Weekly structural research · TOR · Energy

MGA Stage Analysis

Mega Uranium Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close CAD 0.55Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GSPTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -45−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 31/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +32.1%CAD 0.4163 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	0.55	0.6073	-9.25	2019500	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2026-09-18	0.54	0.6113	-10.83	7805600	Downward Expansion	-45	19
2026-09-11	0.57	0.6173	-5.37	2701300	Downward Expansion	-17	20
2026-09-04	0.62	0.618	1.17	2971400	Downward Expansion	14	27
2026-08-28	0.64	0.617	5.08	5071000	Downward Expansion	-7	23
2026-08-21	0.63	0.619	4.05	872800	Downward Expansion	-19	20
2026-08-14	0.61	0.621	1.27	516400	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2026-08-07	0.57	0.622	-3.68	534000	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2026-07-31	0.52	0.6227	-8.61	2674800	Downward Expansion	-68	71
2026-07-24	0.53	0.6247	-6.70	471100	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2026-07-17	0.51	0.6233	-9.55	269600	Rotation Down	-75	74
2026-07-10	0.55	0.6237	-2.16	152300	Rotation Down	-37	49
2026-07-03	0.56	0.6193	0.46	28100	Rotation Down	-34	44
2026-06-26	0.55	0.6153	0.09	142800	Balance	-29	30
2026-06-19	0.63	0.61	15.48	455200	Balance	8	13
2026-06-12	0.61	0.601	13.01	469600	Balance	16	18
2026-06-05	0.58	0.5933	10.03	2101000	Balance	13	13
2026-05-29	0.68	0.587	28.57	1720300	Upward Expansion	37	20
2026-05-22	0.62	0.5793	19.58	2503100	Upward Expansion	47	27
2026-05-15	0.69	0.5723	36.84	5184900	Upward Expansion	57	51
2026-05-08	0.74	0.563	47.68	4349400	Upward Expansion	64	66
2026-05-01	0.71	0.5523	44.49	3650000	Upward Expansion	58	60
2026-04-24	0.72	0.5427	48.39	4216800	Deceleration	60	49
2026-04-17	0.74	0.533	52.58	9301600	Deceleration	63	33
2026-04-10	0.64	0.5213	36.44	3145100	Deceleration	26	15
2026-04-03	0.58	0.511	27.09	4662700	Deceleration	25	18
2026-03-27	0.55	0.502	25.96	3933800	Deceleration	27	19
2026-03-20	0.56	0.494	32.13	8188500	Deceleration	37	20
2026-03-13	0.61	0.485	39.67	4037400	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-03-06	0.61	0.4737	39.01	5710600	Upward Expansion	47	36
2026-02-27	0.67	0.4623	48.72	2880400	Upward Expansion	62	45
2026-02-20	0.72	0.449	64.43	4448400	Upward Expansion	76	55
2026-02-13	0.59	0.4353	39.88	4744600	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-02-06	0.59	0.4257	43.79	8108900	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-01-30	0.70	0.415	75.23	12499100	Upward Expansion	80	90
2026-01-23	0.69	0.401	68.59	7014800	Upward Expansion	86	93
2026-01-16	0.64	0.387	58.72	5330600	Upward Expansion	84	89
2026-01-09	0.59	0.3747	49.60	5512300	Upward Expansion	81	85
2026-01-02	0.58	0.3643	51.58	3958500	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-12-26	0.49	0.355	28.30	1680000	Upward Expansion	68	69
2025-12-19	0.52	0.348	37.65	9452100	Deceleration	78	59
2025-12-12	0.42	0.34	12.45	2902800	Deceleration	53	29
2025-12-05	0.44	0.3347	18.51	5576200	Deceleration	50	25
2025-11-28	0.39	0.3293	4.75	2323500	Deceleration	33	21
2025-11-21	0.36	0.3257	0.22	3176600	Deceleration	38	23
2025-11-14	0.38	0.323	4.57	2250100	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-11-07	0.39	0.3193	8.61	3853800	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-10-31	0.45	0.3157	23.74	5371200	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-10-24	0.41	0.3093	12.62	3642300	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-10-17	0.41	0.3043	13.32	6137700	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-10-10	0.42	0.3007	16.69	4685100	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-10-03	0.42	0.2953	14.42	6675000	Upward Expansion	84	94
2025-09-26	0.43	0.2903	19.97	7623300	Upward Expansion	95	97
2025-09-19	0.39	0.285	8.97	3737900	Upward Expansion	91	88
2025-09-12	0.33	0.2813	-6.06	3517900	Upward Expansion	71	69
2025-09-05	0.31	0.2803	-11.13	1563400	Balance	58	51
2025-08-29	0.31	0.28	-9.66	2498900	Balance	58	28
2025-08-22	0.29	0.281	-14.96	4015500	Balance	5	9
2025-08-15	0.27	0.2827	-19.89	2361500	Balance	-38	16
2025-08-08	0.27	0.285	-19.73	2595200	Balance	-16	11
2025-08-01	0.27	0.287	-17.85	6403800	Balance	4	11
2025-07-25	0.31	0.2903	-7.62	2854400	Balance	23	30
2025-07-18	0.30	0.291	-10.33	2961000	Balance	-4	3
2025-07-11	0.27	0.2923	-18.77	1709600	Balance	-38	23
2025-07-04	0.28	0.295	-16.62	1295600	Balance	-32	18
2025-06-27	0.27	0.298	-19.09	2443200	Balance	-35	15
2025-06-20	0.27	0.3017	-19.06	5452300	Balance	-25	11
2025-06-13	0.28	0.306	-16.73	2471700	Balance	-17	11
2025-06-06	0.30	0.308	-11.29	1515500	Balance	-12	8
2025-05-30	0.28	0.3093	-17.08	3706200	Balance	-34	19
2025-05-23	0.28	0.311	-17.03	1475200	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-05-16	0.26	0.3137	-24.03	1240600	Downward Expansion	-57	30
2025-05-09	0.28	0.318	-17.14	1487000	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2025-05-02	0.28	0.3197	-16.73	1273700	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2025-04-25	0.28	0.3213	-16.49	1142100	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2025-04-18	0.27	0.3227	-18.44	806000	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2025-04-11	0.28	0.323	-13.90	3123500	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2025-04-04	0.26	0.323	-19.30	10516100	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2025-03-28	0.26	0.3227	-25.24	2275600	Downward Expansion	-68	49
2025-03-21	0.30	0.3233	-15.08	3619100	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2025-03-14	0.26	0.323	-25.65	1590500	Rotation Down	-71	73
2025-03-07	0.27	0.3233	-24.17	1514500	Rotation Down	-41	62
2025-02-28	0.27	0.3233	-26.80	1498000	Rotation Down	-44	63
2025-02-21	0.28	0.3233	-24.14	1160000	Rotation Down	-33	50
2025-02-14	0.30	0.3243	-20.48	1769600	Balance	-24	34
2025-02-07	0.30	0.3247	-21.27	3126500	Balance	-4	15
2025-01-31	0.34	0.3267	-12.23	4106900	Balance	14	10
2025-01-24	0.34	0.3263	-13.25	2726700	Balance	17	8
2025-01-17	0.34	0.3257	-12.89	1471500	Balance	25	14
2025-01-10	0.33	0.3253	-15.60	2194800	Balance	23	15
2025-01-03	0.37	0.326	-7.65	2928200	Balance	39	21
2024-12-27	0.33	0.326	-17.20	1241500	Rotation Up	30	18
2024-12-20	0.34	0.3283	-14.64	5139100	Rotation Up	39	24
2024-12-13	0.35	0.3303	-15.16	820100	Rotation Up	55	51
2024-12-06	0.37	0.332	-12.45	1389100	Rotation Up	29	42
2024-11-29	0.38	0.332	-10.74	2234300	Rotation Up	36	36
2024-11-22	0.40	0.3327	-5.70	6044500	Rotation Up	47	32
2024-11-15	0.34	0.332	-18.46	3639100	Rotation Up	15	17
2024-11-08	0.34	0.3327	-18.60	1461400	Rotation Up	21	41
2024-11-01	0.33	0.334	-19.72	1574800	Rotation Up	24	44
2024-10-25	0.36	0.3373	-13.62	2119100	Rotation Up	27	45
2024-10-18	0.39	0.337	-7.96	3650800	Downward Expansion	42	40
2024-10-11	0.33	0.3363	-21.19	750200	Downward Expansion	-12	18
2024-10-04	0.33	0.3383	-20.59	4053500	Downward Expansion	-20	17
2024-09-27	0.32	0.3407	-22.77	3407000	Downward Expansion	-36	25
2024-09-20	0.28	0.3433	-32.51	2270100	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-09-13	0.28	0.3467	-32.06	2667200	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2024-09-06	0.25	0.352	-37.56	1587900	Downward Expansion	-73	55
2024-08-30	0.28	0.359	-32.02	2326300	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2024-08-23	0.29	0.367	-29.54	1565200	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2024-08-16	0.27	0.3733	-33.82	1886000	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2024-08-09	0.27	0.3817	-31.68	2675700	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-08-02	0.27	0.389	-31.47	5728400	Downward Expansion	-80	57
2024-07-26	0.31	0.3937	-23.36	2229200	Downward Expansion	-68	49
2024-07-19	0.31	0.397	-22.70	2751200	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2024-07-12	0.36	0.401	-9.83	1430200	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2024-07-05	0.33	0.403	-14.53	595500	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2024-06-28	0.32	0.407	-15.93	1492300	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2024-06-21	0.33	0.409	-11.55	2080500	Balance	-68	58
2024-06-14	0.35	0.4113	-5.98	1433700	Balance	-61	35
2024-06-07	0.37	0.413	-1.59	1626600	Balance	-42	18
2024-05-31	0.40	0.4123	6.01	1122600	Balance	-31	14
2024-05-24	0.40	0.411	6.73	1968200	Balance	-33	16
2024-05-17	0.40	0.408	7.13	2282600	Deceleration	-37	18
2024-05-10	0.37	0.406	0.78	6100300	Deceleration	-27	21
2024-05-03	0.40	0.4053	11.76	2879800	Deceleration	-13	15
2024-04-26	0.38	0.404	7.20	1521000	Deceleration	-23	17
2024-04-19	0.36	0.403	3.37	3461500	Deceleration	-36	26
2024-04-12	0.38	0.4023	9.68	7451900	Deceleration	-21	21
2024-04-05	0.43	0.401	23.37	4418400	Rotation Down	-13	19
2024-03-29	0.35	0.3963	2.17	5151200	Rotation Down	-36	49
2024-03-22	0.37	0.394	9.70	1850300	Deceleration	-29	34
2024-03-15	0.39	0.3907	17.46	2806500	Deceleration	-3	23
2024-03-08	0.40	0.386	22.34	2490100	Deceleration	12	25
2024-03-01	0.40	0.3813	24.71	3174700	Deceleration	16	22
2024-02-23	0.38	0.3763	20.55	3171800	Upward Expansion	21	15
2024-02-16	0.44	0.371	41.98	3294500	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-02-09	0.46	0.3633	51.98	3668600	Upward Expansion	63	63
2024-02-02	0.52	0.355	73.56	6578100	Upward Expansion	76	83
2024-01-26	0.48	0.344	62.79	2722200	Upward Expansion	65	69
2024-01-19	0.52	0.3347	80.98	5309600	Upward Expansion	84	68
2024-01-12	0.49	0.3237	73.05	4696400	Upward Expansion	81	57
2024-01-05	0.41	0.314	47.69	1906500	Upward Expansion	59	48
2023-12-29	0.41	0.3067	49.27	1772500	Upward Expansion	63	55
2023-12-22	0.43	0.2997	59.30	4468100	Upward Expansion	68	61
2023-12-15	0.42	0.2913	60.73	2764300	Upward Expansion	67	70
2023-12-08	0.45	0.2837	76.60	4818900	Upward Expansion	83	78
2023-12-01	0.38	0.2747	50.81	1793500	Upward Expansion	62	57
2023-11-24	0.40	0.2683	63.26	3234200	Upward Expansion	74	62
2023-11-17	0.40	0.261	65.05	2546300	Upward Expansion	78	55
2023-11-10	0.35	0.2537	50.25	1258900	Upward Expansion	52	40
2023-11-03	0.36	0.248	54.56	2100200	Upward Expansion	69	50
2023-10-27	0.31	0.242	42.29	1589200	Upward Expansion	60	51
2023-10-20	0.34	0.2383	54.05	1962000	Upward Expansion	65	63
2023-10-13	0.35	0.233	57.08	2008400	Upward Expansion	67	68
2023-10-06	0.36	0.2277	64.89	2829700	Upward Expansion	78	84

Price vs TrendBelow-9.4%

Trend directionFalling-2.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+32.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-8.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-9.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-9.3%

Price momentumPositive+0.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.57×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-45 / ±100

-37.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

31 /100

+7.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MGA Directional State ↗ MGA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance37

Rotation Up18

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration52

Rotation Down55

Downward Expansion68

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 31%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-09-25	Developing	+3.8%
Rotation Down	2026-07-03	2026-07-17	New	-8.9%
Balance	2026-06-05	2026-06-26	New	-5.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-05-29	Developing	-4.2%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-04-24	Developing	+28.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-03-13	Developing	+24.5%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2025-12-19	Developing	+44.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-11-14	Developing	+15.2%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-09-05	Established	+10.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-05-23	Developing	-6.7%
Rotation Down	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-7.1%
Balance	2025-01-03	2025-02-14	Developing	-18.9%
Rotation Up	2024-10-25	2024-12-27	Developing	-8.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-28	2024-10-18	Established	+21.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing10

Stage 3 · Distribution62

Stage 4 · Declining90

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GSPTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 89/100
Current Relative Strength: -9.25
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +0.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -12.0%
Energy regime cohort: 32th percentile19 in cohort

Test MGA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.04×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MGA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CAD 0.5667falling

Slow Activity CAD 0.5937falling

Trend Reference CAD 0.6073-9.4% close margin

Current Fair Value CAD 0.4163+32.1% close margin

Structural low CAD 0.49shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +9.8%

Annualized volatility +53.3%

From structural high -31.2%

From structural low +61.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GSPTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	-3.3%-14.3% to +39.3%	+33.3%	+55.6%	-6.4%	+72.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+0.0%-10.0% to +3.1%	+16.7%	+33.3%	-4.7%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+1.6%-13.0% to +30.0%	+50.0%	+25.0%	-7.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-16.5%-17.4% to -15.6%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-28.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MGA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map