Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

NVX Stage Analysis

NOVONIX Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.093Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -76−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 90/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -82.2%AUD 0.5233 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.093	0.1863	-68.05	19102414	Downward Expansion	-76	90
2026-10-02	0.094	0.1927	-68.93	19771615	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2026-09-25	0.098	0.2003	-68.28	22439000	Downward Expansion	-80	93
2026-09-18	0.10	0.2088	-68.50	40988698	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2026-09-11	0.105	0.2167	-67.67	37439589	Downward Expansion	-84	90
2026-09-04	0.11	0.2242	-67.79	1804293	Downward Expansion	-89	91
2026-08-28	0.125	0.2317	-64.51	3626198	Downward Expansion	-82	75
2026-08-21	0.135	0.2402	-62.45	4150435	Downward Expansion	-78	70
2026-08-14	0.15	0.2495	-59.44	4793768	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2026-08-07	0.145	0.2587	-62.10	792261	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2026-07-31	0.145	0.2727	-61.51	3125729	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2026-07-24	0.145	0.2817	-61.21	1458961	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2026-07-17	0.15	0.2912	-60.83	5413027	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2026-07-10	0.155	0.30	-60.35	1318660	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2026-07-03	0.155	0.3088	-61.01	1765754	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2026-06-26	0.15	0.3182	-62.40	4112355	Downward Expansion	-89	92
2026-06-19	0.175	0.3287	-57.00	6980827	Downward Expansion	-86	66
2026-06-12	0.235	0.3365	-42.73	1817777	Downward Expansion	-66	53
2026-06-05	0.24	0.3438	-40.82	13459565	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2026-05-29	0.255	0.3513	-38.43	1147808	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2026-05-22	0.25	0.362	-39.62	10760786	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2026-05-15	0.23	0.3768	-44.93	14848028	Downward Expansion	-79	66
2026-05-08	0.255	0.3942	-40.67	11367744	Downward Expansion	-71	59
2026-05-01	0.27	0.4113	-37.85	15434326	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2026-04-24	0.265	0.4182	-39.90	14890196	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2026-04-17	0.285	0.4235	-37.13	15263259	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2026-04-10	0.285	0.4293	-37.68	12538285	Downward Expansion	-67	77
2026-04-03	0.255	0.4352	-42.11	8767664	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2026-03-27	0.27	0.4428	-38.80	10526079	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2026-03-20	0.265	0.4528	-39.94	14260364	Downward Expansion	-80	72
2026-03-13	0.285	0.4622	-37.53	19334042	Downward Expansion	-79	74
2026-03-06	0.32	0.4688	-32.33	14748055	Downward Expansion	-72	80
2026-02-27	0.355	0.473	-28.18	11226781	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2026-02-20	0.335	0.4755	-31.67	12961310	Downward Expansion	-72	84
2026-02-13	0.33	0.4828	-32.10	22287627	Downward Expansion	-75	82
2026-02-06	0.335	0.49	-30.07	27137185	Downward Expansion	-80	76
2026-01-30	0.38	0.492	-22.89	20799929	Downward Expansion	-66	39
2026-01-23	0.415	0.493	-16.33	29249175	Balance	-47	22
2026-01-16	0.425	0.4925	-15.36	47450521	Balance	-44	20
2026-01-09	0.565	0.4915	13.62	65300217	Deceleration	5	8
2026-01-02	0.415	0.4863	-17.23	13618158	Deceleration	-29	26
2025-12-26	0.43	0.4865	-15.89	10822282	Rotation Down	-28	26
2025-12-19	0.415	0.4862	-18.44	20341505	Rotation Down	-23	29
2025-12-12	0.42	0.4885	-19.01	13038006	Rotation Down	-23	39
2025-12-05	0.435	0.493	-16.18	19675999	Deceleration	-20	30
2025-11-28	0.465	0.4952	-11.01	16754048	Deceleration	-15	27
2025-11-21	0.41	0.4942	-20.55	30889380	Upward Expansion	-15	26
2025-11-14	0.455	0.4952	-15.10	27025845	Upward Expansion	16	14
2025-11-07	0.465	0.4933	-15.66	46909653	Upward Expansion	40	30
2025-10-31	0.575	0.49	1.92	58632310	Upward Expansion	60	72
2025-10-24	0.695	0.4845	20.58	63611195	Upward Expansion	63	76
2025-10-17	0.75	0.4773	29.67	220164242	Upward Expansion	75	74
2025-10-10	0.77	0.4688	33.25	164854853	Upward Expansion	74	53
2025-10-03	0.475	0.4583	-18.48	64366725	Balance	2	11
2025-09-26	0.425	0.4563	-26.27	34828256	Balance	12	14
2025-09-19	0.46	0.4562	-20.95	48929676	Upward Expansion	31	16
2025-09-12	0.46	0.4585	-22.06	28002404	Upward Expansion	46	35
2025-09-05	0.485	0.4612	-18.33	31332260	Upward Expansion	51	48
2025-08-29	0.57	0.4642	-5.47	35873109	Balance	68	56
2025-08-22	0.545	0.4635	-9.88	34638986	Balance	35	21
2025-08-15	0.485	0.4645	-19.89	29165801	Balance	19	18
2025-08-08	0.445	0.4708	-25.87	17496896	Balance	6	17
2025-08-01	0.43	0.4798	-27.75	22311625	Balance	1	14
2025-07-25	0.555	0.4913	-7.74	52854198	Balance	8	18
2025-07-18	0.545	0.496	-11.03	45545499	Downward Expansion	-9	6
2025-07-11	0.395	0.4993	-34.64	15961425	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2025-07-04	0.41	0.5063	-33.11	21199713	Downward Expansion	-57	53
2025-06-27	0.40	0.515	-34.81	17033245	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2025-06-20	0.395	0.5263	-36.31	10053841	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-06-13	0.41	0.5378	-34.81	12763342	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2025-06-06	0.42	0.5502	-33.57	14858471	Downward Expansion	-44	22
2025-05-30	0.42	0.5602	-33.62	14490477	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-05-23	0.485	0.5692	-23.45	29195355	Downward Expansion	-25	22
2025-05-16	0.555	0.5797	-13.26	28808799	Downward Expansion	-18	19
2025-05-09	0.50	0.5872	-21.69	16737477	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2025-05-02	0.435	0.5987	-32.74	14883102	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2025-04-25	0.44	0.6093	-30.62	11342049	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2025-04-18	0.40	0.6183	-36.57	13169790	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2025-04-11	0.365	0.6228	-41.68	26900560	Downward Expansion	-79	62
2025-04-04	0.41	0.6298	-36.11	11209078	Downward Expansion	-73	57
2025-03-28	0.48	0.6343	-29.39	16286957	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2025-03-21	0.495	0.6388	-27.51	28963739	Downward Expansion	-65	78
2025-03-14	0.455	0.6427	-32.92	19519445	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2025-03-07	0.415	0.6478	-40.95	20893959	Downward Expansion	-82	87
2025-02-28	0.42	0.6545	-42.71	25861632	Downward Expansion	-86	85
2025-02-21	0.53	0.6633	-29.85	19065827	Downward Expansion	-68	70
2025-02-14	0.54	0.67	-31.36	19509821	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2025-02-07	0.575	0.6752	-27.24	23568831	Balance	-58	60
2025-01-31	0.55	0.6795	-30.89	29818787	Balance	-27	41
2025-01-24	0.575	0.6847	-26.79	39516033	Balance	-22	11
2025-01-17	0.675	0.6892	-13.11	28364298	Balance	23	13
2025-01-10	0.715	0.6877	-7.79	29734528	Balance	28	13
2025-01-03	0.775	0.685	0.44	25477911	Balance	25	13
2024-12-27	0.695	0.6827	-10.01	13245763	Balance	-11	16
2024-12-20	0.645	0.6825	-14.69	37081895	Balance	-12	15
2024-12-13	0.605	0.688	-22.30	29178811	Balance	-8	11
2024-12-06	0.67	0.6972	-15.53	19372452	Balance	25	12
2024-11-29	0.74	0.7032	-7.14	56981096	Balance	9	9
2024-11-22	0.74	0.7062	-6.85	15772290	Balance	11	8
2024-11-15	0.78	0.7093	-0.74	20424394	Balance	31	20
2024-11-08	0.72	0.712	-8.67	8878270	Rotation Up	25	21
2024-11-01	0.69	0.7253	-10.90	9378935	Rotation Up	23	34
2024-10-25	0.80	0.736	1.73	9010232	Rotation Up	28	40
2024-10-18	0.78	0.738	-1.85	10193927	Rotation Up	25	38
2024-10-11	0.845	0.7413	7.20	21772069	Downward Expansion	18	30
2024-10-04	0.755	0.746	-3.33	18755761	Downward Expansion	-13	14
2024-09-27	0.71	0.7518	-9.91	14891746	Downward Expansion	-49	41
2024-09-20	0.535	0.7598	-32.51	4935226	Downward Expansion	-77	80
2024-09-13	0.575	0.77	-27.28	4611120	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2024-09-06	0.545	0.7788	-31.13	3736049	Downward Expansion	-83	87
2024-08-30	0.615	0.7835	-23.69	4394853	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2024-08-23	0.61	0.7812	-24.41	4496323	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2024-08-16	0.61	0.7792	-25.02	3415403	Downward Expansion	-71	62
2024-08-09	0.615	0.779	-23.44	8149921	Downward Expansion	-71	49
2024-08-02	0.685	0.7805	-17.18	3967079	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2024-07-26	0.73	0.7805	-12.21	3048564	Deceleration	-42	28
2024-07-19	0.695	0.7807	-17.48	3519879	Deceleration	-19	22
2024-07-12	0.705	0.7793	-16.84	3153084	Rotation Down	-30	30
2024-07-05	0.705	0.7782	-16.22	3796214	Rotation Down	-33	47
2024-06-28	0.71	0.7772	-15.71	14616163	Rotation Down	-26	51
2024-06-21	0.63	0.7763	-26.08	4748957	Rotation Down	-36	63
2024-06-14	0.635	0.7785	-25.53	4441992	Rotation Down	-37	57
2024-06-07	0.705	0.7818	-19.84	10967391	Balance	-26	35
2024-05-31	0.69	0.7827	-20.70	12111024	Balance	-10	17
2024-05-24	0.81	0.7842	-7.94	7198919	Balance	20	16
2024-05-17	0.88	0.7813	-1.50	10308973	Balance	28	20
2024-05-10	0.85	0.7738	-4.53	6810633	Upward Expansion	30	23
2024-05-03	0.83	0.7682	-5.85	10249290	Upward Expansion	37	21
2024-04-26	0.835	0.7637	-5.02	11468311	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-04-19	0.86	0.7633	-2.46	17265326	Upward Expansion	57	40
2024-04-12	1.12	0.763	23.00	17281841	Upward Expansion	79	56
2024-04-05	1.01	0.7572	11.13	14675276	Upward Expansion	74	52
2024-03-29	0.86	0.7502	-7.23	7258262	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-03-22	0.88	0.7523	-4.58	13674413	Rotation Up	64	73
2024-03-15	0.985	0.7593	7.29	24405582	Rotation Up	48	72
2024-03-08	0.93	0.7598	-2.05	17526620	Rotation Up	45	60
2024-03-01	0.95	0.759	-0.17	17017100	Balance	43	47
2024-02-23	0.84	0.7592	-11.66	17807187	Balance	12	24
2024-02-16	0.84	0.7625	-13.21	19860465	Downward Expansion	-9	9
2024-02-09	0.685	0.7667	-30.11	15137993	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2024-02-02	0.545	0.779	-45.84	5852167	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2024-01-26	0.55	0.7925	-45.71	7069945	Downward Expansion	-83	76
2024-01-19	0.605	0.807	-40.63	4534913	Downward Expansion	-72	45
2024-01-12	0.66	0.8192	-37.24	4602327	Downward Expansion	-63	39
2024-01-05	0.685	0.836	-36.10	6888663	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2023-12-29	0.735	0.8478	-33.53	8955340	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2023-12-22	0.655	0.8555	-40.94	7797959	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2023-12-15	0.67	0.8645	-40.14	8112205	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2023-12-08	0.675	0.8767	-38.87	7647078	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2023-12-01	0.685	0.889	-38.09	5118687	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2023-11-24	0.695	0.8985	-38.59	11330527	Downward Expansion	-48	32
2023-11-17	0.735	0.9082	-36.80	9659965	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2023-11-10	0.73	0.9165	-38.29	10543870	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2023-11-03	0.735	0.9275	-39.65	21873879	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2023-10-27	0.725	0.9402	-40.92	22863909	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2023-10-20	0.655	0.9582	-48.79	12831633	Downward Expansion	-74	79

Price vs TrendBelow-50.1%

Trend directionFalling-31.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-82.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-8.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-68.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-7.7%

Price momentumNegative-67.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.03×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-76 / ±100

+8.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

90 /100

+0.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NVX Directional State ↗ NVX Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance1

Rotation Up27

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down67

Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 11%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 57%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-10-09	Extended	-75.5%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-01-23	New	-2.4%
Deceleration	2026-01-02	2026-01-09	New	+36.1%
Rotation Down	2025-12-12	2025-12-26	New	+2.4%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2025-12-05	New	-6.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-11-21	Developing	-46.8%
Balance	2025-09-26	2025-10-03	New	+11.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-09-19	New	-5.2%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-08-29	Developing	+2.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-07-18	Established	+0.9%
Balance	2024-11-15	2025-02-07	Established	-26.3%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	-7.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-02	2024-10-11	Developing	+23.4%
Deceleration	2024-07-19	2024-07-26	New	+5.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing56

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution14

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -68.05
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -67.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -64.6%
Industrials regime cohort: 97th percentile38 in cohort

Test NVX trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.95×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.03×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NVX Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.096falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.1506falling

Trend Reference AUD 0.1863-50.1% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.5233-82.2% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.091shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +13.2%

Annualized volatility +52.5%

From structural high -90.8%

From structural low +2.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	43	-7.6%-34.6% to +44.4%	+23.3%	+74.4%	-7.3%	+90.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-16.2%-65.2% to +17.0%	+23.1%	+76.9%	-19.7%	+76.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-28.1%-72.5% to +4.2%	+14.3%	+85.7%	-33.0%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-37.2%-80.3% to -32.0%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-46.3%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NVX Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map