Weekly structural research · MEX · Industrials

HWM Stage Analysis

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 4,121.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -40−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 78/100directional strength

Maturity 12/100lifecycle context

Confidence 61/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +51.5%MXN 2,720.07 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	4,121.00	4,472.46	0.76	296	Rotation Down	-40	78
2026-09-18	3,871.00	4,484.30	-2.73	61	Rotation Down	-57	84
2026-09-11	3,981.00	4,502.46	-0.70	3545	Rotation Down	-53	55
2026-09-04	4,376.00	4,512.49	7.79	2156	Deceleration	-6	26
2026-08-28	4,469.00	4,488.01	9.51	18	Upward Expansion	16	16
2026-08-21	4,677.00	4,460.42	14.60	0	Upward Expansion	51	47
2026-08-14	4,752.27	4,429.23	19.46	0	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-08-07	5,014.00	4,403.13	21.95	0	Upward Expansion	90	90
2026-07-31	4,797.74	4,358.90	17.33	0	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-07-24	4,752.74	4,321.87	17.60	0	Upward Expansion	65	70
2026-07-17	4,774.85	4,290.06	18.12	68	Upward Expansion	67	72
2026-07-10	4,837.70	4,252.87	20.22	0	Upward Expansion	78	84
2026-07-03	4,692.87	4,208.27	16.14	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2026-06-26	4,698.00	4,168.51	16.47	3972	Upward Expansion	69	55
2026-06-19	4,828.50	4,135.71	19.22	0	Upward Expansion	84	58
2026-06-12	4,522.00	4,095.09	11.69	1301	Upward Expansion	64	42
2026-06-05	4,323.00	4,067.15	10.02	0	Upward Expansion	57	49
2026-05-29	4,485.00	4,049.04	10.34	161	Upward Expansion	62	76
2026-05-22	4,450.00	4,020.53	10.19	2094	Upward Expansion	62	73
2026-05-15	4,650.00	3,993.17	16.14	1964	Upward Expansion	84	71
2026-05-08	4,665.00	3,956.83	13.91	527	Upward Expansion	81	53
2026-05-01	4,199.89	3,916.04	6.02	8814	Upward Expansion	45	37
2026-04-24	4,109.89	3,896.03	1.95	376	Upward Expansion	48	41
2026-04-17	4,457.89	3,875.79	10.16	137	Deceleration	75	59
2026-04-10	4,377.89	3,843.82	8.51	2720	Deceleration	59	44
2026-04-03	4,220.89	3,812.31	5.51	0	Upward Expansion	47	41
2026-03-27	4,220.89	3,779.80	10.88	1226	Upward Expansion	62	55
2026-03-20	4,157.89	3,749.00	14.03	181	Upward Expansion	66	73
2026-03-13	4,254.88	3,718.39	14.58	784	Upward Expansion	67	88
2026-03-06	4,434.89	3,684.38	17.18	277	Upward Expansion	77	92
2026-02-27	4,476.30	3,648.38	12.19	878	Upward Expansion	89	96
2026-02-20	4,415.89	3,614.15	11.04	1047	Upward Expansion	91	90
2026-02-13	4,281.91	3,582.65	8.06	2907	Upward Expansion	86	55
2026-02-06	3,641.41	3,559.51	-6.93	0	Upward Expansion	42	31
2026-01-30	3,641.29	3,549.78	-2.46	3479	Upward Expansion	55	40
2026-01-23	3,741.55	3,538.49	-0.54	307	Upward Expansion	61	65
2026-01-16	3,969.27	3,529.36	7.56	811	Upward Expansion	88	86
2026-01-09	3,686.96	3,507.30	2.02	0	Upward Expansion	56	58
2026-01-02	3,686.96	3,494.66	5.45	4959	Deceleration	57	40
2025-12-26	3,798.28	3,483.68	6.57	19	Deceleration	72	37
2025-12-19	3,659.26	3,466.75	5.80	3225	Deceleration	45	24
2025-12-12	3,499.79	3,451.20	0.46	7	Deceleration	32	22
2025-12-05	3,499.79	3,439.36	2.84	1411	Upward Expansion	43	31
2025-11-28	3,714.28	3,424.49	9.08	30	Upward Expansion	72	59
2025-11-21	3,609.79	3,401.56	9.34	1391	Upward Expansion	66	63
2025-11-14	3,683.78	3,366.26	11.18	174	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-11-07	3,779.78	3,325.02	12.78	1413	Upward Expansion	89	89
2025-10-31	3,629.47	3,286.47	9.98	0	Upward Expansion	76	70
2025-10-24	3,629.47	3,242.05	13.59	200	Upward Expansion	79	75
2025-10-17	3,559.68	3,211.72	11.10	642	Upward Expansion	71	73
2025-10-10	3,441.19	3,180.68	10.23	176	Upward Expansion	62	70
2025-10-03	3,599.68	3,148.48	13.48	41	Upward Expansion	81	82
2025-09-26	3,502.58	3,112.43	10.65	1314	Deceleration	70	53
2025-09-19	3,498.79	3,086.49	13.36	7857	Deceleration	61	42
2025-09-12	3,432.69	3,058.83	11.07	54	Deceleration	42	24
2025-09-05	3,245.71	3,035.39	8.15	262	Deceleration	17	26
2025-08-29	3,296.67	3,015.04	13.94	20	Deceleration	33	31
2025-08-22	3,239.71	2,991.68	11.87	2232	Deceleration	41	29
2025-08-15	3,234.71	2,959.61	14.32	60	Upward Expansion	48	47
2025-08-08	3,354.70	2,927.70	20.15	995	Upward Expansion	63	64
2025-08-01	3,449.57	2,891.80	27.35	7278	Upward Expansion	65	80
2025-07-25	3,470.81	2,852.73	28.93	6457	Upward Expansion	68	69
2025-07-18	3,587.55	2,812.06	37.65	64	Upward Expansion	87	76
2025-07-11	3,349.58	2,767.17	29.80	757	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-07-04	3,302.58	2,736.17	26.61	9427	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-06-27	3,467.56	2,706.73	35.92	890	Upward Expansion	82	84
2025-06-20	3,307.76	2,671.80	34.08	0	Upward Expansion	69	85
2025-06-13	3,307.76	2,642.52	33.09	10324	Upward Expansion	72	88
2025-06-06	3,357.32	2,607.75	35.36	3234	Upward Expansion	82	93
2025-05-30	3,290.59	2,571.32	34.98	261	Upward Expansion	81	92
2025-05-23	3,192.60	2,531.29	31.68	998	Upward Expansion	79	92
2025-05-16	3,144.75	2,494.52	32.56	8555	Upward Expansion	84	88
2025-05-09	3,053.46	2,459.34	33.97	6868	Upward Expansion	81	78
2025-05-02	3,026.52	2,423.40	36.60	1497	Deceleration	80	48
2025-04-25	2,550.63	2,390.50	15.02	3728	Deceleration	30	19
2025-04-18	2,446.70	2,370.29	19.58	7419	Deceleration	27	15
2025-04-11	2,623.30	2,350.05	33.77	8859	Deceleration	46	26
2025-04-04	2,296.77	2,323.92	19.13	5526	Deceleration	15	15
2025-03-28	2,719.57	2,308.68	38.26	1353	Upward Expansion	70	50
2025-03-21	2,628.58	2,281.67	37.12	28	Upward Expansion	61	51
2025-03-14	2,475.09	2,256.61	31.73	27733	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-03-07	2,518.18	2,233.33	35.15	3139	Upward Expansion	68	68
2025-02-28	2,724.57	2,207.47	49.96	23	Upward Expansion	80	93
2025-02-21	2,668.91	2,164.03	45.67	5560	Upward Expansion	77	92
2025-02-14	2,729.57	2,122.46	50.65	925	Upward Expansion	94	94
2025-02-07	2,635.08	2,078.86	51.68	10897	Upward Expansion	93	86
2025-01-31	2,595.98	2,041.57	57.34	1302	Deceleration	91	74
2025-01-24	2,277.55	2,005.59	40.67	0	Deceleration	47	49
2025-01-17	2,277.55	1,980.23	47.30	0	Deceleration	46	43
2025-01-10	2,277.55	1,954.86	51.16	0	Deceleration	45	38
2025-01-03	2,277.55	1,929.50	56.16	1036	Upward Expansion	53	55
2024-12-27	2,250.56	1,903.23	56.43	682	Upward Expansion	57	63
2024-12-20	2,240.89	1,871.69	58.04	1358	Upward Expansion	68	69
2024-12-13	2,419.52	1,840.47	67.32	0	Upward Expansion	74	90
2024-12-06	2,419.52	1,803.30	71.98	0	Upward Expansion	82	94
2024-11-29	2,419.52	1,766.13	81.28	38	Upward Expansion	92	97
2024-11-22	2,429.52	1,728.96	84.13	47784	Upward Expansion	99	100
2024-11-15	2,264.56	1,684.27	75.64	250	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-11-08	2,264.56	1,645.07	74.75	3659	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-11-01	2,089.52	1,605.88	68.65	0	Upward Expansion	76	71
2024-10-25	2,089.52	1,574.55	68.27	0	Upward Expansion	81	73
2024-10-18	2,089.52	1,543.22	67.62	62	Upward Expansion	88	76
2024-10-11	1,974.99	1,509.46	63.27	1047	Upward Expansion	71	70
2024-10-04	2,039.53	1,479.52	70.85	514	Upward Expansion	92	77
2024-09-27	1,944.35	1,447.42	65.40	805	Upward Expansion	88	75
2024-09-20	1,839.57	1,418.50	61.07	0	Upward Expansion	66	86
2024-09-13	1,839.57	1,393.07	64.34	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-09-06	1,839.57	1,367.28	70.22	14	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-08-30	1,909.03	1,334.37	73.68	2308	Upward Expansion	93	77
2024-08-23	1,876.86	1,299.15	72.16	1340	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-08-16	1,776.59	1,265.00	64.18	463	Upward Expansion	94	78
2024-08-09	1,742.46	1,234.20	66.90	3350	Upward Expansion	93	75
2024-08-02	1,421.57	1,204.53	40.60	0	Upward Expansion	53	57
2024-07-26	1,421.57	1,185.56	40.66	0	Upward Expansion	55	61
2024-07-19	1,421.57	1,166.59	40.31	3458	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-07-12	1,516.58	1,147.62	48.13	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-07-05	1,516.58	1,125.48	57.80	0	Upward Expansion	71	90
2024-06-28	1,516.58	1,103.34	60.04	0	Upward Expansion	81	73
2024-06-21	1,516.58	1,081.20	61.58	15	Upward Expansion	92	77
2024-06-14	1,516.58	1,059.07	66.00	61	Upward Expansion	98	79
2024-06-07	1,489.59	1,036.93	63.52	15	Upward Expansion	100	100
2024-05-31	1,304.39	1,015.69	39.75	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-05-24	1,304.39	998.70	40.72	0	Upward Expansion	80	93
2024-05-17	1,304.39	981.16	36.96	0	Upward Expansion	92	97
2024-05-10	1,304.39	965.83	38.09	0	Upward Expansion	94	77
2024-05-03	1,304.34	950.50	41.01	1101	Upward Expansion	95	76
2024-04-26	1,088.76	935.17	17.59	0	Upward Expansion	64	65
2024-04-19	1,088.76	927.02	22.54	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-04-12	1,088.76	918.88	21.87	304	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-04-05	1,149.64	910.73	26.18	0	Upward Expansion	92	77
2024-03-29	1,149.64	900.56	28.71	30	Upward Expansion	97	79
2024-03-22	1,076.71	890.08	23.12	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-03-15	1,076.71	882.03	24.73	0	Upward Expansion	71	90
2024-03-08	1,076.71	873.98	28.46	0	Upward Expansion	88	76
2024-03-01	1,076.71	866.36	27.97	0	Upward Expansion	97	99
2024-02-23	1,076.71	858.87	26.35	1640	Upward Expansion	96	99
2024-02-16	1,065.60	847.64	24.81	20	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-02-09	852.48	836.77	0.14	0	Upward Expansion	93	98
2024-02-02	852.43	833.01	-1.31	0	Upward Expansion	53	68
2024-01-26	852.43	829.25	1.19	0	Deceleration	53	54
2024-01-19	852.43	825.49	3.95	0	Deceleration	49	40
2024-01-12	852.43	821.73	3.89	0	Deceleration	51	44
2024-01-05	852.43	817.97	3.01	0	Upward Expansion	58	50
2023-12-29	852.43	814.21	0.98	0	Upward Expansion	60	55
2023-12-22	852.43	810.45	1.06	0	Upward Expansion	63	64
2023-12-15	852.43	806.70	1.42	0	Upward Expansion	66	85
2023-12-08	852.43	802.94	6.52	0	Upward Expansion	65	87
2023-12-01	852.43	799.18	7.64	0	Upward Expansion	72	73
2023-11-24	852.43	795.42	9.82	0	Deceleration	81	73
2023-11-17	852.43	791.66	10.63	0	Deceleration	61	43
2023-11-10	852.43	787.89	14.01	36	Deceleration	55	46
2023-11-03	794.65	784.13	6.63	1883	Rotation Down	-2	43
2023-10-27	778.27	782.30	9.55	716	Rotation Down	12	22
2023-10-20	844.43	781.01	20.80	0	Upward Expansion	65	65
2023-10-13	844.43	777.52	18.47	0	Upward Expansion	67	67
2023-10-06	844.43	774.02	18.01	0	Upward Expansion	67	68

Price vs TrendBelow-7.9%

Trend directionRising+4.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+51.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-43.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+0.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-15.7%

Price momentumNegative-2.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.05×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-40 / ±100

-56.3 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

78 /100

+62.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HWM Directional State ↗ HWM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion28

Deceleration43

Rotation Down74

Downward Expansion67

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Upward Expansion 79%Deceleration 18%Rotation Down 3%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-09-25	New	+3.5%
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-09-04	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-08-28	Established	+8.7%
Deceleration	2026-04-10	2026-04-17	New	+1.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-04-03	Established	+14.5%
Deceleration	2025-12-12	2026-01-02	New	+5.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-03	2025-12-05	Developing	-2.8%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-09-26	Developing	+8.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-08-15	Established	+5.9%
Deceleration	2025-04-04	2025-05-02	Developing	+31.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-28	Developing	+3.2%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-01-31	New	+14.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-02	2025-01-03	Extended	+167.2%
Deceleration	2024-01-12	2024-01-26	New	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution63

Stage 4 · Declining54

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 62/100
Current Relative Strength: 0.76
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -2.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +0.2%
Industrials regime cohort: 71th percentile14 in cohort

Test HWM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.38×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.05×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HWM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 4,083.53falling

Slow Activity MXN 4,498.46falling

Trend Reference MXN 4,472.46-7.9% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 2,720.07+51.5% close margin

Structural low MXN 3,850.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +4.2%

Annualized volatility +32.4%

From structural high -17.8%

From structural low +19.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	+4.8%-15.1% to +22.6%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+2.5%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	3	+9.5%-2.3% to +21.2%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+2.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+26.6%+1.4% to +39.9%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+21.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+94.2%+19.8% to +168.5%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+93.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HWM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map