Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

CSCO Stage Analysis

Cisco Systems Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 118.39Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 42−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 44/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +76.2%USD 67.19 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	118.39	107.03	11.74	81249864	Deceleration	42	19
2026-10-02	112.20	105.68	6.76	78368435	Deceleration	8	10
2026-09-25	106.30	104.55	2.38	124411981	Deceleration	-3	13
2026-09-18	109.10	103.64	9.02	101176124	Deceleration	6	13
2026-09-11	111.71	102.63	13.26	51232119	Deceleration	13	15
2026-09-04	108.79	101.45	10.36	72986413	Deceleration	14	17
2026-08-28	109.52	100.64	12.07	61361523	Deceleration	24	16
2026-08-21	111.04	99.58	14.64	91919588	Deceleration	39	26
2026-08-14	111.68	98.36	13.04	164708296	Deceleration	43	31
2026-08-07	121.43	97.13	24.98	92833240	Deceleration	65	41
2026-07-31	115.99	95.53	26.26	111099404	Deceleration	45	36
2026-07-24	114.17	94.18	25.85	80886505	Deceleration	44	35
2026-07-17	111.94	92.96	22.26	117015860	Upward Expansion	46	39
2026-07-10	121.31	91.81	27.76	105357023	Upward Expansion	61	53
2026-07-03	112.28	90.33	21.21	111183558	Upward Expansion	52	53
2026-06-26	113.35	89.16	24.05	143150464	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-06-19	119.10	87.92	25.18	110548708	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-06-12	120.66	86.46	30.93	109622095	Upward Expansion	70	87
2026-06-05	121.19	85.01	35.53	136899602	Upward Expansion	78	92
2026-05-29	120.42	83.31	29.58	111130335	Upward Expansion	88	96
2026-05-22	120.41	81.71	34.22	128266186	Upward Expansion	97	99
2026-05-15	118.21	80.03	34.32	215356810	Upward Expansion	99	99
2026-05-08	96.57	78.40	10.18	94882289	Upward Expansion	88	92
2026-05-01	91.85	77.42	10.83	83910182	Upward Expansion	83	83
2026-04-24	89.01	76.60	9.35	92461786	Upward Expansion	79	75
2026-04-17	86.25	75.84	8.58	87851653	Deceleration	74	60
2026-04-10	82.22	75.20	10.07	84621454	Deceleration	61	34
2026-04-03	79.02	74.64	10.69	83355928	Deceleration	38	21
2026-03-27	79.50	74.20	15.94	113953299	Deceleration	40	21
2026-03-20	77.24	73.81	9.27	157653481	Deceleration	34	20
2026-03-13	77.92	73.44	8.24	111469285	Deceleration	38	25
2026-03-06	78.22	73.02	7.71	103915577	Upward Expansion	50	31
2026-02-27	79.04	72.76	7.55	113798830	Upward Expansion	55	51
2026-02-20	78.78	72.33	7.05	93346363	Upward Expansion	56	53
2026-02-13	76.44	71.95	5.24	200462999	Upward Expansion	55	42
2026-02-06	84.37	71.64	14.85	151050409	Deceleration	83	59
2026-01-30	77.91	71.05	4.34	105410372	Deceleration	52	27
2026-01-23	74.20	70.73	-0.57	68004725	Deceleration	36	23
2026-01-16	74.79	70.49	0.53	100553238	Upward Expansion	42	27
2026-01-09	73.49	70.16	-1.94	89989825	Upward Expansion	48	36
2026-01-02	75.64	69.80	3.22	61214282	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-12-26	77.33	69.43	3.92	53991352	Upward Expansion	67	58
2025-12-19	77.59	68.91	5.78	165608857	Upward Expansion	72	68
2025-12-12	76.97	68.38	5.81	89741525	Upward Expansion	69	75
2025-12-05	77.14	67.89	4.35	71389087	Upward Expansion	75	86
2025-11-28	76.12	67.26	4.22	68803800	Upward Expansion	74	84
2025-11-21	75.29	66.66	8.37	131315922	Upward Expansion	75	83
2025-11-14	77.17	66.00	7.92	197663867	Upward Expansion	90	87
2025-11-07	70.32	65.24	-1.58	93425016	Upward Expansion	62	68
2025-10-31	72.33	64.77	-1.77	96013916	Upward Expansion	78	72
2025-10-24	69.88	64.13	-3.19	70603801	Upward Expansion	67	52
2025-10-17	69.39	63.77	-1.71	76028105	Deceleration	65	38
2025-10-10	67.22	63.41	-2.39	114863121	Deceleration	42	26
2025-10-03	67.20	63.13	-4.52	77209348	Deceleration	42	22
2025-09-26	66.11	62.96	-4.83	97498878	Deceleration	34	17
2025-09-19	67.08	62.83	-3.76	120976039	Deceleration	41	24
2025-09-12	65.43	62.66	-3.97	76466842	Deceleration	37	22
2025-09-05	65.79	62.58	-1.49	68378758	Upward Expansion	40	24
2025-08-29	67.95	62.40	2.92	84118005	Upward Expansion	54	41
2025-08-22	66.21	62.10	0.29	83883635	Upward Expansion	46	37
2025-08-15	65.10	61.90	-2.06	169143363	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-08-08	70.60	61.68	6.95	109836424	Upward Expansion	84	64
2025-08-01	66.00	61.23	4.16	91517561	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-07-25	67.55	60.93	4.59	67367662	Upward Expansion	69	83
2025-07-18	66.92	60.60	4.91	82097189	Upward Expansion	66	83
2025-07-11	66.82	60.25	6.51	98639142	Upward Expansion	68	84
2025-07-04	68.22	59.91	8.87	89129391	Upward Expansion	81	84
2025-06-27	67.12	59.56	9.30	125967033	Upward Expansion	79	77
2025-06-20	64.84	59.22	10.50	108888793	Upward Expansion	72	71
2025-06-13	62.66	58.94	7.29	81142977	Upward Expansion	62	67
2025-06-06	64.58	58.70	10.51	83746123	Upward Expansion	75	71
2025-05-30	61.63	58.41	8.17	71057497	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-05-23	61.70	58.14	10.78	78126807	Balance	51	38
2025-05-16	62.20	57.88	9.52	167808269	Balance	32	23
2025-05-09	58.43	57.63	10.31	76283335	Rotation Down	1	8
2025-05-02	58.00	57.42	9.61	91702195	Rotation Down	-17	21
2025-04-25	55.44	57.19	8.67	105048136	Rotation Down	-21	37
2025-04-18	54.51	57.03	13.93	70662999	Deceleration	-28	34
2025-04-11	56.05	56.87	14.72	192575484	Deceleration	-18	28
2025-04-04	53.32	56.59	17.70	148258625	Deceleration	-16	26
2025-03-28	59.08	56.36	17.99	130493688	Deceleration	34	21
2025-03-21	58.53	56.00	14.58	129957345	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-03-14	58.73	55.67	15.58	104726409	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-03-07	62.07	55.29	19.48	105640397	Upward Expansion	66	60
2025-02-28	62.23	54.67	16.35	104247383	Upward Expansion	71	68
2025-02-21	62.11	54.08	12.56	69953914	Upward Expansion	75	66
2025-02-14	62.97	53.54	11.82	130585968	Upward Expansion	86	74
2025-02-07	60.45	52.95	10.68	91509613	Upward Expansion	77	67
2025-01-31	58.83	52.45	7.98	110763676	Upward Expansion	65	59
2025-01-24	60.41	51.98	9.39	69505388	Upward Expansion	85	69
2025-01-17	58.47	51.46	7.42	97563376	Upward Expansion	74	61
2025-01-10	57.02	51.01	7.71	67081873	Upward Expansion	61	55
2025-01-03	57.14	50.55	5.48	62124896	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-12-27	57.47	50.10	5.12	50141916	Upward Expansion	71	65
2024-12-20	56.42	49.65	4.02	167483357	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-12-13	56.52	49.24	1.75	89674970	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-12-06	57.74	48.88	4.58	78340609	Upward Expansion	80	87
2024-11-29	57.09	48.48	6.66	90939562	Upward Expansion	80	85
2024-11-22	56.45	48.06	6.20	87706368	Upward Expansion	80	84
2024-11-15	55.40	47.70	6.06	132708300	Upward Expansion	75	86
2024-11-08	55.98	47.38	3.42	79357452	Upward Expansion	84	90
2024-11-01	53.51	47.04	3.86	86265632	Upward Expansion	69	87
2024-10-25	53.74	46.80	2.17	77142936	Upward Expansion	76	89
2024-10-18	54.73	46.57	3.62	99940437	Upward Expansion	89	94
2024-10-11	52.31	46.31	-1.27	55974974	Upward Expansion	81	87
2024-10-04	50.86	46.10	-3.37	68258477	Upward Expansion	76	79
2024-09-27	50.73	45.96	-4.06	99487182	Upward Expansion	79	71
2024-09-20	49.73	45.78	-5.59	102966825	Upward Expansion	77	67
2024-09-13	47.65	45.66	-8.76	68944856	Upward Expansion	58	62
2024-09-06	46.41	45.59	-6.54	67439678	Rotation Up	55	62
2024-08-30	48.36	45.61	-8.86	68771884	Rotation Up	41	55
2024-08-23	48.55	45.58	-9.85	91928635	Balance	34	39
2024-08-16	47.33	45.59	-11.84	145343341	Balance	5	7
2024-08-09	43.51	45.62	-15.15	108081489	Balance	-56	24
2024-08-02	44.65	45.75	-13.20	94432933	Balance	-20	13
2024-07-26	45.82	45.84	-14.14	98325696	Balance	-16	14
2024-07-19	45.28	45.88	-17.71	96353566	Balance	-28	18
2024-07-12	45.34	45.93	-21.33	96089599	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2024-07-05	44.64	45.97	-23.17	60381134	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2024-06-28	45.08	45.99	-20.18	91374058	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2024-06-21	44.87	46.00	-21.06	125198427	Downward Expansion	-58	51
2024-06-14	43.34	46.01	-24.02	79081640	Downward Expansion	-69	72
2024-06-07	43.49	46.05	-21.60	106562375	Downward Expansion	-70	64
2024-05-31	44.12	46.24	-18.77	93347057	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2024-05-24	44.04	46.42	-20.61	97932162	Downward Expansion	-70	55
2024-05-17	45.70	46.55	-16.97	139720578	Downward Expansion	-53	44
2024-05-10	45.60	46.68	-15.79	68147514	Downward Expansion	-56	50
2024-05-03	44.71	46.83	-16.58	81778265	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2024-04-26	45.41	47.00	-14.79	84675686	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2024-04-19	45.84	47.15	-11.00	82997156	Downward Expansion	-52	26
2024-04-12	46.01	47.28	-15.85	92189859	Downward Expansion	-39	18
2024-04-05	46.06	47.48	-16.71	84156798	Downward Expansion	-40	19
2024-03-29	46.97	47.69	-16.32	65404780	Downward Expansion	-34	15
2024-03-22	46.84	47.91	-17.54	96687619	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2024-03-15	46.04	48.07	-17.06	125005519	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2024-03-08	46.58	48.24	-17.63	104760281	Downward Expansion	-59	61
2024-03-01	45.55	48.35	-21.22	81639782	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2024-02-23	45.98	48.46	-19.45	77563840	Downward Expansion	-53	55
2024-02-16	45.58	48.54	-19.55	141535343	Balance	-57	30
2024-02-09	47.17	48.64	-18.57	99337988	Balance	-16	15
2024-02-02	47.22	48.63	-17.40	98295108	Balance	-14	17
2024-01-26	49.07	48.63	-13.57	86354496	Balance	3	15
2024-01-19	48.25	48.58	-14.91	75889360	Downward Expansion	-25	21
2024-01-12	47.37	48.52	-14.54	88977648	Downward Expansion	-35	23
2024-01-05	47.14	48.53	-12.77	72189709	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2023-12-29	47.18	48.49	-15.97	41121093	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2023-12-22	46.78	48.45	-16.97	86819164	Rotation Down	-61	49
2023-12-15	46.57	48.42	-17.09	150299193	Rotation Down	-37	62
2023-12-08	45.18	48.37	-17.38	94844717	Rotation Down	-42	72
2023-12-01	45.26	48.30	-17.22	106622672	Rotation Down	-46	70
2023-11-24	45.16	48.21	-17.76	74457023	Rotation Down	-41	62
2023-11-17	44.59	48.15	-18.48	176845930	Deceleration	-46	46
2023-11-10	49.11	48.11	-8.87	82629513	Deceleration	7	16
2023-11-03	49.50	48.02	-5.63	76237203	Deceleration	12	15
2023-10-27	48.15	47.94	-2.51	77897382	Deceleration	-1	14
2023-10-20	49.43	47.93	-2.65	82144214	Deceleration	29	23

Price vs TrendAbove+10.6%

Trend directionRising+12.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+76.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+11.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-16.0%

Price momentumPositive+44.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.68×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

42 / ±100

+28.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

19 /100

+3.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CSCO Directional State ↗ CSCO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance46

Rotation Up39

Upward Expansion52

Deceleration68

Rotation Down24

Downward Expansion23

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 47%Deceleration 23%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 16%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-07-24	2026-10-09	Developing	+3.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-07-17	Established	+25.8%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-04-17	Developing	+10.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-03-06	New	+2.3%
Deceleration	2026-01-23	2026-02-06	New	+13.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-24	2026-01-16	Established	+7.0%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-10-17	Developing	+6.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-09-05	Established	+6.8%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-05-23	New	-0.8%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+5.4%
Deceleration	2025-03-28	2025-04-18	New	-7.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-13	2025-03-21	Extended	+22.8%
Rotation Up	2024-08-30	2024-09-06	New	-4.0%
Balance	2024-07-19	2024-08-23	Developing	+7.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing0

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution74

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 74/100
Current Relative Strength: 11.74
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +44.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +21.0%
Technology regime cohort: 45th percentile77 in cohort

Test CSCO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.79×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.68×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CSCO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 112.64rising

Slow Activity USD 111.98rising

Trend Reference USD 107.03+10.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 67.19+76.2% close margin

Structural low USD 80.88shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.9%

Annualized volatility +39.0%

From structural high -8.9%

From structural low +79.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	-0.8%-8.6% to +17.5%	+46.7%	+46.7%	-1.6%	+53.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+12.6%-24.4% to +20.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+1.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+11.9%-7.7% to +33.7%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+1.4%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+1.9%-24.6% to +34.6%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+0.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CSCO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map