Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

BDTX Stage Analysis

Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 1.83Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 49/100directional strength

Maturity 24/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -41.1%USD 3.11 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.83	2.14	-36.26	3477457	Balance	-52	49
2026-10-02	1.89	2.15	-35.49	2511735	Balance	-44	32
2026-09-25	1.88	2.16	-36.62	3024407	Balance	-42	25
2026-09-18	1.96	2.18	-32.78	3394009	Balance	-18	13
2026-09-11	1.98	2.19	-32.36	2040755	Balance	-11	18
2026-09-04	2.12	2.20	-28.92	2764244	Balance	-8	21
2026-08-28	2.23	2.21	-25.72	2235315	Downward Expansion	-12	20
2026-08-21	2.21	2.21	-26.65	3486392	Downward Expansion	-26	18
2026-08-14	2.02	2.23	-35.24	2942863	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2026-08-07	1.95	2.25	-37.36	3079148	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2026-07-31	1.69	2.27	-43.33	3714120	Downward Expansion	-61	38
2026-07-24	1.76	2.30	-41.24	2854218	Downward Expansion	-58	35
2026-07-17	1.79	2.33	-41.88	3854312	Downward Expansion	-58	37
2026-07-10	1.91	2.35	-41.33	7558347	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2026-07-03	2.01	2.38	-37.82	8990096	Downward Expansion	-61	62
2026-06-26	1.71	2.40	-47.06	17117134	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2026-06-19	1.66	2.48	-51.31	7716260	Downward Expansion	-70	71
2026-06-12	1.75	2.55	-47.77	8142698	Balance	-69	51
2026-06-05	1.97	2.62	-40.34	4871118	Balance	-52	35
2026-05-29	2.22	2.69	-36.34	7955049	Balance	-40	20
2026-05-22	2.28	2.74	-33.07	24176452	Rotation Up	-32	13
2026-05-15	2.75	2.80	-18.55	3615303	Rotation Up	17	28
2026-05-08	2.99	2.84	-11.68	6261469	Balance	28	35
2026-05-01	2.60	2.87	-18.71	3286995	Balance	-3	25
2026-04-24	2.97	2.92	-5.62	5038120	Balance	9	28
2026-04-17	3.06	2.93	-0.18	4531721	Downward Expansion	7	16
2026-04-10	2.56	2.94	-10.80	3934666	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2026-04-03	2.39	2.96	-12.61	2649012	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2026-03-27	2.03	2.98	-22.57	2362851	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2026-03-20	2.11	3.00	-22.07	2525662	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2026-03-13	2.12	3.03	-23.27	3663294	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2026-03-06	2.15	3.05	-22.97	4164031	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2026-02-27	2.47	3.06	-12.70	3239066	Downward Expansion	-61	62
2026-02-20	2.33	3.07	-17.82	1495967	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2026-02-13	2.22	3.09	-20.90	3066554	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2026-02-06	2.26	3.12	-20.92	4581899	Downward Expansion	-72	57
2026-01-30	2.49	3.14	-14.75	3194369	Rotation Down	-64	43
2026-01-23	2.61	3.14	-11.14	4140059	Rotation Down	-34	35
2026-01-16	2.56	3.13	-12.82	5587085	Rotation Down	-38	48
2026-01-09	2.81	3.12	-5.18	4402294	Rotation Down	-27	54
2026-01-02	2.49	3.11	-13.89	3659129	Rotation Down	-32	62
2025-12-26	2.59	3.11	-12.05	3444129	Rotation Down	-31	49
2025-12-19	2.54	3.10	-12.70	4724915	Deceleration	-33	38
2025-12-12	2.79	3.08	-3.65	5882332	Deceleration	-8	21
2025-12-05	2.67	3.05	-9.65	17567530	Deceleration	6	11
2025-11-28	3.82	3.02	30.39	3870501	Deceleration	43	32
2025-11-21	3.80	2.95	36.64	5558649	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-11-14	4.01	2.88	40.54	8453301	Upward Expansion	62	48
2025-11-07	3.89	2.79	36.86	4507244	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-10-31	3.87	2.71	31.94	2802411	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-10-24	3.93	2.62	36.69	3491472	Upward Expansion	66	78
2025-10-17	4.01	2.55	42.71	5645868	Upward Expansion	75	84
2025-10-10	4.09	2.47	49.06	5371797	Upward Expansion	85	88
2025-10-03	3.89	2.39	38.64	5252622	Upward Expansion	84	84
2025-09-26	3.40	2.33	22.00	5905530	Upward Expansion	72	72
2025-09-19	3.28	2.28	15.72	4138399	Upward Expansion	70	63
2025-09-12	3.25	2.24	15.06	6028052	Upward Expansion	72	57
2025-09-05	2.94	2.21	2.89	2734828	Deceleration	61	41
2025-08-29	2.75	2.20	-5.37	2757901	Deceleration	43	28
2025-08-22	2.92	2.19	-2.75	3974672	Deceleration	53	31
2025-08-15	2.76	2.18	-11.66	5834325	Upward Expansion	49	32
2025-08-08	2.40	2.16	-24.49	4723130	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-08-01	2.59	2.14	-17.25	4027027	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-07-25	2.97	2.13	-9.73	3700991	Upward Expansion	70	81
2025-07-18	3.13	2.11	-6.55	6608842	Upward Expansion	84	81
2025-07-11	2.87	2.08	-15.02	4251618	Rotation Up	81	74
2025-07-04	2.58	2.06	-25.37	4453605	Rotation Up	45	55
2025-06-27	2.35	2.06	-31.95	10564306	Rotation Up	26	57
2025-06-20	2.33	2.07	-30.89	3453538	Rotation Up	28	61
2025-06-13	2.31	2.08	-32.65	5010876	Rotation Up	26	47
2025-06-06	2.58	2.09	-26.96	7780712	Downward Expansion	42	41
2025-05-30	2.20	2.11	-37.58	3887869	Downward Expansion	7	19
2025-05-23	2.01	2.13	-42.90	4755271	Downward Expansion	-19	20
2025-05-16	1.95	2.17	-46.91	10579628	Downward Expansion	-34	21
2025-05-09	1.64	2.21	-53.19	4359329	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2025-05-02	1.78	2.27	-50.68	3501735	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-04-25	1.59	2.33	-55.86	3553417	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2025-04-18	1.44	2.42	-58.54	2507588	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2025-04-11	1.39	2.53	-61.79	7598446	Downward Expansion	-72	57
2025-04-04	1.40	2.69	-59.49	8279900	Downward Expansion	-76	60
2025-03-28	1.61	2.82	-58.81	16485952	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2025-03-21	1.78	2.97	-56.34	143505685	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2025-03-14	1.72	3.13	-58.57	2392779	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2025-03-07	1.88	3.25	-56.56	2155402	Downward Expansion	-71	54
2025-02-28	2.01	3.34	-55.59	2330734	Downward Expansion	-67	47
2025-02-21	2.16	3.46	-54.57	1529077	Downward Expansion	-51	35
2025-02-14	2.37	3.60	-51.95	2736096	Downward Expansion	-39	28
2025-02-07	2.46	3.71	-49.53	3178835	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2025-01-31	2.62	3.82	-46.74	3282765	Downward Expansion	-49	44
2025-01-24	2.48	3.88	-50.81	3989602	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2025-01-17	2.20	3.95	-55.90	16836768	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2025-01-10	1.93	4.04	-60.40	1840790	Downward Expansion	-80	90
2025-01-03	2.20	4.17	-56.15	1759074	Downward Expansion	-71	87
2024-12-27	2.19	4.27	-56.92	1505251	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2024-12-20	2.22	4.36	-56.16	2851555	Downward Expansion	-75	82
2024-12-13	2.56	4.45	-50.85	2366109	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2024-12-06	2.41	4.53	-53.55	2640392	Downward Expansion	-72	78
2024-11-29	2.65	4.65	-47.56	1557780	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2024-11-22	2.54	4.79	-49.43	2626533	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2024-11-15	2.62	4.91	-46.96	2021761	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-11-08	3.29	4.99	-35.71	2896999	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2024-11-01	2.89	5.06	-40.24	3614462	Downward Expansion	-73	82
2024-10-25	2.98	5.13	-39.27	3301988	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2024-10-18	3.31	5.20	-32.32	3535708	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2024-10-11	3.33	5.28	-31.66	4990478	Downward Expansion	-76	74
2024-10-04	3.75	5.33	-22.02	4694806	Balance	-67	57
2024-09-27	4.23	5.34	-11.86	36698055	Balance	-32	22
2024-09-20	4.76	5.36	0.34	4826578	Balance	14	7
2024-09-13	6.19	5.36	32.50	2032266	Balance	53	47
2024-09-06	5.40	5.33	23.27	2381837	Balance	41	27
2024-08-30	6.10	5.29	31.87	2951737	Balance	51	24
2024-08-23	6.46	5.23	39.48	3568969	Balance	60	26
2024-08-16	5.22	5.11	14.92	2653386	Balance	29	14
2024-08-09	4.64	5.03	8.19	2549391	Balance	28	20
2024-08-02	5.76	4.98	35.12	2652131	Balance	49	41
2024-07-26	6.20	4.88	41.96	1214689	Balance	56	37
2024-07-19	5.75	4.76	29.30	2196609	Balance	38	15
2024-07-12	5.65	4.67	22.03	3269143	Balance	22	14
2024-07-05	4.47	4.57	-4.00	2015075	Balance	1	7
2024-06-28	4.66	4.52	2.98	9079459	Balance	7	5
2024-06-21	4.84	4.44	6.02	1768843	Upward Expansion	23	12
2024-06-14	5.97	4.36	32.39	4542636	Upward Expansion	41	20
2024-06-07	5.19	4.23	20.85	2385125	Upward Expansion	26	21
2024-05-31	4.78	4.12	15.68	1582640	Upward Expansion	31	19
2024-05-24	4.89	4.02	17.45	3625577	Upward Expansion	43	30
2024-05-17	4.87	3.92	19.97	6258674	Upward Expansion	58	42
2024-05-10	6.11	3.82	55.62	3570395	Upward Expansion	61	51
2024-05-03	6.96	3.70	83.11	6164175	Upward Expansion	81	59
2024-04-26	5.89	3.55	60.04	2031134	Upward Expansion	69	46
2024-04-19	5.26	3.45	51.70	3866807	Upward Expansion	60	42
2024-04-12	5.24	3.39	45.54	2361488	Upward Expansion	61	48
2024-04-05	5.06	3.33	42.25	1732732	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-03-29	5.07	3.28	43.56	1502106	Upward Expansion	63	49
2024-03-22	5.74	3.23	63.85	2852461	Upward Expansion	82	58
2024-03-15	4.79	3.15	43.28	3142294	Upward Expansion	68	53
2024-03-08	4.06	3.09	21.76	1941165	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-03-01	4.78	3.07	42.87	3106129	Upward Expansion	68	83
2024-02-23	4.70	3.02	45.00	2844907	Upward Expansion	70	87
2024-02-16	5.35	2.99	69.06	5338590	Rotation Up	93	94
2024-02-09	4.23	2.96	32.84	4482198	Rotation Up	55	71
2024-02-02	4.39	2.98	40.43	5752195	Rotation Up	52	62
2024-01-26	2.90	2.98	-6.00	1023592	Balance	-0	11
2024-01-19	2.76	3.05	-10.77	1490019	Balance	-5	13
2024-01-12	2.98	3.02	-1.99	2270487	Balance	5	18
2024-01-05	2.73	2.99	-7.83	1019274	Balance	-6	18
2023-12-29	2.81	2.96	-8.29	1570986	Balance	-4	23
2023-12-22	2.87	2.95	-6.01	1726757	Downward Expansion	-13	24
2023-12-15	2.71	2.91	-9.90	2704268	Downward Expansion	-27	27
2023-12-08	3.00	2.88	3.43	2477409	Downward Expansion	-23	23
2023-12-01	2.36	2.84	-17.75	1300374	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2023-11-24	2.26	2.83	-21.30	898533	Rotation Down	-63	55
2023-11-17	2.14	2.80	-25.17	2602125	Rotation Down	-40	71
2023-11-10	1.78	2.78	-36.84	5422253	Rotation Down	-48	80
2023-11-03	1.90	2.77	-31.35	2268943	Rotation Down	-48	81
2023-10-27	1.77	2.77	-32.45	1652909	Rotation Down	-50	79
2023-10-20	2.10	2.77	-22.51	4901908	Rotation Down	-42	69

Price vs TrendBelow-14.6%

Trend directionFalling-5.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-41.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-36.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+5.1%

Price momentumNegative-28.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.57×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-52 / ±100

-40.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

49 /100

+30.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BDTX Directional State ↗ BDTX Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance32

Rotation Up9

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration48

Rotation Down68

Downward Expansion79

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 39%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	-13.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-08-28	Developing	+34.3%
Balance	2026-05-29	2026-06-12	New	-21.2%
Rotation Up	2026-05-15	2026-05-22	New	-17.1%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-08	New	+0.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-04-17	Developing	+35.7%
Rotation Down	2025-12-26	2026-01-30	Developing	-3.9%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2025-12-19	New	-33.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-11-21	Developing	+16.9%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	+0.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-08-15	Developing	-11.8%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-07-11	Developing	+24.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-11	2025-06-06	Extended	-22.5%
Balance	2024-06-28	2024-10-04	Established	-19.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing66

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution8

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -36.26
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -28.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -51.5%
Healthcare regime cohort: 87th percentile116 in cohort

Test BDTX trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.68×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BDTX Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 1.88falling

Slow Activity USD 2.02falling

Trend Reference USD 2.14-14.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 3.11-41.1% close margin

Structural low USD 1.60shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.9%

Annualized volatility +65.6%

From structural high -63.0%

From structural low +14.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	+2.2%-30.5% to +147.3%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-3.5%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-40.7%-59.6% to +81.5%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-43.9%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+17.0%-53.0% to +65.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.1%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+16.2%-22.1% to +54.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-13.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BDTX Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map