Weekly structural research · ASX · Energy

WHC Stage Analysis

Whitehaven Coal Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 7.68Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -40−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 31/100directional strength

Maturity 17/100lifecycle context

Confidence 60/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +9.8%AUD 7.00 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	7.68	8.10	-3.15	15377553	Balance	-40	31
2026-10-02	7.59	8.16	-3.58	25175952	Balance	-41	21
2026-09-25	7.37	8.19	-5.91	19103360	Rotation Up	-33	20
2026-09-18	7.93	8.20	0.65	23872796	Rotation Up	15	28
2026-09-11	8.60	8.20	9.36	24609389	Downward Expansion	29	34
2026-09-04	8.39	8.20	4.22	3503905	Downward Expansion	-7	20
2026-08-28	8.28	8.21	2.36	4817569	Downward Expansion	-23	16
2026-08-21	7.70	8.23	-4.15	5675560	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-08-14	7.64	8.27	-5.21	2747418	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2026-08-07	7.27	8.31	-11.07	2826066	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2026-07-31	6.93	8.33	-12.48	5498684	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2026-07-24	7.75	8.36	0.23	2690145	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2026-07-17	7.43	8.36	-3.98	10551797	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2026-07-10	7.42	8.37	-3.90	2131411	Balance	-69	65
2026-07-03	7.59	8.38	-1.83	1360223	Balance	-35	31
2026-06-26	8.07	8.38	5.75	2372006	Balance	10	8
2026-06-19	8.16	8.35	6.81	4134713	Balance	35	25
2026-06-12	8.88	8.30	17.23	3106752	Balance	48	33
2026-06-05	9.37	8.23	27.28	3520971	Balance	52	28
2026-05-29	8.75	8.16	18.52	29090804	Balance	31	15
2026-05-22	8.16	8.11	12.38	14912533	Balance	-11	14
2026-05-15	7.97	8.07	10.86	18827332	Balance	2	13
2026-05-08	7.89	8.03	8.99	19552441	Balance	0	13
2026-05-01	8.63	7.98	20.21	26292998	Balance	23	20
2026-04-24	7.93	7.92	10.74	28496402	Balance	13	16
2026-04-17	8.00	7.88	10.51	26284988	Upward Expansion	23	12
2026-04-10	8.12	7.83	12.76	26922807	Upward Expansion	47	32
2026-04-03	9.08	7.77	32.60	27870929	Upward Expansion	60	58
2026-03-27	9.23	7.68	37.33	39228633	Upward Expansion	66	63
2026-03-20	9.30	7.59	41.16	46087021	Deceleration	71	49
2026-03-13	9.35	7.49	40.16	39132157	Deceleration	74	38
2026-03-06	8.48	7.41	24.95	31607403	Deceleration	42	25
2026-02-27	7.81	7.35	11.44	26190839	Upward Expansion	40	23
2026-02-20	7.77	7.30	12.78	24022288	Upward Expansion	49	38
2026-02-13	8.56	7.27	27.10	18204614	Upward Expansion	65	59
2026-02-06	8.82	7.19	35.36	28157576	Upward Expansion	69	83
2026-01-30	8.79	7.10	33.45	27273657	Upward Expansion	74	84
2026-01-23	8.95	7.00	37.21	19074209	Upward Expansion	87	89
2026-01-16	8.83	6.88	35.72	27941827	Upward Expansion	90	82
2026-01-09	7.79	6.78	23.06	22911866	Upward Expansion	64	67
2026-01-02	7.77	6.70	23.24	4940121	Upward Expansion	64	76
2025-12-26	7.82	6.64	24.05	5221602	Upward Expansion	70	80
2025-12-19	7.78	6.56	26.08	27687274	Upward Expansion	72	76
2025-12-12	7.69	6.48	24.15	24505235	Upward Expansion	72	53
2025-12-05	7.78	6.40	26.89	22899456	Upward Expansion	77	46
2025-11-28	6.89	6.31	13.23	16554517	Upward Expansion	52	32
2025-11-21	6.70	6.25	12.67	18038171	Upward Expansion	57	40
2025-11-14	6.98	6.18	14.55	17488813	Upward Expansion	60	59
2025-11-07	7.19	6.11	16.27	17294270	Upward Expansion	69	69
2025-10-31	7.16	6.03	14.38	26497418	Upward Expansion	71	57
2025-10-24	6.94	5.94	9.12	24702207	Upward Expansion	64	45
2025-10-17	6.87	5.89	8.24	23717633	Upward Expansion	62	39
2025-10-10	6.47	5.85	2.14	15432861	Upward Expansion	52	35
2025-10-03	6.60	5.82	3.46	24319503	Deceleration	53	33
2025-09-26	6.77	5.79	8.18	18503965	Deceleration	59	33
2025-09-19	6.73	5.75	7.52	57519411	Deceleration	49	28
2025-09-12	6.07	5.71	-3.82	30326866	Deceleration	39	24
2025-09-05	6.39	5.68	1.05	20484225	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-08-29	6.53	5.66	2.15	18619375	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-08-22	6.44	5.64	0.66	32058423	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-08-15	6.83	5.63	6.82	19961058	Upward Expansion	74	83
2025-08-08	6.86	5.61	8.51	16395759	Upward Expansion	80	84
2025-08-01	6.31	5.57	1.03	24071725	Upward Expansion	64	77
2025-07-25	6.85	5.57	9.09	40799348	Rotation Up	90	86
2025-07-18	6.08	5.53	-4.52	21132125	Rotation Up	46	57
2025-07-11	6.05	5.52	-3.79	20894122	Rotation Up	39	46
2025-07-04	5.86	5.53	-7.95	31954072	Rotation Up	31	33
2025-06-27	5.44	5.54	-14.48	26753555	Rotation Up	17	23
2025-06-20	5.69	5.58	-11.19	41733619	Balance	24	28
2025-06-13	5.57	5.61	-14.12	21748872	Balance	-1	18
2025-06-06	5.71	5.64	-12.33	29926615	Downward Expansion	5	20
2025-05-30	5.48	5.67	-15.64	24757152	Downward Expansion	-19	21
2025-05-23	5.36	5.71	-17.45	23770219	Downward Expansion	-32	23
2025-05-16	5.48	5.75	-16.08	36514042	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2025-05-09	5.09	5.79	-21.53	17008965	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-05-02	4.98	5.85	-23.90	40007362	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2025-04-25	4.75	5.92	-25.61	20432405	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2025-04-18	4.78	5.99	-24.38	31774616	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2025-04-11	4.72	6.02	-24.32	57160617	Downward Expansion	-76	71
2025-04-04	4.56	6.06	-27.75	44989480	Downward Expansion	-85	63
2025-03-28	5.53	6.10	-16.23	35082995	Downward Expansion	-57	36
2025-03-21	5.64	6.12	-14.37	37301182	Downward Expansion	-57	39
2025-03-14	5.46	6.16	-15.72	45407943	Downward Expansion	-64	49
2025-03-07	5.62	6.22	-15.19	34230709	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2025-02-28	5.55	6.27	-18.80	32984573	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2025-02-21	5.48	6.33	-21.32	61469766	Downward Expansion	-69	62
2025-02-14	5.41	6.39	-25.14	45851837	Downward Expansion	-77	50
2025-02-07	5.80	6.48	-19.66	36033760	Downward Expansion	-61	36
2025-01-31	5.94	6.56	-18.43	21053171	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2025-01-24	6.11	6.64	-15.38	18943905	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2025-01-17	6.11	6.68	-14.92	28678381	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2025-01-10	5.78	6.73	-19.88	21797133	Downward Expansion	-69	72
2025-01-03	6.06	6.78	-16.23	14204316	Downward Expansion	-60	65
2024-12-27	5.82	6.84	-20.01	8590030	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2024-12-20	5.80	6.90	-18.74	40283973	Downward Expansion	-73	64
2024-12-13	6.40	6.95	-13.32	22176432	Downward Expansion	-51	40
2024-12-06	6.19	6.97	-17.58	20576255	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2024-11-29	6.39	7.01	-15.52	21825264	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2024-11-22	6.71	7.05	-11.24	21469721	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2024-11-15	6.42	7.07	-14.17	23606579	Downward Expansion	-51	27
2024-11-08	6.66	7.11	-11.40	23449026	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2024-11-01	6.74	7.13	-8.53	25480671	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2024-10-25	6.54	7.12	-12.54	38889269	Downward Expansion	-31	23
2024-10-18	6.62	7.13	-12.77	25380235	Downward Expansion	-30	28
2024-10-11	7.05	7.12	-6.81	26531574	Downward Expansion	-35	23
2024-10-04	6.95	7.08	-7.44	37091718	Downward Expansion	-48	35
2024-09-27	6.88	7.08	-9.09	44820159	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2024-09-20	5.79	7.07	-23.60	43913730	Rotation Down	-73	85
2024-09-13	5.83	7.10	-22.36	49715394	Rotation Down	-50	75
2024-09-06	5.60	7.13	-24.88	46280694	Rotation Down	-62	75
2024-08-30	6.36	7.17	-15.68	69632948	Rotation Down	-41	55
2024-08-23	6.75	7.22	-9.81	43511242	Balance	-32	33
2024-08-16	7.11	7.25	-4.28	26622860	Balance	-1	18
2024-08-09	7.26	7.27	0.06	24666364	Upward Expansion	19	18
2024-08-02	7.32	7.28	-1.00	21654018	Upward Expansion	33	20
2024-07-26	7.42	7.28	0.71	26426976	Upward Expansion	57	56
2024-07-19	7.91	7.26	6.96	23025464	Upward Expansion	59	64
2024-07-12	8.19	7.23	11.20	20165921	Upward Expansion	71	68
2024-07-05	8.53	7.19	18.43	45656104	Upward Expansion	81	56
2024-06-28	7.28	7.13	2.28	20818361	Upward Expansion	50	27
2024-06-21	7.56	7.11	6.15	23328402	Upward Expansion	56	43
2024-06-14	7.32	7.09	4.08	14825503	Upward Expansion	52	34
2024-06-07	7.64	7.06	6.90	24927608	Upward Expansion	60	35
2024-05-31	7.67	7.02	9.92	18696039	Upward Expansion	65	36
2024-05-24	7.30	6.99	4.85	22162419	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-05-17	7.07	6.99	0.80	20026203	Upward Expansion	55	41
2024-05-10	7.42	6.99	6.88	17764090	Upward Expansion	59	61
2024-05-03	7.59	6.95	11.33	15369740	Balance	66	51
2024-04-26	7.31	6.90	8.42	16029424	Balance	37	34
2024-04-19	7.50	6.88	11.46	26286554	Balance	25	28
2024-04-12	7.30	6.84	5.78	28229400	Rotation Down	11	9
2024-04-05	6.65	6.81	-3.30	22519452	Rotation Down	-30	30
2024-03-29	6.75	6.78	-3.30	25721927	Rotation Down	-32	39
2024-03-22	6.18	6.76	-9.98	32989326	Rotation Down	-36	59
2024-03-15	6.08	6.74	-10.40	37648401	Deceleration	-44	53
2024-03-08	6.68	6.75	-3.89	32066511	Deceleration	-20	32
2024-03-01	6.68	6.74	-2.69	27643485	Upward Expansion	8	27
2024-02-23	6.64	6.73	-2.05	49462251	Upward Expansion	10	18
2024-02-16	6.71	6.71	-1.18	44981885	Upward Expansion	28	20
2024-02-09	7.04	6.70	3.88	30273409	Upward Expansion	63	53
2024-02-02	7.71	6.66	13.03	22142503	Upward Expansion	72	83
2024-01-26	7.66	6.59	14.69	14483600	Upward Expansion	74	82
2024-01-19	7.64	6.54	16.49	23966126	Upward Expansion	78	81
2024-01-12	7.50	6.48	13.19	23550086	Upward Expansion	76	73
2024-01-05	7.40	6.43	11.74	19394751	Upward Expansion	76	65
2023-12-29	7.01	6.37	4.13	6339929	Upward Expansion	62	46
2023-12-22	7.01	6.31	4.90	18967408	Upward Expansion	62	42
2023-12-15	6.77	6.26	1.48	24882402	Deceleration	53	35
2023-12-08	6.78	6.24	4.43	20210227	Deceleration	51	27
2023-12-01	6.84	6.22	6.68	20640116	Deceleration	44	23
2023-11-24	6.85	6.19	7.10	19986318	Upward Expansion	47	23
2023-11-17	6.35	6.17	-1.14	14221033	Upward Expansion	49	29
2023-11-10	6.48	6.18	1.82	30165883	Upward Expansion	55	54
2023-11-03	6.73	6.17	5.75	36107158	Upward Expansion	57	60
2023-10-27	7.27	6.15	16.08	37285036	Upward Expansion	75	66
2023-10-20	7.10	6.10	11.90	70725126	Balance	74	60

Price vs TrendBelow-5.2%

Trend directionFalling-2.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+9.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.7%

Price momentumNegative-5.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.02×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-40 / ±100

-69.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

31 /100

-3.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

WHC Directional State ↗ WHC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance39

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration57

Rotation Down62

Downward Expansion70

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+1.2%
Rotation Up	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	-7.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-09-11	Developing	+15.7%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-07-10	Developing	-6.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-04-17	New	-13.3%
Deceleration	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	+9.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2026-02-27	Established	+20.8%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-10-03	New	+8.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-09-05	Developing	+1.2%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-07-25	Developing	+25.9%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-06-20	New	+2.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-27	2025-06-06	Extended	-17.0%
Rotation Down	2024-08-30	2024-09-20	New	-8.9%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-08-23	New	-5.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing46

Stage 2 · Advancing22

Stage 3 · Distribution46

Stage 4 · Declining78

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 52/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.15
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -5.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -2.7%
Energy regime cohort: 75th percentile16 in cohort

Test WHC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.02×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore WHC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 7.69falling

Slow Activity AUD 7.91falling

Trend Reference AUD 8.10-5.2% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 7.00+9.8% close margin

Structural low AUD 6.88shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.6%

Annualized volatility +39.5%

From structural high -22.4%

From structural low +21.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-1.1%-18.0% to +8.7%	+41.7%	+41.7%	-0.9%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+5.6%-18.1% to +14.7%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+0.0%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+5.9%-20.7% to +38.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+0.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+1.4%-36.2% to +59.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-1.0%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

WHC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map