Weekly structural research · TWO · Consumer Cyclical

4528 Stage Analysis

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TWD 14.95Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -63−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 58/100directional strength

Maturity 52/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -33.8%TWD 22.58 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	14.95	15.96	-35.81	45292	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2026-09-18	14.85	16.09	-36.18	185479	Downward Expansion	-70	66
2026-09-11	14.90	16.23	-35.68	51589	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2026-09-04	14.95	16.39	-37.16	47960	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2026-08-28	15.00	16.57	-37.55	77171	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2026-08-21	15.15	16.74	-36.30	12400	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2026-08-14	15.20	16.82	-37.73	13130	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2026-08-07	15.20	16.86	-36.36	15500	Downward Expansion	-64	49
2026-07-31	15.25	16.91	-35.39	12000	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2026-07-24	15.40	16.95	-36.37	11000	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2026-07-17	15.40	17.00	-35.73	32007	Downward Expansion	-62	48
2026-07-10	15.30	17.05	-40.69	121980	Downward Expansion	-66	49
2026-07-03	15.50	17.08	-42.57	146813	Downward Expansion	-63	44
2026-06-26	15.45	17.11	-40.79	383528	Downward Expansion	-67	45
2026-06-19	15.85	17.14	-42.56	160151	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2026-06-12	16.20	17.17	-39.15	171278	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2026-06-05	15.80	17.18	-42.72	349439	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2026-05-29	15.50	17.23	-44.29	290474	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2026-05-22	15.75	17.34	-41.06	121627	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2026-05-15	15.75	17.43	-40.41	135203	Downward Expansion	-75	82
2026-05-08	15.95	17.53	-41.20	228209	Rotation Down	-75	79
2026-05-01	16.20	17.63	-37.20	149832	Rotation Down	-45	65
2026-04-24	16.00	17.71	-38.90	673460	Rotation Down	-47	53
2026-04-17	17.15	17.81	-31.74	100524	Balance	-29	31
2026-04-10	16.80	17.88	-31.24	88600	Balance	-35	30
2026-04-03	17.40	17.98	-23.69	30390	Balance	-15	19
2026-03-27	17.59	17.97	-25.03	121000	Balance	-12	17
2026-03-20	17.69	17.95	-26.51	101167	Upward Expansion	24	19
2026-03-13	18.53	17.92	-23.75	75040	Upward Expansion	39	21
2026-03-06	18.04	17.87	-27.12	92839	Upward Expansion	55	35
2026-02-27	18.83	17.84	-28.65	94915	Upward Expansion	63	71
2026-02-13	19.27	17.77	-23.88	81153	Upward Expansion	63	77
2026-02-06	19.57	17.69	-19.13	189937	Rotation Up	56	68
2026-01-30	20.36	17.60	-17.17	518601	Rotation Up	52	58
2026-01-23	20.01	17.49	-18.82	1439531	Rotation Up	37	32
2026-01-16	17.74	17.41	-27.26	229500	Downward Expansion	-25	16
2026-01-09	16.31	17.39	-31.24	177290	Downward Expansion	-66	42
2026-01-02	16.56	17.44	-28.74	40294	Downward Expansion	-48	32
2025-12-26	16.65	17.50	-27.21	38013	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2025-12-19	16.70	17.56	-25.68	74100	Downward Expansion	-60	56
2025-12-12	17.05	17.64	-26.46	100305	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2025-12-05	16.26	17.71	-30.25	62288	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2025-11-28	16.31	17.80	-30.17	79070	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2025-11-21	16.31	17.91	-28.02	80539	Downward Expansion	-59	56
2025-11-14	16.95	17.98	-28.77	89899	Balance	-50	39
2025-11-07	16.46	18.02	-32.33	188361	Balance	-30	26
2025-10-31	17.35	18.02	-31.07	88301	Balance	14	12
2025-10-24	18.58	18.14	-25.23	30324	Balance	12	14
2025-10-17	18.63	18.24	-25.26	59361	Rotation Up	24	21
2025-10-10	18.78	18.36	-25.56	69000	Rotation Up	19	24
2025-10-03	18.78	18.50	-25.00	43026	Rotation Up	22	46
2025-09-26	18.73	18.64	-22.64	45532	Rotation Up	23	38
2025-09-19	18.88	18.77	-22.91	66895	Rotation Up	23	37
2025-09-12	19.17	18.90	-22.31	252126	Rotation Up	12	28
2025-09-05	20.01	19.03	-16.69	1186978	Rotation Up	5	16
2025-08-29	17.00	19.05	-29.15	108241	Downward Expansion	-49	47
2025-08-22	16.90	19.18	-29.01	103724	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2025-08-15	17.00	19.31	-31.11	136017	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2025-08-08	16.95	19.43	-31.20	67409	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2025-08-01	17.00	19.62	-30.08	104256	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2025-07-25	16.75	19.88	-31.60	88404	Downward Expansion	-75	89
2025-07-18	16.90	20.16	-31.72	83357	Downward Expansion	-74	88
2025-07-11	16.85	20.49	-30.64	72416	Downward Expansion	-78	89
2025-07-04	17.20	20.83	-29.21	49707	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2025-06-27	17.44	21.16	-28.91	44835	Downward Expansion	-71	65
2025-06-20	17.25	21.49	-28.60	72305	Downward Expansion	-77	62
2025-06-13	17.74	21.84	-27.29	81707	Downward Expansion	-74	57
2025-06-06	18.38	22.18	-23.89	33784	Downward Expansion	-66	52
2025-05-30	18.53	22.49	-22.83	31732	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2025-05-23	19.03	22.80	-22.52	33914	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2025-05-16	19.22	23.12	-23.01	88937	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-05-09	18.98	23.44	-21.29	64362	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2025-05-02	19.47	23.77	-19.44	56259	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2025-04-25	18.48	24.08	-20.66	68180	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2025-04-18	18.14	24.42	-20.94	109000	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2025-04-11	16.52	24.79	-29.00	350262	Downward Expansion	-95	94
2025-04-04	21.02	25.22	-17.97	62930	Downward Expansion	-75	58
2025-03-28	21.51	25.48	-17.83	51174	Downward Expansion	-70	47
2025-03-21	22.19	25.73	-18.12	73561	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2025-03-14	23.02	26.00	-14.76	87123	Downward Expansion	-41	31
2025-03-07	22.97	26.16	-17.82	51207	Downward Expansion	-44	35
2025-02-28	22.58	26.35	-21.58	121874	Downward Expansion	-51	51
2025-02-21	22.83	26.55	-23.72	186302	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2025-02-14	22.88	26.74	-22.38	142106	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2025-02-07	20.87	26.94	-30.81	83928	Downward Expansion	-71	90
2025-01-24	20.77	27.21	-32.01	53000	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2025-01-17	20.73	27.48	-31.82	322000	Downward Expansion	-91	97
2025-01-10	20.73	27.75	-32.18	281000	Downward Expansion	-98	99
2025-01-03	22.53	28.02	-26.76	330000	Downward Expansion	-98	99
2024-12-27	24.78	28.22	-21.52	91000	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2024-12-20	25.22	28.36	-18.09	208000	Downward Expansion	-95	95
2024-12-13	26.69	28.48	-15.90	133000	Downward Expansion	-83	89
2024-12-06	27.08	28.55	-15.94	131000	Downward Expansion	-77	85
2024-11-29	27.13	28.60	-12.94	74000	Downward Expansion	-79	81
2024-11-22	27.52	28.66	-14.75	131982	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2024-11-15	27.62	28.70	-14.43	36000	Downward Expansion	-72	74
2024-11-08	27.86	28.74	-17.20	55000	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2024-11-01	27.71	28.78	-15.49	66000	Balance	-69	59
2024-10-25	28.06	28.84	-17.14	141000	Balance	-63	44
2024-10-18	28.55	28.87	-16.88	48000	Balance	-25	18
2024-10-11	28.74	28.89	-14.83	41000	Balance	-9	9
2024-10-04	28.84	28.90	-12.86	46000	Balance	-5	6
2024-09-27	28.79	28.93	-15.59	89000	Balance	-2	3
2024-09-20	28.84	28.98	-13.58	56000	Balance	12	8
2024-09-13	28.99	29.02	-12.18	115000	Balance	17	21
2024-09-06	29.52	29.03	-9.78	167000	Balance	19	22
2024-08-30	28.94	29.02	-15.40	81000	Balance	3	8
2024-08-23	28.99	29.03	-15.44	114000	Rotation Up	-17	12
2024-08-16	30.11	29.04	-13.58	397000	Rotation Up	6	3
2024-08-09	27.91	29.01	-17.17	292000	Balance	-70	59
2024-08-02	28.69	29.07	-16.16	81000	Balance	-47	29
2024-07-26	28.45	29.10	-19.28	93000	Balance	-57	28
2024-07-19	28.64	29.14	-21.95	197000	Balance	-41	20
2024-07-12	28.94	29.16	-25.22	246000	Balance	-31	13
2024-07-05	29.08	29.20	-24.31	294000	Balance	-29	14
2024-06-28	28.64	29.23	-24.42	84000	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2024-06-21	28.89	29.28	-25.14	142000	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-06-14	28.89	29.30	-23.26	569000	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2024-06-07	28.64	29.31	-22.22	112000	Downward Expansion	-58	35
2024-05-31	28.84	29.34	-19.77	165000	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2024-05-24	28.89	29.35	-21.64	221000	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2024-05-17	28.64	29.37	-21.78	254000	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2024-05-10	28.64	29.40	-20.32	361000	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2024-05-03	28.89	29.45	-18.83	128000	Downward Expansion	-58	50
2024-04-26	28.89	29.50	-18.62	102000	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2024-04-19	28.84	29.55	-16.92	216000	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2024-04-12	28.84	29.61	-22.22	281000	Balance	-65	56
2024-04-05	29.46	29.69	-19.50	81000	Balance	-50	36
2024-03-29	29.03	29.73	-20.95	150000	Balance	-58	43
2024-03-22	29.22	29.80	-20.60	65000	Balance	-50	23
2024-03-15	29.03	29.89	-19.32	152000	Balance	-43	24
2024-03-08	29.80	29.96	-18.02	215000	Balance	-9	19
2024-03-01	30.09	30.03	-13.96	163000	Balance	-1	10
2024-02-23	30.13	30.12	-13.95	337000	Downward Expansion	-20	15
2024-02-16	29.42	30.20	-15.13	67000	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2024-02-09	29.08	30.32	-14.00	65000	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2024-02-02	29.18	30.44	-13.81	392000	Downward Expansion	-67	53
2024-01-26	29.37	30.56	-13.17	130000	Downward Expansion	-61	42
2024-01-19	29.37	30.70	-11.92	153239	Downward Expansion	-60	40
2024-01-12	29.51	30.82	-10.94	188000	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2024-01-05	29.61	30.94	-11.01	134000	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2023-12-29	29.56	31.07	-13.54	210000	Downward Expansion	-46	30
2023-12-22	29.51	31.19	-12.38	244000	Downward Expansion	-45	27
2023-12-15	29.99	31.32	-11.66	143000	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2023-12-08	29.99	31.42	-10.47	204000	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2023-12-01	30.04	31.53	-10.79	464000	Downward Expansion	-51	43
2023-11-24	29.61	31.64	-11.54	129000	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2023-11-17	29.32	31.76	-12.29	149000	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2023-11-10	29.32	31.83	-9.86	82000	Downward Expansion	-70	75
2023-11-03	29.27	31.91	-9.57	63000	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2023-10-27	29.37	31.97	-7.62	168000	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2023-10-20	29.61	32.02	-8.96	176000	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2023-10-13	30.23	32.04	-9.31	53000	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2023-10-06	30.37	32.03	-7.83	281000	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2023-09-29	30.42	32.05	-7.13	129000	Rotation Down	-72	72
2023-09-22	30.57	32.07	-7.05	357000	Rotation Down	-46	61

Price vs TrendBelow-6.3%

Trend directionFalling-6.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-33.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-35.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+5.0%

Price momentumNegative-15.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.43×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-63 / ±100

+4.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

58 /100

+3.8 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

4528 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance11

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion10

Deceleration46

Rotation Down58

Downward Expansion86

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 3%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 66%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-09-25	Established	-5.1%
Rotation Down	2026-04-24	2026-05-08	New	-0.3%
Balance	2026-03-27	2026-04-17	New	-2.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-03-20	Developing	-8.2%
Rotation Up	2026-01-23	2026-02-06	New	-2.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-01-16	Developing	+8.8%
Balance	2025-10-24	2025-11-14	New	-8.8%
Rotation Up	2025-09-05	2025-10-17	Developing	-6.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-08-29	Extended	-39.0%
Balance	2024-08-30	2024-11-01	Developing	-4.2%
Rotation Up	2024-08-16	2024-08-23	New	-3.7%
Balance	2024-07-05	2024-08-09	Developing	-4.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-04-19	2024-06-28	Developing	-0.7%
Balance	2024-03-01	2024-04-12	Developing	-4.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing71

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution7

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -35.81
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -15.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -60.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 68th percentile130 in cohort

Test 4528 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.38×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.43×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 4528 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 14.92falling

Slow Activity TWD 15.45falling

Trend Reference TWD 15.96-6.3% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 22.58-33.8% close margin

Structural low TWD 14.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +2.4%

Annualized volatility +13.4%

From structural high -33.4%

From structural low +3.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	43	-0.7%-16.8% to +19.1%	+39.5%	+60.5%	-3.5%	+83.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	-2.5%-17.9% to +15.5%	+21.4%	+78.6%	-13.8%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	-4.0%-31.0% to +9.6%	+12.5%	+87.5%	-22.5%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-14.5%-39.2% to +14.2%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-23.7%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

4528 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map