Weekly structural research · SHH · Industrials

601615 Stage Analysis

Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 9.50Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -72−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 67/100directional strength

Maturity 86/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -22.0%CNY 12.18 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	9.50	13.01	-33.10	81877799	Downward Expansion	-72	67
2026-10-02	9.77	13.43	-32.29	135482609	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2026-09-25	9.65	13.78	-34.43	128593521	Downward Expansion	-71	87
2026-09-18	9.74	14.22	-34.59	254491025	Downward Expansion	-70	88
2026-09-11	9.66	14.64	-35.00	198714624	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2026-09-04	9.31	15.13	-38.32	65086919	Downward Expansion	-86	86
2026-08-28	10.60	15.59	-30.44	41723157	Downward Expansion	-69	58
2026-08-21	10.95	15.96	-27.47	37071100	Downward Expansion	-54	48
2026-08-14	11.65	16.25	-23.48	65360794	Downward Expansion	-50	49
2026-08-07	11.60	16.46	-24.11	38426225	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2026-07-31	11.15	16.55	-25.08	47496578	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2026-07-24	10.96	16.67	-26.12	49691776	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2026-07-17	10.19	16.77	-30.51	83270315	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2026-07-10	11.37	16.88	-27.15	133225255	Downward Expansion	-71	87
2026-07-03	11.60	16.96	-26.68	98566842	Downward Expansion	-70	88
2026-06-26	11.19	17.02	-29.07	82929379	Downward Expansion	-79	91
2026-06-19	12.02	17.09	-25.13	299375041	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2026-06-12	11.90	17.17	-24.76	92403728	Deceleration	-53	62
2026-06-05	13.84	17.28	-12.43	96148906	Deceleration	-44	37
2026-05-29	16.53	17.32	3.82	969445495	Deceleration	-16	17
2026-05-22	16.79	17.29	4.90	610037070	Deceleration	-18	22
2026-05-15	15.32	17.24	-4.32	483299950	Rotation Down	-27	32
2026-05-08	16.66	17.29	3.28	280626395	Rotation Down	-20	32
2026-05-01	15.84	17.28	0.29	395469083	Rotation Down	-25	38
2026-04-24	16.19	17.27	3.72	440459125	Deceleration	-23	31
2026-04-17	16.93	17.19	9.77	374039870	Deceleration	-17	29
2026-04-10	16.55	17.05	9.75	295371892	Deceleration	-1	21
2026-04-03	15.87	16.93	8.67	352474975	Deceleration	6	18
2026-03-27	17.26	16.81	17.71	537809724	Deceleration	24	21
2026-03-20	19.58	16.65	32.70	404908080	Upward Expansion	44	31
2026-03-13	22.15	16.41	46.38	444142800	Upward Expansion	61	47
2026-03-06	20.23	16.05	34.35	370776162	Upward Expansion	63	57
2026-02-27	22.92	15.75	52.21	317247984	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-02-13	22.42	15.37	53.80	555217240	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-02-06	24.20	15.00	68.80	683460097	Upward Expansion	89	96
2026-01-30	23.20	14.57	62.13	884842193	Upward Expansion	94	98
2026-01-23	21.65	14.16	52.77	16995353	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-01-16	19.68	13.81	41.66	112504032	Upward Expansion	91	90
2026-01-09	17.89	13.50	29.31	600377453	Deceleration	79	64
2026-01-02	14.48	13.23	9.34	140197731	Deceleration	30	17
2025-12-26	14.73	13.08	11.54	209186796	Deceleration	29	14
2025-12-19	13.85	12.91	6.87	247563167	Deceleration	8	13
2025-12-12	13.60	12.78	4.87	165407473	Deceleration	7	18
2025-12-05	13.70	12.66	4.89	173414859	Deceleration	20	22
2025-11-28	13.57	12.55	3.97	135460193	Deceleration	24	22
2025-11-21	13.06	12.43	1.07	169810661	Deceleration	25	19
2025-11-14	14.46	12.33	7.41	281612275	Deceleration	42	32
2025-11-07	15.24	12.17	12.99	261261464	Upward Expansion	56	43
2025-10-31	15.14	11.98	13.49	300820668	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-10-24	15.63	11.83	17.48	318767712	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-10-17	15.30	11.66	18.54	494363158	Upward Expansion	67	80
2025-10-10	16.82	11.55	29.07	232364091	Upward Expansion	88	95
2025-10-03	16.16	11.35	25.30	283908313	Upward Expansion	91	95
2025-09-26	15.53	11.16	22.85	324702655	Upward Expansion	93	92
2025-09-19	13.77	10.99	9.77	302510752	Upward Expansion	83	72
2025-09-12	12.83	10.88	1.32	264680184	Upward Expansion	69	67
2025-09-05	13.12	10.81	5.38	278616527	Upward Expansion	80	78
2025-08-29	12.14	10.73	-3.38	300599521	Upward Expansion	65	60
2025-08-22	12.37	10.66	-0.71	190399827	Upward Expansion	77	69
2025-08-15	12.45	10.59	3.63	240977365	Upward Expansion	84	67
2025-08-08	11.22	10.54	-4.89	157447040	Upward Expansion	61	54
2025-08-01	11.26	10.50	-2.62	103998948	Upward Expansion	64	72
2025-07-25	11.60	10.49	-0.68	137419147	Rotation Up	77	79
2025-07-18	11.23	10.52	-2.33	93620740	Rotation Up	40	64
2025-07-11	11.37	10.57	-0.34	147185089	Balance	39	51
2025-07-04	10.98	10.66	-2.59	166061500	Balance	6	19
2025-06-27	11.03	10.75	-0.74	194687531	Downward Expansion	-4	10
2025-06-20	10.38	10.84	-4.61	204536437	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2025-06-13	9.77	10.89	-10.70	76569813	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2025-06-06	9.95	10.97	-9.59	71882809	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2025-05-30	9.78	11.07	-10.21	102696526	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2025-05-23	9.81	11.13	-10.06	70821100	Downward Expansion	-60	36
2025-05-16	10.27	11.20	-6.53	94029725	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2025-05-09	10.19	11.19	-6.58	80339946	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2025-05-02	9.94	11.19	-7.22	82423356	Downward Expansion	-60	68
2025-04-25	10.11	11.21	-6.02	86169680	Downward Expansion	-59	69
2025-04-18	9.78	11.19	-8.45	112041025	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2025-04-11	9.47	11.14	-10.17	162732408	Balance	-73	46
2025-04-04	10.57	11.09	-2.85	80836828	Balance	-13	13
2025-03-28	10.73	11.02	-1.56	207380712	Balance	-7	11
2025-03-21	11.73	10.96	7.39	286860970	Deceleration	10	12
2025-03-14	10.88	10.84	-1.72	188282030	Deceleration	-14	15
2025-03-07	10.53	10.78	-3.54	179304435	Deceleration	-9	17
2025-02-28	10.48	10.73	-2.50	215160653	Deceleration	-20	20
2025-02-21	10.47	10.70	-4.27	176323844	Rotation Down	-21	24
2025-02-14	10.58	10.68	-2.37	150384480	Rotation Down	-21	36
2025-02-07	10.85	10.63	1.56	106769444	Rotation Down	-23	39
2025-01-31	10.10	10.57	-3.75	25271456	Deceleration	-29	38
2025-01-24	10.34	10.53	-1.79	137831581	Deceleration	-8	30
2025-01-17	10.66	10.48	1.33	151543211	Deceleration	10	25
2025-01-10	10.29	10.44	-0.22	254168404	Deceleration	10	22
2025-01-03	10.91	10.44	4.07	124964107	Upward Expansion	36	25
2024-12-27	12.51	10.40	12.29	114354140	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-12-20	12.55	10.30	13.68	158510923	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-12-13	14.03	10.20	26.11	144466735	Upward Expansion	77	70
2024-12-06	13.70	10.07	22.75	216250824	Upward Expansion	78	68
2024-11-29	13.82	9.94	26.64	277513509	Upward Expansion	87	82
2024-11-22	11.83	9.79	10.22	134118072	Upward Expansion	67	78
2024-11-15	12.15	9.69	10.52	200214285	Upward Expansion	70	86
2024-11-08	13.04	9.56	13.92	320172985	Upward Expansion	91	93
2024-11-01	11.62	9.42	6.74	282909344	Upward Expansion	81	86
2024-10-25	11.92	9.33	8.03	381172289	Rotation Up	89	86
2024-10-18	10.06	9.23	-8.37	160370584	Rotation Up	51	47
2024-10-11	10.15	9.21	-7.20	285915020	Rotation Up	27	33
2024-10-04	10.51	9.19	-8.17	86003190	Rotation Up	21	20
2024-09-27	9.56	9.16	-10.48	191789556	Downward Expansion	-36	27
2024-09-20	8.14	9.16	-14.74	43144509	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2024-09-13	8.13	9.20	-14.62	76651068	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2024-09-06	8.27	9.21	-15.76	120745144	Balance	-68	66
2024-08-30	8.89	9.21	-12.66	116758018	Balance	-24	43
2024-08-23	8.24	9.25	-20.10	80098310	Balance	-42	43
2024-08-16	9.00	9.32	-14.51	70825072	Balance	-3	5
2024-08-09	9.24	9.38	-12.69	97049997	Balance	-22	11
2024-08-02	9.49	9.45	-12.50	147139625	Balance	-16	7
2024-07-26	9.78	9.52	-10.15	184646129	Balance	-22	15
2024-07-19	9.04	9.57	-20.17	86441053	Balance	-51	41
2024-07-12	9.03	9.65	-20.69	109087001	Balance	-44	33
2024-07-05	9.02	9.75	-20.97	87333919	Balance	-42	24
2024-06-28	8.89	9.86	-23.34	114812500	Balance	-43	20
2024-06-21	9.28	10.00	-21.52	228318547	Balance	-15	11
2024-06-14	10.33	10.14	-14.43	207095992	Balance	12	18
2024-06-07	9.63	10.26	-21.36	150165526	Balance	-7	15
2024-05-31	9.57	10.37	-23.51	192610833	Balance	-5	20
2024-05-24	9.78	10.50	-22.70	147493290	Downward Expansion	-7	20
2024-05-17	9.91	10.65	-24.01	255468561	Downward Expansion	-23	20
2024-05-10	10.03	10.81	-23.79	269102035	Downward Expansion	-35	28
2024-05-03	9.23	10.97	-29.51	173818448	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2024-04-26	8.70	11.14	-34.13	139432035	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-04-19	8.32	11.33	-37.42	169224798	Downward Expansion	-75	60
2024-04-12	8.86	11.54	-33.41	173847510	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2024-04-05	9.02	11.73	-34.29	109886568	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2024-03-29	8.86	11.89	-35.81	116963143	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-03-22	9.36	12.11	-33.30	151040554	Downward Expansion	-50	47
2024-03-15	9.62	12.34	-32.63	174707930	Downward Expansion	-50	50
2024-03-08	9.54	12.58	-34.08	188387556	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2024-03-01	9.59	12.82	-34.37	201650185	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2024-02-23	9.38	13.03	-36.41	211265085	Downward Expansion	-68	83
2024-02-09	8.54	13.26	-40.38	268849281	Downward Expansion	-85	93
2024-02-02	8.21	13.50	-40.90	316286186	Downward Expansion	-95	96
2024-01-26	10.04	13.75	-33.35	167790428	Downward Expansion	-83	90
2024-01-19	10.27	13.95	-31.03	178946580	Downward Expansion	-84	72
2024-01-12	10.92	14.15	-29.02	138671618	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-01-05	11.14	14.31	-29.73	78787715	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2023-12-29	11.80	14.50	-27.57	143749311	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2023-12-22	11.26	14.67	-30.27	111271902	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2023-12-15	11.29	14.87	-31.62	107087429	Downward Expansion	-86	92
2023-12-08	12.04	15.06	-28.68	120475859	Downward Expansion	-81	84
2023-12-01	12.38	15.21	-29.09	90666430	Downward Expansion	-80	72
2023-11-24	13.11	15.44	-26.08	74843283	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2023-11-17	13.59	15.65	-24.61	64440546	Downward Expansion	-61	62
2023-11-10	13.68	15.87	-24.60	85350428	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2023-11-03	13.22	16.10	-27.84	108075834	Downward Expansion	-76	61
2023-10-27	13.42	16.36	-27.40	117150276	Downward Expansion	-75	50
2023-10-20	14.30	16.60	-22.67	64714858	Downward Expansion	-64	45
2023-10-13	14.71	16.81	-23.75	80150043	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2023-09-29	14.85	17.05	-24.15	55904378	Downward Expansion	-63	51

Price vs TrendBelow-27.0%

Trend directionFalling-21.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-22.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-33.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.9%

Price momentumNegative-42.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.80×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-72 / ±100

+5.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

67 /100

-23.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

601615 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance9

Rotation Up29

Upward Expansion12

Deceleration58

Rotation Down59

Downward Expansion88

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 13%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 41%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-10-09	Established	-21.0%
Deceleration	2026-05-22	2026-06-12	New	-29.1%
Rotation Down	2026-05-01	2026-05-15	New	-3.3%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-24	Developing	-6.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-03-20	Developing	-0.5%
Deceleration	2025-11-14	2026-01-09	Developing	+23.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-11-07	Established	+35.3%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-07-25	New	+3.3%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-07-11	New	+3.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-06-27	Developing	+12.7%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-04-11	New	-11.7%
Deceleration	2025-02-28	2025-03-21	New	+11.9%
Rotation Down	2025-02-07	2025-02-21	New	-3.5%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-01-31	New	-1.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution17

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 75/100
Current Relative Strength: -33.10
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -42.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -38.3%
Industrials regime cohort: 55th percentile314 in cohort

Test 601615 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.55×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.80×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 601615 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 9.64falling

Slow Activity CNY 11.45falling

Trend Reference CNY 13.01-27.0% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 12.18-22.0% close margin

Structural low CNY 9.22shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.6%

Annualized volatility +47.7%

From structural high -64.7%

From structural low +3.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	28	-3.2%-17.1% to +28.9%	+35.7%	+64.3%	-2.5%	+82.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-6.6%-25.0% to +72.7%	+40.0%	+60.0%	-8.9%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-0.9%-29.9% to +56.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-6.4%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-1.1%-52.4% to +67.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.7%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

601615 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map