Weekly structural research · NZE · Real Estate

NZL Stage Analysis

New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close NZD 0.935Tenure NewBenchmark ^NZ50

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 36−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 23/100directional strength

Maturity 14/100lifecycle context

Confidence 51/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +6.6%NZD 0.8775 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.935	0.9284	-4.99	150055	Balance	36	23
2026-09-25	0.94	0.9305	-5.52	49420	Balance	10	13
2026-09-18	0.95	0.9322	-4.16	269694	Balance	-14	9
2026-09-11	0.93	0.9322	-5.13	129917	Downward Expansion	-39	19
2026-09-04	0.9166	0.9328	-9.22	180021	Downward Expansion	-50	42
2026-08-28	0.9067	0.9348	-8.98	20401	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2026-08-21	0.9215	0.9378	-9.05	16777	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2026-08-14	0.887	0.9411	-11.93	105199	Balance	-69	51
2026-08-07	0.9363	0.9465	-7.08	25083	Balance	-32	20
2026-07-31	0.925	0.9504	-7.46	37098	Balance	-37	27
2026-07-24	0.92	0.9544	-8.47	19119	Balance	-39	23
2026-07-17	0.935	0.9586	-6.48	17709	Balance	-24	11
2026-07-10	0.91	0.9609	-9.56	488883	Balance	-38	17
2026-07-03	0.96	0.9641	-3.51	320020	Balance	-1	12
2026-06-26	0.97	0.967	-1.56	2841	Balance	3	12
2026-06-19	0.94	0.969	-4.56	66640	Downward Expansion	-15	15
2026-06-12	0.93	0.9718	-4.85	47156	Downward Expansion	-27	20
2026-06-05	0.95	0.9751	-1.06	93264	Downward Expansion	-30	20
2026-05-29	0.955	0.9789	-1.08	398445	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2026-05-22	0.9317	0.9825	-1.53	331283	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2026-05-15	0.912	0.9876	-3.34	1040874	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2026-05-08	0.907	0.9904	-5.34	2194174	Downward Expansion	-62	48
2026-05-01	0.8922	0.9937	-5.87	1084026	Downward Expansion	-73	58
2026-04-24	0.907	0.9972	-3.12	912392	Downward Expansion	-69	62
2026-04-17	0.9366	0.9992	-0.24	542286	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2026-04-10	0.907	0.9993	-5.36	447637	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2026-04-03	0.907	1.00	-3.36	464047	Downward Expansion	-78	77
2026-03-27	0.9366	1.00	-0.46	694517	Downward Expansion	-72	60
2026-03-20	0.9391	1.00	-0.56	194241	Rotation Down	-73	46
2026-03-13	0.9582	1.00	0.04	159100	Rotation Down	-39	33
2026-03-06	0.9966	1.00	1.62	77177	Rotation Down	-31	46
2026-02-27	0.9918	1.00	-0.23	3053449	Rotation Down	-34	59
2026-02-20	0.9486	0.9974	-1.41	749645	Rotation Down	-35	60
2026-02-13	0.9486	0.9949	-0.44	531756	Upward Expansion	-37	44
2026-02-06	0.9774	0.9923	0.90	564025	Upward Expansion	-4	14
2026-01-30	0.9966	0.9891	3.21	187471	Upward Expansion	12	9
2026-01-23	1.02	0.985	5.81	313682	Upward Expansion	52	34
2026-01-16	1.05	0.9803	7.02	283668	Upward Expansion	57	39
2026-01-09	1.05	0.9744	8.08	72333	Deceleration	62	37
2026-01-02	1.04	0.9677	8.68	24731	Deceleration	56	29
2025-12-26	1.04	0.962	9.26	344088	Deceleration	46	26
2025-12-19	1.01	0.9556	7.23	721027	Deceleration	36	21
2025-12-12	1.01	0.9508	6.98	880363	Deceleration	42	29
2025-12-05	1.04	0.9464	10.75	302737	Upward Expansion	50	38
2025-11-28	1.03	0.9397	9.59	135598	Upward Expansion	49	42
2025-11-21	1.03	0.9341	10.05	669295	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-11-14	1.03	0.9287	10.59	280733	Upward Expansion	67	76
2025-11-07	1.06	0.9228	13.43	118760	Upward Expansion	74	87
2025-10-31	1.06	0.9158	14.26	299597	Upward Expansion	79	85
2025-10-24	1.08	0.9088	18.14	1328991	Upward Expansion	90	88
2025-10-17	0.9966	0.9014	10.08	973706	Upward Expansion	67	71
2025-10-10	1.01	0.8962	9.94	262697	Upward Expansion	75	62
2025-10-03	0.9966	0.8903	8.81	196400	Upward Expansion	78	57
2025-09-26	0.9678	0.8853	9.14	109279	Upward Expansion	69	49
2025-09-19	0.9391	0.8804	5.15	679292	Upward Expansion	59	48
2025-09-12	0.9534	0.8771	6.88	190752	Upward Expansion	64	71
2025-09-05	0.9377	0.8733	5.37	405787	Upward Expansion	65	82
2025-08-29	0.9565	0.8706	10.04	212201	Upward Expansion	68	85
2025-08-22	0.9846	0.8661	12.57	208081	Upward Expansion	88	90
2025-08-15	0.9565	0.8606	10.98	317958	Upward Expansion	83	75
2025-08-08	0.919	0.8561	7.31	2749294	Upward Expansion	71	42
2025-08-01	0.8721	0.8525	2.95	1273282	Upward Expansion	47	25
2025-07-25	0.8721	0.8508	2.06	112223	Upward Expansion	50	28
2025-07-18	0.8721	0.8491	1.88	206653	Upward Expansion	52	38
2025-07-11	0.8815	0.8475	4.61	194629	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-07-04	0.8721	0.8455	2.92	57200	Upward Expansion	51	30
2025-06-27	0.8815	0.8438	5.63	114576	Upward Expansion	61	38
2025-06-20	0.8721	0.8417	4.68	162299	Upward Expansion	56	28
2025-06-13	0.8533	0.8403	2.59	2063677	Upward Expansion	47	24
2025-06-06	0.8721	0.8392	4.78	134260	Upward Expansion	60	34
2025-05-30	0.8533	0.8381	3.76	113519	Upward Expansion	50	26
2025-05-23	0.8627	0.8367	3.42	195226	Upward Expansion	53	32
2025-05-16	0.8721	0.8353	2.96	2107341	Upward Expansion	65	39
2025-05-09	0.844	0.8345	1.08	190138	Upward Expansion	52	30
2025-05-02	0.8627	0.8344	5.54	210421	Upward Expansion	59	40
2025-04-25	0.8627	0.8336	8.27	95779	Upward Expansion	61	46
2025-04-18	0.8533	0.8325	6.28	51874	Upward Expansion	55	51
2025-04-11	0.8533	0.8323	7.13	240498	Upward Expansion	57	52
2025-04-04	0.8533	0.8317	5.36	248732	Upward Expansion	56	44
2025-03-28	0.8627	0.8313	5.94	85828	Balance	65	45
2025-03-21	0.8389	0.8298	4.51	221823	Balance	20	11
2025-03-14	0.8298	0.829	2.10	264178	Upward Expansion	44	20
2025-03-07	0.848	0.8286	3.10	93958	Upward Expansion	57	34
2025-02-28	0.8207	0.827	-1.89	524711	Upward Expansion	30	28
2025-02-21	0.8389	0.8265	-1.00	63015	Upward Expansion	42	44
2025-02-14	0.8389	0.8261	-2.92	710266	Balance	42	39
2025-02-07	0.8571	0.825	-0.28	65701	Balance	55	33
2025-01-31	0.8207	0.8237	-5.36	57653	Balance	-18	13
2025-01-24	0.8207	0.822	-5.80	495745	Balance	-18	13
2025-01-17	0.8207	0.8213	-6.73	206007	Balance	-20	16
2025-01-10	0.8115	0.8206	-6.29	95019	Balance	-19	14
2025-01-03	0.8207	0.8201	-6.50	134163	Balance	7	7
2024-12-27	0.8207	0.8197	-7.51	25401	Balance	9	10
2024-12-20	0.8252	0.8195	-4.88	215684	Balance	11	8
2024-12-13	0.8207	0.8192	-4.29	206771	Balance	11	8
2024-12-06	0.8207	0.8185	-4.71	154796	Balance	10	8
2024-11-29	0.8207	0.8187	-6.63	36274	Balance	12	6
2024-11-22	0.8298	0.8191	-5.46	2388159	Upward Expansion	27	14
2024-11-15	0.8207	0.8187	-3.92	103669	Upward Expansion	23	16
2024-11-08	0.8389	0.8194	-2.52	24185	Upward Expansion	38	17
2024-11-01	0.8115	0.8193	-4.17	193503	Upward Expansion	22	12
2024-10-25	0.8207	0.8206	-4.77	618917	Upward Expansion	38	22
2024-10-18	0.848	0.8214	-2.11	37848	Upward Expansion	61	39
2024-10-11	0.8389	0.8207	-3.32	104775	Rotation Up	55	38
2024-10-04	0.8389	0.8208	-1.62	28760	Rotation Up	28	32
2024-09-27	0.8298	0.821	-1.40	49424	Rotation Up	28	41
2024-09-20	0.848	0.8202	0.59	100148	Rotation Up	29	42
2024-09-13	0.8344	0.8192	-3.75	100796	Balance	19	31
2024-09-06	0.8434	0.8186	-1.08	246893	Balance	25	23
2024-08-30	0.8165	0.8189	-2.93	719087	Balance	-10	6
2024-08-23	0.8165	0.8201	-3.50	880935	Balance	-13	6
2024-08-16	0.8165	0.8204	-4.99	484272	Balance	-22	12
2024-08-09	0.7985	0.8204	-3.43	215724	Balance	-33	17
2024-08-02	0.8075	0.8189	-4.01	224367	Balance	-27	18
2024-07-26	0.8254	0.8171	-1.13	221347	Rotation Down	-24	12
2024-07-19	0.8075	0.8147	-3.13	138420	Rotation Down	-22	17
2024-07-12	0.8165	0.8126	-0.60	49512	Rotation Down	-25	25
2024-07-05	0.7716	0.8102	-3.35	139210	Rotation Down	-45	50
2024-06-28	0.7985	0.8096	0.65	34856	Deceleration	-29	34
2024-06-21	0.7985	0.8075	1.00	123252	Deceleration	-20	26
2024-06-14	0.7985	0.8054	-0.54	114978	Deceleration	-1	18
2024-06-07	0.8075	0.8039	0.68	134048	Deceleration	5	13
2024-05-31	0.8165	0.8021	1.68	420669	Deceleration	12	13
2024-05-24	0.8165	0.7997	2.47	571479	Deceleration	14	12
2024-05-17	0.7985	0.797	1.01	344418	Deceleration	5	10
2024-05-10	0.8254	0.7946	4.10	62556	Deceleration	34	16
2024-05-03	0.8344	0.7919	3.81	201013	Deceleration	37	20
2024-04-26	0.8165	0.789	2.86	47652	Upward Expansion	40	24
2024-04-19	0.8434	0.7869	6.42	113352	Upward Expansion	56	37
2024-04-12	0.8344	0.7845	4.21	71677	Upward Expansion	54	35
2024-04-05	0.8524	0.7818	5.77	75419	Upward Expansion	63	43
2024-03-29	0.8434	0.7785	3.82	103556	Upward Expansion	61	43
2024-03-22	0.8254	0.7746	2.59	120644	Upward Expansion	55	39
2024-03-15	0.8434	0.7719	6.51	164237	Upward Expansion	65	44
2024-03-08	0.8434	0.7689	5.03	312482	Upward Expansion	69	44
2024-03-01	0.8075	0.7668	1.98	100183	Upward Expansion	59	46
2024-02-23	0.8165	0.7668	3.10	82501	Upward Expansion	65	72
2024-02-16	0.8165	0.7668	2.84	339110	Upward Expansion	67	84
2024-02-09	0.8524	0.7668	5.86	130181	Rotation Up	83	93
2024-02-02	0.8524	0.7653	5.13	140851	Rotation Up	64	82
2024-01-26	0.8254	0.7635	2.14	453041	Rotation Up	59	72
2024-01-19	0.8165	0.7623	2.64	241165	Rotation Up	46	52
2024-01-12	0.7537	0.7617	-7.01	213536	Balance	-10	8
2024-01-05	0.7537	0.7626	-6.51	34184	Balance	-14	8
2023-12-29	0.7537	0.7644	-7.05	19751	Balance	-19	10
2023-12-22	0.7447	0.7656	-7.54	111321	Downward Expansion	-39	19
2023-12-15	0.7447	0.7671	-7.25	210608	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2023-12-08	0.7537	0.7674	-6.13	63444	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2023-12-01	0.7357	0.7677	-7.74	344954	Downward Expansion	-43	23
2023-11-24	0.7357	0.7689	-6.82	67619	Downward Expansion	-44	21
2023-11-17	0.7537	0.771	-4.66	83935	Downward Expansion	-38	20
2023-11-10	0.7537	0.7728	-4.72	168262	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2023-11-03	0.7447	0.7749	-6.01	411457	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2023-10-27	0.7357	0.7785	-4.47	191482	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2023-10-20	0.7267	0.783	-7.96	290939	Downward Expansion	-67	43
2023-10-13	0.7447	0.7878	-8.45	266489	Downward Expansion	-56	32

Price vs TrendAbove+0.7%

Trend directionFalling-2.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+6.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-4.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.5%

Price momentumPositive+3.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.81×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

36 / ±100

+86.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

23 /100

-18.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NZL Directional State ↗ NZL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up55

Upward Expansion66

Deceleration60

Rotation Down12

Downward Expansion10

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 18%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	-1.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-11	New	+0.9%
Balance	2026-06-26	2026-08-14	Developing	-8.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-06-19	Established	+0.4%
Rotation Down	2026-02-20	2026-03-20	Developing	-1.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-02-13	Developing	-9.6%
Deceleration	2025-12-12	2026-01-09	Developing	+4.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-12-05	Extended	+22.4%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-03-28	New	+2.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-1.1%
Balance	2024-11-29	2025-02-14	Developing	+2.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-18	2024-11-22	Developing	-2.2%
Rotation Up	2024-09-20	2024-10-11	New	-1.1%
Balance	2024-08-02	2024-09-13	Developing	+3.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing49

Stage 2 · Advancing28

Stage 3 · Distribution56

Stage 4 · Declining72

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^NZ50

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 26/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.99
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +3.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -2.9%
Real Estate regime cohort: 50th percentile2 in cohort

Test NZL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.08×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.81×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NZL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity NZD 0.9374rising

Slow Activity NZD 0.9287rising

Trend Reference NZD 0.9284+0.7% close margin

Current Fair Value NZD 0.8775+6.6% close margin

Structural low NZD 0.8821shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.0%

Annualized volatility +17.3%

From structural high -14.8%

From structural low +6.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^NZ50	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	+0.0%-10.0% to +9.5%	+47.1%	+47.1%	+1.0%	+58.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-0.9%-8.2% to +11.9%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-0.4%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+1.6%-14.3% to +6.3%	+60.0%	+60.0%	-2.7%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+8.9%-21.0% to +27.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-3.3%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NZL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map