Weekly structural research · NYSEARCA · Market

MDY Stage Analysis

STATE STREET SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 669.87Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -23−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 45/100directional strength

Maturity 2/100lifecycle context

Confidence 73/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +16.9%USD 573.13 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	669.87	672.80	-5.61	4359151	Rotation Down	-23	45
2026-10-02	669.66	670.74	-4.59	3632389	Deceleration	-23	39
2026-09-25	665.87	669.08	-5.40	3559070	Deceleration	-11	28
2026-09-18	666.68	668.54	-4.16	3763600	Deceleration	-8	21
2026-09-11	677.05	668.16	-2.82	1967308	Upward Expansion	23	18
2026-09-04	689.86	667.17	-1.79	2554924	Upward Expansion	42	30
2026-08-28	688.89	665.91	-1.89	2146418	Upward Expansion	56	44
2026-08-21	697.92	663.76	-0.18	2789682	Upward Expansion	58	52
2026-08-14	715.19	661.60	0.87	1935308	Upward Expansion	74	60
2026-08-07	709.16	658.98	0.22	3807294	Upward Expansion	72	48
2026-07-31	686.32	656.28	0.44	2993717	Upward Expansion	45	34
2026-07-24	690.71	653.68	2.20	3140013	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-07-17	688.75	651.07	1.34	2823457	Upward Expansion	61	48
2026-07-10	689.82	648.39	-0.06	2624628	Upward Expansion	63	57
2026-07-03	693.70	645.66	1.84	3923639	Upward Expansion	68	69
2026-06-26	695.29	642.61	4.29	4226002	Upward Expansion	71	69
2026-06-19	691.00	639.45	1.25	3942515	Upward Expansion	70	68
2026-06-12	692.04	635.66	2.34	5141183	Upward Expansion	76	62
2026-06-05	672.93	631.97	0.11	3240104	Upward Expansion	62	47
2026-05-29	678.94	629.13	-1.56	2479486	Upward Expansion	70	53
2026-05-22	669.00	626.09	-1.66	2823556	Upward Expansion	64	56
2026-05-15	657.67	623.70	-2.56	2858640	Upward Expansion	62	68
2026-05-08	673.58	621.24	-0.11	2482813	Upward Expansion	72	77
2026-05-01	662.72	617.89	0.51	2653350	Upward Expansion	64	69
2026-04-24	662.84	615.65	1.42	3337206	Deceleration	66	58
2026-04-17	663.79	613.27	2.09	2941801	Deceleration	56	34
2026-04-10	641.52	610.96	3.09	4353931	Deceleration	26	17
2026-04-03	620.87	609.37	3.40	4468368	Deceleration	4	22
2026-03-27	602.32	608.55	3.73	7104737	Deceleration	-20	31
2026-03-20	599.99	608.09	1.01	7918531	Deceleration	6	19
2026-03-13	607.98	607.72	0.46	11737986	Upward Expansion	28	19
2026-03-06	619.99	606.57	0.85	8912997	Upward Expansion	60	45
2026-02-27	649.58	604.73	3.52	4395212	Upward Expansion	67	75
2026-02-20	655.34	601.77	3.91	3933215	Upward Expansion	77	74
2026-02-13	647.43	599.30	3.84	4364787	Upward Expansion	73	71
2026-02-06	652.07	596.81	3.23	6200957	Upward Expansion	82	81
2026-01-30	624.45	594.17	-1.38	4837081	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-01-23	632.99	592.55	0.21	4275370	Upward Expansion	72	78
2026-01-16	636.67	590.12	0.31	4331015	Upward Expansion	82	80
2026-01-09	628.24	587.10	-1.49	5214107	Upward Expansion	79	73
2026-01-02	608.27	584.25	-3.23	2923886	Upward Expansion	60	62
2025-12-26	612.27	582.31	-3.75	2743980	Upward Expansion	65	68
2025-12-19	608.53	579.93	-3.12	4217681	Upward Expansion	63	63
2025-12-12	607.89	577.54	-3.23	5676674	Deceleration	62	50
2025-12-05	602.21	575.84	-4.87	4453131	Deceleration	57	30
2025-11-28	600.33	573.46	-5.08	4001830	Deceleration	56	24
2025-11-21	577.37	571.06	-5.60	7235316	Deceleration	14	9
2025-11-14	581.17	568.81	-7.07	4449423	Deceleration	35	21
2025-11-07	587.74	565.93	-6.13	5042773	Deceleration	38	25
2025-10-31	587.94	562.68	-7.86	4348141	Deceleration	38	21
2025-10-24	597.35	558.97	-5.96	3229698	Deceleration	51	29
2025-10-17	583.85	556.55	-6.47	4839967	Upward Expansion	41	25
2025-10-10	572.86	554.76	-6.85	4817526	Upward Expansion	46	33
2025-10-03	595.57	553.22	-5.71	3419766	Upward Expansion	65	51
2025-09-26	591.60	551.27	-5.47	3174976	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-09-19	594.32	550.09	-5.49	4195537	Upward Expansion	67	71
2025-09-12	593.91	548.85	-4.57	3841851	Upward Expansion	69	79
2025-09-05	596.15	548.19	-2.85	2279072	Upward Expansion	75	78
2025-08-29	588.51	547.50	-3.89	4504056	Upward Expansion	72	62
2025-08-22	588.90	547.25	-4.02	3765753	Upward Expansion	75	49
2025-08-15	573.57	547.20	-6.41	3377708	Upward Expansion	63	43
2025-08-08	564.74	547.45	-7.11	2698516	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-08-01	560.75	547.16	-5.68	3182418	Rotation Up	36	55
2025-07-25	581.20	547.32	-4.78	3256624	Rotation Up	48	71
2025-07-18	572.94	546.70	-4.92	3241818	Rotation Up	41	64
2025-07-11	572.76	546.29	-4.50	3413645	Rotation Up	36	58
2025-07-04	575.92	546.78	-4.34	3649831	Rotation Up	39	49
2025-06-27	560.18	547.47	-5.42	4426937	Balance	25	30
2025-06-20	545.94	548.90	-4.74	3458243	Balance	-3	12
2025-06-13	542.64	550.65	-5.57	3441372	Balance	-6	14
2025-06-06	550.32	551.70	-4.68	3518694	Balance	-1	16
2025-05-30	540.82	553.02	-4.90	3129676	Downward Expansion	-19	22
2025-05-23	536.82	553.50	-4.13	3642654	Downward Expansion	-24	25
2025-05-16	556.80	554.15	-3.25	4382076	Downward Expansion	-17	21
2025-05-09	530.84	554.66	-3.06	3199407	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2025-05-02	528.26	555.77	-4.12	4217554	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-04-25	510.06	556.75	-4.90	4460662	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2025-04-18	494.56	558.34	-3.74	4386332	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2025-04-11	490.31	560.35	-6.08	17982931	Downward Expansion	-77	84
2025-04-04	476.78	562.09	-3.69	9691617	Downward Expansion	-93	91
2025-03-28	524.57	563.72	-3.82	3885337	Downward Expansion	-74	82
2025-03-21	530.15	564.64	-4.43	4898931	Rotation Down	-73	80
2025-03-14	526.75	565.40	-4.73	5077482	Rotation Down	-52	68
2025-03-07	537.03	565.76	-5.25	7057242	Deceleration	-37	50
2025-02-28	556.30	565.32	-5.06	4600747	Deceleration	-20	26
2025-02-21	556.99	564.29	-6.01	3722795	Deceleration	0	5
2025-02-14	574.19	564.01	-4.81	4098204	Deceleration	36	25
2025-02-07	575.54	562.80	-3.31	4932785	Deceleration	38	27
2025-01-31	580.77	561.59	-2.69	5694071	Deceleration	37	22
2025-01-24	587.46	559.45	-2.64	3035596	Deceleration	33	16
2025-01-17	581.19	557.29	-2.11	3835333	Deceleration	30	21
2025-01-10	556.12	555.35	-3.66	3393095	Deceleration	8	23
2025-01-03	565.46	554.02	-4.07	4072915	Deceleration	26	25
2024-12-27	562.62	552.51	-5.20	2921310	Upward Expansion	32	20
2024-12-20	560.66	551.48	-5.10	7061986	Upward Expansion	52	40
2024-12-13	587.44	550.45	-2.60	3415537	Upward Expansion	66	77
2024-12-06	596.40	548.77	-1.84	3375564	Upward Expansion	68	81
2024-11-29	603.32	546.63	0.08	4873970	Upward Expansion	79	84
2024-11-22	598.28	543.89	0.37	4829042	Upward Expansion	81	75
2024-11-15	574.20	541.12	-2.07	3901246	Upward Expansion	62	47
2024-11-08	590.06	538.79	-1.51	5974121	Upward Expansion	82	65
2024-11-01	555.25	536.32	-2.93	4106515	Upward Expansion	58	49
2024-10-25	556.11	535.52	-4.21	3251260	Upward Expansion	60	57
2024-10-18	572.08	535.03	-2.50	2723689	Upward Expansion	73	71
2024-10-11	564.28	533.66	-3.07	2858973	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-10-04	557.68	532.17	-3.18	3715556	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-09-27	557.59	531.05	-3.03	3642600	Upward Expansion	62	35
2024-09-20	554.98	529.67	-3.07	4312930	Upward Expansion	63	36
2024-09-13	542.54	528.06	-4.01	2678098	Upward Expansion	51	37
2024-09-06	525.47	526.70	-3.43	2950725	Upward Expansion	40	32
2024-08-30	552.18	525.79	-2.83	2584782	Upward Expansion	63	44
2024-08-23	553.03	523.74	-2.56	2688617	Upward Expansion	64	33
2024-08-16	537.71	521.64	-4.04	2278391	Upward Expansion	52	27
2024-08-09	523.67	519.91	-2.97	5189728	Upward Expansion	41	26
2024-08-02	525.33	518.58	-2.80	5566171	Upward Expansion	50	49
2024-07-26	548.63	517.10	-0.80	4561221	Balance	70	63
2024-07-19	537.88	515.24	-3.65	3891658	Balance	57	39
2024-07-12	539.41	513.77	-5.43	3954754	Balance	59	28
2024-07-05	516.55	512.00	-8.74	3961699	Balance	8	10
2024-06-28	522.66	510.31	-6.12	3671131	Balance	26	16
2024-06-21	522.93	508.38	-6.29	2867263	Balance	30	15
2024-06-14	516.12	506.05	-7.05	4246401	Upward Expansion	33	18
2024-06-07	520.32	503.81	-4.92	4893384	Upward Expansion	53	38
2024-05-31	531.52	500.85	-1.79	3180219	Upward Expansion	58	50
2024-05-24	529.99	497.74	-2.53	2610274	Upward Expansion	58	47
2024-05-17	536.88	493.79	-1.33	3446147	Deceleration	71	49
2024-05-10	532.41	489.99	-0.59	3318839	Deceleration	55	31
2024-05-03	521.04	486.64	-0.96	4487012	Deceleration	38	25
2024-04-26	515.17	483.74	-1.57	3979298	Upward Expansion	40	26
2024-04-19	504.37	481.29	-1.18	4773694	Upward Expansion	49	42
2024-04-12	515.72	479.17	-2.17	5144007	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-04-05	531.22	477.09	-0.82	5047964	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-03-29	541.47	474.53	0.12	3398832	Upward Expansion	86	89
2024-03-22	530.95	472.18	-1.58	3803009	Upward Expansion	82	90
2024-03-15	519.77	469.64	-1.62	4280511	Upward Expansion	74	87
2024-03-08	523.93	467.47	-1.00	5626514	Upward Expansion	84	90
2024-03-01	516.36	465.64	-2.84	4371294	Upward Expansion	84	88
2024-02-23	506.64	464.17	-4.01	2527667	Upward Expansion	77	78
2024-02-16	501.72	463.23	-3.65	4761939	Upward Expansion	75	74
2024-02-09	498.20	462.38	-4.93	3731035	Upward Expansion	73	61
2024-02-02	490.53	461.46	-5.37	6073229	Upward Expansion	67	54
2024-01-26	490.01	460.38	-4.42	4650438	Upward Expansion	67	52
2024-01-19	485.84	459.45	-4.50	4864984	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-01-12	483.80	458.00	-4.00	4804360	Upward Expansion	65	74
2024-01-05	480.91	457.00	-3.03	4719677	Upward Expansion	67	81
2023-12-29	492.83	455.86	-2.37	2615406	Rotation Up	78	87
2023-12-22	493.91	454.12	-1.97	4294468	Rotation Up	50	74
2023-12-15	486.22	451.98	-2.76	5469139	Rotation Up	47	64
2023-12-08	465.98	450.15	-4.71	4279869	Rotation Up	32	38
2023-12-01	464.66	448.86	-4.92	5820187	Downward Expansion	19	27
2023-11-24	453.15	447.78	-6.69	2680038	Downward Expansion	-19	20
2023-11-17	448.73	447.24	-6.90	5196414	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2023-11-10	431.54	446.90	-8.60	3503455	Rotation Down	-60	47
2023-11-03	438.36	447.08	-6.14	5362173	Rotation Down	-37	52
2023-10-27	411.33	446.78	-6.98	5439487	Rotation Down	-58	76
2023-10-20	423.02	447.76	-6.90	5692196	Rotation Down	-43	66

Price vs TrendBelow-0.4%

Trend directionRising+2.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+16.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-7.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.5%

Price momentumPositive+4.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.97×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-23 / ±100

-45.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

45 /100

+26.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MDY Directional State ↗ MDY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance41

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion23

Deceleration53

Rotation Down65

Downward Expansion50

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 6%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 56%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 8%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	+0.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-09-11	Established	+2.2%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-04-24	Developing	+10.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-03-13	Established	-0.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-12-12	Developing	+1.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-10-17	Developing	+3.4%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-08-01	Developing	-2.6%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-27	New	+1.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-28	2025-05-30	Developing	+3.1%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-03-21	New	+0.6%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-03-07	Developing	-5.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-02	2024-12-27	Established	+7.1%
Balance	2024-06-21	2024-07-26	Developing	+4.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing29

Stage 2 · Advancing57

Stage 3 · Distribution79

Stage 4 · Declining43

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 72/100
Current Relative Strength: -5.61
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +4.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.5%
Sector regime cohort: 15th percentile310 in cohort

Test MDY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.34×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.97×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MDY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 669.07falling

Slow Activity USD 681.95falling

Trend Reference USD 672.80-0.4% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 573.13+16.9% close margin

Structural low USD 638.49shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +2.5%

Annualized volatility +10.9%

From structural high -6.4%

From structural low +18.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	-0.1%-6.9% to +8.0%	+25.0%	+75.0%	+0.7%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	3	+3.0%-5.1% to +12.1%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+1.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+12.8%-3.8% to +19.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+0.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+15.4%+4.8% to +30.7%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-3.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MDY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map