Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

CIB Stage Analysis

Grupo Cibest S.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 94.81Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 42−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 30/100directional strength

Maturity 69/100lifecycle context

Confidence 95/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +103.8%USD 46.52 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	94.81	81.10	16.18	1507039	Deceleration	42	30
2026-10-02	91.91	80.10	14.82	1384447	Upward Expansion	46	39
2026-09-25	93.69	79.18	17.70	1316115	Upward Expansion	60	51
2026-09-18	95.15	78.28	22.04	1296380	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-09-11	100.48	77.72	29.91	1702183	Upward Expansion	75	77
2026-09-04	97.43	76.89	26.28	2428965	Upward Expansion	70	74
2026-08-28	94.19	76.21	23.32	1460213	Upward Expansion	67	75
2026-08-21	100.58	75.75	33.47	1005495	Upward Expansion	85	91
2026-08-14	95.56	75.09	26.42	2088158	Upward Expansion	82	85
2026-08-07	88.10	74.39	17.82	1424569	Upward Expansion	68	76
2026-07-31	92.52	73.77	29.11	1787038	Upward Expansion	87	86
2026-07-24	86.01	72.76	22.65	1377828	Upward Expansion	78	75
2026-07-17	80.41	72.03	15.10	1152475	Upward Expansion	64	69
2026-07-10	82.95	71.41	17.76	936440	Upward Expansion	77	81
2026-07-03	79.15	70.74	14.83	1115114	Upward Expansion	68	75
2026-06-26	77.99	70.15	16.39	2948444	Upward Expansion	56	58
2026-06-19	80.13	69.61	17.59	1841972	Rotation Down	66	53
2026-06-12	78.90	68.93	17.73	2393995	Rotation Down	50	31
2026-06-05	69.74	68.36	5.44	2908676	Rotation Down	-18	21
2026-05-29	67.48	68.11	-0.03	2000709	Rotation Down	-29	50
2026-05-22	64.82	67.76	-2.18	1502562	Rotation Down	-29	46
2026-05-15	62.14	67.44	-5.08	1540705	Balance	-30	41
2026-05-08	64.22	67.24	-1.39	1395635	Balance	-3	10
2026-05-01	65.96	66.82	4.00	2138042	Upward Expansion	18	14
2026-04-24	71.51	66.33	14.30	1126771	Upward Expansion	41	32
2026-04-17	73.87	65.65	19.36	1531551	Deceleration	44	32
2026-04-10	74.57	64.89	26.78	1284533	Deceleration	46	27
2026-04-03	72.17	64.11	28.27	1118918	Deceleration	22	14
2026-03-27	68.83	63.41	27.45	2141474	Deceleration	10	20
2026-03-20	67.85	62.77	23.90	2706494	Deceleration	18	28
2026-03-13	64.75	62.14	17.08	3035294	Deceleration	16	24
2026-03-06	64.18	61.61	15.08	3200862	Upward Expansion	26	22
2026-02-27	66.76	61.01	18.18	4690520	Upward Expansion	49	41
2026-02-20	78.25	60.23	38.94	1145239	Upward Expansion	68	66
2026-02-13	75.73	59.07	37.59	1663814	Upward Expansion	67	80
2026-02-06	77.07	58.05	39.93	2458228	Upward Expansion	67	88
2026-01-30	80.31	56.93	47.40	2351864	Upward Expansion	86	95
2026-01-23	80.73	55.77	50.87	2177988	Upward Expansion	93	96
2026-01-16	74.50	54.56	41.00	2198849	Upward Expansion	91	89
2026-01-09	69.58	53.49	33.21	1903077	Upward Expansion	85	65
2026-01-02	62.16	52.56	22.49	877956	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-12-26	64.30	51.90	26.80	766436	Upward Expansion	74	61
2025-12-19	61.65	51.12	24.80	2373504	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-12-12	62.85	50.43	28.86	1207745	Upward Expansion	74	66
2025-12-05	61.38	49.69	26.63	1448870	Upward Expansion	68	66
2025-11-28	62.02	49.00	29.88	1234512	Upward Expansion	75	79
2025-11-21	59.62	48.27	31.03	1336341	Upward Expansion	68	84
2025-11-14	61.90	47.65	35.03	1684890	Upward Expansion	86	93
2025-11-07	62.18	46.87	37.56	1984216	Upward Expansion	95	96
2025-10-31	57.08	46.02	25.87	1160378	Upward Expansion	84	81
2025-10-24	55.15	45.41	23.72	1823852	Upward Expansion	79	69
2025-10-17	56.06	44.86	29.50	1826775	Upward Expansion	91	73
2025-10-10	51.68	44.25	22.71	1176066	Upward Expansion	70	61
2025-10-03	51.31	43.80	19.98	1140285	Upward Expansion	69	65
2025-09-26	51.08	43.32	21.82	1558007	Upward Expansion	70	74
2025-09-19	51.03	42.85	22.40	1301430	Upward Expansion	72	83
2025-09-12	51.02	42.42	24.99	2195697	Upward Expansion	75	89
2025-09-05	51.26	41.92	28.74	1552985	Upward Expansion	83	93
2025-08-29	49.63	41.37	26.18	1302951	Upward Expansion	78	90
2025-08-22	49.11	40.88	25.87	1221116	Upward Expansion	82	81
2025-08-15	48.71	40.30	26.28	1631888	Upward Expansion	83	61
2025-08-08	46.28	39.63	22.06	2480583	Upward Expansion	75	52
2025-08-01	43.39	39.04	18.15	1639702	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-07-25	43.37	38.54	15.96	1036472	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-07-18	45.19	38.01	23.33	1012461	Upward Expansion	74	76
2025-07-11	43.50	37.43	20.25	919108	Upward Expansion	66	72
2025-07-04	45.33	36.94	25.68	853680	Upward Expansion	81	76
2025-06-27	44.35	36.37	25.95	2020658	Upward Expansion	79	63
2025-06-20	42.47	35.84	25.69	1479325	Upward Expansion	69	54
2025-06-13	41.83	35.36	24.52	1905887	Upward Expansion	67	53
2025-06-06	42.35	34.88	26.50	2712091	Upward Expansion	74	56
2025-05-30	40.75	34.40	24.37	1969763	Upward Expansion	64	52
2025-05-23	40.89	33.95	27.60	1229308	Upward Expansion	66	58
2025-05-16	40.87	33.49	24.96	1682309	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-05-09	40.48	33.09	30.88	1878296	Upward Expansion	69	63
2025-05-02	40.32	32.67	30.58	1983413	Upward Expansion	70	55
2025-04-25	41.05	32.23	37.64	1680445	Upward Expansion	78	56
2025-04-18	38.34	31.78	35.47	1502638	Upward Expansion	64	48
2025-04-11	36.59	31.40	28.31	4593265	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-04-04	38.83	31.08	44.54	3134137	Upward Expansion	71	64
2025-03-28	38.79	30.68	32.19	2256299	Upward Expansion	76	67
2025-03-21	37.81	30.32	27.66	2032625	Upward Expansion	70	66
2025-03-14	38.20	29.98	30.26	1599432	Upward Expansion	77	70
2025-03-07	36.89	29.66	23.69	1797599	Upward Expansion	70	81
2025-02-28	36.96	29.32	20.68	2111915	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-02-21	37.91	28.98	23.07	2383264	Upward Expansion	91	97
2025-02-14	36.06	28.64	15.66	1415313	Upward Expansion	90	96
2025-02-07	34.88	28.38	13.88	1664773	Upward Expansion	91	96
2025-01-31	35.04	28.18	14.48	4269725	Upward Expansion	93	91
2025-01-24	31.60	27.94	2.44	2252174	Upward Expansion	84	73
2025-01-17	28.48	27.81	-6.09	1427461	Balance	49	25
2025-01-10	28.66	27.75	-2.94	917226	Balance	53	23
2025-01-03	28.34	27.68	-6.04	746537	Balance	49	22
2024-12-27	27.69	27.71	-9.04	448648	Balance	43	20
2024-12-20	27.81	27.76	-8.25	1208208	Balance	48	35
2024-12-13	28.67	27.79	-7.25	982141	Balance	32	40
2024-12-06	28.27	27.83	-9.13	1113960	Balance	22	27
2024-11-29	28.25	27.82	-8.45	947028	Balance	11	19
2024-11-22	28.33	27.80	-7.16	1281685	Balance	-5	6
2024-11-15	27.45	27.76	-8.53	1457668	Balance	-30	14
2024-11-08	27.83	27.73	-9.22	848255	Balance	-14	8
2024-11-01	27.35	27.75	-6.62	1140933	Balance	-30	15
2024-10-25	27.05	27.83	-8.97	1125820	Balance	-35	17
2024-10-18	28.63	27.86	-4.64	1667452	Balance	16	14
2024-10-11	27.95	27.83	-6.05	1355133	Balance	-28	12
2024-10-04	27.10	27.76	-7.75	1566597	Balance	-49	35
2024-09-27	27.62	27.72	-5.69	1287330	Balance	-46	36
2024-09-20	27.07	27.67	-7.08	1346401	Balance	-20	27
2024-09-13	26.77	27.65	-6.81	1772833	Balance	-26	20
2024-09-06	27.08	27.61	-1.94	1216429	Balance	-19	10
2024-08-30	27.85	27.54	-3.08	834901	Balance	15	6
2024-08-23	27.69	27.47	-3.24	1192970	Balance	12	11
2024-08-16	28.53	27.39	1.21	844539	Balance	23	16
2024-08-09	26.57	27.28	-1.83	1475896	Balance	-20	21
2024-08-02	26.76	27.25	-1.06	928949	Balance	3	4
2024-07-26	27.72	27.26	0.35	622655	Upward Expansion	31	20
2024-07-19	28.31	27.15	1.67	792234	Upward Expansion	35	21
2024-07-12	29.05	27.00	2.29	1109358	Upward Expansion	43	18
2024-07-05	27.85	26.78	-0.84	960552	Upward Expansion	22	21
2024-06-28	27.48	26.57	-0.14	2137537	Upward Expansion	26	18
2024-06-21	26.68	26.39	-2.91	919901	Upward Expansion	22	13
2024-06-14	26.58	26.21	-2.52	1496080	Upward Expansion	41	26
2024-06-07	29.35	26.03	9.56	1532641	Upward Expansion	66	58
2024-05-31	29.03	25.76	9.97	1005526	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-05-24	28.90	25.49	9.48	1144537	Upward Expansion	64	49
2024-05-17	29.75	25.19	13.21	1114006	Deceleration	76	48
2024-05-10	28.02	24.85	9.01	1218792	Deceleration	48	29
2024-05-03	27.78	24.56	10.52	1060282	Upward Expansion	48	33
2024-04-26	26.87	24.29	7.95	1738932	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-04-19	26.73	24.08	10.64	1315896	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-04-12	28.25	23.87	13.52	2413953	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-04-05	29.79	23.62	18.11	1588328	Upward Expansion	90	92
2024-03-29	28.02	23.26	10.58	791149	Upward Expansion	79	67
2024-03-22	27.73	23.01	10.21	1311596	Upward Expansion	80	59
2024-03-15	25.77	22.76	5.19	1744904	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-03-08	26.07	22.58	6.73	893530	Upward Expansion	61	51
2024-03-01	26.13	22.42	6.89	1279777	Deceleration	63	52
2024-02-23	26.51	22.28	9.67	2630715	Deceleration	71	56
2024-02-16	25.33	22.15	6.79	950607	Upward Expansion	58	51
2024-02-09	25.19	22.05	6.01	663234	Upward Expansion	61	57
2024-02-02	25.52	21.93	8.92	836170	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-01-26	25.35	21.75	9.78	1107327	Upward Expansion	66	83
2024-01-19	25.45	21.57	11.25	1312844	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-01-12	25.39	21.36	12.28	2162132	Upward Expansion	72	89
2024-01-05	27.16	21.18	22.35	1300666	Upward Expansion	97	98
2023-12-29	24.54	20.97	9.09	878336	Upward Expansion	89	89
2023-12-22	23.63	20.78	5.33	1419292	Upward Expansion	85	80
2023-12-15	22.40	20.57	0.70	2003595	Upward Expansion	72	68
2023-12-08	21.80	20.40	0.37	719705	Upward Expansion	64	63
2023-12-01	21.92	20.27	1.15	1027121	Upward Expansion	66	61
2023-11-24	21.42	20.15	-0.26	849584	Balance	58	42
2023-11-17	21.24	20.03	-0.05	957548	Balance	45	30
2023-11-10	21.03	19.99	1.34	873482	Balance	39	21
2023-11-03	21.03	19.99	2.79	1250770	Rotation Down	34	16
2023-10-27	19.78	19.92	2.43	927868	Rotation Down	-12	25
2023-10-20	19.70	19.87	-0.42	1061855	Deceleration	-10	22

Price vs TrendAbove+16.9%

Trend directionRising+9.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+103.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+16.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.6%

Price momentumPositive+27.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.48×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

42 / ±100

-32.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

30 /100

-47.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CIB Directional State ↗ CIB Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up32

Upward Expansion64

Deceleration88

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Upward Expansion 69%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 5%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-10-02	Established	+17.8%
Rotation Down	2026-05-22	2026-06-19	Developing	+23.6%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-05-15	New	-3.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-05-01	New	-7.8%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-04-17	Developing	+14.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-24	2026-03-06	Extended	+103.1%
Balance	2024-08-02	2025-01-17	Established	+6.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-24	2024-07-26	Developing	-4.1%
Deceleration	2024-05-10	2024-05-17	New	+6.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-08	2024-05-03	Developing	+6.6%
Deceleration	2024-02-23	2024-03-01	New	-1.4%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-01	2024-02-16	Developing	+15.5%
Balance	2023-11-10	2023-11-24	New	+1.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing7

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution63

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 91/100
Current Relative Strength: 16.18
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +27.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +12.3%
Financial Services regime cohort: 83th percentile99 in cohort

Test CIB trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.88×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.48×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CIB Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 94.24falling

Slow Activity USD 87.06rising

Trend Reference USD 81.10+16.9% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 46.52+103.8% close margin

Structural low USD 61.53shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +7.6%

Annualized volatility +35.7%

From structural high -8.8%

From structural low +81.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	+2.8%-24.3% to +15.2%	+58.3%	+58.3%	+1.3%	+41.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+8.4%-10.2% to +21.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+5.1%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+20.3%-31.1% to +55.2%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+7.2%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+43.0%-5.9% to +46.7%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+16.6%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CIB Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map