Weekly structural research · TOR · Energy

SHLE Stage Analysis

Source Energy Services Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close CAD 10.17Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^GSPTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -88−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 83/100directional strength

Maturity 48/100lifecycle context

Confidence 88/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -17.7%CAD 12.35 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	10.17	13.78	-32.67	59900	Downward Expansion	-88	83
2026-09-18	11.00	13.99	-27.80	87600	Downward Expansion	-78	82
2026-09-11	11.38	14.21	-25.61	26200	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2026-09-04	11.69	14.43	-25.84	20900	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2026-08-28	11.51	14.58	-27.57	28000	Downward Expansion	-76	83
2026-08-21	11.73	14.77	-26.92	6700	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2026-08-14	12.71	14.92	-21.67	13600	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2026-08-07	12.00	15.06	-25.68	6400	Downward Expansion	-71	87
2026-07-31	11.55	15.19	-26.56	5300	Downward Expansion	-81	79
2026-07-24	12.58	15.33	-20.93	8000	Downward Expansion	-69	53
2026-07-17	12.66	15.42	-20.63	2500	Downward Expansion	-71	45
2026-07-10	13.95	15.49	-13.19	3600	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2026-07-03	14.31	15.54	-11.28	2500	Downward Expansion	-57	47
2026-06-26	13.62	15.56	-15.32	3300	Downward Expansion	-62	60
2026-06-19	13.50	15.51	-16.41	2800	Rotation Down	-67	67
2026-06-12	13.77	15.42	-15.10	19900	Rotation Down	-38	53
2026-06-05	14.49	15.33	-9.56	518800	Rotation Down	-27	46
2026-05-29	13.64	15.21	-15.78	61200	Deceleration	-40	43
2026-05-22	15.07	15.16	-6.31	56200	Deceleration	8	5
2026-05-15	14.79	15.05	-6.32	79600	Deceleration	14	11
2026-05-08	15.03	14.94	-5.50	199900	Deceleration	18	14
2026-05-01	17.61	14.84	11.19	208600	Deceleration	49	25
2026-04-24	16.24	14.69	3.11	43100	Deceleration	13	15
2026-04-17	15.22	14.62	-4.27	49000	Deceleration	2	20
2026-04-10	14.62	14.57	-6.07	206700	Deceleration	-3	20
2026-04-03	14.75	14.56	-3.15	97700	Deceleration	-0	15
2026-03-27	15.00	14.53	2.48	155600	Deceleration	22	18
2026-03-20	16.04	14.51	12.10	111500	Deceleration	37	21
2026-03-13	15.76	14.44	6.47	185500	Upward Expansion	42	29
2026-03-06	16.92	14.34	12.92	86300	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-02-27	16.65	14.21	7.62	82700	Upward Expansion	59	45
2026-02-20	17.64	14.11	15.90	79100	Upward Expansion	68	55
2026-02-13	17.82	13.96	19.72	130000	Upward Expansion	74	57
2026-02-06	16.21	13.83	11.09	68400	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-01-30	17.30	13.76	20.52	115700	Upward Expansion	75	67
2026-01-23	16.24	13.65	9.02	170900	Upward Expansion	66	62
2026-01-16	16.90	13.55	13.16	262100	Upward Expansion	77	73
2026-01-09	15.81	13.44	6.75	232500	Upward Expansion	69	71
2026-01-02	15.72	13.32	8.16	43700	Rotation Up	70	74
2025-12-26	15.26	13.18	4.01	69200	Rotation Up	39	54
2025-12-19	14.90	13.05	1.74	128300	Rotation Up	37	41
2025-12-12	15.40	12.93	5.20	157500	Rotation Down	23	29
2025-12-05	14.75	12.80	0.72	462100	Rotation Down	-8	10
2025-11-28	12.25	12.71	-17.11	91000	Rotation Down	-59	44
2025-11-21	10.71	12.62	-25.37	80900	Rotation Down	-44	58
2025-11-14	11.22	12.58	-23.29	107600	Rotation Down	-38	53
2025-11-07	10.71	12.52	-26.66	181300	Rotation Down	-49	63
2025-10-31	12.31	12.43	-17.44	105700	Rotation Down	-21	45
2025-10-24	11.79	12.28	-21.61	70700	Upward Expansion	-24	33
2025-10-17	11.41	12.23	-23.91	218600	Upward Expansion	-11	22
2025-10-10	12.00	12.19	-19.55	151900	Upward Expansion	2	8
2025-10-03	13.26	12.10	-13.23	68000	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-09-26	14.09	11.98	-5.80	100100	Upward Expansion	57	37
2025-09-19	13.80	11.90	-7.75	91300	Upward Expansion	56	39
2025-09-12	14.16	11.88	-3.88	173100	Upward Expansion	60	44
2025-09-05	13.93	11.83	-4.71	70200	Upward Expansion	56	38
2025-08-29	14.22	11.80	-1.21	98200	Deceleration	62	37
2025-08-22	14.19	11.78	-0.87	208000	Deceleration	54	33
2025-08-15	12.64	11.84	-10.56	112000	Upward Expansion	40	25
2025-08-08	12.99	11.93	-8.19	176300	Upward Expansion	46	33
2025-08-01	13.55	11.98	-2.04	447900	Rotation Up	59	44
2025-07-25	13.37	12.05	-5.30	90800	Rotation Up	37	59
2025-07-18	13.88	12.12	-1.36	175500	Rotation Up	39	63
2025-07-11	14.05	12.17	0.95	129600	Rotation Up	45	66
2025-07-04	14.11	12.26	1.25	114500	Rotation Up	39	60
2025-06-27	13.23	12.34	-4.01	350900	Balance	29	47
2025-06-20	13.50	12.45	-1.26	549600	Balance	16	33
2025-06-13	12.27	12.59	-10.21	230400	Balance	4	16
2025-06-06	11.48	12.74	-15.72	119100	Balance	-9	17
2025-05-30	11.38	12.85	-15.80	92500	Downward Expansion	-11	21
2025-05-23	11.35	12.91	-15.16	156800	Downward Expansion	-25	24
2025-05-16	11.46	12.96	-14.68	210400	Downward Expansion	-31	25
2025-05-09	11.96	12.96	-9.04	293900	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2025-05-02	9.43	12.97	-27.54	53300	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2025-04-25	9.68	13.05	-25.47	109500	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-04-18	9.53	13.10	-26.06	115900	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2025-04-11	7.86	13.18	-38.09	165300	Downward Expansion	-80	85
2025-04-04	7.88	13.30	-37.64	165300	Downward Expansion	-86	91
2025-03-28	10.21	13.43	-24.87	106700	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2025-03-21	10.21	13.53	-26.05	105800	Rotation Down	-69	86
2025-03-14	9.35	13.63	-31.43	242700	Rotation Down	-58	80
2025-03-07	9.61	13.79	-30.29	241600	Rotation Down	-62	76
2025-02-28	11.71	13.91	-17.34	185900	Rotation Down	-39	63
2025-02-21	13.07	13.95	-6.62	246200	Rotation Down	-25	48
2025-02-14	12.88	13.95	-8.80	74900	Deceleration	-29	34
2025-02-07	13.04	13.90	-7.22	135300	Deceleration	-6	14
2025-01-31	13.55	13.86	-3.51	75700	Deceleration	11	13
2025-01-24	15.90	13.84	14.01	30700	Deceleration	37	19
2025-01-17	15.55	13.66	14.26	155100	Deceleration	33	20
2025-01-10	14.23	13.49	6.83	99400	Deceleration	33	22
2025-01-03	15.80	13.34	18.42	38000	Upward Expansion	44	32
2024-12-27	15.31	13.17	17.47	40300	Upward Expansion	48	39
2024-12-20	15.58	13.00	21.98	88300	Upward Expansion	63	53
2024-12-13	16.79	12.82	29.64	102500	Upward Expansion	68	83
2024-12-06	16.41	12.65	26.43	92300	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-11-29	16.55	12.50	29.36	105700	Upward Expansion	71	89
2024-11-22	17.61	12.44	40.30	174500	Upward Expansion	89	95
2024-11-15	16.83	12.41	38.85	333800	Upward Expansion	89	86
2024-11-08	14.68	12.35	23.21	314400	Balance	73	62
2024-11-01	13.35	12.35	15.49	127100	Balance	19	16
2024-10-25	12.75	12.32	10.31	186100	Balance	-13	7
2024-10-18	11.54	12.35	-0.84	262300	Balance	-42	23
2024-10-11	12.14	12.36	6.33	109900	Balance	-39	23
2024-10-04	11.89	12.29	6.10	103300	Balance	-50	32
2024-09-27	11.27	12.21	2.29	57600	Balance	-28	25
2024-09-20	11.70	12.12	7.41	108200	Balance	-10	14
2024-09-13	11.62	12.01	9.06	125200	Balance	11	10
2024-09-06	11.71	11.92	14.81	89400	Upward Expansion	22	17
2024-08-30	13.25	11.80	28.32	136700	Upward Expansion	55	45
2024-08-23	13.10	11.64	29.16	109400	Upward Expansion	56	52
2024-08-16	14.40	11.47	45.69	109300	Deceleration	71	61
2024-08-09	13.00	11.24	38.40	159000	Deceleration	57	41
2024-08-02	12.94	11.00	40.56	245600	Deceleration	46	31
2024-07-26	13.10	10.77	40.62	207800	Deceleration	48	31
2024-07-19	11.33	10.53	24.20	84900	Deceleration	30	19
2024-07-12	11.97	10.35	32.81	70400	Deceleration	29	18
2024-07-05	12.85	10.15	48.14	308700	Deceleration	31	15
2024-06-28	10.45	9.93	23.19	95100	Deceleration	2	15
2024-06-21	10.50	9.83	27.30	238300	Deceleration	2	17
2024-06-14	9.83	9.72	20.14	120900	Deceleration	-3	22
2024-06-07	10.64	9.64	29.14	171700	Deceleration	15	25
2024-05-31	10.36	9.52	25.53	139900	Deceleration	15	26
2024-05-24	10.07	9.40	22.91	149000	Upward Expansion	24	24
2024-05-17	11.54	9.27	41.10	297000	Upward Expansion	48	39
2024-05-10	12.07	9.11	50.39	279800	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-05-03	14.83	8.93	90.94	167100	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-04-26	16.70	8.62	119.88	172700	Upward Expansion	90	82
2024-04-19	14.82	8.25	102.60	102300	Upward Expansion	83	91
2024-04-12	14.85	7.94	108.01	283100	Upward Expansion	90	93
2024-04-05	12.24	7.62	73.85	222000	Upward Expansion	72	88
2024-03-29	13.84	7.37	102.10	174200	Upward Expansion	96	98
2024-03-22	11.72	7.06	77.71	220100	Upward Expansion	93	93
2024-03-15	10.00	6.80	56.54	75400	Upward Expansion	83	76
2024-03-08	9.60	6.62	54.25	147600	Upward Expansion	83	74
2024-03-01	8.55	6.45	41.17	79300	Upward Expansion	66	67
2024-02-23	8.44	6.36	42.55	27100	Upward Expansion	66	80
2024-02-16	8.76	6.24	51.61	51300	Upward Expansion	76	86
2024-02-09	8.15	6.13	45.44	64800	Upward Expansion	68	80
2024-02-02	8.54	6.07	54.50	106700	Upward Expansion	80	81
2024-01-26	8.05	5.98	48.14	71800	Deceleration	71	59
2024-01-19	7.40	5.86	39.98	150900	Deceleration	49	23
2024-01-12	5.85	5.77	12.08	119700	Deceleration	1	16
2024-01-05	6.12	5.75	19.18	55500	Deceleration	18	23
2023-12-29	5.96	5.74	17.70	58300	Deceleration	17	25
2023-12-22	5.86	5.72	17.91	54900	Deceleration	25	22
2023-12-15	5.92	5.72	23.06	138600	Upward Expansion	39	25
2023-12-08	6.23	5.72	32.90	90400	Upward Expansion	61	46
2023-12-01	7.35	5.68	58.77	28700	Upward Expansion	67	73
2023-11-24	7.30	5.60	64.23	54500	Upward Expansion	70	72
2023-11-17	7.59	5.52	74.45	121200	Upward Expansion	82	76
2023-11-10	6.93	5.39	67.87	108300	Upward Expansion	73	74
2023-11-03	6.68	5.28	64.51	85600	Upward Expansion	70	75
2023-10-27	6.20	5.17	65.39	31000	Upward Expansion	64	73
2023-10-20	6.65	5.07	78.06	81000	Upward Expansion	77	77
2023-10-13	6.82	4.94	83.67	174700	Upward Expansion	80	71
2023-10-06	5.60	4.80	56.66	45200	Deceleration	56	38

Price vs TrendBelow-26.2%

Trend directionFalling-10.6%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-17.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-33.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-32.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-17.3%

Price momentumNegative-32.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.19×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-88 / ±100

-11.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

83 /100

+0.2 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SHLE Directional State ↗ SHLE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance0

Rotation Up18

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration42

Rotation Down77

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 24%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-09-25	Established	-25.3%
Rotation Down	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	-6.8%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-05-29	Developing	-15.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-03-13	Developing	-0.3%
Rotation Up	2025-12-19	2026-01-02	New	+5.5%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-12-12	Developing	+25.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-10-24	Developing	-15.4%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-08-29	New	+0.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-08-15	New	-2.7%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-08-01	Developing	-4.0%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-27	New	+15.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-28	2025-05-30	Developing	+11.5%
Rotation Down	2025-02-21	2025-03-21	Developing	-21.9%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-02-14	Developing	-9.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing44

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution26

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GSPTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -32.67
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -32.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -44.2%
Energy regime cohort: 89th percentile19 in cohort

Test SHLE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.18×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.19×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SHLE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CAD 10.93falling

Slow Activity CAD 12.83falling

Trend Reference CAD 13.78-26.2% close margin

Current Fair Value CAD 12.35-17.7% close margin

Structural low CAD 9.65shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.0%

Annualized volatility +42.2%

From structural high -45.7%

From structural low +5.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GSPTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-6.5%-18.0% to +104.6%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-5.8%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+18.5%-25.3% to +87.6%	+60.0%	+40.0%	+16.2%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+58.7%+38.0% to +91.8%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+53.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+46.9%+16.4% to +140.0%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+20.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SHLE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map