Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

RLAY Stage Analysis

Relay Therapeutics Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 17.88Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 19−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 12/100directional strength

Maturity 56/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +115.5%USD 8.30 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	17.88	16.39	24.73	16346789	Deceleration	19	12
2026-10-02	18.96	16.14	34.29	13813172	Deceleration	34	18
2026-09-25	17.47	15.84	26.68	18030145	Deceleration	31	18
2026-09-18	18.84	15.59	43.32	20431540	Deceleration	39	26
2026-09-11	18.87	15.26	47.72	18256266	Deceleration	43	31
2026-09-04	19.04	14.93	51.39	12262639	Upward Expansion	46	37
2026-08-28	18.77	14.59	53.02	13477770	Upward Expansion	56	43
2026-08-21	19.44	14.22	62.78	11919205	Upward Expansion	60	48
2026-08-14	19.86	13.82	66.09	9587425	Upward Expansion	65	51
2026-08-07	19.77	13.40	71.41	9909348	Upward Expansion	67	55
2026-07-31	18.83	13.01	76.19	12731187	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-07-24	18.44	12.65	78.18	9580606	Upward Expansion	66	80
2026-07-17	19.91	12.32	94.34	11359188	Upward Expansion	75	88
2026-07-10	20.00	11.94	92.77	20226226	Upward Expansion	81	87
2026-07-03	18.65	11.54	88.30	16548769	Upward Expansion	78	80
2026-06-26	18.56	11.18	94.28	34166086	Upward Expansion	81	68
2026-06-19	15.88	10.82	63.45	17820932	Upward Expansion	68	46
2026-06-12	14.81	10.52	60.12	12265493	Deceleration	62	40
2026-06-05	13.52	10.23	52.85	29332779	Deceleration	41	27
2026-05-29	14.05	9.98	54.72	12844650	Deceleration	48	30
2026-05-22	13.53	9.75	56.55	42445652	Upward Expansion	43	26
2026-05-15	12.20	9.53	45.93	14408291	Upward Expansion	46	35
2026-05-08	12.76	9.34	55.12	13940496	Upward Expansion	63	55
2026-05-01	12.72	9.13	66.40	19785554	Upward Expansion	66	81
2026-04-24	15.13	8.89	105.23	12478413	Upward Expansion	71	88
2026-04-17	16.76	8.56	138.97	16403852	Upward Expansion	91	95
2026-04-10	14.94	8.16	134.42	22345485	Upward Expansion	90	82
2026-04-03	12.54	7.79	113.04	15039560	Upward Expansion	84	59
2026-03-27	9.60	7.51	75.17	11694395	Upward Expansion	60	48
2026-03-20	9.91	7.31	78.97	10570559	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-03-13	10.36	7.10	87.45	19566914	Upward Expansion	74	72
2026-03-06	9.89	6.87	80.80	11616219	Upward Expansion	70	72
2026-02-27	10.26	6.65	88.98	13441931	Upward Expansion	81	74
2026-02-20	8.70	6.42	63.42	5620887	Upward Expansion	61	47
2026-02-13	8.93	6.26	72.23	11000706	Deceleration	68	46
2026-02-06	8.92	6.08	72.70	16396235	Deceleration	60	36
2026-01-30	7.66	5.90	47.58	10354999	Deceleration	38	24
2026-01-23	7.43	5.76	44.18	12278581	Upward Expansion	43	31
2026-01-16	7.35	5.63	43.88	8923888	Upward Expansion	49	42
2026-01-09	7.99	5.49	56.25	11242835	Upward Expansion	63	57
2026-01-02	8.18	5.33	65.02	6091665	Upward Expansion	66	61
2025-12-26	8.56	5.17	71.65	8717684	Upward Expansion	75	75
2025-12-19	8.40	4.98	72.75	15038172	Upward Expansion	76	73
2025-12-12	8.03	4.80	68.34	13532631	Upward Expansion	74	64
2025-12-05	7.68	4.63	59.60	6077516	Upward Expansion	75	63
2025-11-28	7.92	4.47	67.70	8137800	Upward Expansion	83	63
2025-11-21	6.77	4.31	51.78	11119597	Upward Expansion	70	59
2025-11-14	6.29	4.20	37.38	12581261	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-11-07	6.05	4.08	31.94	13430202	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-10-31	7.14	3.95	50.09	10665365	Upward Expansion	82	91
2025-10-24	6.86	3.78	46.74	11002286	Upward Expansion	84	93
2025-10-17	6.49	3.64	41.46	8290394	Upward Expansion	86	94
2025-10-10	6.50	3.53	44.07	9360910	Upward Expansion	95	97
2025-10-03	5.48	3.44	17.87	6680899	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-09-26	5.17	3.37	11.33	9356215	Upward Expansion	90	90
2025-09-19	4.66	3.31	-1.74	9767587	Upward Expansion	86	81
2025-09-12	3.99	3.29	-15.66	5538000	Upward Expansion	65	65
2025-09-05	4.12	3.29	-13.22	7553163	Balance	72	61
2025-08-29	3.59	3.29	-24.84	3805913	Balance	51	27
2025-08-22	3.69	3.32	-24.35	5556220	Balance	29	16
2025-08-15	3.54	3.36	-29.47	8616477	Balance	14	12
2025-08-08	3.22	3.39	-36.59	11142638	Rotation Up	8	10
2025-08-01	3.36	3.43	-32.74	14801914	Rotation Up	27	25
2025-07-25	3.74	3.46	-28.46	22247556	Rotation Up	28	44
2025-07-18	3.50	3.48	-34.20	12512411	Balance	17	32
2025-07-11	3.60	3.51	-33.08	6096336	Balance	5	25
2025-07-04	3.63	3.54	-34.11	4711756	Balance	6	14
2025-06-27	3.30	3.58	-39.95	8322019	Balance	-9	12
2025-06-20	3.19	3.62	-40.42	8589282	Balance	-17	13
2025-06-13	3.22	3.68	-40.82	7102964	Downward Expansion	-20	12
2025-06-06	3.36	3.74	-39.63	7270762	Downward Expansion	-33	20
2025-05-30	3.00	3.83	-46.05	5255550	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2025-05-23	2.91	3.93	-47.46	7541281	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2025-05-16	2.81	4.03	-51.26	7057840	Downward Expansion	-42	24
2025-05-09	3.00	4.16	-45.28	21512899	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2025-05-02	3.25	4.29	-41.67	11618718	Downward Expansion	-48	38
2025-04-25	3.20	4.40	-41.54	10063373	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2025-04-18	2.69	4.54	-48.40	9577425	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2025-04-11	2.42	4.70	-55.25	20586375	Downward Expansion	-71	83
2025-04-04	2.00	4.87	-60.92	13828578	Downward Expansion	-84	78
2025-03-28	2.72	5.01	-52.92	12360852	Downward Expansion	-76	66
2025-03-21	3.06	5.15	-49.30	14444949	Downward Expansion	-73	65
2025-03-14	3.66	5.29	-40.23	12451041	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-03-07	3.46	5.38	-45.77	13379966	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2025-02-28	3.41	5.49	-49.52	10783590	Downward Expansion	-74	64
2025-02-21	3.92	5.63	-45.22	5834362	Downward Expansion	-65	47
2025-02-14	4.00	5.80	-46.53	6853905	Downward Expansion	-64	42
2025-02-07	4.22	5.95	-43.35	5366281	Downward Expansion	-50	33
2025-01-31	4.47	6.08	-40.95	9707818	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-01-24	4.85	6.15	-37.85	8973959	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-01-17	4.46	6.20	-43.02	18526444	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2025-01-10	4.45	6.29	-42.67	17383677	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2025-01-03	4.42	6.38	-45.56	5475007	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2024-12-27	4.36	6.50	-48.02	5732664	Downward Expansion	-69	80
2024-12-20	4.16	6.56	-51.05	14490099	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2024-12-13	4.71	6.65	-47.04	19151883	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2024-12-06	4.61	6.72	-48.73	13762718	Downward Expansion	-69	76
2024-11-29	4.70	6.78	-46.92	7142752	Downward Expansion	-71	73
2024-11-22	4.75	6.86	-46.72	10340738	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2024-11-15	5.10	6.91	-42.40	6484102	Downward Expansion	-72	66
2024-11-08	6.20	6.94	-33.31	7562918	Downward Expansion	-56	54
2024-11-01	5.84	6.97	-34.32	7007114	Balance	-62	55
2024-10-25	6.02	7.00	-33.98	5000748	Balance	-31	36
2024-10-18	6.73	7.08	-26.49	6220173	Balance	-8	14
2024-10-11	6.80	7.11	-25.99	10499778	Balance	3	3
2024-10-04	6.53	7.15	-28.60	7539189	Balance	-9	7
2024-09-27	7.46	7.28	-19.12	9134959	Balance	5	4
2024-09-20	7.50	7.36	-18.53	12081036	Balance	-16	8
2024-09-13	7.60	7.45	-16.94	48059811	Balance	-28	17
2024-09-06	6.24	7.56	-28.43	3277156	Balance	-61	44
2024-08-30	6.79	7.65	-27.52	3297551	Balance	-40	30
2024-08-23	7.20	7.72	-24.85	4194344	Balance	-33	25
2024-08-16	6.45	7.81	-32.84	2983406	Balance	-42	19
2024-08-09	6.70	7.93	-27.54	5724970	Balance	-20	18
2024-08-02	7.63	8.08	-18.30	5123902	Balance	16	27
2024-07-26	8.94	8.21	-8.35	5719275	Balance	8	24
2024-07-19	8.60	8.27	-15.11	8061091	Balance	2	8
2024-07-12	8.24	8.36	-22.93	5379515	Downward Expansion	-12	11
2024-07-05	6.36	8.43	-41.50	6230758	Downward Expansion	-60	35
2024-06-28	6.52	8.53	-38.92	6427977	Downward Expansion	-46	22
2024-06-21	6.94	8.60	-36.16	7882392	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2024-06-14	7.31	8.64	-33.66	7046659	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-06-07	7.90	8.68	-26.91	7688073	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2024-05-31	6.41	8.67	-39.76	4856944	Downward Expansion	-61	43
2024-05-24	6.82	8.71	-37.84	7058571	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-05-17	6.64	8.68	-39.48	6975727	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2024-05-10	6.42	8.69	-40.98	5348877	Downward Expansion	-66	56
2024-05-03	7.04	8.73	-35.17	5280192	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2024-04-26	6.37	8.77	-41.59	5719267	Rotation Down	-72	81
2024-04-19	5.96	8.84	-44.07	9078816	Rotation Down	-55	74
2024-04-12	7.03	8.93	-38.78	4293352	Rotation Down	-43	67
2024-04-05	6.90	9.01	-41.88	6553140	Rotation Down	-39	62
2024-03-29	8.30	9.10	-32.63	4551163	Rotation Down	-21	45
2024-03-22	7.79	9.19	-38.51	7053153	Balance	-28	37
2024-03-15	7.95	9.28	-36.74	7984800	Balance	-6	9
2024-03-08	10.32	9.37	-20.60	3578023	Balance	48	29
2024-03-01	10.08	9.38	-25.06	5000139	Balance	33	18
2024-02-23	10.00	9.42	-25.80	4721471	Balance	28	17
2024-02-16	10.84	9.49	-20.20	8618600	Balance	14	16
2024-02-09	9.09	9.54	-35.51	5164024	Rotation Up	-9	20
2024-02-02	9.00	9.65	-36.65	3872149	Rotation Up	-1	10
2024-01-26	9.72	9.74	-32.75	5278590	Rotation Up	18	22
2024-01-19	10.18	9.83	-31.13	3094619	Rotation Up	34	43
2024-01-12	11.00	9.89	-25.48	4855982	Rotation Up	29	62
2024-01-05	11.50	9.93	-21.56	3248727	Rotation Up	37	63
2023-12-29	11.01	9.91	-28.37	2328211	Rotation Up	34	51
2023-12-22	11.24	9.92	-27.72	5556578	Downward Expansion	38	39
2023-12-15	10.14	9.91	-35.08	6536237	Downward Expansion	6	19
2023-12-08	9.37	9.92	-39.13	7396775	Downward Expansion	-21	22
2023-12-01	8.70	9.95	-44.10	5418017	Downward Expansion	-35	23
2023-11-24	8.09	10.04	-49.00	2009237	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2023-11-17	8.62	10.15	-46.30	5719509	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2023-11-10	7.66	10.29	-52.30	6756181	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2023-11-03	7.52	10.61	-52.91	6576688	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2023-10-27	6.06	10.96	-60.59	7232086	Downward Expansion	-85	89
2023-10-20	6.77	11.31	-58.26	5728129	Downward Expansion	-83	86

Price vs TrendAbove+9.1%

Trend directionRising+26.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+115.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-49.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+24.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-68.0%

Price momentumPositive+19.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.49×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

19 / ±100

-23.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

12 /100

-18.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

RLAY Directional State ↗ RLAY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance59

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion48

Deceleration84

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion26

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 34%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-10-09	Developing	-5.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-09-04	Developing	+19.9%
Deceleration	2026-05-29	2026-06-12	New	+5.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-05-22	Established	+55.5%
Deceleration	2026-01-30	2026-02-13	New	+16.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2026-01-23	Established	+86.2%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-09-05	New	+16.4%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	-13.9%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-07-18	Developing	+9.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-06-13	Extended	-48.1%
Balance	2024-07-19	2024-11-01	Established	-32.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-03	2024-07-12	Developing	+17.0%
Rotation Down	2024-03-29	2024-04-26	Developing	-23.3%
Balance	2024-02-16	2024-03-22	Developing	-28.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing0

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution72

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 73/100
Current Relative Strength: 24.73
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +19.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -3.3%
Healthcare regime cohort: 43th percentile123 in cohort

Test RLAY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.02×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.49×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore RLAY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 18.28falling

Slow Activity USD 17.79rising

Trend Reference USD 16.39+9.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 8.30+115.5% close margin

Structural low USD 11.62shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +10.6%

Annualized volatility +52.4%

From structural high -15.9%

From structural low +205.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+32.1%-5.2% to +33.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+36.3%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	+49.8%+33.6% to +66.1%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+47.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	+145.8%+145.8% to +145.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+135.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	0	—	—	—	—	—	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

RLAY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map