Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

AVNW Stage Analysis

Aviat Networks Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 20.77Tenure EstablishedBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and stable.

Direction 5−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 3/100directional strength

Maturity 27/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedstable separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -13.4%USD 23.99 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	20.77	20.52	-16.41	355309	Balance	5	3
2026-10-02	20.68	20.65	-16.98	611390	Balance	-26	10
2026-09-25	20.09	20.79	-19.28	545925	Balance	-25	14
2026-09-18	20.46	20.95	-15.61	729435	Balance	-29	16
2026-09-11	20.73	21.09	-14.27	899576	Balance	-26	15
2026-09-04	19.78	21.24	-19.21	1060394	Balance	-32	14
2026-08-28	20.00	21.45	-18.54	1264978	Balance	-25	13
2026-08-21	20.83	21.51	-15.40	827394	Balance	-8	16
2026-08-14	22.15	21.53	-12.85	469863	Balance	5	15
2026-08-07	21.12	21.53	-16.31	632263	Balance	-6	7
2026-07-31	20.48	21.54	-15.13	882118	Balance	-12	10
2026-07-24	20.25	21.58	-15.99	598945	Balance	-11	13
2026-07-17	20.78	21.62	-15.68	455992	Balance	-10	16
2026-07-10	21.65	21.62	-16.38	531934	Downward Expansion	-15	18
2026-07-03	21.17	21.61	-17.36	665331	Downward Expansion	-25	22
2026-06-26	20.47	21.61	-20.05	879772	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2026-06-19	20.04	21.66	-25.84	875544	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2026-06-12	19.37	21.70	-27.01	582040	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-06-05	18.04	21.79	-31.00	936047	Downward Expansion	-61	70
2026-05-29	17.77	21.95	-35.63	582762	Downward Expansion	-62	76
2026-05-22	17.59	22.19	-35.02	1001047	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2026-05-15	16.00	22.43	-40.65	1364990	Downward Expansion	-78	74
2026-05-08	15.81	22.68	-42.05	2447875	Downward Expansion	-70	52
2026-05-01	23.12	22.85	-11.49	725713	Balance	-6	6
2026-04-24	23.36	22.84	-9.35	938791	Balance	-8	16
2026-04-17	22.80	22.81	-9.68	1067440	Balance	-12	21
2026-04-10	21.99	22.85	-7.68	1071011	Balance	-4	16
2026-04-03	20.20	22.91	-11.47	1415461	Upward Expansion	-15	16
2026-03-27	22.93	22.98	4.19	592456	Upward Expansion	35	21
2026-03-20	25.07	22.98	10.25	555318	Upward Expansion	59	40
2026-03-13	24.62	22.92	6.25	385789	Upward Expansion	58	46
2026-03-06	24.95	22.82	6.67	530102	Upward Expansion	61	66
2026-02-27	25.04	22.71	5.74	605400	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-02-20	24.70	22.57	4.04	472262	Rotation Up	63	69
2026-02-13	24.96	22.52	6.20	627403	Rotation Up	40	53
2026-02-06	26.36	22.48	10.74	1277142	Rotation Up	39	35
2026-01-30	21.81	22.40	-10.27	512846	Downward Expansion	-31	14
2026-01-23	21.16	22.50	-13.13	347195	Downward Expansion	-39	18
2026-01-16	22.39	22.59	-8.00	512479	Downward Expansion	-32	15
2026-01-09	21.44	22.60	-12.69	460470	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2026-01-02	21.60	22.62	-10.19	384445	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2025-12-26	21.42	22.63	-12.50	221638	Downward Expansion	-55	47
2025-12-19	20.87	22.63	-13.69	639445	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2025-12-12	21.27	22.61	-11.49	496924	Balance	-58	53
2025-12-05	21.02	22.59	-14.18	581427	Balance	-32	32
2025-11-28	22.11	22.58	-8.80	387209	Balance	-20	20
2025-11-21	21.10	22.46	-8.46	773073	Balance	1	5
2025-11-14	22.11	22.35	-6.80	501640	Balance	34	21
2025-11-07	22.81	22.18	-3.59	645645	Balance	46	37
2025-10-31	24.96	21.99	2.73	510460	Balance	60	41
2025-10-24	25.06	21.72	5.03	356361	Balance	62	28
2025-10-17	23.28	21.52	-0.37	459412	Balance	26	13
2025-10-10	21.04	21.40	-8.13	376453	Balance	4	5
2025-10-03	22.79	21.33	-3.26	423779	Upward Expansion	47	27
2025-09-26	22.54	21.25	-3.26	419749	Upward Expansion	49	29
2025-09-19	23.76	21.19	1.08	609042	Upward Expansion	57	37
2025-09-12	23.91	21.15	3.54	852308	Deceleration	60	36
2025-09-05	22.35	21.09	-1.65	380313	Deceleration	43	23
2025-08-29	22.96	21.14	1.16	595163	Deceleration	39	20
2025-08-22	23.19	21.01	1.03	532460	Deceleration	37	26
2025-08-15	21.55	20.88	-7.76	472937	Deceleration	28	25
2025-08-08	21.81	20.80	-7.12	383136	Deceleration	35	24
2025-08-01	20.86	20.69	-8.85	406460	Upward Expansion	36	26
2025-07-25	23.19	20.60	-2.10	413957	Upward Expansion	63	59
2025-07-18	23.64	20.42	-0.40	523606	Upward Expansion	66	77
2025-07-11	23.95	20.20	1.31	476490	Upward Expansion	69	82
2025-07-04	24.82	20.00	3.89	389450	Upward Expansion	84	85
2025-06-27	23.94	19.76	1.20	532879	Upward Expansion	80	78
2025-06-20	22.60	19.49	-1.22	390951	Upward Expansion	72	71
2025-06-13	22.02	19.25	-4.51	478344	Upward Expansion	68	68
2025-06-06	22.06	18.97	-5.70	474952	Upward Expansion	70	67
2025-05-30	21.45	18.72	-7.42	318324	Balance	66	54
2025-05-23	20.26	18.68	-11.91	429030	Balance	42	33
2025-05-16	20.68	18.69	-13.19	500427	Balance	44	29
2025-05-09	20.67	18.77	-8.42	778776	Rotation Down	18	10
2025-05-02	18.51	18.84	-19.10	381824	Rotation Down	-17	24
2025-04-25	17.64	18.87	-21.26	354127	Rotation Down	-20	40
2025-04-18	17.22	19.03	-19.60	245891	Rotation Down	-33	43
2025-04-11	17.13	19.21	-23.07	756781	Balance	-34	36
2025-04-04	16.87	19.35	-19.85	606544	Balance	-28	27
2025-03-28	18.88	19.63	-20.40	355215	Balance	-9	16
2025-03-21	19.65	19.91	-20.49	473162	Balance	3	11
2025-03-14	19.06	20.18	-23.89	478756	Rotation Up	5	7
2025-03-07	20.20	20.47	-22.50	658840	Rotation Up	28	26
2025-02-28	20.93	20.71	-23.41	751751	Rotation Up	23	50
2025-02-21	22.57	20.96	-21.28	1189057	Rotation Up	30	56
2025-02-14	22.16	21.21	-25.40	864652	Balance	29	46
2025-02-07	23.66	21.44	-19.17	2605485	Balance	22	30
2025-01-31	19.05	21.61	-35.51	654151	Balance	-15	16
2025-01-24	19.47	21.88	-35.68	512123	Downward Expansion	-18	18
2025-01-17	19.10	22.19	-36.71	572769	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2025-01-10	18.34	22.51	-38.22	692111	Downward Expansion	-38	27
2025-01-03	18.40	22.88	-40.23	755304	Downward Expansion	-39	28
2024-12-27	17.82	23.29	-43.33	685520	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2024-12-20	16.85	23.73	-46.71	1553938	Downward Expansion	-47	41
2024-12-13	18.12	24.18	-44.80	1221280	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2024-12-06	17.38	24.61	-47.42	1014532	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2024-11-29	15.83	25.08	-51.28	527012	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2024-11-22	15.42	25.55	-52.88	1140365	Downward Expansion	-70	86
2024-11-15	13.79	26.16	-57.68	1720178	Downward Expansion	-85	90
2024-11-08	14.39	26.80	-57.96	2827993	Downward Expansion	-89	67
2024-11-01	20.25	27.47	-38.49	643060	Downward Expansion	-69	53
2024-10-25	20.66	27.97	-38.98	795785	Downward Expansion	-70	55
2024-10-18	23.00	28.56	-32.57	504039	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2024-10-11	22.77	29.03	-33.61	1296500	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2024-10-04	19.36	29.42	-43.29	911039	Downward Expansion	-87	92
2024-09-27	22.57	29.96	-34.54	482699	Downward Expansion	-73	84
2024-09-20	22.58	30.38	-34.57	1008630	Downward Expansion	-79	83
2024-09-13	21.34	30.77	-37.97	1424747	Downward Expansion	-91	80
2024-09-06	25.25	31.22	-23.14	414045	Downward Expansion	-81	63
2024-08-30	27.45	31.47	-21.96	339770	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2024-08-23	27.72	31.52	-22.59	648520	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2024-08-16	27.56	31.61	-22.90	430041	Downward Expansion	-66	48
2024-08-09	27.47	31.70	-19.40	310327	Downward Expansion	-71	47
2024-08-02	28.44	31.87	-16.70	231512	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2024-07-26	30.00	31.94	-15.22	289451	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-07-19	29.02	32.03	-20.41	302516	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2024-07-12	28.78	32.14	-24.62	333805	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2024-07-05	27.35	32.27	-28.99	210412	Downward Expansion	-79	81
2024-06-28	28.69	32.44	-23.51	437360	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2024-06-21	28.74	32.52	-24.01	219105	Rotation Down	-73	64
2024-06-14	29.39	32.58	-22.63	279007	Rotation Down	-43	47
2024-06-07	30.77	32.59	-16.72	239077	Rotation Down	-33	41
2024-05-31	30.91	32.55	-14.55	288542	Rotation Down	-22	44
2024-05-24	30.30	32.53	-17.97	405554	Rotation Down	-30	49
2024-05-17	31.19	32.37	-14.88	336373	Deceleration	-23	36
2024-05-10	31.31	32.21	-13.17	440133	Deceleration	-22	29
2024-05-03	29.91	32.06	-16.23	1330766	Deceleration	1	16
2024-04-26	33.96	32.03	-4.32	314046	Deceleration	30	21
2024-04-19	32.86	31.94	-4.29	413253	Upward Expansion	34	21
2024-04-12	34.42	31.92	-5.68	356994	Upward Expansion	56	40
2024-04-05	35.22	31.86	-4.61	314865	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-03-29	38.34	31.79	2.38	380270	Upward Expansion	76	71
2024-03-22	37.24	31.72	-1.57	439911	Upward Expansion	75	69
2024-03-15	34.60	31.58	-6.41	497604	Upward Expansion	61	65
2024-03-08	35.57	31.37	-5.61	397100	Upward Expansion	67	72
2024-03-01	34.89	31.19	-9.61	478112	Upward Expansion	64	67
2024-02-23	34.32	31.03	-10.21	419463	Balance	60	55
2024-02-16	35.02	30.90	-7.89	787971	Balance	66	37
2024-02-09	32.68	30.78	-16.01	1818831	Balance	37	20
2024-02-02	28.81	30.72	-25.30	538858	Balance	-32	24
2024-01-26	30.59	30.85	-20.70	477108	Balance	-1	8
2024-01-19	30.29	30.94	-21.54	312301	Rotation Up	-7	6
2024-01-12	32.36	30.96	-14.50	316526	Rotation Up	29	22
2024-01-05	30.71	30.98	-16.86	269684	Rotation Up	17	22
2023-12-29	32.66	31.01	-14.96	211114	Rotation Up	26	42
2023-12-22	32.39	30.97	-16.04	414219	Rotation Up	23	35
2023-12-15	32.71	30.93	-15.06	501414	Rotation Up	26	31
2023-12-08	32.22	30.87	-14.09	338901	Downward Expansion	14	21
2023-12-01	31.34	30.79	-16.43	321232	Downward Expansion	-15	18
2023-11-24	30.55	30.68	-18.98	366727	Downward Expansion	-28	22
2023-11-17	29.61	30.76	-21.30	470539	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2023-11-10	29.40	30.85	-20.85	383349	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2023-11-03	30.51	31.01	-15.90	782232	Downward Expansion	-62	68
2023-10-27	25.46	31.12	-25.64	305877	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2023-10-20	26.29	31.42	-25.84	638373	Downward Expansion	-79	78

Price vs TrendAbove+1.2%

Trend directionFalling-4.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-13.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-16.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-0.0%

Price momentumNegative-5.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.70×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

5 / ±100

+30.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

3 /100

-11.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AVNW Directional State ↗ AVNW Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance65

Rotation Up34

Upward Expansion29

Deceleration33

Rotation Down31

Downward Expansion26

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 27%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 36%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-10-09	Established	-0.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-07-10	Developing	+36.9%
Balance	2026-04-10	2026-05-01	New	+5.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-04-03	Developing	-19.3%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-02-20	New	-6.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-01-30	Developing	+4.5%
Balance	2025-10-10	2025-12-12	Developing	+1.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-10-03	New	-4.1%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-09-12	Developing	+9.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-08-01	Developing	-5.4%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-05-30	New	+3.7%
Rotation Down	2025-04-18	2025-05-09	New	+20.1%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-04-11	New	-12.8%
Rotation Up	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-15.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing52

Stage 2 · Advancing19

Stage 3 · Distribution43

Stage 4 · Declining81

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 18/100
Current Relative Strength: -16.41
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -5.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -28.5%
Technology regime cohort: 44th percentile95 in cohort

Test AVNW trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.49×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.70×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AVNW Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 20.57rising

Slow Activity USD 20.36falling

Trend Reference USD 20.52+1.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 23.99-13.4% close margin

Structural low USD 13.92shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.8%

Annualized volatility +59.8%

From structural high -23.1%

From structural low +49.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	26	+1.5%-28.1% to +26.5%	+53.8%	+53.8%	+0.8%	+46.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	+3.1%-23.4% to +33.8%	+58.3%	+58.3%	-4.1%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	-1.8%-17.1% to +9.5%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-9.3%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-5.5%-36.4% to +14.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-19.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AVNW Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map