Weekly structural research · MEX · Industrials

HTZ1 Stage Analysis

Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 31.10Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -80−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 90/100directional strength

Maturity 73/100lifecycle context

Confidence 95/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -69.4%MXN 101.78 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	31.10	66.47	-60.11	102243	Downward Expansion	-80	90
2026-09-18	32.23	68.00	-58.63	51665	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2026-09-11	35.00	69.55	-56.44	28335	Downward Expansion	-57	59
2026-09-04	38.80	71.27	-53.34	25407	Downward Expansion	-53	58
2026-08-28	35.90	72.91	-57.97	25364	Downward Expansion	-55	61
2026-08-21	37.53	74.58	-57.03	755	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2026-08-14	38.50	76.75	-55.81	1572	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2026-08-07	39.03	78.75	-57.56	133903	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2026-07-31	28.06	80.76	-70.00	6414	Downward Expansion	-82	94
2026-07-24	34.00	83.04	-64.20	0	Downward Expansion	-74	91
2026-07-17	32.84	85.10	-66.42	557	Downward Expansion	-85	95
2026-07-10	36.21	87.01	-63.90	6069	Downward Expansion	-91	97
2026-07-03	37.11	89.08	-64.12	0	Downward Expansion	-94	94
2026-06-26	48.00	90.95	-54.66	11434	Downward Expansion	-92	80
2026-06-19	87.00	92.42	-19.92	0	Balance	-20	24
2026-06-12	87.50	92.62	-20.73	253	Balance	-9	21
2026-06-05	90.00	93.31	-17.19	35	Rotation Up	17	20
2026-05-29	94.20	94.37	-17.26	30	Rotation Up	5	12
2026-05-22	92.14	94.40	-19.59	38398	Rotation Up	9	14
2026-05-15	101.87	94.50	-11.52	38	Rotation Up	30	32
2026-05-08	103.55	94.40	-13.21	37	Rotation Up	35	61
2026-05-01	112.00	94.48	-4.27	557	Rotation Up	33	49
2026-04-24	100.00	94.98	-16.90	104	Rotation Up	23	43
2026-04-17	123.50	95.85	0.23	7875	Rotation Up	51	55
2026-04-10	111.00	95.70	-10.04	3597	Rotation Up	5	22
2026-04-03	88.00	95.83	-28.42	8	Downward Expansion	-52	47
2026-03-27	84.00	96.45	-28.91	68198	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2026-03-20	68.14	97.20	-40.28	51070	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2026-03-13	70.70	98.53	-39.84	8101	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-03-06	76.10	99.47	-37.23	12078	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2026-02-27	77.10	100.44	-40.37	26260	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2026-02-20	78.74	101.93	-39.50	90490	Downward Expansion	-87	92
2026-02-13	86.70	103.98	-33.71	31871	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2026-02-06	87.81	105.95	-32.44	66030	Downward Expansion	-70	58
2026-01-30	86.10	107.39	-30.94	33065	Downward Expansion	-67	34
2026-01-23	102.50	108.86	-18.75	116	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2026-01-16	98.50	109.77	-20.74	204	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2026-01-09	99.37	110.82	-18.81	251	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2026-01-02	96.50	111.84	-18.84	25	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-12-26	95.76	112.96	-21.19	37	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2025-12-19	90.10	114.10	-23.84	10	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2025-12-12	98.30	115.43	-17.82	7232	Downward Expansion	-58	63
2025-12-05	93.30	116.49	-20.65	120310	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2025-11-28	92.00	117.76	-22.36	17222	Downward Expansion	-70	43
2025-11-21	93.00	119.12	-19.75	983	Downward Expansion	-73	43
2025-11-14	108.20	121.35	-7.34	739	Downward Expansion	-53	37
2025-11-07	122.00	120.63	2.96	9593	Downward Expansion	-43	59
2025-10-31	95.00	119.45	-18.37	210	Downward Expansion	-75	87
2025-10-24	95.14	119.16	-15.76	102960	Deceleration	-77	73
2025-10-17	98.97	118.88	-12.83	21344	Deceleration	-43	26
2025-10-10	106.00	118.46	-4.44	1638	Deceleration	-18	19
2025-10-03	127.00	117.81	12.47	318	Deceleration	21	30
2025-09-26	126.00	116.46	11.97	306	Deceleration	12	18
2025-09-19	119.00	115.14	8.58	6457	Deceleration	-18	22
2025-09-12	115.00	113.89	4.70	909	Rotation Down	-26	40
2025-09-05	106.50	112.78	-0.27	0	Rotation Down	-29	73
2025-08-29	106.50	112.23	3.29	617	Rotation Down	-28	54
2025-08-22	108.00	111.34	4.50	32019	Rotation Down	-30	55
2025-08-15	99.00	110.41	-2.06	28482	Rotation Down	-33	70
2025-08-08	105.00	109.69	4.70	4236	Rotation Down	-4	14
2025-08-01	122.00	108.78	24.73	3927	Upward Expansion	64	83
2025-07-25	140.00	106.95	43.23	68	Upward Expansion	75	89
2025-07-18	146.03	104.52	53.97	212	Deceleration	80	60
2025-07-11	131.00	101.90	39.13	76	Deceleration	59	50
2025-07-04	130.00	100.76	36.56	16	Deceleration	48	49
2025-06-27	130.00	99.66	39.24	0	Deceleration	49	54
2025-06-20	130.00	98.56	43.41	0	Deceleration	50	56
2025-06-13	130.00	96.80	42.73	0	Upward Expansion	61	61
2025-06-06	130.00	95.06	43.02	0	Upward Expansion	63	64
2025-05-30	130.00	92.66	45.24	0	Upward Expansion	65	69
2025-05-23	130.00	90.26	45.33	0	Upward Expansion	66	84
2025-05-16	130.00	87.86	47.78	50117	Upward Expansion	66	88
2025-05-09	131.50	85.69	54.88	95903	Upward Expansion	73	91
2025-05-02	132.75	83.48	60.28	24500	Upward Expansion	87	95
2025-04-25	160.00	81.22	92.31	145	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-04-18	86.50	78.05	13.23	0	Upward Expansion	60	58
2025-04-11	86.50	77.34	16.05	0	Upward Expansion	63	81
2025-04-04	86.50	76.62	15.38	0	Upward Expansion	62	66
2025-03-28	86.50	75.90	10.88	0	Upward Expansion	64	75
2025-03-21	86.50	75.19	11.05	0	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-03-14	86.50	74.47	10.61	0	Upward Expansion	64	54
2025-03-07	86.50	74.05	8.86	0	Upward Expansion	65	58
2025-02-28	86.50	73.64	8.88	271	Upward Expansion	70	71
2025-02-21	81.50	73.24	-0.99	0	Upward Expansion	56	56
2025-02-14	81.50	73.00	-2.51	98918	Upward Expansion	57	59
2025-02-07	90.00	72.92	8.71	5	Deceleration	75	62
2025-01-31	80.00	72.09	-1.39	0	Deceleration	54	35
2025-01-24	80.00	71.95	-2.87	39	Deceleration	38	20
2025-01-17	77.50	71.82	-4.66	0	Deceleration	22	27
2025-01-10	77.50	70.98	-5.46	539	Deceleration	21	33
2025-01-03	67.22	70.51	-18.17	0	Upward Expansion	11	25
2024-12-27	67.22	70.56	-20.07	0	Upward Expansion	31	35
2024-12-20	67.22	70.92	-21.80	49443	Upward Expansion	49	79
2024-12-13	97.00	71.41	6.69	65	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-12-06	97.00	70.91	6.19	0	Rotation Up	93	78
2024-11-29	97.00	70.41	8.23	27	Rotation Up	55	64
2024-11-22	77.00	70.01	-16.05	64	Rotation Up	26	39
2024-11-15	77.90	70.28	-16.46	475	Rotation Up	-14	26
2024-11-08	58.00	71.35	-40.38	0	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2024-11-01	58.00	73.53	-40.16	0	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2024-10-25	58.00	75.88	-43.99	20771	Downward Expansion	-92	95
2024-10-18	65.00	78.22	-41.35	112	Downward Expansion	-63	86
2024-10-11	65.00	80.25	-43.09	0	Downward Expansion	-64	85
2024-10-04	65.00	82.52	-45.50	0	Downward Expansion	-64	82
2024-09-27	65.00	84.72	-47.68	12	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2024-09-20	65.00	86.92	-48.91	0	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2024-09-13	65.00	89.00	-50.41	0	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2024-09-06	65.00	91.83	-51.11	0	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2024-08-30	65.00	94.60	-54.21	0	Downward Expansion	-72	59
2024-08-23	65.00	97.43	-56.21	25	Downward Expansion	-75	56
2024-08-16	74.00	100.57	-52.28	0	Downward Expansion	-45	43
2024-08-09	74.00	103.40	-52.82	9	Downward Expansion	-45	43
2024-08-02	74.50	106.23	-53.17	0	Downward Expansion	-48	50
2024-07-26	74.50	109.08	-54.96	10000	Downward Expansion	-50	50
2024-07-19	79.00	111.93	-54.25	20178	Downward Expansion	-51	50
2024-07-12	65.00	114.63	-64.19	19	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2024-07-05	76.02	117.80	-57.21	0	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2024-06-28	76.02	120.60	-58.33	10029	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2024-06-21	52.37	123.40	-72.07	26	Downward Expansion	-97	79
2024-06-14	63.35	126.99	-66.62	3467	Downward Expansion	-94	88
2024-06-07	68.70	130.21	-65.03	75	Downward Expansion	-94	96
2024-05-31	78.00	133.25	-62.63	3000	Downward Expansion	-83	94
2024-05-24	82.00	140.15	-61.63	0	Downward Expansion	-73	91
2024-05-17	82.00	146.92	-63.75	0	Downward Expansion	-80	93
2024-05-10	82.00	153.68	-64.49	20098	Downward Expansion	-92	94
2024-05-03	85.00	160.45	-63.48	0	Downward Expansion	-97	79
2024-04-26	85.00	167.12	-64.55	156	Downward Expansion	-99	80
2024-04-19	110.00	173.78	-53.26	324	Downward Expansion	-96	78
2024-04-12	123.50	179.62	-48.91	352	Downward Expansion	-83	74
2024-04-05	128.50	185.00	-48.90	21	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2024-03-29	128.00	190.22	-49.11	100	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2024-03-22	126.00	196.62	-49.92	42	Downward Expansion	-88	76
2024-03-15	133.00	203.08	-47.77	12	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2024-03-08	131.00	209.32	-48.31	0	Downward Expansion	-89	76
2024-03-01	131.00	215.62	-49.76	9	Downward Expansion	-98	99
2024-02-23	127.54	221.92	-52.79	16	Downward Expansion	-100	100
2024-02-16	150.00	228.33	-45.85	708	Downward Expansion	-90	97
2024-02-09	148.00	234.00	-47.59	23	Downward Expansion	-99	100
2024-02-02	150.00	239.73	-48.52	5	Downward Expansion	-80	71
2024-01-26	159.00	245.23	-44.93	0	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2024-01-19	159.00	249.27	-44.22	0	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2024-01-12	159.00	253.30	-44.97	79	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2024-01-05	160.00	257.33	-45.73	0	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2023-12-29	160.00	261.33	-47.41	0	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2023-12-22	160.00	265.33	-47.96	0	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2023-12-15	160.00	269.43	-48.35	0	Downward Expansion	-67	89
2023-12-08	160.00	273.53	-46.47	0	Downward Expansion	-67	89
2023-12-01	160.00	277.63	-46.64	0	Downward Expansion	-83	94
2023-11-24	160.00	281.97	-46.26	0	Downward Expansion	-94	98
2023-11-17	160.00	285.70	-46.57	0	Downward Expansion	-95	96
2023-11-10	160.00	289.63	-45.70	2435	Rotation Down	-93	77
2023-11-03	285.00	293.46	-4.44	0	Rotation Down	-36	57
2023-10-27	285.00	293.10	-0.32	0	Rotation Down	-29	75
2023-10-20	285.00	293.20	0.56	0	Rotation Down	-30	75
2023-10-13	285.00	295.36	-2.00	0	Rotation Down	-31	76
2023-10-06	285.00	297.53	-2.99	0	Rotation Down	-31	76

Price vs TrendBelow-53.2%

Trend directionFalling-21.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-69.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-8.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-60.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.4%

Price momentumNegative-63.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.71×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-80 / ±100

-24.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

90 /100

+29.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HTZ1 Directional State ↗ HTZ1 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance14

Rotation Up30

Upward Expansion21

Deceleration37

Rotation Down59

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 57%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-09-25	Established	-35.2%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-06-19	New	-0.6%
Rotation Up	2026-04-10	2026-06-05	Developing	-18.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-31	2026-04-03	Established	-7.4%
Deceleration	2025-09-19	2025-10-24	Developing	-20.1%
Rotation Down	2025-08-08	2025-09-12	Developing	+9.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-08-01	New	-12.9%
Deceleration	2025-06-20	2025-07-18	Developing	+12.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-06-13	Established	+59.5%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-02-07	Developing	+16.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-01-03	New	-30.7%
Rotation Up	2024-11-15	2024-12-06	New	+24.5%
Downward Expansion	2023-11-17	2024-11-08	Extended	-63.7%
Rotation Down	2023-09-08	2023-11-10	Developing	-43.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing56

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution14

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 92/100
Current Relative Strength: -60.11
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -63.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -60.4%
Industrials regime cohort: 91th percentile23 in cohort

Test HTZ1 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume4.73×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.71×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HTZ1 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 33.53falling

Slow Activity MXN 53.20falling

Trend Reference MXN 66.47-53.2% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 101.78-69.4% close margin

Structural low MXN 27.45shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +14.1%

Annualized volatility +119.3%

From structural high -76.7%

From structural low +13.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	22	-2.3%-33.9% to +81.2%	+22.7%	+63.6%	-3.9%	+90.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-9.4%-45.3% to +30.1%	+28.6%	+71.4%	-14.7%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	-5.0%-48.8% to +17.9%	+33.3%	+66.7%	+7.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-51.3%-51.3% to -51.3%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-47.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HTZ1 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map