Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

ACLS Stage Analysis

Axcelis Technologies Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 134.71Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -6−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 12/100directional strength

Maturity 14/100lifecycle context

Confidence 53/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +33.2%USD 101.14 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	134.71	135.26	4.99	1345280	Balance	-6	12
2026-10-02	147.77	133.55	16.01	2027668	Rotation Down	1	10
2026-09-25	123.11	131.36	-2.14	1715051	Rotation Down	-33	47
2026-09-18	109.32	130.01	-10.22	2066733	Rotation Down	-40	58
2026-09-11	113.43	129.04	-6.08	1043558	Rotation Down	-29	50
2026-09-04	115.08	128.41	-5.12	1781862	Deceleration	-28	39
2026-08-28	115.57	127.44	-4.17	1510459	Deceleration	-10	23
2026-08-21	127.07	126.53	6.06	1607153	Deceleration	-1	11
2026-08-14	140.15	125.33	14.51	1319237	Deceleration	9	14
2026-08-07	140.27	123.76	16.57	2803540	Deceleration	8	17
2026-07-31	130.38	122.19	14.61	2227578	Deceleration	4	17
2026-07-24	134.10	120.71	19.42	1664163	Deceleration	22	24
2026-07-17	136.42	119.00	20.48	2281800	Deceleration	35	23
2026-07-10	143.35	117.21	22.34	2856273	Upward Expansion	44	34
2026-07-03	144.50	115.28	26.49	3090862	Upward Expansion	59	50
2026-06-26	173.23	113.49	54.25	3988905	Upward Expansion	63	61
2026-06-19	187.53	110.48	61.77	2782032	Upward Expansion	83	69
2026-06-12	180.12	106.79	62.07	3928211	Upward Expansion	85	68
2026-06-05	147.16	103.50	37.63	2302038	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-05-29	150.41	101.46	35.86	1855811	Upward Expansion	68	74
2026-05-22	156.94	99.10	47.66	2462715	Upward Expansion	73	89
2026-05-15	155.18	96.64	49.79	2913954	Upward Expansion	77	92
2026-05-08	163.03	94.23	58.96	5803902	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-05-01	139.99	91.44	46.16	3022310	Upward Expansion	86	94
2026-04-24	143.13	89.73	53.84	5004177	Upward Expansion	94	94
2026-04-17	118.73	88.20	32.42	2989101	Upward Expansion	84	83
2026-04-10	110.37	87.44	32.21	2991471	Balance	77	69
2026-04-03	95.09	86.61	20.28	2237850	Balance	53	37
2026-03-27	97.35	86.13	29.18	4510695	Balance	46	20
2026-03-20	84.43	85.55	9.47	3513902	Balance	-10	18
2026-03-13	83.19	85.44	6.17	3132792	Balance	-11	17
2026-03-06	82.24	85.35	4.17	4246585	Balance	-12	13
2026-02-27	82.61	85.26	3.54	4146767	Balance	-0	7
2026-02-20	80.16	84.80	0.63	9751088	Upward Expansion	16	10
2026-02-13	94.55	84.57	20.25	3599092	Upward Expansion	62	32
2026-02-06	86.08	83.79	8.78	4250079	Upward Expansion	50	28
2026-01-30	88.07	83.41	9.40	2449733	Upward Expansion	53	51
2026-01-23	91.12	82.91	13.22	2077736	Upward Expansion	55	55
2026-01-16	93.12	82.20	16.18	2811591	Deceleration	62	52
2026-01-09	93.10	81.29	15.36	3457063	Deceleration	64	38
2026-01-02	86.12	80.36	9.25	1054890	Deceleration	37	17
2025-12-26	82.61	79.61	3.00	1020389	Deceleration	31	19
2025-12-19	82.72	78.73	4.35	3143720	Deceleration	33	21
2025-12-12	85.61	77.92	8.58	3199617	Deceleration	35	19
2025-12-05	90.82	77.12	12.96	2619359	Deceleration	47	21
2025-11-28	82.77	76.01	4.03	1711180	Deceleration	17	9
2025-11-21	76.88	75.00	1.22	2556066	Deceleration	7	9
2025-11-14	81.54	74.09	3.74	2938213	Deceleration	31	16
2025-11-07	85.74	72.87	8.70	4859499	Deceleration	35	20
2025-10-31	79.56	71.58	-2.61	2998326	Deceleration	31	24
2025-10-24	83.31	70.34	3.18	2317544	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-10-17	82.88	69.22	4.16	3165173	Upward Expansion	46	35
2025-10-10	79.19	68.32	1.21	4667313	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-10-03	88.71	67.63	9.67	5320487	Upward Expansion	66	73
2025-09-26	97.48	66.70	20.93	2490220	Upward Expansion	86	89
2025-09-19	95.65	65.27	17.16	3422940	Upward Expansion	89	83
2025-09-12	85.55	64.19	6.28	1861682	Upward Expansion	77	72
2025-09-05	80.61	63.37	0.96	1897258	Upward Expansion	65	69
2025-08-29	80.04	62.81	0.16	2238555	Upward Expansion	66	72
2025-08-22	81.29	62.41	0.20	1876482	Upward Expansion	71	58
2025-08-15	80.51	62.06	-2.96	2772846	Upward Expansion	75	56
2025-08-08	79.42	61.77	-5.14	4380638	Upward Expansion	76	53
2025-08-01	68.75	61.43	-16.07	2722366	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-07-25	73.40	61.54	-13.65	2423338	Rotation Up	67	75
2025-07-18	70.96	61.47	-17.23	1769902	Rotation Up	38	66
2025-07-11	74.86	61.42	-13.15	1940437	Rotation Up	52	73
2025-07-04	73.04	61.43	-17.28	1678189	Rotation Up	50	67
2025-06-27	69.69	61.47	-21.39	3377177	Rotation Up	36	56
2025-06-20	66.02	61.62	-23.99	2060938	Balance	29	41
2025-06-13	65.07	61.92	-26.50	4971976	Balance	9	21
2025-06-06	63.51	62.20	-30.00	2597717	Balance	6	21
2025-05-30	56.34	62.92	-37.68	2098539	Downward Expansion	-21	23
2025-05-23	58.32	63.91	-35.25	1826053	Downward Expansion	-24	25
2025-05-16	61.58	64.96	-34.17	2758945	Downward Expansion	-23	22
2025-05-09	57.66	65.98	-35.06	4764686	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-05-02	52.30	67.43	-42.06	3200287	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2025-04-25	49.84	69.03	-43.77	2820420	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2025-04-18	44.78	70.95	-46.98	1982719	Downward Expansion	-74	83
2025-04-11	47.05	72.83	-46.25	5795153	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2025-04-04	42.42	74.71	-48.60	4163006	Downward Expansion	-88	80
2025-03-28	49.71	76.53	-46.45	2464442	Downward Expansion	-82	66
2025-03-21	55.90	78.51	-42.02	3411594	Downward Expansion	-73	63
2025-03-14	58.47	80.46	-39.99	3546475	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2025-03-07	60.63	82.36	-40.03	3627121	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2025-02-28	54.79	84.09	-48.20	3577761	Downward Expansion	-86	85
2025-02-21	63.11	85.80	-43.18	2264347	Downward Expansion	-69	74
2025-02-14	61.06	87.82	-46.90	6506745	Downward Expansion	-81	69
2025-02-07	63.87	90.05	-43.65	3514196	Downward Expansion	-77	63
2025-01-31	68.00	92.88	-40.80	2597044	Downward Expansion	-69	57
2025-01-24	70.82	95.34	-40.14	1913875	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-01-17	71.61	97.72	-39.48	1974087	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2025-01-10	69.44	99.92	-40.52	2673991	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2025-01-03	71.96	102.23	-40.43	1608718	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2024-12-27	71.24	104.00	-42.24	1968936	Downward Expansion	-70	66
2024-12-20	69.47	105.37	-43.99	4651737	Downward Expansion	-78	69
2024-12-13	75.29	106.77	-41.57	2252634	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2024-12-06	74.19	108.03	-42.87	2539420	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2024-11-29	74.24	109.35	-41.74	2071740	Downward Expansion	-76	89
2024-11-22	75.07	110.59	-41.44	4204419	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2024-11-15	73.22	111.52	-42.62	4063105	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2024-11-08	85.08	112.24	-36.54	4087507	Downward Expansion	-78	90
2024-11-01	86.09	112.89	-33.18	2754930	Downward Expansion	-79	86
2024-10-25	89.89	113.53	-32.24	2452768	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-10-18	92.26	114.25	-31.42	4153204	Downward Expansion	-73	56
2024-10-11	101.18	114.93	-25.79	2196633	Downward Expansion	-61	42
2024-10-04	100.28	115.15	-26.75	2546895	Rotation Down	-63	47
2024-09-27	107.37	115.54	-22.76	2534870	Rotation Down	-32	46
2024-09-20	101.29	115.83	-27.54	5757521	Rotation Down	-36	53
2024-09-13	103.27	116.11	-26.14	2408373	Rotation Down	-26	46
2024-09-06	96.98	116.56	-27.64	2575487	Deceleration	-36	44
2024-08-30	109.33	117.51	-24.42	2338252	Deceleration	-21	28
2024-08-23	114.22	118.25	-23.04	2132351	Deceleration	-15	26
2024-08-16	115.47	118.82	-22.49	2526024	Deceleration	-3	22
2024-08-09	112.47	119.36	-21.43	3368111	Deceleration	-7	23
2024-08-02	106.33	119.41	-26.38	5705818	Upward Expansion	10	15
2024-07-26	123.55	119.80	-18.25	3449435	Upward Expansion	47	33
2024-07-19	127.96	120.00	-18.67	3320058	Upward Expansion	63	52
2024-07-12	148.74	120.18	-10.25	3769464	Rotation Up	79	86
2024-07-05	141.81	119.76	-15.52	1632798	Rotation Up	45	75
2024-06-28	142.19	119.12	-13.22	2985115	Rotation Up	51	75
2024-06-21	137.68	118.58	-16.97	2578964	Rotation Up	41	66
2024-06-14	138.73	118.27	-17.00	3001151	Balance	45	53
2024-06-07	124.96	118.04	-23.35	3375156	Balance	11	19
2024-05-31	112.49	118.26	-29.96	1644453	Downward Expansion	-25	21
2024-05-24	111.37	118.88	-32.53	1807405	Downward Expansion	-28	23
2024-05-17	113.23	119.77	-31.27	1997437	Downward Expansion	-35	22
2024-05-10	113.79	120.81	-30.06	2062467	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2024-05-03	111.45	122.36	-30.90	3628643	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-04-26	103.06	124.05	-35.83	2385598	Downward Expansion	-61	66
2024-04-19	94.79	126.05	-39.06	2732080	Downward Expansion	-79	69
2024-04-12	104.61	128.10	-36.92	2270120	Downward Expansion	-65	47
2024-04-05	105.24	130.19	-37.38	2764833	Downward Expansion	-68	48
2024-03-29	111.52	132.58	-34.69	2095842	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-03-22	112.66	135.29	-34.92	2515072	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2024-03-15	107.61	137.15	-36.49	3336250	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2024-03-08	111.91	139.05	-35.27	2953825	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-03-01	116.27	140.89	-34.31	3059021	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2024-02-23	109.65	142.87	-37.33	3306773	Downward Expansion	-73	49
2024-02-16	116.78	145.65	-32.86	3651488	Downward Expansion	-66	36
2024-02-09	125.32	147.60	-29.48	6139562	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2024-02-02	131.62	149.42	-24.99	2886599	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2024-01-26	131.29	150.80	-24.55	4326030	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-01-19	131.64	152.54	-24.11	3534922	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2024-01-12	114.12	153.76	-32.51	3366184	Downward Expansion	-77	58
2024-01-05	117.83	155.60	-28.34	2656830	Downward Expansion	-75	50
2023-12-29	129.69	157.42	-23.69	1728738	Downward Expansion	-51	42
2023-12-22	133.43	158.51	-21.17	2930968	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2023-12-15	136.09	159.43	-18.74	4640877	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2023-12-08	122.69	159.61	-24.16	3141260	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2023-12-01	125.86	159.59	-21.68	2405331	Downward Expansion	-72	78
2023-11-24	128.36	159.40	-19.84	2335330	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2023-11-17	132.02	159.07	-16.61	3140675	Rotation Down	-69	78
2023-11-10	131.31	158.85	-15.10	2819142	Rotation Down	-47	71
2023-11-03	131.11	158.73	-12.45	5276142	Rotation Down	-52	67
2023-10-27	138.04	158.53	-1.33	2609591	Rotation Down	-39	53
2023-10-20	144.59	158.38	1.53	2766461	Deceleration	-33	39

Price vs TrendBelow-0.4%

Trend directionRising+10.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+33.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-17.4%

Price momentumPositive+22.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.39×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-6 / ±100

+22.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

12 /100

-38.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ACLS Directional State ↗ ACLS Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance53

Rotation Up40

Upward Expansion27

Deceleration47

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion31

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 40%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	+30.3%
Deceleration	2026-07-17	2026-09-04	Developing	-15.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-07-10	Established	+20.7%
Balance	2026-02-27	2026-04-10	Developing	+33.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-02-20	Developing	-12.0%
Deceleration	2025-10-31	2026-01-16	Developing	+17.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-10-24	Established	+21.2%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-07-25	Developing	+5.3%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-20	New	+4.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-11	2025-05-30	Extended	-44.3%
Rotation Down	2024-09-13	2024-10-04	New	-2.9%
Deceleration	2024-08-09	2024-09-06	Developing	-13.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-08-02	New	-16.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing24

Stage 2 · Advancing79

Stage 3 · Distribution69

Stage 4 · Declining21

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 35/100
Current Relative Strength: 4.99
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +22.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -0.9%
Technology regime cohort: 12th percentile95 in cohort

Test ACLS trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.61×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.39×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ACLS Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 131.07rising

Slow Activity USD 136.20falling

Trend Reference USD 135.26-0.4% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 101.14+33.2% close margin

Structural low USD 102.66shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +12.6%

Annualized volatility +68.4%

From structural high -30.5%

From structural low +83.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+13.1%-22.6% to +47.0%	+81.8%	+81.8%	+9.9%	+9.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+24.3%-22.4% to +82.1%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+18.1%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+41.4%-40.6% to +146.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+23.3%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+84.7%-49.2% to +174.3%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+76.8%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ACLS Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map