Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

CUP Stage Analysis

Count Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 1.43Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 63−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 62/100directional strength

Maturity 79/100lifecycle context

Confidence 66/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +71.9%AUD 0.8319 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.43	1.19	26.73	624534	Upward Expansion	63	62
2026-10-02	1.43	1.18	28.17	478404	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-09-25	1.45	1.17	31.22	684623	Upward Expansion	69	86
2026-09-18	1.50	1.15	35.34	663198	Upward Expansion	77	92
2026-09-11	1.48	1.14	34.95	1253582	Upward Expansion	82	94
2026-09-04	1.50	1.12	33.85	44660	Upward Expansion	97	99
2026-08-28	1.50	1.11	33.25	52594	Upward Expansion	97	99
2026-08-21	1.29	1.09	16.74	38134	Upward Expansion	92	97
2026-08-14	1.30	1.09	17.33	271299	Upward Expansion	82	86
2026-08-07	1.11	1.08	-0.39	462938	Balance	18	21
2026-07-31	1.10	1.08	1.72	149953	Downward Expansion	-20	12
2026-07-24	1.04	1.08	-0.62	3491	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2026-07-17	1.04	1.08	-1.14	92960	Downward Expansion	-57	34
2026-07-10	1.06	1.08	0.41	150429	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2026-07-03	1.05	1.08	-0.30	140258	Downward Expansion	-54	40
2026-06-26	1.04	1.08	0.26	192546	Downward Expansion	-57	47
2026-06-19	1.05	1.09	-0.07	48262	Balance	-56	51
2026-06-12	1.05	1.09	0.59	99802	Balance	-28	41
2026-06-05	1.03	1.09	1.06	366265	Balance	-25	35
2026-05-29	1.08	1.09	4.56	254896	Balance	-10	18
2026-05-22	1.05	1.09	3.52	4202828	Balance	-14	11
2026-05-15	1.06	1.09	5.34	685814	Upward Expansion	20	13
2026-05-08	1.08	1.09	6.99	913645	Upward Expansion	39	27
2026-05-01	1.17	1.08	16.12	243553	Upward Expansion	56	30
2026-04-24	1.18	1.08	16.72	1374874	Upward Expansion	48	21
2026-04-17	1.09	1.07	6.94	1015582	Upward Expansion	27	15
2026-04-10	1.06	1.07	4.26	446182	Upward Expansion	36	22
2026-04-03	1.06	1.07	9.90	719139	Upward Expansion	46	47
2026-03-27	1.14	1.07	19.21	523251	Upward Expansion	58	64
2026-03-20	1.20	1.06	27.78	311738	Balance	79	55
2026-03-13	1.12	1.05	18.26	399610	Balance	49	27
2026-03-06	1.08	1.04	11.33	436215	Balance	19	13
2026-02-27	1.12	1.04	11.75	603889	Upward Expansion	29	25
2026-02-20	0.9875	1.03	0.38	668947	Upward Expansion	-40	39
2026-02-13	1.02	1.03	6.20	113796	Upward Expansion	-9	16
2026-02-06	1.04	1.02	10.88	125225	Upward Expansion	20	14
2026-01-30	1.11	1.02	17.28	80070	Upward Expansion	67	44
2026-01-23	1.08	1.01	15.06	42292	Upward Expansion	44	34
2026-01-16	1.08	1.01	15.25	220464	Upward Expansion	56	40
2026-01-09	1.09	1.00	18.95	82819	Upward Expansion	59	45
2026-01-02	1.11	0.9962	21.80	115428	Upward Expansion	70	51
2025-12-26	1.08	0.9871	19.44	90208	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-12-19	1.09	0.9771	23.26	365407	Upward Expansion	65	57
2025-12-12	1.08	0.9663	21.91	133311	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-12-05	1.09	0.9554	24.31	280766	Upward Expansion	68	54
2025-11-28	1.09	0.9454	26.15	270353	Upward Expansion	73	56
2025-11-21	1.05	0.9338	25.37	416874	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-11-14	1.06	0.9252	23.61	677913	Upward Expansion	64	53
2025-11-07	1.06	0.9156	22.91	146263	Upward Expansion	68	57
2025-10-31	1.06	0.9035	22.21	127089	Upward Expansion	70	59
2025-10-24	1.07	0.8911	22.40	487616	Upward Expansion	80	66
2025-10-17	1.03	0.879	19.18	327487	Upward Expansion	69	62
2025-10-10	1.03	0.8682	20.02	302876	Upward Expansion	70	80
2025-10-03	1.02	0.8572	20.03	888521	Upward Expansion	70	87
2025-09-26	1.01	0.8464	22.52	125018	Upward Expansion	66	87
2025-09-19	1.02	0.837	24.93	125173	Upward Expansion	76	91
2025-09-12	1.02	0.8269	25.08	589600	Upward Expansion	82	83
2025-09-05	1.00	0.8174	23.14	473899	Deceleration	79	57
2025-08-29	0.991	0.8088	21.52	1232796	Deceleration	77	45
2025-08-22	0.8569	0.8006	6.01	76108	Deceleration	36	24
2025-08-15	0.8713	0.7962	8.72	213800	Deceleration	41	32
2025-08-08	0.90	0.7918	14.63	7474	Upward Expansion	47	43
2025-08-01	0.8904	0.7859	16.11	133691	Upward Expansion	59	51
2025-07-25	0.9096	0.7808	19.37	60056	Upward Expansion	63	61
2025-07-18	0.9096	0.7754	19.05	278582	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-07-11	0.9192	0.7694	23.81	214956	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-07-04	0.9575	0.7618	29.85	283919	Upward Expansion	83	92
2025-06-27	0.9287	0.7537	28.63	508725	Upward Expansion	84	90
2025-06-20	0.9335	0.7476	30.70	860241	Upward Expansion	90	88
2025-06-13	0.8426	0.7418	18.71	271493	Upward Expansion	78	74
2025-06-06	0.833	0.74	18.81	335230	Upward Expansion	77	59
2025-05-30	0.7803	0.7359	13.36	291373	Upward Expansion	61	44
2025-05-23	0.766	0.7317	13.03	486836	Upward Expansion	54	38
2025-05-16	0.7564	0.7275	12.55	324854	Upward Expansion	54	56
2025-05-09	0.7851	0.7234	19.19	185848	Balance	63	57
2025-05-02	0.742	0.7177	13.42	170903	Balance	49	37
2025-04-25	0.7947	0.7135	26.29	199108	Balance	69	44
2025-04-18	0.766	0.7075	25.11	321307	Balance	47	21
2025-04-11	0.699	0.7019	17.71	283027	Balance	-16	17
2025-04-04	0.6894	0.6987	16.57	133853	Balance	-6	23
2025-03-28	0.7085	0.6958	15.84	173518	Balance	5	17
2025-03-21	0.7085	0.6916	17.31	236450	Balance	7	16
2025-03-14	0.6942	0.6869	17.69	421133	Balance	0	13
2025-03-07	0.7006	0.6827	17.09	417889	Upward Expansion	11	10
2025-02-28	0.7287	0.6775	19.05	706303	Upward Expansion	38	25
2025-02-21	0.7193	0.6719	16.33	321564	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-02-14	0.738	0.6665	15.97	111458	Upward Expansion	56	42
2025-02-07	0.7427	0.6595	17.62	90156	Upward Expansion	59	41
2025-01-31	0.7474	0.6519	18.39	70138	Upward Expansion	63	41
2025-01-24	0.724	0.6437	16.72	538448	Upward Expansion	56	39
2025-01-17	0.738	0.6367	20.62	488539	Upward Expansion	62	48
2025-01-10	0.724	0.6279	18.77	336122	Upward Expansion	50	45
2025-01-03	0.738	0.6197	21.99	299264	Upward Expansion	55	46
2024-12-27	0.7474	0.6109	23.50	835442	Upward Expansion	62	50
2024-12-20	0.7287	0.6023	23.68	269210	Upward Expansion	57	51
2024-12-13	0.6913	0.5949	14.52	212960	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-12-06	0.7147	0.5884	16.79	225113	Upward Expansion	68	82
2024-11-29	0.7474	0.581	21.94	211190	Upward Expansion	70	89
2024-11-22	0.7567	0.5731	24.19	398586	Upward Expansion	84	93
2024-11-15	0.7894	0.5643	31.53	1232501	Upward Expansion	98	98
2024-11-08	0.71	0.5542	18.51	521833	Upward Expansion	95	93
2024-11-01	0.6539	0.5471	11.68	485171	Upward Expansion	82	81
2024-10-25	0.6399	0.5419	8.01	609246	Upward Expansion	79	78
2024-10-18	0.6353	0.5374	6.34	531354	Upward Expansion	81	77
2024-10-11	0.6119	0.5335	3.26	857963	Upward Expansion	68	70
2024-10-04	0.6166	0.5301	4.82	172478	Upward Expansion	73	78
2024-09-27	0.6166	0.5274	3.98	283220	Upward Expansion	78	85
2024-09-20	0.5979	0.525	0.79	327978	Upward Expansion	69	78
2024-09-13	0.6007	0.5251	2.54	211636	Upward Expansion	74	79
2024-09-06	0.6052	0.5245	4.61	564606	Upward Expansion	83	82
2024-08-30	0.5826	0.5239	0.01	1222671	Rotation Up	77	72
2024-08-23	0.5646	0.5241	-2.12	145127	Rotation Up	41	65
2024-08-16	0.5691	0.5251	-0.46	267040	Rotation Up	50	72
2024-08-09	0.5465	0.5264	-1.84	527730	Rotation Up	27	61
2024-08-02	0.56	0.5278	-1.25	702289	Rotation Up	43	63
2024-07-26	0.5555	0.5305	-1.53	514389	Balance	22	34
2024-07-19	0.5284	0.532	-6.68	424742	Balance	5	20
2024-07-12	0.5149	0.5335	-8.84	302127	Downward Expansion	-26	17
2024-07-05	0.5013	0.5357	-9.68	419548	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2024-06-28	0.5149	0.5392	-6.61	1125605	Downward Expansion	-55	42
2024-06-21	0.4742	0.5422	-14.23	636057	Downward Expansion	-70	75
2024-06-14	0.4787	0.5457	-12.63	397960	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2024-06-07	0.4742	0.5494	-14.96	560135	Downward Expansion	-74	61
2024-05-31	0.4878	0.5523	-10.83	457576	Downward Expansion	-65	44
2024-05-24	0.5058	0.5552	-7.85	377430	Downward Expansion	-47	35
2024-05-17	0.4968	0.5557	-10.48	363663	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2024-05-10	0.4923	0.5569	-10.57	610412	Downward Expansion	-66	50
2024-05-03	0.5104	0.5585	-5.76	912831	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2024-04-26	0.4923	0.5594	-8.34	475358	Downward Expansion	-68	76
2024-04-19	0.4878	0.5612	-8.98	356746	Downward Expansion	-75	83
2024-04-12	0.4968	0.5629	-9.84	323700	Rotation Down	-72	83
2024-04-05	0.4968	0.5628	-9.66	234767	Rotation Down	-48	73
2024-03-29	0.5058	0.5617	-9.47	385889	Rotation Down	-44	68
2024-03-22	0.5194	0.561	-5.53	343969	Rotation Down	-31	58
2024-03-15	0.5104	0.5583	-5.98	1017683	Deceleration	-37	50
2024-03-08	0.5329	0.5566	-4.01	1408471	Deceleration	-10	19
2024-03-01	0.5465	0.5537	-0.34	220128	Deceleration	-3	10
2024-02-23	0.6007	0.5504	11.29	285488	Deceleration	38	18
2024-02-16	0.5827	0.5454	7.91	168960	Deceleration	33	18
2024-02-09	0.5871	0.5412	9.01	65801	Deceleration	38	23
2024-02-02	0.5871	0.5373	8.31	36509	Upward Expansion	42	26
2024-01-26	0.596	0.533	12.14	126649	Upward Expansion	55	39
2024-01-19	0.6092	0.5284	16.90	13942	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-01-12	0.5871	0.5226	11.74	250208	Upward Expansion	57	42
2024-01-05	0.6401	0.5181	22.04	208562	Upward Expansion	79	55
2023-12-29	0.6004	0.5121	13.14	232561	Upward Expansion	66	49
2023-12-22	0.5739	0.5073	9.44	81882	Upward Expansion	61	51
2023-12-15	0.5827	0.5036	12.02	48019	Upward Expansion	62	55
2023-12-08	0.6048	0.4998	20.26	220591	Upward Expansion	71	73
2023-12-01	0.6048	0.4944	22.54	237678	Upward Expansion	74	73
2023-11-24	0.5783	0.4892	17.99	48004	Upward Expansion	64	58
2023-11-17	0.5916	0.4847	20.78	273639	Upward Expansion	73	52
2023-11-10	0.5607	0.48	15.84	36190	Upward Expansion	64	46
2023-11-03	0.5739	0.4768	18.59	111120	Upward Expansion	74	50
2023-10-27	0.5209	0.4732	10.04	68684	Upward Expansion	60	46
2023-10-20	0.5342	0.4711	11.60	212343	Upward Expansion	65	72

Price vs TrendAbove+20.5%

Trend directionRising+10.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+71.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+33.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+26.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+26.3%

Price momentumPositive+34.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.65×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

63 / ±100

-19.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

62 /100

-31.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CUP Directional State ↗ CUP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance12

Rotation Up51

Upward Expansion78

Deceleration72

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 13%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 63%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 12%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-10-09	Developing	+10.1%
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-08-07	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	+5.1%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-06-19	Developing	-0.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-05-15	Developing	-7.0%
Balance	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	+11.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2026-02-27	Established	+9.3%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-09-05	New	+14.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-08-08	Established	+19.0%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-05-09	Developing	+13.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-06	2025-03-07	Extended	+15.8%
Rotation Up	2024-08-02	2024-08-30	Developing	+4.0%
Balance	2024-07-19	2024-07-26	New	+5.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-04-19	2024-07-12	Established	+5.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing21

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 77/100
Current Relative Strength: 26.73
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +34.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +37.6%
Industrials regime cohort: 19th percentile31 in cohort

Test CUP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.06×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.65×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CUP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.45falling

Slow Activity AUD 1.25rising

Trend Reference AUD 1.19+20.5% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.8319+71.9% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.02shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.6%

Annualized volatility +35.0%

From structural high -5.0%

From structural low +50.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	29	+0.9%-10.6% to +14.3%	+58.6%	+58.6%	+0.7%	+82.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+4.8%-15.7% to +20.1%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+4.3%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+12.8%-24.9% to +42.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+14.6%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+28.0%-20.1% to +64.1%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+20.4%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CUP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map