Weekly structural research · NYSE · Energy

RIG Stage Analysis

Transocean Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 5.51Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -37−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 35/100directional strength

Maturity 15/100lifecycle context

Confidence 82/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +16.3%USD 4.74 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	5.51	5.87	-6.48	141552324	Balance	-37	35
2026-10-02	5.17	5.90	-10.71	205443718	Balance	-51	40
2026-09-25	5.38	5.92	-6.90	217150497	Balance	-38	19
2026-09-18	5.64	5.96	-0.62	252614739	Balance	-13	11
2026-09-11	5.67	5.99	0.43	170060258	Balance	-12	16
2026-09-04	5.85	6.02	3.45	202165407	Downward Expansion	-18	22
2026-08-28	5.80	6.00	3.44	169708601	Downward Expansion	-27	23
2026-08-21	5.92	5.97	6.87	192848718	Downward Expansion	-28	20
2026-08-14	5.76	5.94	3.38	269029323	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2026-08-07	5.26	5.89	-4.74	172466952	Rotation Down	-58	39
2026-07-31	5.32	5.85	0.24	274142489	Rotation Down	-31	32
2026-07-24	5.35	5.82	2.62	205080621	Rotation Down	-35	45
2026-07-17	5.14	5.77	-1.32	186410747	Rotation Down	-38	62
2026-07-10	5.20	5.73	-0.98	180023281	Rotation Down	-39	63
2026-07-03	5.06	5.70	-1.72	184555324	Rotation Down	-36	59
2026-06-26	5.11	5.68	2.06	177271443	Balance	-35	45
2026-06-19	5.31	5.65	4.34	155678997	Balance	-10	22
2026-06-12	6.04	5.61	20.52	111093802	Balance	16	13
2026-06-05	5.95	5.54	20.27	151877357	Upward Expansion	32	21
2026-05-29	6.19	5.47	23.19	129012443	Upward Expansion	52	35
2026-05-22	6.81	5.39	39.07	194441686	Upward Expansion	59	44
2026-05-15	7.04	5.30	47.09	142766367	Deceleration	68	45
2026-05-08	6.40	5.17	36.05	210765142	Deceleration	41	27
2026-05-01	6.84	5.06	50.65	226262557	Deceleration	58	36
2026-04-24	6.11	4.94	38.05	137108580	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-04-17	5.94	4.85	36.74	146042289	Upward Expansion	49	42
2026-04-10	6.52	4.76	58.86	118847184	Upward Expansion	61	54
2026-04-03	6.59	4.65	69.21	162384438	Upward Expansion	66	58
2026-03-27	6.93	4.54	87.51	187807121	Upward Expansion	80	65
2026-03-20	6.22	4.41	67.36	199746241	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-03-13	6.36	4.30	70.26	173751093	Upward Expansion	70	68
2026-03-06	5.93	4.19	58.60	207561886	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-02-27	6.48	4.09	71.94	182080840	Upward Expansion	80	93
2026-02-20	6.52	3.97	74.85	277089907	Upward Expansion	91	96
2026-02-13	6.54	3.85	79.78	638363568	Upward Expansion	97	98
2026-02-06	5.39	3.72	48.26	209302728	Upward Expansion	89	90
2026-01-30	4.97	3.64	37.33	195055794	Upward Expansion	82	80
2026-01-23	4.83	3.56	34.29	147193602	Upward Expansion	82	67
2026-01-16	4.23	3.49	17.45	152587257	Upward Expansion	57	39
2026-01-09	4.25	3.44	17.27	172980343	Upward Expansion	51	35
2026-01-02	4.24	3.41	18.47	96389325	Upward Expansion	52	36
2025-12-26	4.02	3.36	10.93	82244279	Upward Expansion	56	42
2025-12-19	3.97	3.31	11.04	182126701	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-12-12	4.13	3.26	15.57	159475231	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-12-05	4.44	3.21	23.35	135459690	Upward Expansion	76	68
2025-11-28	4.41	3.15	22.83	127197729	Upward Expansion	81	76
2025-11-21	3.89	3.08	11.97	202977642	Upward Expansion	65	73
2025-11-14	4.01	3.03	12.51	217959919	Upward Expansion	73	82
2025-11-07	3.98	2.98	11.29	212713346	Upward Expansion	78	81
2025-10-31	3.84	2.92	5.01	302007651	Upward Expansion	75	66
2025-10-24	3.90	2.86	6.69	397719462	Upward Expansion	80	55
2025-10-17	3.26	2.84	-9.57	287969625	Upward Expansion	55	32
2025-10-10	3.08	2.84	-13.82	249812143	Upward Expansion	54	35
2025-10-03	3.37	2.84	-8.88	249719365	Upward Expansion	65	58
2025-09-26	3.19	2.82	-13.75	398437032	Upward Expansion	59	54
2025-09-19	3.32	2.82	-11.34	168585772	Upward Expansion	69	63
2025-09-12	3.30	2.82	-11.72	116289209	Upward Expansion	71	58
2025-09-05	3.07	2.82	-17.26	96250774	Upward Expansion	29	31
2025-08-29	3.03	2.84	-18.87	110920131	Balance	28	35
2025-08-22	3.04	2.87	-19.65	97894380	Balance	27	33
2025-08-15	2.95	2.90	-22.88	96842582	Balance	24	27
2025-08-08	3.10	2.94	-19.43	137147580	Balance	4	13
2025-08-01	2.82	2.97	-26.06	134234154	Balance	-14	9
2025-07-25	3.00	3.00	-24.50	150421327	Balance	-10	7
2025-07-18	2.63	3.02	-34.04	174811006	Balance	-32	20
2025-07-11	2.85	3.05	-29.26	184522020	Balance	-11	8
2025-07-04	2.77	3.09	-32.44	112520930	Balance	-11	16
2025-06-27	2.58	3.13	-36.91	203645573	Balance	-18	19
2025-06-20	2.91	3.19	-27.57	207122311	Balance	-10	17
2025-06-13	3.32	3.24	-18.59	261171047	Downward Expansion	-5	13
2025-06-06	2.76	3.27	-33.33	260416417	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2025-05-30	2.49	3.33	-39.80	129414998	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2025-05-23	2.49	3.39	-39.99	167857277	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2025-05-16	2.61	3.44	-39.79	199821402	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-05-09	2.61	3.50	-37.77	208506702	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-05-02	2.37	3.55	-44.68	213061112	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2025-04-25	2.33	3.63	-44.98	165936746	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2025-04-18	2.28	3.69	-44.71	165962573	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2025-04-11	2.26	3.77	-46.92	335585881	Downward Expansion	-82	73
2025-04-04	2.17	3.83	-47.16	257868907	Downward Expansion	-90	68
2025-03-28	3.20	3.90	-30.54	139252721	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2025-03-21	3.19	3.95	-32.77	191863759	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2025-03-14	3.04	4.01	-36.47	209921413	Downward Expansion	-72	83
2025-03-07	3.04	4.08	-38.76	221630747	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2025-02-28	2.95	4.15	-43.05	177494695	Downward Expansion	-86	86
2025-02-21	3.36	4.22	-36.47	147058470	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2025-02-14	3.53	4.31	-34.85	133355484	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2025-02-07	3.58	4.36	-33.54	146600107	Downward Expansion	-68	40
2025-01-31	3.92	4.42	-28.04	134645266	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2025-01-24	3.85	4.46	-30.63	83397118	Downward Expansion	-44	24
2025-01-17	4.06	4.51	-26.43	124784339	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-01-10	4.03	4.55	-25.51	118878958	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2025-01-03	3.96	4.59	-28.94	97295140	Downward Expansion	-62	72
2024-12-27	3.53	4.63	-37.82	74546931	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2024-12-20	3.53	4.72	-38.36	134081480	Downward Expansion	-79	73
2024-12-13	3.86	4.80	-34.82	123238866	Downward Expansion	-67	43
2024-12-06	4.02	4.87	-33.40	100081660	Downward Expansion	-63	35
2024-11-29	4.40	4.93	-27.35	50742040	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2024-11-22	4.47	4.97	-26.34	83215429	Downward Expansion	-42	25
2024-11-15	4.22	5.01	-30.23	96600403	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2024-11-08	4.47	5.06	-28.62	112644977	Downward Expansion	-57	39
2024-11-01	4.24	5.12	-30.08	116793535	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2024-10-25	4.14	5.19	-33.70	90855531	Downward Expansion	-65	45
2024-10-18	4.24	5.27	-33.80	72046628	Downward Expansion	-64	43
2024-10-11	4.30	5.32	-33.45	72284430	Downward Expansion	-63	43
2024-10-04	4.67	5.37	-28.22	109103039	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2024-09-27	4.31	5.39	-34.67	91571792	Downward Expansion	-66	75
2024-09-20	4.54	5.42	-32.14	123742239	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2024-09-13	4.13	5.42	-38.51	131532487	Downward Expansion	-81	85
2024-09-06	4.12	5.45	-37.37	104008871	Downward Expansion	-86	79
2024-08-30	4.74	5.48	-32.11	73530985	Downward Expansion	-67	59
2024-08-23	4.97	5.50	-29.78	87758895	Balance	-61	47
2024-08-16	5.18	5.52	-26.78	78217504	Balance	-50	25
2024-08-09	5.18	5.53	-24.95	94617858	Balance	-42	21
2024-08-02	5.20	5.54	-25.73	103681260	Balance	-14	9
2024-07-26	5.80	5.57	-20.03	92847093	Downward Expansion	2	7
2024-07-19	5.27	5.59	-28.80	73263154	Downward Expansion	-52	36
2024-07-12	5.30	5.63	-30.65	77565763	Downward Expansion	-46	48
2024-07-05	5.10	5.65	-33.39	53209277	Downward Expansion	-51	57
2024-06-28	5.35	5.68	-29.63	200568112	Balance	-43	46
2024-06-21	5.15	5.72	-32.87	67063108	Balance	-49	44
2024-06-14	5.17	5.76	-32.60	68743634	Balance	-48	26
2024-06-07	5.40	5.81	-28.91	97502034	Balance	-12	6
2024-05-31	6.20	5.85	-17.86	63335935	Balance	27	16
2024-05-24	5.77	5.87	-24.25	63607889	Balance	-9	8
2024-05-17	6.03	5.90	-21.27	63551173	Balance	-3	7
2024-05-10	5.76	5.94	-23.85	67348831	Balance	-29	21
2024-05-03	5.57	6.00	-25.32	134026352	Balance	-30	17
2024-04-26	5.87	6.07	-21.27	77984066	Balance	-5	14
2024-04-19	5.67	6.15	-22.23	88294203	Rotation Up	-3	21
2024-04-12	6.18	6.23	-18.21	109145439	Rotation Up	21	35
2024-04-05	6.53	6.30	-15.28	106710500	Downward Expansion	17	34
2024-03-29	6.28	6.36	-19.58	57940147	Downward Expansion	-2	21
2024-03-22	5.97	6.43	-23.64	84062994	Downward Expansion	-29	23
2024-03-15	5.80	6.49	-24.46	110942943	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2024-03-08	5.25	6.57	-31.95	88577989	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2024-03-01	5.09	6.68	-34.78	79149587	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2024-02-23	4.67	6.79	-40.25	85733073	Downward Expansion	-79	84
2024-02-16	4.89	6.92	-37.02	97675065	Downward Expansion	-77	78
2024-02-09	5.15	7.03	-34.52	77183666	Downward Expansion	-73	81
2024-02-02	5.14	7.12	-34.39	102085352	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2024-01-26	5.71	7.20	-26.67	79366511	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2024-01-19	5.34	7.25	-31.12	64040709	Downward Expansion	-79	74
2024-01-12	5.57	7.27	-27.66	90757200	Downward Expansion	-76	54
2024-01-05	6.14	7.29	-19.03	41550839	Downward Expansion	-62	46
2023-12-29	6.35	7.29	-17.54	43530052	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2023-12-22	6.36	7.30	-16.99	72666144	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2023-12-15	6.11	7.30	-19.42	111143968	Rotation Down	-68	64
2023-12-08	5.85	7.29	-20.84	97438791	Rotation Down	-53	60
2023-12-01	6.56	7.29	-10.69	74552128	Rotation Down	-37	50
2023-11-24	6.56	7.28	-9.53	42986703	Rotation Down	-38	53
2023-11-17	6.50	7.26	-9.01	70984899	Rotation Down	-32	59
2023-11-10	6.65	7.24	-4.31	81876437	Rotation Down	-30	56
2023-11-03	6.84	7.24	0.23	92660771	Deceleration	-25	45
2023-10-27	6.55	7.22	2.19	61793026	Deceleration	-34	34
2023-10-20	7.16	7.21	9.80	68860430	Deceleration	-0	11

Price vs TrendBelow-6.1%

Trend directionRising+0.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+16.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+11.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.5%

Price momentumNegative-15.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.61×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-37 / ±100

-25.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

35 /100

+19.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

RIG Directional State ↗ RIG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance46

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration47

Rotation Down52

Downward Expansion69

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 42%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-11	2026-10-09	Developing	-2.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	+1.6%
Rotation Down	2026-07-03	2026-08-07	Developing	+4.0%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-06-26	New	-15.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-06-05	New	-12.6%
Deceleration	2026-05-01	2026-05-15	New	+2.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2026-04-24	Extended	+99.0%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-08-29	Developing	+4.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-30	2025-06-13	Extended	-30.0%
Balance	2024-08-02	2024-08-23	New	-4.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-07-26	New	+13.7%
Balance	2024-04-26	2024-06-28	Developing	-8.9%
Rotation Up	2024-04-12	2024-04-19	New	-8.3%
Downward Expansion	2023-12-22	2024-04-05	Established	+2.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing56

Stage 2 · Advancing21

Stage 3 · Distribution58

Stage 4 · Declining79

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 82/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.48
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -15.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -30.4%
Energy regime cohort: 92th percentile39 in cohort

Test RIG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.76×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.61×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore RIG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 5.42falling

Slow Activity USD 5.65falling

Trend Reference USD 5.87-6.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 4.74+16.3% close margin

Structural low USD 4.80shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.3%

Annualized volatility +41.4%

From structural high -28.1%

From structural low +78.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	+0.3%-30.6% to +35.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.7%	+44.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+5.6%-18.5% to +35.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+2.1%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+7.7%-29.5% to +111.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+2.7%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+40.9%-60.3% to +137.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+30.0%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

RIG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map