Weekly structural research · GER · Industrials

BYW6 Stage Analysis

BayWa Aktiengesellschaft

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 2.62Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -34−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 25/100lifecycle context

Confidence 66/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -64.1%EUR 7.30 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	2.62	2.65	-15.05	44943	Balance	-34	20
2026-09-18	2.54	2.67	-18.55	213145	Balance	-39	21
2026-09-11	2.60	2.68	-18.80	36748	Balance	-29	16
2026-09-04	2.60	2.70	-21.57	81006	Balance	-23	11
2026-08-28	2.68	2.72	-22.16	83269	Balance	-7	11
2026-08-21	2.64	2.75	-23.67	6885	Balance	-6	15
2026-08-14	2.74	2.78	-22.91	23399	Balance	1	18
2026-08-07	2.70	2.83	-25.50	19327	Balance	-16	20
2026-07-31	2.72	2.85	-24.29	9495	Downward Expansion	-19	20
2026-07-24	2.68	2.86	-25.41	22166	Downward Expansion	-35	22
2026-07-17	2.59	2.86	-28.39	11238	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2026-07-10	2.55	2.85	-31.23	19923	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2026-07-03	2.54	2.85	-34.28	11436	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2026-06-26	2.23	2.85	-40.59	60390	Downward Expansion	-85	81
2026-06-19	2.40	2.86	-37.94	14545	Downward Expansion	-77	67
2026-06-12	2.59	2.86	-32.82	13800	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2026-06-05	2.62	2.86	-33.11	55193	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2026-05-29	2.62	2.94	-34.99	104658	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2026-05-22	2.61	3.03	-35.38	100472	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2026-05-15	2.64	3.08	-32.81	82317	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2026-05-08	2.70	3.14	-33.07	206076	Downward Expansion	-45	27
2026-05-01	2.80	3.19	-31.16	130617	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2026-04-24	2.76	3.25	-32.50	102794	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2026-04-17	2.82	3.32	-33.34	208385	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-04-10	2.68	3.39	-35.07	182123	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2026-04-03	2.74	3.46	-32.76	129603	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2026-03-27	2.64	3.54	-33.22	165658	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2026-03-20	2.68	3.64	-32.98	204156	Downward Expansion	-65	47
2026-03-13	2.76	3.74	-34.78	754169	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2026-03-06	3.05	3.85	-28.91	218064	Downward Expansion	-45	38
2026-02-27	3.13	3.95	-32.38	519891	Downward Expansion	-42	42
2026-02-20	3.02	4.03	-35.34	557676	Downward Expansion	-48	40
2026-02-13	3.14	4.13	-32.34	379330	Balance	-30	20
2026-02-06	3.18	4.21	-31.63	788119	Balance	-19	21
2026-01-30	3.40	4.27	-27.19	429349	Downward Expansion	-23	24
2026-01-23	3.57	4.33	-25.50	1152106	Downward Expansion	-27	24
2026-01-16	4.33	4.38	-12.09	1880834	Downward Expansion	-21	18
2026-01-09	3.44	4.39	-30.84	2036763	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2026-01-02	3.05	4.44	-37.84	1581793	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2025-12-26	2.42	4.49	-51.32	237052	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2025-12-19	2.38	4.58	-52.53	967546	Downward Expansion	-68	77
2025-12-12	2.57	4.66	-49.44	651075	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2025-12-05	2.52	4.73	-50.85	649916	Downward Expansion	-69	83
2025-11-28	2.48	4.80	-51.99	1792212	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2025-11-21	2.50	4.88	-50.74	1423455	Downward Expansion	-80	59
2025-11-14	2.69	4.95	-49.48	3843256	Rotation Down	-79	44
2025-11-07	4.92	5.02	-7.61	852883	Rotation Down	-12	11
2025-10-31	5.15	5.02	-5.26	702427	Rotation Down	-24	24
2025-10-24	4.22	4.99	-23.87	227962	Rotation Down	-44	61
2025-10-17	4.38	5.00	-20.51	184827	Rotation Down	-30	51
2025-10-10	4.30	5.01	-24.11	233516	Rotation Down	-35	49
2025-10-03	4.65	5.01	-19.50	218272	Balance	-25	32
2025-09-26	4.74	5.00	-16.97	251479	Balance	-23	27
2025-09-19	4.83	5.00	-16.31	992124	Balance	9	19
2025-09-12	4.93	5.00	-15.64	199327	Upward Expansion	17	17
2025-09-05	5.18	5.00	-11.90	222542	Upward Expansion	36	21
2025-08-29	5.51	5.01	-8.42	211802	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-08-22	5.74	4.99	-7.23	239312	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-08-15	6.04	4.99	-3.57	183106	Upward Expansion	66	71
2025-08-08	6.23	4.98	-1.08	222805	Rotation Up	76	74
2025-08-01	5.47	4.98	-11.55	232479	Rotation Up	32	52
2025-07-25	6.07	5.01	-6.44	296860	Rotation Up	54	62
2025-07-18	5.41	4.98	-17.85	243148	Balance	41	44
2025-07-11	4.97	4.98	-25.12	289141	Balance	12	20
2025-07-04	5.12	5.00	-24.04	163570	Balance	3	15
2025-06-27	5.04	5.02	-28.14	114901	Balance	-4	7
2025-06-20	4.74	5.02	-32.26	138550	Balance	-14	11
2025-06-13	4.91	5.04	-32.41	231002	Balance	-11	9
2025-06-06	4.75	5.04	-38.32	207983	Balance	-18	10
2025-05-30	5.09	5.05	-35.01	208419	Balance	-10	7
2025-05-23	4.63	5.08	-41.63	100134	Downward Expansion	-47	24
2025-05-16	4.72	5.12	-42.48	202936	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2025-05-09	4.69	5.17	-43.74	89784	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-05-02	4.72	5.24	-43.95	149447	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2025-04-25	4.61	5.32	-44.66	99871	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2025-04-18	4.77	5.41	-41.44	172573	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2025-04-11	4.92	5.47	-38.65	254077	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2025-04-04	4.26	5.53	-48.81	271908	Downward Expansion	-65	48
2025-03-28	4.69	5.59	-49.68	164687	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2025-03-21	4.51	5.66	-53.69	261046	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2025-03-14	4.34	5.75	-56.79	261307	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2025-03-07	4.43	5.87	-57.11	320480	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2025-02-28	4.59	5.98	-56.00	1052946	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2025-02-21	4.93	6.08	-53.56	219715	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2025-02-14	5.04	6.17	-54.32	218173	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2025-02-07	5.24	6.23	-52.36	216695	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2025-01-31	5.13	6.48	-54.47	621968	Downward Expansion	-56	27
2025-01-24	5.57	6.72	-51.18	294348	Downward Expansion	-25	17
2025-01-17	5.96	6.91	-47.93	146144	Downward Expansion	-30	18
2025-01-10	5.97	7.12	-47.33	259829	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2025-01-03	6.48	7.31	-43.31	792618	Downward Expansion	-33	23
2024-12-27	5.16	7.51	-56.11	76099	Downward Expansion	-54	42
2024-12-20	5.36	7.76	-55.41	221423	Downward Expansion	-50	41
2024-12-13	5.56	8.02	-55.99	200189	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2024-12-06	5.71	8.27	-55.85	610525	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-11-29	5.15	8.52	-59.57	250519	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2024-11-22	5.33	8.79	-58.44	135697	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2024-11-15	4.88	9.03	-62.60	227791	Downward Expansion	-82	90
2024-11-08	5.17	9.29	-61.27	178656	Downward Expansion	-82	91
2024-11-01	5.82	9.58	-57.57	128996	Downward Expansion	-74	85
2024-10-25	5.93	9.87	-58.26	232793	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-10-18	6.19	10.15	-57.95	248377	Downward Expansion	-72	54
2024-10-11	6.81	10.40	-54.07	267634	Downward Expansion	-51	41
2024-10-04	7.22	10.67	-51.68	286555	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-09-27	7.34	10.96	-52.69	393384	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2024-09-20	6.33	11.26	-58.43	397543	Downward Expansion	-70	66
2024-09-13	6.66	11.60	-57.14	147960	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2024-09-06	6.19	11.93	-60.15	260123	Downward Expansion	-78	69
2024-08-30	6.70	12.26	-58.99	206906	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2024-08-23	7.27	12.60	-55.66	304111	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2024-08-16	8.04	12.93	-50.89	550457	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2024-08-09	7.81	13.20	-51.39	400366	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2024-08-02	7.57	13.50	-53.44	1121654	Downward Expansion	-81	90
2024-07-26	7.47	13.84	-56.78	2736611	Downward Expansion	-90	77
2024-07-19	6.82	14.18	-60.72	1694829	Downward Expansion	-95	75
2024-07-12	12.90	14.54	-29.37	213146	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-07-05	12.11	14.70	-33.58	402945	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2024-06-28	11.51	14.89	-36.90	177659	Downward Expansion	-81	88
2024-06-21	12.14	15.07	-34.09	266785	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2024-06-14	11.57	15.23	-37.41	292602	Downward Expansion	-86	75
2024-06-07	12.51	15.43	-35.23	189919	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2024-05-31	12.85	15.61	-34.12	185397	Downward Expansion	-68	57
2024-05-24	13.02	15.81	-34.72	93867	Downward Expansion	-67	59
2024-05-17	13.05	15.97	-35.34	142931	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2024-05-10	13.39	16.13	-34.58	216214	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2024-05-03	13.02	16.29	-34.33	128308	Downward Expansion	-69	86
2024-04-26	12.73	16.46	-36.99	216573	Downward Expansion	-81	90
2024-04-19	12.59	16.67	-36.90	328690	Downward Expansion	-88	91
2024-04-12	13.73	16.90	-32.71	242158	Downward Expansion	-78	88
2024-04-05	14.55	17.09	-30.33	312138	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2024-03-29	14.30	17.21	-33.33	210651	Downward Expansion	-75	85
2024-03-22	13.90	17.35	-34.88	266780	Downward Expansion	-89	88
2024-03-15	14.70	17.47	-30.97	426178	Downward Expansion	-85	73
2024-03-08	15.95	17.57	-25.43	122084	Downward Expansion	-69	48
2024-03-01	16.46	17.66	-23.40	165872	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2024-02-23	16.57	17.82	-22.15	100639	Downward Expansion	-57	45
2024-02-16	16.49	17.99	-21.83	89566	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2024-02-09	16.14	18.16	-23.19	160135	Downward Expansion	-69	59
2024-02-02	16.83	18.34	-20.63	93569	Downward Expansion	-57	51
2024-01-26	17.28	18.49	-19.31	127092	Downward Expansion	-53	43
2024-01-19	16.12	18.63	-23.52	186014	Downward Expansion	-71	51
2024-01-12	16.83	18.80	-21.57	253429	Downward Expansion	-62	34
2024-01-05	17.59	18.98	-18.18	48813	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2023-12-29	17.79	19.13	-18.70	34742	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2023-12-22	17.68	19.26	-19.77	85149	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2023-12-15	17.74	19.37	-20.51	198515	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2023-12-08	17.62	19.48	-21.83	147131	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2023-12-01	17.08	19.57	-23.33	168980	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2023-11-24	16.86	19.71	-23.37	112232	Downward Expansion	-73	49
2023-11-17	17.42	19.86	-21.06	109785	Downward Expansion	-69	45
2023-11-10	17.96	20.01	-15.78	135346	Downward Expansion	-63	42
2023-11-03	18.79	20.12	-12.37	107856	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2023-10-27	17.96	20.19	-14.09	116057	Downward Expansion	-62	48
2023-10-20	17.85	20.34	-16.05	80625	Downward Expansion	-66	48
2023-10-13	18.05	20.50	-17.92	145953	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2023-10-06	18.19	20.65	-18.17	106874	Downward Expansion	-52	32

Price vs TrendBelow-1.2%

Trend directionFalling-7.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-64.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+10.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-15.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+25.5%

Price momentumNegative-0.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.71×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-34 / ±100

-27.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

20 /100

+8.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BYW6 Directional State ↗ BYW6 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance53

Rotation Up12

Upward Expansion7

Deceleration62

Rotation Down49

Downward Expansion66

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 3%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 78%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	-2.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-07-31	Established	-9.6%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-02-13	New	-1.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-01-30	Developing	+36.2%
Rotation Down	2025-10-10	2025-11-14	Developing	-37.4%
Balance	2025-09-19	2025-10-03	New	-3.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-09-12	Developing	-18.4%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	+2.6%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-07-18	Developing	+6.3%
Downward Expansion	2023-02-24	2025-05-23	Extended	-79.4%
Rotation Down	2023-02-03	2023-02-17	New	-2.3%
Balance	2023-01-06	2023-01-27	New	-1.1%
Upward Expansion	2022-12-02	2022-12-30	Developing	-5.8%
Rotation Up	2022-11-18	2022-11-25	New	+0.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing79

Stage 2 · Advancing7

Stage 3 · Distribution12

Stage 4 · Declining93

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 90/100
Current Relative Strength: -15.05
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -0.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -14.7%
Industrials regime cohort: 59th percentile17 in cohort

Test BYW6 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.89×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.71×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BYW6 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 2.60falling

Slow Activity EUR 2.62falling

Trend Reference EUR 2.65-1.2% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 7.30-64.1% close margin

Structural low EUR 2.18shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.4%

Annualized volatility +28.9%

From structural high -67.2%

From structural low +20.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-1.4%-9.3% to +20.5%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-0.8%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-4.4%-50.6% to +36.9%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-3.2%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-12.7%-51.3% to +30.9%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-23.1%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-25.5%-48.6% to +32.0%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-39.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BYW6 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map