Weekly structural research · MIL · Technology

MPT Stage Analysis

Impianti S.P.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 0.942Tenure NewBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 26−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 15/100directional strength

Maturity 48/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +34.5%EUR 0.7002 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.942	0.9282	-2.68	6000	Deceleration	26	15
2026-10-02	0.968	0.9238	-2.01	64500	Deceleration	36	20
2026-09-25	1.06	0.9172	3.45	319500	Upward Expansion	53	27
2026-09-18	0.99	0.9091	-2.92	37500	Upward Expansion	46	34
2026-09-11	0.95	0.9041	-9.31	84000	Upward Expansion	61	69
2026-09-04	0.98	0.8996	-6.34	60000	Upward Expansion	64	82
2026-08-28	1.12	0.8949	5.60	3000	Upward Expansion	83	89
2026-08-21	1.11	0.8861	4.43	64500	Upward Expansion	84	77
2026-08-14	1.06	0.8781	-1.82	21000	Deceleration	79	53
2026-08-07	0.90	0.8737	-17.12	3000	Deceleration	34	19
2026-07-31	0.894	0.8769	-15.89	3000	Deceleration	36	19
2026-07-24	0.948	0.8774	-10.99	0	Upward Expansion	49	26
2026-07-17	0.886	0.8765	-17.65	6000	Upward Expansion	43	28
2026-07-10	0.916	0.8786	-16.85	0	Rotation Up	59	62
2026-07-03	0.916	0.8801	-18.11	1500	Rotation Up	35	62
2026-06-26	0.976	0.8839	-11.21	0	Rotation Up	41	66
2026-06-19	0.95	0.8864	-17.16	9000	Rotation Up	25	44
2026-06-12	0.996	0.8904	-12.01	31500	Downward Expansion	27	24
2026-06-05	0.94	0.8935	-14.93	144000	Downward Expansion	-15	7
2026-05-29	0.84	0.8918	-24.72	70500	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2026-05-22	0.77	0.8952	-30.84	31500	Downward Expansion	-64	49
2026-05-15	0.796	0.9012	-28.72	52500	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2026-05-08	0.80	0.9075	-29.15	70500	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2026-05-01	0.832	0.9155	-25.34	1500	Downward Expansion	-53	42
2026-04-24	0.83	0.9224	-25.46	31500	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2026-04-17	0.832	0.9327	-27.93	24000	Downward Expansion	-41	21
2026-04-10	0.82	0.944	-28.36	55500	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-04-03	0.91	0.9523	-18.39	93000	Downward Expansion	-25	22
2026-03-27	0.90	0.9535	-16.10	75000	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2026-03-20	1.02	0.9552	-5.12	493500	Downward Expansion	-16	15
2026-03-13	0.81	0.9492	-27.59	130500	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2026-03-06	0.77	0.9552	-31.25	79500	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2026-02-27	0.81	0.9642	-32.28	36000	Downward Expansion	-73	83
2026-02-20	0.84	0.9728	-28.40	18000	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2026-02-13	0.815	0.9822	-28.63	28500	Downward Expansion	-77	83
2026-02-06	0.84	0.992	-26.74	25500	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2026-01-30	0.855	1.00	-24.25	28500	Downward Expansion	-70	47
2026-01-23	0.87	1.02	-21.07	55500	Downward Expansion	-70	50
2026-01-16	0.93	1.03	-16.59	45000	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2026-01-09	0.995	1.04	-9.65	40500	Downward Expansion	-54	52
2026-01-02	0.91	1.05	-15.77	21000	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2025-12-26	0.92	1.05	-12.50	25500	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2025-12-19	0.95	1.06	-8.98	37500	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2025-12-12	0.96	1.06	-4.36	39000	Downward Expansion	-35	16
2025-12-05	1.03	1.06	4.05	42000	Downward Expansion	-22	17
2025-11-28	1.05	1.06	7.74	43500	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2025-11-21	1.07	1.07	13.25	63000	Downward Expansion	-29	15
2025-11-14	1.09	1.07	13.62	694500	Downward Expansion	-42	33
2025-11-07	0.89	1.08	-3.43	39000	Downward Expansion	-68	62
2025-10-31	0.94	1.10	2.57	21000	Balance	-60	50
2025-10-24	0.95	1.10	6.70	43500	Balance	-58	38
2025-10-17	0.985	1.12	14.09	97500	Balance	-42	18
2025-10-10	1.04	1.13	21.40	193500	Balance	-26	20
2025-10-03	1.04	1.13	19.88	306000	Balance	-23	22
2025-09-26	1.14	1.12	35.31	522000	Balance	-16	18
2025-09-19	1.17	1.09	42.55	1212000	Rotation Down	7	8
2025-09-12	1.07	1.07	32.05	316500	Rotation Down	-29	40
2025-09-05	0.945	1.05	21.31	24000	Rotation Down	-34	58
2025-08-29	0.95	1.03	22.02	489000	Rotation Down	-34	58
2025-08-22	0.84	1.00	6.62	184500	Balance	-46	60
2025-08-15	0.99	0.9843	28.93	37500	Balance	-7	20
2025-08-08	1.04	0.9597	40.74	52500	Balance	3	14
2025-08-01	1.07	0.9336	53.32	45000	Balance	15	12
2025-07-25	1.12	0.9066	60.24	48000	Upward Expansion	37	22
2025-07-18	1.11	0.8779	63.59	118500	Upward Expansion	51	34
2025-07-11	1.20	0.85	81.47	142500	Upward Expansion	55	57
2025-07-04	1.23	0.8189	92.62	183000	Upward Expansion	55	53
2025-06-27	1.29	0.7865	106.55	408000	Deceleration	60	45
2025-06-20	1.28	0.7513	113.09	1012500	Deceleration	58	34
2025-06-13	1.10	0.7168	87.51	219000	Deceleration	33	20
2025-06-06	1.09	0.6888	84.55	33000	Deceleration	33	18
2025-05-30	1.06	0.6613	85.75	159000	Deceleration	34	19
2025-05-23	1.13	0.6349	105.45	733500	Deceleration	38	23
2025-05-16	1.02	0.6062	84.39	315000	Deceleration	41	26
2025-05-09	1.03	0.5815	95.55	240000	Upward Expansion	46	37
2025-05-02	1.19	0.5565	137.65	166500	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-04-25	1.15	0.5263	144.07	450000	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-04-18	1.40	0.4974	220.77	630000	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-04-11	1.29	0.4607	229.75	528000	Upward Expansion	68	68
2025-04-04	1.21	0.4276	219.99	622500	Upward Expansion	68	69
2025-03-28	1.54	0.3968	281.90	1426500	Upward Expansion	98	95
2025-03-21	1.23	0.3557	220.36	2218500	Upward Expansion	98	96
2025-03-14	0.955	0.3254	161.52	2548500	Upward Expansion	100	100
2025-03-07	0.61	0.3049	71.58	1584000	Upward Expansion	97	99
2025-02-28	0.48	0.2956	35.64	682500	Rotation Up	89	96
2025-02-21	0.478	0.291	35.85	1408500	Rotation Up	66	87
2025-02-14	0.40	0.2867	14.76	1143000	Rotation Up	51	67
2025-02-07	0.296	0.2851	-13.45	301500	Balance	6	15
2025-01-31	0.294	0.2867	-13.64	166500	Downward Expansion	-2	6
2025-01-24	0.246	0.2885	-28.04	25500	Downward Expansion	-67	46
2025-01-17	0.252	0.2929	-27.60	24000	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2025-01-10	0.258	0.2955	-24.61	33000	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-01-03	0.258	0.2987	-23.81	33000	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2024-12-27	0.26	0.3025	-24.44	25500	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2024-12-20	0.272	0.3061	-21.36	66000	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2024-12-13	0.268	0.3104	-26.31	121500	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2024-12-06	0.258	0.3171	-29.86	57000	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-11-29	0.234	0.3199	-34.85	127500	Downward Expansion	-82	86
2024-11-22	0.246	0.3207	-32.40	63000	Downward Expansion	-78	79
2024-11-15	0.258	0.3189	-31.32	16500	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2024-11-08	0.266	0.317	-29.10	30000	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2024-11-01	0.268	0.3167	-31.19	19500	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2024-10-25	0.27	0.3176	-32.00	27000	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2024-10-18	0.278	0.3201	-32.10	21000	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-10-11	0.28	0.3238	-31.31	15000	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2024-10-04	0.284	0.3286	-30.20	121500	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2024-09-27	0.284	0.3334	-33.91	162000	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2024-09-20	0.298	0.3377	-30.36	73500	Downward Expansion	-58	59
2024-09-13	0.296	0.3425	-32.39	64500	Downward Expansion	-54	58
2024-09-06	0.286	0.3466	-35.99	324000	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-08-30	0.308	0.351	-35.29	237000	Balance	-53	47
2024-08-23	0.322	0.3548	-32.93	76500	Balance	-45	34
2024-08-16	0.34	0.359	-29.89	70500	Balance	-43	22
2024-08-09	0.33	0.3629	-31.10	91500	Balance	-38	19
2024-08-02	0.342	0.3683	-30.94	64500	Balance	-30	15
2024-07-26	0.348	0.3726	-35.13	114000	Balance	-28	14
2024-07-19	0.352	0.3776	-36.69	52500	Balance	-26	12
2024-07-12	0.346	0.3836	-39.98	159000	Balance	-27	15
2024-07-05	0.346	0.3883	-40.38	235500	Balance	-27	15
2024-06-28	0.38	0.3929	-34.68	133500	Balance	-18	10
2024-06-21	0.33	—	—	51000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-06-14	0.354	—	—	36000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-06-07	0.37	—	—	150000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-05-31	0.37	—	—	228000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-05-24	0.40	—	—	295500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-05-17	0.47	—	—	1167000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-05-10	0.34	—	—	643500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-05-03	0.26	—	—	546000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-04-26	0.19	—	—	325500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-04-19	0.202	—	—	436500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-04-12	0.256	—	—	243000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-04-05	0.296	—	—	144000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-29	0.345	—	—	133500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-22	0.388	—	—	202500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-15	0.424	—	—	37500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-08	0.428	—	—	58500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-01	0.415	—	—	51000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-23	0.44	—	—	66000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-16	0.42	—	—	19500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-09	0.419	—	—	90000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-02	0.421	—	—	61500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-26	0.449	—	—	108000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-19	0.455	—	—	85500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-12	0.493	—	—	433500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-05	0.47	—	—	64500	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-29	0.50	—	—	84000	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-22	0.53	—	—	597000	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-15	0.488	—	—	448500	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-08	0.483	—	—	240000	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-01	0.389	—	—	64500	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-24	0.405	—	—	456000	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-17	0.387	—	—	235500	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-10	0.427	—	—	58500	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-03	0.50	—	—	21000	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-27	0.514	—	—	21000	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-20	0.572	—	—	79500	Not yet classified	—	—

Price vs TrendAbove+1.5%

Trend directionRising+5.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+34.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-2.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+14.2%

Price momentumPositive+14.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.01×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

26 / ±100

-35.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

15 /100

-54.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MPT Directional State ↗ MPT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion54

Deceleration91

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion20

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 120 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 18%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 45%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	-2.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	-5.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-14	New	+18.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-07-24	New	+7.0%
Rotation Up	2026-06-19	2026-07-10	New	-3.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-07	2026-06-12	Extended	+11.9%
Balance	2025-09-26	2025-10-31	Developing	-17.5%
Rotation Down	2025-08-29	2025-09-19	New	+23.2%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-08-22	New	-21.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-07-25	New	-8.9%
Deceleration	2025-05-16	2025-06-27	Developing	+26.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-05-09	Developing	+68.9%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-02-28	New	+20.0%
Balance	2025-02-07	2025-02-07	New	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing76

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining24

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 50/100
Current Relative Strength: -2.68
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +14.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +10.4%
Technology regime cohort: 29th percentile7 in cohort

Test MPT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.13×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.01×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MPT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 0.9785falling

Slow Activity EUR 0.9569rising

Trend Reference EUR 0.9282+1.5% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 0.7002+34.5% close margin

Structural low EUR 0.75shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +8.4%

Annualized volatility +45.5%

From structural high -21.5%

From structural low +32.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+9.1%+7.8% to +25.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+10.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	1	-2.9%-2.9% to -2.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-7.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	+6.9%+6.9% to +6.9%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-1.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-22.0%-22.0% to -22.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-42.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MPT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map