin

Structural low MXN 1,434.58shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +1.5%

Annualized volatility +52.0%

From structural high -12.6%

From structural low +56.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	+0.0%-9.2% to +17.9%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-2.2%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+3.9%-14.7% to +12.8%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+2.2%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-2.0%-11.5% to +17.2%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-5.9%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-6.7%-35.6% to +3.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-14.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TKR Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map