Weekly structural research · MIL · Technology

MAPS Stage Analysis

Maps S.p.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 2.37Tenure NewBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 81/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -18.3%EUR 2.90 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	2.37	2.57	-18.14	55506	Rotation Down	-52	81
2026-10-02	2.35	2.56	-20.85	58650	Rotation Down	-53	78
2026-09-25	2.40	2.57	-22.08	86601	Deceleration	-53	73
2026-09-18	2.53	2.57	-18.12	198893	Deceleration	-17	35
2026-09-11	2.63	2.57	-17.26	34982	Upward Expansion	8	24
2026-09-04	2.54	2.58	-20.20	8500	Upward Expansion	4	14
2026-08-28	2.62	2.59	-19.31	6130	Upward Expansion	35	21
2026-08-21	2.70	2.61	-17.69	2950	Upward Expansion	44	35
2026-08-14	2.76	2.62	-17.99	1362	Rotation Up	54	45
2026-08-07	2.71	2.63	-20.33	1000	Rotation Up	17	22
2026-07-31	2.71	2.64	-18.76	3500	Rotation Up	28	29
2026-07-24	2.73	2.65	-18.41	3630	Rotation Up	31	30
2026-07-17	2.71	2.66	-19.90	6200	Rotation Up	30	31
2026-07-10	2.76	2.67	-20.32	4173	Rotation Up	27	52
2026-07-03	2.70	2.69	-23.10	12541	Rotation Up	22	49
2026-06-26	2.70	2.70	-21.59	3976	Downward Expansion	21	44
2026-06-19	2.80	2.72	-21.91	15491	Downward Expansion	15	31
2026-06-12	2.80	2.74	-20.70	58055	Downward Expansion	10	19
2026-06-05	2.53	2.75	-26.81	3030	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2026-05-29	2.53	2.78	-27.79	21083	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2026-05-22	2.49	2.80	-28.91	24501	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2026-05-15	2.38	2.83	-32.23	52057	Downward Expansion	-62	44
2026-05-08	2.37	2.86	-33.48	51905	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2026-05-01	2.41	2.89	-31.68	25902	Downward Expansion	-50	37
2026-04-24	2.56	2.92	-27.32	35289	Downward Expansion	-47	40
2026-04-17	2.53	2.94	-30.58	66735	Downward Expansion	-51	48
2026-04-10	2.46	2.97	-31.39	188952	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2026-04-03	2.36	3.00	-32.06	48880	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2026-03-27	2.43	3.04	-27.15	57562	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-03-20	2.41	3.07	-27.39	56196	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2026-03-13	2.32	3.10	-32.94	32689	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-03-06	2.38	3.13	-31.44	58592	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2026-02-27	2.56	3.17	-31.48	31902	Downward Expansion	-84	85
2026-02-20	2.62	3.20	-29.19	69512	Downward Expansion	-86	77
2026-02-13	2.83	3.22	-22.17	36381	Downward Expansion	-76	62
2026-02-06	2.97	3.24	-19.57	9458	Downward Expansion	-64	48
2026-01-30	2.96	3.26	-19.69	13565	Downward Expansion	-68	51
2026-01-23	2.98	3.28	-18.38	23109	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2026-01-16	3.06	3.29	-18.35	60145	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2026-01-09	3.07	3.31	-18.28	68184	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2026-01-02	3.05	3.33	-18.59	90536	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2025-12-26	3.08	3.35	-16.81	11432	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2025-12-19	3.10	3.36	-17.01	62767	Downward Expansion	-62	37
2025-12-12	3.17	3.38	-13.21	71808	Downward Expansion	-56	31
2025-12-05	3.20	3.39	-12.70	411464	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2025-11-28	3.29	3.40	-10.35	3050	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2025-11-21	3.26	3.41	-9.91	10419	Downward Expansion	-52	35
2025-11-14	3.20	3.41	-14.39	11808	Downward Expansion	-64	45
2025-11-07	3.28	3.42	-10.21	10510	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2025-10-31	3.30	3.41	-10.34	14622	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-10-24	3.25	3.41	-10.31	13507	Downward Expansion	-60	35
2025-10-17	3.32	3.41	-6.83	12765	Downward Expansion	-53	39
2025-10-10	3.35	3.41	-6.55	266519	Rotation Down	-55	42
2025-10-03	3.30	3.41	-10.39	35729	Rotation Down	-31	37
2025-09-26	3.21	3.40	-11.54	33239	Deceleration	-47	44
2025-09-19	3.36	3.40	-6.60	30159	Deceleration	-28	26
2025-09-12	3.38	3.38	-6.41	11503	Deceleration	-15	24
2025-09-05	3.37	3.38	-4.32	10753	Deceleration	-17	31
2025-08-29	3.35	3.38	-6.08	8980	Deceleration	-1	22
2025-08-22	3.40	3.38	-6.99	11170	Deceleration	9	17
2025-08-15	3.34	3.37	-7.11	27587	Deceleration	-0	9
2025-08-08	3.44	3.36	-1.90	21412	Deceleration	15	12
2025-08-01	3.43	3.35	2.04	11635	Deceleration	16	14
2025-07-25	3.45	3.33	0.86	30610	Deceleration	26	19
2025-07-18	3.43	3.32	1.54	31920	Deceleration	29	20
2025-07-11	3.43	3.32	2.45	34176	Deceleration	35	21
2025-07-04	3.45	3.31	4.57	39721	Deceleration	40	26
2025-06-27	3.50	3.30	6.08	24567	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-06-20	3.54	3.28	8.98	124193	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-06-13	3.62	3.25	11.23	25136	Upward Expansion	63	47
2025-06-06	3.61	3.22	8.02	26623	Upward Expansion	66	64
2025-05-30	3.53	3.20	7.30	24931	Upward Expansion	62	68
2025-05-23	3.54	3.17	9.45	29745	Upward Expansion	64	74
2025-05-16	3.64	3.14	9.47	27214	Upward Expansion	76	76
2025-05-09	3.58	3.11	11.34	46751	Upward Expansion	73	64
2025-05-02	3.50	3.08	11.93	30908	Upward Expansion	70	41
2025-04-25	3.31	3.04	9.22	22836	Upward Expansion	54	26
2025-04-18	3.24	3.01	11.44	33852	Upward Expansion	48	28
2025-04-11	3.20	2.99	16.96	113216	Upward Expansion	50	34
2025-04-04	3.17	2.96	14.41	194387	Upward Expansion	52	43
2025-03-28	3.35	2.93	8.53	114624	Upward Expansion	62	49
2025-03-21	3.38	2.91	8.78	107596	Upward Expansion	67	36
2025-03-14	3.14	2.87	2.03	30151	Upward Expansion	32	19
2025-03-07	3.12	2.85	1.40	98161	Upward Expansion	36	18
2025-02-28	3.06	2.83	-0.93	40582	Upward Expansion	41	25
2025-02-21	3.01	2.81	-2.27	77617	Upward Expansion	56	39
2025-02-14	3.25	2.80	6.33	35559	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-02-07	3.30	2.77	10.30	63441	Upward Expansion	68	51
2025-01-31	3.30	2.74	11.83	102755	Upward Expansion	72	49
2025-01-24	3.12	2.72	6.28	26623	Upward Expansion	49	38
2025-01-17	3.08	2.70	4.33	38334	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-01-10	3.08	2.68	7.45	42945	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-01-03	3.06	2.66	9.40	433699	Upward Expansion	66	71
2024-12-27	3.18	2.65	13.25	8991	Upward Expansion	70	87
2024-12-20	3.17	2.64	13.95	95078	Upward Expansion	73	86
2024-12-13	3.37	2.63	17.10	171172	Upward Expansion	93	92
2024-12-06	3.02	2.61	5.35	159217	Rotation Up	83	73
2024-11-29	2.84	2.61	2.81	32728	Rotation Up	43	60
2024-11-22	2.80	2.59	0.87	25461	Rotation Up	40	62
2024-11-15	2.76	2.58	-2.64	54344	Rotation Up	36	63
2024-11-08	2.83	2.57	0.89	86908	Rotation Up	51	69
2024-11-01	2.72	2.55	-5.49	84146	Rotation Up	31	52
2024-10-25	2.73	2.55	-5.62	176897	Balance	33	34
2024-10-18	2.66	2.55	-9.48	217598	Balance	5	15
2024-10-11	2.51	2.56	-12.71	83333	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2024-10-04	2.49	2.58	-11.93	57959	Downward Expansion	-51	34
2024-09-27	2.50	2.60	-14.85	155774	Downward Expansion	-55	42
2024-09-20	2.37	2.62	-17.38	32384	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2024-09-13	2.33	2.64	-18.90	21333	Downward Expansion	-74	52
2024-09-06	2.49	2.67	-13.26	5095	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2024-08-30	2.50	2.69	-16.29	14381	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-08-23	2.45	2.70	-16.82	29165	Downward Expansion	-59	39
2024-08-16	2.49	2.73	-14.65	6303	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-08-09	2.48	2.74	-12.32	13257	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2024-08-02	2.48	2.76	-13.65	25829	Downward Expansion	-57	37
2024-07-26	2.52	2.79	-17.57	102657	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-07-19	2.45	2.81	-21.39	15418	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2024-07-12	2.48	2.82	-21.93	9555	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2024-07-05	2.52	2.84	-20.04	35039	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2024-06-28	2.54	2.85	-18.14	93298	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2024-06-21	2.52	2.86	-19.81	53721	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2024-06-14	2.64	2.86	-15.18	30925	Downward Expansion	-37	17
2024-06-07	2.65	2.86	-20.38	52503	Downward Expansion	-31	23
2024-05-31	2.80	2.85	-16.22	67944	Downward Expansion	-21	29
2024-05-24	2.83	2.84	-16.03	29825	Downward Expansion	-28	25
2024-05-17	2.95	2.83	-15.37	128847	Rotation Down	-26	16
2024-05-10	2.99	2.82	-13.00	443344	Rotation Down	-17	31
2024-05-03	2.31	2.81	-31.20	32225	Rotation Down	-52	82
2024-04-26	2.43	2.82	-29.68	9602	Rotation Down	-44	79
2024-04-19	2.35	2.82	-31.96	40455	Rotation Down	-50	79
2024-04-12	2.40	2.84	-30.80	71438	Rotation Down	-52	72
2024-04-05	2.60	2.86	-26.22	57433	Deceleration	-43	43
2024-03-29	2.87	2.88	-20.97	24018	Deceleration	0	14
2024-03-22	3.00	2.88	-17.04	18125	Deceleration	32	21
2024-03-15	2.96	2.89	-17.93	6590	Deceleration	35	20
2024-03-08	3.00	2.89	-16.29	57306	Upward Expansion	42	29
2024-03-01	3.05	2.90	-14.28	22580	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-02-23	3.10	2.91	-12.85	16288	Upward Expansion	56	38
2024-02-16	3.15	2.91	-9.32	15474	Rotation Up	38	34
2024-02-09	3.05	2.92	-11.03	11657	Rotation Up	29	29
2024-02-02	3.07	2.93	-9.66	16942	Rotation Up	33	34
2024-01-26	3.10	2.93	-8.24	17035	Rotation Up	38	40
2024-01-19	3.03	2.94	-10.49	13514	Rotation Up	28	53
2024-01-12	3.10	2.95	-9.51	13027	Rotation Up	31	61
2024-01-05	3.11	2.96	-9.65	9090	Rotation Up	35	58
2023-12-29	3.12	2.97	-9.68	13526	Rotation Up	39	45
2023-12-22	3.01	2.97	-13.57	38833	Downward Expansion	10	30
2023-12-15	2.95	2.98	-16.04	36961	Downward Expansion	-7	22
2023-12-08	2.92	2.99	-17.69	139346	Downward Expansion	-24	20
2023-12-01	2.86	3.01	-18.79	50530	Downward Expansion	-46	40
2023-11-24	2.51	3.02	-28.15	26432	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2023-11-17	2.44	3.05	-30.97	13243	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2023-11-10	2.46	3.07	-28.70	19776	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2023-11-03	2.52	3.10	-28.04	19668	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2023-10-27	2.56	3.13	-23.90	8082	Downward Expansion	-71	85
2023-10-20	2.55	3.15	-25.14	7811	Downward Expansion	-78	91

Price vs TrendBelow-7.6%

Trend directionFalling-2.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-18.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-18.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.2%

Price momentumNegative-3.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.26×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-52 / ±100

-59.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

81 /100

+57.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MAPS Directional State ↗ MAPS Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance13

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion27

Deceleration43

Rotation Down79

Downward Expansion69

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 14%Upward Expansion 23%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 44%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+0.9%
Deceleration	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	-5.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-11	New	-2.6%
Rotation Up	2026-07-03	2026-08-14	Developing	+2.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-17	2026-06-26	Extended	-18.7%
Rotation Down	2025-10-03	2025-10-10	New	+1.5%
Deceleration	2025-07-04	2025-09-26	Established	-7.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-06-27	Extended	+3.9%
Rotation Up	2024-11-01	2024-12-06	Developing	+11.0%
Balance	2024-10-18	2024-10-25	New	+2.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-24	2024-10-11	Established	-11.3%
Rotation Down	2024-04-12	2024-05-17	Developing	+22.9%
Deceleration	2024-03-15	2024-04-05	New	-12.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-23	2024-03-08	New	-3.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing60

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution28

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -18.14
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -3.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.1%
Technology regime cohort: 67th percentile3 in cohort

Test MAPS trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.89×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.26×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MAPS Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 2.41falling

Slow Activity EUR 2.59falling

Trend Reference EUR 2.57-7.6% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 2.90-18.3% close margin

Structural low EUR 2.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +3.6%

Annualized volatility +23.8%

From structural high -37.6%

From structural low +6.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	-3.3%-11.4% to +24.6%	+25.0%	+50.0%	+1.1%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	3	-7.6%-10.7% to +3.3%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-1.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-8.2%-28.5% to +4.6%	+33.3%	+66.7%	+3.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-2.5%-28.8% to +33.3%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-7.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MAPS Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map