Weekly structural research ยท NZE ยท Real Estate

SPG Stage Analysis

Stride Property Group

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close NZD 1.05Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^NZ50
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction -68โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 68/100directional strength
Maturity 17/100lifecycle context
Confidence 85/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation
Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -11.2%NZD 1.18 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-091.051.12-14.712175869Downward Expansion-6868
2026-10-021.061.13-14.48949487Downward Expansion-6972
2026-09-251.081.13-13.741821143Downward Expansion-6064
2026-09-181.061.13-15.291969357Downward Expansion-7569
2026-09-111.061.14-14.671256212Downward Expansion-8072
2026-09-041.121.14-12.35595062Downward Expansion-5549
2026-08-281.131.15-10.89186808Balance-5342
2026-08-211.081.15-16.61228491Balance-6647
2026-08-141.121.16-12.34409531Balance-3718
2026-08-071.131.17-11.58641577Rotation Up-1119
2026-07-311.151.17-9.75245951Rotation Up1938
2026-07-241.201.18-6.11392022Balance3449
2026-07-171.201.19-6.05461085Balance1121
2026-07-101.161.19-9.851139456Balance-1213
2026-07-031.141.20-10.47432214Downward Expansion-3519
2026-06-261.141.20-9.72437488Downward Expansion-3927
2026-06-191.141.21-9.361704043Downward Expansion-4931
2026-06-121.101.22-11.87260673Downward Expansion-5736
2026-06-051.091.23-11.61332033Downward Expansion-6437
2026-05-291.141.24-7.873379601Downward Expansion-4229
2026-05-221.141.25-6.452096121Downward Expansion-4635
2026-05-151.141.26-5.843794732Downward Expansion-4738
2026-05-081.111.26-10.093107897Downward Expansion-6446
2026-05-011.111.28-8.791739681Downward Expansion-6447
2026-04-241.121.29-6.821393928Downward Expansion-6252
2026-04-171.171.29-3.391810387Downward Expansion-6255
2026-04-101.131.30-8.122187401Downward Expansion-6561
2026-04-031.061.30-12.252327067Downward Expansion-8687
2026-03-271.101.31-9.352272751Downward Expansion-8582
2026-03-201.181.31-3.224275141Downward Expansion-6678
2026-03-131.161.31-6.275458967Downward Expansion-7987
2026-03-061.181.31-6.685171886Rotation Down-7581
2026-02-271.201.31-7.002163886Rotation Down-4772
2026-02-201.201.31-4.193837345Rotation Down-5374
2026-02-131.251.310.553587259Rotation Down-4063
2026-02-061.221.31-3.182624074Rotation Down-4258
2026-01-301.241.31-1.511295492Deceleration-3737
2026-01-231.321.304.161303629Deceleration24
2026-01-161.341.303.761827170Deceleration1411
2026-01-091.361.295.921069102Deceleration1711
2026-01-021.361.286.83434651Deceleration1712
2025-12-261.341.276.00544063Deceleration1713
2025-12-191.311.265.294837504Deceleration2716
2025-12-121.371.259.212987034Deceleration3522
2025-12-051.351.247.613706172Deceleration3725
2025-11-281.381.239.683869385Deceleration4130
2025-11-211.351.228.122500811Upward Expansion4639
2025-11-141.341.217.121582282Upward Expansion5251
2025-11-071.421.2012.342611391Upward Expansion6665
2025-10-311.431.1913.662789938Upward Expansion6968
2025-10-241.411.1813.602655718Upward Expansion6882
2025-10-171.431.1716.222905873Upward Expansion7992
2025-10-101.471.1618.853740798Upward Expansion9899
2025-10-031.381.1511.286394894Upward Expansion9397
2025-09-261.311.149.136149339Upward Expansion8493
2025-09-191.291.136.163653245Upward Expansion8392
2025-09-121.291.136.116205803Upward Expansion8892
2025-09-051.241.132.123968326Upward Expansion8082
2025-08-291.221.132.631539946Upward Expansion7877
2025-08-221.201.12-0.064972456Rotation Up7371
2025-08-151.181.12-0.701180233Rotation Up3961
2025-08-081.171.13-1.312146319Rotation Up3864
2025-08-011.181.130.322433124Rotation Up4366
2025-07-251.171.13-1.481408542Rotation Up3056
2025-07-181.171.13-1.701655234Balance3144
2025-07-111.171.13-0.183735077Balance1319
2025-07-041.121.13-5.632484046Balance-129
2025-06-271.091.13-6.743024923Downward Expansion-4523
2025-06-201.071.14-8.356050242Downward Expansion-5230
2025-06-131.091.14-6.792510542Downward Expansion-3724
2025-06-061.081.14-7.871852385Downward Expansion-3823
2025-05-301.061.15-8.573081799Downward Expansion-4626
2025-05-231.091.16-7.652377459Downward Expansion-4025
2025-05-161.111.16-7.546389077Downward Expansion-4533
2025-05-091.091.17-7.843704090Downward Expansion-6047
2025-05-021.061.17-8.3214016264Downward Expansion-6558
2025-04-251.051.18-6.94600079Downward Expansion-7179
2025-04-181.051.19-7.85942094Downward Expansion-7687
2025-04-111.051.19-7.272744023Downward Expansion-8187
2025-04-041.091.20-5.781788195Downward Expansion-7281
2025-03-281.081.21-7.241775746Downward Expansion-8182
2025-03-211.101.21-4.483044220Downward Expansion-7673
2025-03-141.131.22-3.311884815Downward Expansion-7166
2025-03-071.151.23-2.10905279Downward Expansion-6356
2025-02-281.161.23-2.941640030Downward Expansion-6149
2025-02-211.161.23-4.18970133Balance-6046
2025-02-141.201.23-3.142373184Balance-4630
2025-02-071.201.22-2.63507959Balance-4724
2025-01-311.191.22-4.19726418Balance-2115
2025-01-241.201.21-3.86718908Balance-96
2025-01-171.231.21-2.57460936Balance-26
2025-01-101.201.21-3.23533746Deceleration-129
2025-01-031.201.20-4.73470304Deceleration58
2024-12-271.251.20-1.66413082Deceleration1714
2024-12-201.161.20-6.972081737Deceleration-2836
2024-12-131.191.19-3.932256118Deceleration116
2024-12-061.191.19-4.582000818Deceleration012
2024-11-291.221.18-4.481543308Deceleration1311
2024-11-221.231.18-3.671252607Deceleration1713
2024-11-151.191.18-3.992203111Deceleration1110
2024-11-081.261.181.07970759Deceleration4021
2024-11-011.231.17-0.23859613Deceleration3621
2024-10-251.251.170.202382661Deceleration3926
2024-10-181.241.17-1.714569026Deceleration3925
2024-10-111.271.170.933985907Deceleration4632
2024-10-041.251.161.202481701Upward Expansion4533
2024-09-271.241.161.021414617Upward Expansion5845
2024-09-201.261.153.142429681Upward Expansion6366
2024-09-131.271.151.081167416Upward Expansion6679
2024-09-061.291.154.343609722Upward Expansion7081
2024-08-301.311.157.212887555Rotation Up8084
2024-08-231.291.145.08917633Rotation Up5469
2024-08-161.261.141.216181245Balance4153
2024-08-091.171.14-3.084435359Balance1822
2024-08-021.171.14-4.132558417Balance213
2024-07-261.141.14-6.473569031Balance-2310
2024-07-191.111.15-8.761165665Downward Expansion-4527
2024-07-121.111.15-7.531115952Downward Expansion-4829
2024-07-051.051.15-10.38796706Downward Expansion-6133
2024-06-281.071.16-8.471605090Downward Expansion-4824
2024-06-211.111.16-4.499605205Downward Expansion-3319
2024-06-141.151.16-2.971614730Downward Expansion-3620
2024-06-071.081.16-8.25942604Downward Expansion-6042
2024-05-311.131.16-4.692455276Downward Expansion-6058
2024-05-241.071.16-9.26794035Downward Expansion-6873
2024-05-171.041.16-10.951417290Downward Expansion-8279
2024-05-101.081.16-7.611033949Downward Expansion-7066
2024-05-031.121.16-6.031579381Balance-3041
2024-04-261.121.16-4.91924305Balance-3121
2024-04-191.141.16-3.241637170Balance-46
2024-04-121.161.16-2.001166012Deceleration2411
2024-04-051.181.16-1.10850341Deceleration2311
2024-03-291.191.16-0.981387892Deceleration-513
2024-03-221.121.16-5.741131085Deceleration-3143
2024-03-151.161.16-0.233930637Deceleration-1422
2024-03-081.151.17-2.981989530Deceleration-1923
2024-03-011.131.17-3.031194388Deceleration-2422
2024-02-231.191.172.491042043Deceleration2517
2024-02-161.161.170.311351955Deceleration2019
2024-02-091.181.180.691107804Deceleration3320
2024-02-021.211.182.31689597Rotation Up1212
2024-01-261.181.180.584746861Rotation Up2623
2024-01-191.211.184.721157005Rotation Up3347
2024-01-121.241.176.091391462Rotation Up3661
2024-01-051.251.177.93136025Rotation Up3160
2023-12-291.251.177.84333466Rotation Up3255
2023-12-221.221.166.934839199Balance2438
2023-12-151.221.167.813542579Balance2320
2023-12-081.181.164.551025666Balance-2110
2023-12-011.111.15-0.421090878Balance-5025
2023-11-241.111.150.88633286Balance-5024
2023-11-171.111.150.981483607Deceleration-2418
2023-11-101.131.152.581369673Deceleration-1316
2023-11-031.141.153.341703835Deceleration-2418
2023-10-271.091.151.671089832Deceleration-3727
2023-10-201.101.150.862696872Deceleration-2524
Price vs TrendBelow-6.4%
Trend directionFalling-4.5%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-11.2%
Fair Value directionMoving away-8.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-14.7%
Relative strength directionWeakening-4.9%
Price momentumNegative-7.4%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.44ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-68 / ยฑ100

+12.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

68 /100

-4.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance17
Rotation Up11
Upward Expansion14
Deceleration39
Rotation Down71
Downward Expansion87

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 12%Deceleration 25%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 33%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-09-042026-10-09Developing-6.7%
Balance2026-08-142026-08-28New+0.4%
Rotation Up2026-07-312026-08-07New-1.3%
Balance2026-07-102026-07-24New+3.9%
Downward Expansion2026-03-132026-07-03Established-1.7%
Rotation Down2026-02-062026-03-06Developing-3.2%
Deceleration2025-11-282026-01-30Developing-9.6%
Upward Expansion2025-08-292025-11-21Established+10.3%
Rotation Up2025-07-252025-08-22Developing+2.4%
Balance2025-07-042025-07-18New+5.1%
Downward Expansion2025-02-282025-06-27Established-6.4%
Balance2025-01-172025-02-21Developing-5.3%
Deceleration2024-10-112025-01-10Established-5.7%
Upward Expansion2024-09-062024-10-04Developing-2.8%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing53
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution28
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^NZ50

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
96/100
Current Relative Strength
-14.71
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-7.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-11.7%
Real Estate regime cohort
100th percentile10 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.29ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.44ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity NZD 1.06falling
Slow Activity NZD 1.11falling
Trend Reference NZD 1.12-6.4% close margin
Current Fair Value NZD 1.18-11.2% close margin
Structural low NZD 1.04shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.0%
Annualized volatility +19.9%
From structural high -27.1%
From structural low +1.4%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^NZ50 Regime survived Read
Near term32-1.2%-13.3% to +12.0%+43.8%+56.2%-0.4%+84.4%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate11-2.8%-11.2% to +15.3%+36.4%+63.6%-5.3%+63.6%Usable descriptive sample
Extended7-5.1%-14.9% to +16.5%+28.6%+71.4%-2.0%+57.1%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle4-3.2%-25.1% to +2.0%+50.0%+50.0%-5.6%+75.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context