Weekly structural research · MEX · Industrials

AGUA Stage Analysis

Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 14.40Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 73−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 50/100directional strength

Maturity 68/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -19.8%MXN 17.95 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	14.40	13.05	14.00	283233	Upward Expansion	73	50
2026-09-18	13.86	12.95	12.57	264354	Upward Expansion	59	45
2026-09-11	14.05	12.93	13.20	191189	Upward Expansion	65	51
2026-09-04	14.07	12.86	11.72	134015	Upward Expansion	69	57
2026-08-28	14.06	12.79	10.50	501175	Upward Expansion	73	66
2026-08-21	13.70	12.71	7.12	339014	Upward Expansion	64	76
2026-08-14	13.95	12.65	11.08	47977	Upward Expansion	68	84
2026-08-07	14.05	12.58	7.49	57742	Upward Expansion	78	82
2026-07-31	13.92	12.51	6.32	70618	Upward Expansion	79	76
2026-07-24	13.90	12.43	6.73	111693	Upward Expansion	81	60
2026-07-17	13.03	12.37	-0.52	61079	Upward Expansion	59	45
2026-07-10	13.21	12.35	0.76	3773	Upward Expansion	60	61
2026-07-03	13.30	12.31	0.30	24545	Upward Expansion	64	62
2026-06-26	13.45	12.30	0.79	11985	Upward Expansion	73	59
2026-06-19	13.06	12.28	-3.09	10441	Upward Expansion	59	40
2026-06-12	13.04	12.27	-4.05	20148	Upward Expansion	58	48
2026-06-05	12.93	12.27	-2.76	16395	Upward Expansion	59	57
2026-05-29	12.70	12.28	-8.13	262214	Rotation Up	61	61
2026-05-22	13.51	12.30	-2.25	322475	Rotation Up	48	58
2026-05-15	13.22	12.30	-3.99	515722	Rotation Up	44	49
2026-05-08	12.64	12.30	-10.90	366024	Rotation Up	21	36
2026-05-01	12.66	12.33	-8.43	1528003	Balance	21	33
2026-04-24	12.66	12.35	-10.51	322951	Balance	22	26
2026-04-17	12.43	12.38	-12.96	378397	Balance	-3	14
2026-04-10	12.43	12.40	-13.38	347336	Balance	-15	15
2026-04-03	11.99	12.44	-16.26	816579	Downward Expansion	-47	25
2026-03-27	11.74	12.49	-14.64	577927	Downward Expansion	-52	43
2026-03-20	11.88	12.55	-10.54	7517957	Downward Expansion	-55	50
2026-03-13	10.85	12.61	-20.42	1800525	Downward Expansion	-69	48
2026-03-06	10.95	12.70	-22.03	968393	Downward Expansion	-69	38
2026-02-27	11.36	12.77	-24.16	703549	Downward Expansion	-53	25
2026-02-20	13.15	12.84	-12.84	1933692	Downward Expansion	-13	12
2026-02-13	11.95	12.84	-21.36	264561	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2026-02-06	11.85	12.87	-21.99	165052	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2026-01-30	11.79	12.91	-19.69	2738929	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2026-01-23	11.84	12.97	-21.20	404717	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2026-01-16	11.95	13.02	-20.30	1920410	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2026-01-09	11.80	13.08	-21.11	399620	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2026-01-02	11.67	13.14	-20.47	219755	Downward Expansion	-86	88
2025-12-26	12.07	13.19	-20.46	242778	Downward Expansion	-78	79
2025-12-19	12.40	13.21	-17.04	2901945	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2025-12-12	12.17	13.22	-20.18	303398	Rotation Down	-83	77
2025-12-05	12.83	13.24	-15.06	100387	Rotation Down	-35	54
2025-11-28	12.77	13.22	-16.58	356909	Balance	-37	50
2025-11-21	12.75	13.20	-15.42	205510	Balance	-30	34
2025-11-14	13.08	13.14	-14.89	1166689	Balance	3	6
2025-11-07	13.24	13.05	-16.30	909865	Balance	15	6
2025-10-31	13.27	12.96	-16.41	243406	Upward Expansion	31	14
2025-10-24	13.55	12.89	-13.59	294832	Upward Expansion	49	23
2025-10-17	13.36	12.82	-16.65	80790	Upward Expansion	35	18
2025-10-10	13.35	12.76	-16.40	122344	Upward Expansion	36	16
2025-10-03	13.47	12.69	-18.92	153538	Upward Expansion	38	19
2025-09-26	13.51	12.63	-20.40	358342	Upward Expansion	41	22
2025-09-19	13.05	12.59	-22.98	1762880	Upward Expansion	39	21
2025-09-12	13.55	12.61	-22.03	352329	Upward Expansion	51	37
2025-09-05	13.59	12.64	-21.28	302059	Upward Expansion	53	37
2025-08-29	13.47	12.73	-20.94	207523	Balance	49	33
2025-08-22	13.65	12.86	-21.78	252373	Balance	28	29
2025-08-15	13.43	12.96	-23.02	240444	Balance	23	17
2025-08-08	13.17	13.08	-25.23	250436	Balance	9	8
2025-08-01	13.57	13.14	-22.44	219550	Balance	16	11
2025-07-25	13.13	13.19	-26.53	225046	Balance	9	8
2025-07-18	12.77	13.27	-28.24	251978	Rotation Up	-15	12
2025-07-11	12.92	13.33	-28.79	203206	Rotation Up	18	20
2025-07-04	13.82	13.46	-26.70	377158	Balance	28	39
2025-06-27	13.29	13.56	-29.85	1763395	Balance	1	22
2025-06-20	13.61	13.70	-27.88	1175679	Balance	7	26
2025-06-13	13.78	13.84	-29.48	496423	Balance	13	27
2025-06-06	13.00	14.02	-35.01	416721	Downward Expansion	-7	21
2025-05-30	12.83	14.24	-36.48	362385	Downward Expansion	-26	29
2025-05-23	12.67	14.48	-38.83	687884	Downward Expansion	-32	31
2025-05-16	12.69	14.72	-39.23	425281	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2025-05-09	12.20	15.06	-40.93	478167	Downward Expansion	-50	45
2025-05-02	12.16	15.43	-41.16	394445	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2025-04-25	10.95	15.80	-48.59	1261717	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-04-18	10.54	16.22	-47.83	280764	Downward Expansion	-73	68
2025-04-11	10.46	16.64	-47.49	1403659	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2025-04-04	11.03	17.05	-45.29	1486717	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2025-03-28	11.65	17.49	-44.83	451687	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2025-03-21	11.46	17.91	-46.00	1616118	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2025-03-14	11.24	18.36	-47.55	1387953	Downward Expansion	-82	92
2025-03-07	11.76	18.79	-46.29	2182860	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2025-02-28	12.15	19.18	-44.76	18051333	Downward Expansion	-86	85
2025-02-21	13.82	19.58	-39.60	2450685	Downward Expansion	-78	58
2025-02-14	14.50	19.93	-37.84	1399046	Downward Expansion	-65	43
2025-02-07	16.09	20.25	-30.13	710813	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2025-01-31	17.31	20.58	-23.00	681846	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2025-01-24	16.91	20.86	-25.37	1245919	Downward Expansion	-52	49
2025-01-17	16.91	21.18	-23.78	939997	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2025-01-10	14.98	21.49	-32.52	606794	Downward Expansion	-72	69
2025-01-03	15.05	21.81	-31.95	365475	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2024-12-27	15.44	22.12	-31.27	832105	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2024-12-20	14.79	22.54	-35.10	1156697	Downward Expansion	-89	88
2024-12-13	16.69	22.97	-30.26	729939	Downward Expansion	-78	87
2024-12-06	16.79	23.33	-29.85	1073094	Downward Expansion	-83	90
2024-11-29	17.54	23.70	-24.87	929527	Downward Expansion	-83	91
2024-11-22	17.91	24.06	-24.61	992118	Downward Expansion	-85	93
2024-11-15	18.93	24.40	-20.79	1163595	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2024-11-08	19.83	24.67	-19.61	1246767	Downward Expansion	-77	89
2024-11-01	19.88	24.89	-17.79	697902	Downward Expansion	-85	88
2024-10-25	20.03	25.19	-19.34	818377	Downward Expansion	-87	74
2024-10-18	22.63	25.50	-11.31	553393	Downward Expansion	-66	44
2024-10-11	23.38	25.71	-7.41	687892	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2024-10-04	23.40	25.90	-7.84	590276	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2024-09-27	23.36	26.10	-8.44	898750	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2024-09-20	23.25	26.28	-7.96	601719	Downward Expansion	-64	52
2024-09-13	22.81	26.53	-9.46	889504	Downward Expansion	-71	43
2024-09-06	24.18	26.76	-2.39	1308325	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2024-08-30	24.28	26.82	-5.38	1183821	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2024-08-23	24.96	26.89	-3.74	885814	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2024-08-16	24.09	26.98	-7.93	747434	Downward Expansion	-60	57
2024-08-09	23.39	27.11	-8.85	977435	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2024-08-02	24.22	27.32	-4.17	975400	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2024-07-26	24.48	27.47	-4.15	949305	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2024-07-19	23.97	27.63	-7.64	668852	Downward Expansion	-73	45
2024-07-12	26.06	27.79	-1.96	3204559	Downward Expansion	-53	33
2024-07-05	25.52	27.80	0.87	1506084	Downward Expansion	-58	51
2024-06-28	26.58	27.78	4.83	1591537	Downward Expansion	-57	65
2024-06-21	26.23	27.76	3.02	1411755	Downward Expansion	-59	67
2024-06-14	24.48	27.73	-2.74	1808249	Balance	-78	74
2024-06-07	24.38	27.77	-4.55	1719909	Balance	-51	52
2024-05-31	28.18	27.79	5.77	2360787	Balance	22	12
2024-05-24	27.75	27.68	3.81	1881291	Balance	9	6
2024-05-17	27.47	27.52	-1.12	1774333	Balance	6	6
2024-05-10	27.76	27.37	-0.40	1025878	Balance	10	9
2024-05-03	28.52	27.23	3.50	930538	Balance	14	15
2024-04-26	27.88	27.09	0.24	800855	Balance	11	15
2024-04-19	27.07	26.95	0.99	905298	Balance	5	11
2024-04-12	26.64	26.85	-1.74	2022821	Upward Expansion	15	10
2024-04-05	28.75	26.77	3.25	1084623	Upward Expansion	37	22
2024-03-29	29.25	26.63	6.55	740583	Upward Expansion	50	29
2024-03-22	29.00	26.45	7.20	1312079	Upward Expansion	50	31
2024-03-15	29.15	26.23	8.65	2328282	Upward Expansion	52	42
2024-03-08	29.21	26.04	11.54	1586110	Upward Expansion	53	44
2024-03-01	28.77	25.85	8.84	1984386	Upward Expansion	51	37
2024-02-23	30.96	25.71	14.89	1509941	Deceleration	71	41
2024-02-16	29.51	25.51	8.67	1618083	Deceleration	52	25
2024-02-09	25.96	25.35	-4.69	1005578	Deceleration	30	23
2024-02-02	26.50	25.32	-4.41	590899	Upward Expansion	44	31
2024-01-26	27.63	25.32	1.91	1791341	Upward Expansion	60	47
2024-01-19	28.15	25.19	6.52	1795598	Upward Expansion	65	72
2024-01-12	29.45	25.10	11.20	1726247	Upward Expansion	73	84
2024-01-05	28.88	25.00	7.97	1641670	Upward Expansion	72	81
2023-12-29	29.38	24.94	7.30	990044	Upward Expansion	83	79
2023-12-22	28.66	24.82	4.42	1486124	Rotation Up	82	69
2023-12-15	26.43	24.76	-3.74	1203196	Rotation Up	40	43
2023-12-08	24.89	24.79	-5.31	1055022	Rotation Up	19	37
2023-12-01	25.77	24.79	-1.53	1292657	Rotation Up	24	43
2023-11-24	25.53	24.72	-1.15	951836	Balance	20	26
2023-11-17	25.55	24.64	-0.99	568925	Balance	18	17
2023-11-10	25.17	24.61	0.07	535919	Balance	-8	4
2023-11-03	24.75	24.63	-1.80	659982	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2023-10-27	22.95	24.62	-4.84	704839	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2023-10-20	22.88	24.71	-4.10	537511	Downward Expansion	-59	33
2023-10-13	23.73	24.78	-3.17	1111109	Downward Expansion	-39	20
2023-10-06	24.28	24.84	-1.96	1015789	Downward Expansion	-34	17

Price vs TrendAbove+10.3%

Trend directionRising+5.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-19.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+14.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+13.2%

Price momentumPositive+22.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.24×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

73 / ±100

-0.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

50 /100

-15.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AGUA Directional State ↗ AGUA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance16

Rotation Up57

Upward Expansion80

Deceleration68

Rotation Down23

Downward Expansion7

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 25%Deceleration 2%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 46%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-09-25	Established	+11.4%
Rotation Up	2026-05-08	2026-05-29	New	+0.5%
Balance	2026-04-10	2026-05-01	New	+1.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-04-03	Established	-3.3%
Rotation Down	2025-12-05	2025-12-12	New	-5.1%
Balance	2025-11-07	2025-11-28	New	-3.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-10-31	Developing	-2.3%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-08-29	Developing	+2.6%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-07-18	New	-1.1%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-07-04	New	+0.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-21	2025-06-06	Extended	-50.4%
Balance	2024-04-19	2024-06-14	Developing	-9.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-01	2024-04-12	Developing	-7.4%
Deceleration	2024-02-09	2024-02-23	New	+19.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing46

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution29

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 87/100
Current Relative Strength: 14.00
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +22.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +25.2%
Industrials regime cohort: 91th percentile11 in cohort

Test AGUA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.74×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.24×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AGUA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 14.12rising

Slow Activity MXN 13.52rising

Trend Reference MXN 13.05+10.3% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 17.95-19.8% close margin

Structural low MXN 11.71shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +17.5%

From structural high -1.4%

From structural low +44.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	+0.6%-9.2% to +12.1%	+55.6%	+55.6%	-2.5%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-1.3%-30.8% to +8.9%	+14.3%	+14.3%	-6.2%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-13.8%-19.4% to -1.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-21.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	4	-12.8%-47.4% to +3.5%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-18.4%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AGUA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map