Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

NXTC Stage Analysis

NextCure Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 7.18Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -16−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 12/100directional strength

Maturity 41/100lifecycle context

Confidence 54/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -37.8%USD 11.53 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	7.18	6.59	-31.14	415054	Balance	-16	12
2026-10-02	5.09	6.77	-51.19	262664	Balance	-32	19
2026-09-25	5.08	7.02	-51.16	807567	Balance	-25	15
2026-09-18	6.12	7.27	-39.44	565869	Balance	-5	16
2026-09-11	7.00	7.53	-30.19	309553	Balance	-3	20
2026-09-04	7.82	7.73	-22.40	502616	Balance	9	26
2026-08-28	6.09	7.84	-39.15	508577	Balance	-7	22
2026-08-21	6.29	8.00	-36.92	722151	Balance	-11	20
2026-08-14	8.21	8.18	-19.75	2617435	Downward Expansion	-6	19
2026-08-07	5.84	8.34	-42.09	1716657	Downward Expansion	-35	30
2026-07-31	4.14	8.59	-56.83	2897704	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2026-07-24	4.24	8.90	-55.77	2571116	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2026-07-17	5.99	9.18	-38.91	120004222	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2026-07-10	1.97	9.36	-80.75	374205	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2026-07-03	1.88	9.67	-81.45	414141	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2026-06-26	1.64	10.02	-83.78	612892	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2026-06-19	2.02	10.43	-81.17	578374	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2026-06-12	2.08	10.71	-80.34	784884	Downward Expansion	-88	93
2026-06-05	2.95	10.97	-71.88	1498396	Downward Expansion	-89	85
2026-05-29	6.20	11.17	-44.07	226915	Downward Expansion	-78	70
2026-05-22	7.83	11.39	-27.61	222333	Downward Expansion	-71	58
2026-05-15	9.74	11.43	-8.98	106225	Downward Expansion	-55	42
2026-05-08	9.76	11.51	-8.67	171791	Balance	-57	40
2026-05-01	9.36	11.40	-7.27	208600	Balance	-34	23
2026-04-24	10.52	11.28	6.24	671530	Balance	-25	17
2026-04-17	10.32	11.12	7.14	359708	Balance	-18	25
2026-04-10	11.64	10.97	29.27	336612	Balance	-14	19
2026-04-03	10.72	10.76	26.23	117423	Balance	-15	20
2026-03-27	10.01	10.56	23.74	165765	Balance	-2	13
2026-03-20	9.99	10.40	20.31	148655	Upward Expansion	2	5
2026-03-13	12.68	10.24	50.29	162757	Upward Expansion	48	31
2026-03-06	12.39	9.98	46.17	272099	Upward Expansion	50	34
2026-02-27	12.72	9.73	48.66	231893	Deceleration	50	32
2026-02-20	13.73	9.47	60.61	54723	Deceleration	59	30
2026-02-13	13.10	9.22	56.27	274109	Deceleration	44	21
2026-02-06	11.10	8.95	31.60	167406	Deceleration	35	18
2026-01-30	10.85	8.74	26.23	134120	Upward Expansion	41	27
2026-01-23	11.92	8.55	38.27	78020	Upward Expansion	55	38
2026-01-16	12.91	8.33	50.19	100168	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-01-09	13.37	8.09	54.75	195001	Upward Expansion	62	42
2026-01-02	13.28	7.92	57.62	227242	Upward Expansion	63	41
2025-12-26	12.77	7.67	49.48	73205	Upward Expansion	63	42
2025-12-19	11.38	7.44	35.15	127433	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-12-12	11.14	7.27	32.27	266127	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-12-05	12.34	7.07	42.40	216685	Upward Expansion	66	53
2025-11-28	14.09	6.84	62.85	458254	Upward Expansion	83	59
2025-11-21	10.51	6.55	26.62	145506	Upward Expansion	66	54
2025-11-14	9.88	6.38	13.71	367024	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-11-07	8.96	6.20	0.86	90265	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-10-31	12.60	6.01	34.70	445411	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-10-24	9.20	5.75	-1.38	357056	Upward Expansion	76	87
2025-10-17	11.93	5.64	27.60	828149	Upward Expansion	96	91
2025-10-10	6.65	5.47	-28.35	122466	Balance	63	57
2025-10-03	5.84	5.53	-40.22	17055	Balance	15	18
2025-09-26	5.70	5.63	-42.56	23960	Downward Expansion	-18	12
2025-09-19	5.64	5.75	-44.99	86030	Downward Expansion	-26	12
2025-09-12	5.40	5.85	-47.71	49694	Downward Expansion	-39	20
2025-09-05	4.85	5.98	-53.47	52362	Downward Expansion	-54	28
2025-08-29	5.03	6.12	-52.76	45544	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2025-08-22	5.13	6.27	-53.32	179273	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2025-08-15	5.12	6.43	-55.30	77136	Downward Expansion	-49	26
2025-08-08	4.87	6.58	-58.47	98971	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2025-08-01	4.89	6.73	-58.11	420325	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2025-07-25	6.17	6.90	-49.87	5772603	Downward Expansion	-39	31
2025-07-18	4.99	7.02	-60.21	213169	Downward Expansion	-56	53
2025-07-11	4.74	7.24	-62.81	1034293	Balance	-52	40
2025-07-04	5.23	7.52	-60.17	540897	Balance	-43	21
2025-06-27	5.40	7.80	-59.16	721191	Balance	-28	15
2025-06-20	5.64	8.09	-56.62	3920839	Balance	-23	15
2025-06-13	8.17	8.38	-38.59	1464326	Downward Expansion	-9	14
2025-06-06	5.94	8.63	-56.41	634761	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2025-05-30	5.91	8.95	-56.58	798169	Downward Expansion	-40	30
2025-05-23	6.09	9.28	-55.33	554649	Downward Expansion	-44	36
2025-05-16	5.26	9.63	-63.14	453740	Downward Expansion	-48	44
2025-05-09	5.35	10.01	-60.84	894911	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2025-05-02	5.31	10.40	-62.10	846760	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-04-25	5.52	10.76	-60.09	1280720	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2025-04-18	4.33	11.13	-67.22	1193913	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2025-04-11	3.49	11.53	-74.79	1967561	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2025-04-04	4.68	11.98	-64.67	904420	Downward Expansion	-89	94
2025-03-28	5.99	12.39	-60.45	644465	Downward Expansion	-86	88
2025-03-21	6.84	12.78	-57.10	504376	Downward Expansion	-84	70
2025-03-14	8.27	13.19	-49.12	391890	Downward Expansion	-72	58
2025-03-07	9.00	13.54	-46.67	186761	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2025-02-28	9.35	13.88	-47.19	157420	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2025-02-21	8.67	14.21	-53.44	110266	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2025-02-14	9.09	14.58	-52.93	389192	Downward Expansion	-67	57
2025-02-07	9.12	14.95	-52.01	349680	Downward Expansion	-69	58
2025-01-31	9.66	15.31	-49.67	246241	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2025-01-24	9.88	15.58	-49.69	613203	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2025-01-17	9.47	15.89	-51.48	312057	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2025-01-10	9.59	16.22	-49.82	1053561	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2025-01-03	9.87	16.54	-49.87	1776139	Downward Expansion	-79	87
2024-12-27	9.84	16.77	-50.84	708853	Downward Expansion	-87	87
2024-12-20	11.64	17.06	-41.75	897275	Downward Expansion	-81	80
2024-12-13	12.96	17.29	-36.96	364501	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-12-06	13.68	17.52	-33.23	2534429	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2024-11-29	14.04	17.73	-29.77	499068	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2024-11-22	14.28	17.87	-28.35	265697	Downward Expansion	-71	59
2024-11-15	15.72	17.94	-20.08	453772	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2024-11-08	15.48	18.05	-24.30	86603	Downward Expansion	-65	46
2024-11-01	15.96	18.30	-17.88	80466	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2024-10-25	16.68	18.64	-15.79	259822	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2024-10-18	16.44	18.98	-17.00	79041	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2024-10-11	17.04	19.19	-14.22	160018	Downward Expansion	-57	45
2024-10-04	16.20	19.20	-17.71	148385	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2024-09-27	16.56	19.32	-16.08	77604	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2024-09-20	16.56	19.49	-15.59	443149	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2024-09-13	16.80	19.52	-13.55	115691	Balance	-60	52
2024-09-06	17.04	19.55	-7.52	114684	Balance	-59	45
2024-08-30	17.64	19.53	-10.16	162314	Balance	-43	28
2024-08-23	19.32	19.45	-2.75	82837	Balance	-29	13
2024-08-16	18.72	19.31	-5.26	94222	Balance	-4	3
2024-08-09	19.20	19.14	1.85	264677	Balance	28	13
2024-08-02	19.20	18.96	1.54	139481	Balance	21	13
2024-07-26	19.68	18.80	0.31	176123	Balance	23	12
2024-07-19	20.28	18.60	0.20	252665	Balance	35	16
2024-07-12	19.80	18.39	-6.69	276036	Balance	28	13
2024-07-05	17.88	18.17	-16.57	411885	Balance	7	5
2024-06-28	19.08	18.12	-8.74	350114	Deceleration	20	10
2024-06-21	19.44	17.96	-7.85	488157	Deceleration	10	8
2024-06-14	19.20	17.82	-9.32	274492	Deceleration	9	10
2024-06-07	16.68	17.69	-18.94	295499	Deceleration	-0	7
2024-05-31	18.48	17.58	-8.57	643150	Deceleration	9	6
2024-05-24	18.60	17.43	-10.13	290552	Deceleration	12	9
2024-05-17	20.04	17.24	-2.64	408260	Deceleration	22	18
2024-05-10	19.80	17.09	-2.52	462029	Deceleration	23	22
2024-05-03	18.36	16.93	-8.98	1242511	Deceleration	27	21
2024-04-26	16.20	16.81	-19.43	580976	Upward Expansion	27	17
2024-04-19	19.20	16.78	-1.51	428550	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-04-12	23.04	16.68	11.25	683298	Upward Expansion	64	68
2024-04-05	26.16	16.47	25.46	1498217	Upward Expansion	79	76
2024-03-29	26.76	16.17	27.44	1810392	Upward Expansion	89	79
2024-03-22	22.80	15.84	8.21	5135470	Upward Expansion	84	78
2024-03-15	17.40	15.70	-15.27	362719	Upward Expansion	64	69
2024-03-08	19.80	15.74	-5.59	4229621	Rotation Up	71	77
2024-03-01	21.48	15.78	0.21	1252071	Rotation Up	62	74
2024-02-23	17.64	15.74	-16.45	811156	Rotation Up	31	51
2024-02-16	17.52	15.83	-16.67	214853	Balance	32	37
2024-02-09	16.56	15.97	-23.09	464875	Balance	3	11
2024-02-02	15.12	16.12	-29.31	364293	Downward Expansion	-28	13
2024-01-26	15.24	16.34	-28.70	222613	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2024-01-19	13.56	16.55	-36.94	155077	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2024-01-12	13.92	16.74	-34.46	210900	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2024-01-05	14.40	16.93	-30.91	306514	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2023-12-29	13.68	17.12	-37.25	220162	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2023-12-22	13.80	17.36	-37.19	461794	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2023-12-15	13.32	17.58	-39.27	2229591	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2023-12-08	16.20	17.86	-24.28	501269	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2023-12-01	14.40	18.01	-32.70	223698	Downward Expansion	-48	35
2023-11-24	15.12	18.16	-29.78	83444	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2023-11-17	15.36	18.26	-28.58	342419	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2023-11-10	13.32	18.37	-37.32	136810	Downward Expansion	-72	60
2023-11-03	14.16	18.52	-32.33	266274	Downward Expansion	-66	58
2023-10-27	12.78	18.65	-36.09	869345	Downward Expansion	-85	76
2023-10-20	15.48	18.82	-26.35	303633	Downward Expansion	-66	75

Price vs TrendAbove+8.9%

Trend directionFalling-23.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-37.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+46.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-31.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+49.6%

Price momentumNegative-38.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led14.97×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-16 / ±100

-13.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

12 /100

-8.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NXTC Directional State ↗ NXTC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance51

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration60

Rotation Down40

Downward Expansion60

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 8%Downward Expansion 51%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-08-21	2026-10-09	Developing	+14.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-08-14	Established	-15.7%
Balance	2026-03-27	2026-05-08	Developing	-2.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	-19.4%
Deceleration	2026-02-06	2026-02-27	New	+14.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-17	2026-01-30	Established	-9.1%
Balance	2025-10-03	2025-10-10	New	+13.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-09-26	Developing	+14.2%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-07-11	New	-16.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-20	2025-06-13	Extended	-50.7%
Balance	2024-07-05	2024-09-13	Developing	-6.0%
Deceleration	2024-05-03	2024-06-28	Developing	+3.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-15	2024-04-26	Developing	-6.9%
Rotation Up	2024-02-23	2024-03-08	New	+12.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing68

Stage 2 · Advancing25

Stage 3 · Distribution5

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 70/100
Current Relative Strength: -31.14
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -38.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -61.3%
Healthcare regime cohort: 24th percentile116 in cohort

Test NXTC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.06×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume14.97×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NXTC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 6.05falling

Slow Activity USD 5.79falling

Trend Reference USD 6.59+8.9% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 11.53-37.8% close margin

Structural low USD 1.55shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +32.5%

Annualized volatility +235.4%

From structural high -54.4%

From structural low +363.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-4.8%-26.3% to +115.8%	+37.5%	+37.5%	-9.6%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-9.4%-83.6% to +127.4%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-13.9%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-42.6%-64.8% to +101.8%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-52.2%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-66.6%-70.8% to -4.1%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-62.2%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NXTC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map