Weekly structural research · TAI · Technology

3563 Stage Analysis

Machvision Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close TWD 760.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 0−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 11/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 51/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +64.4%TWD 462.26 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	760.00	747.52	-11.00	7491491	Balance	-0	11
2026-09-25	769.00	742.48	-9.50	4826179	Downward Expansion	-13	11
2026-09-18	671.00	735.51	-20.04	1324265	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2026-09-11	659.00	729.02	-20.49	1736947	Balance	-41	22
2026-09-04	693.00	723.03	-17.93	2799798	Balance	-8	10
2026-08-28	697.00	715.35	-18.01	249635	Rotation Down	-13	14
2026-08-21	677.00	708.26	-18.83	155121	Rotation Down	-27	26
2026-08-14	687.00	701.66	-19.00	367242	Rotation Down	-30	33
2026-08-07	655.00	695.42	-20.36	443054	Rotation Down	-31	47
2026-07-31	614.00	690.58	-23.91	559343	Deceleration	-34	47
2026-07-24	667.00	686.48	-18.91	650205	Deceleration	-23	24
2026-07-17	631.00	681.08	-22.04	953303	Deceleration	-15	30
2026-07-10	721.00	677.30	-16.80	0	Deceleration	4	16
2026-07-03	787.00	668.74	-12.52	6639601	Deceleration	7	20
2026-06-26	663.00	659.40	-23.18	2684380	Deceleration	-7	25
2026-06-19	702.29	651.38	-22.73	2272662	Deceleration	8	18
2026-06-12	693.45	642.78	-20.54	3803112	Deceleration	26	19
2026-06-05	772.03	635.92	-14.04	3403712	Deceleration	42	30
2026-05-29	811.32	628.58	-9.70	8932983	Upward Expansion	46	34
2026-05-22	880.07	619.68	3.05	16484348	Upward Expansion	55	43
2026-05-15	859.44	608.11	3.01	9186478	Upward Expansion	63	50
2026-05-08	787.74	596.23	-6.52	9054895	Upward Expansion	64	58
2026-05-01	857.48	586.99	8.66	6294008	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-04-24	892.84	575.21	13.38	13534666	Upward Expansion	71	79
2026-04-17	939.99	563.19	26.71	13341202	Upward Expansion	87	94
2026-04-10	905.61	551.00	27.59	13297547	Upward Expansion	91	96
2026-04-03	761.22	540.65	16.96	16052413	Upward Expansion	74	90
2026-03-27	814.26	536.12	23.09	17425206	Upward Expansion	92	96
2026-03-20	711.13	524.73	6.12	15369559	Upward Expansion	86	90
2026-03-13	685.59	516.22	2.37	14262521	Downward Expansion	85	81
2026-03-06	608.98	508.80	-9.82	23631050	Downward Expansion	37	46
2026-02-27	559.87	504.81	-21.36	6208436	Downward Expansion	3	5
2026-02-13	476.38	502.48	-29.58	2151099	Downward Expansion	-48	36
2026-02-06	479.32	503.59	-25.23	6348039	Balance	-47	35
2026-01-30	462.63	504.31	-28.49	3987475	Balance	-53	33
2026-01-23	484.24	505.72	-24.99	3202699	Balance	-44	20
2026-01-16	478.83	507.35	-24.45	3277259	Balance	-35	16
2026-01-09	499.95	509.88	-18.18	6471153	Balance	-26	13
2026-01-02	509.77	511.89	-13.87	7774938	Balance	-24	16
2025-12-26	491.11	512.63	-14.63	3469450	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2025-12-19	504.86	514.25	-9.48	6091532	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2025-12-12	517.63	515.06	-8.79	7333985	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2025-12-05	464.10	515.21	-17.58	3688671	Downward Expansion	-58	63
2025-11-28	506.83	513.89	-8.81	5151377	Balance	-54	58
2025-11-21	422.36	510.76	-20.45	3782307	Balance	-42	53
2025-11-14	444.46	509.71	-19.20	5654457	Balance	-35	25
2025-11-07	487.67	507.36	-12.13	6896598	Balance	15	8
2025-10-31	551.87	503.78	-2.41	6576851	Balance	48	23
2025-10-24	544.03	501.40	-0.90	3024161	Balance	32	16
2025-10-17	533.25	499.96	-1.55	4435584	Balance	25	19
2025-10-10	502.86	500.37	-6.82	1766407	Balance	17	18
2025-10-03	510.70	501.92	-3.24	2318005	Upward Expansion	31	14
2025-09-26	503.84	502.24	0.25	3261013	Upward Expansion	46	42
2025-09-19	532.27	499.55	6.33	5210415	Upward Expansion	58	64
2025-09-12	574.42	495.36	15.70	6915065	Upward Expansion	59	66
2025-09-05	595.00	488.75	25.63	12914160	Deceleration	68	62
2025-08-29	625.39	481.08	34.62	20032860	Deceleration	59	30
2025-08-22	472.47	472.39	4.75	7134255	Deceleration	-14	21
2025-08-15	455.81	467.59	-0.76	3148786	Deceleration	-4	19
2025-08-08	463.16	463.79	2.67	5028299	Deceleration	11	15
2025-08-01	489.14	460.69	11.75	6929532	Deceleration	27	19
2025-07-25	490.12	457.00	13.01	5010465	Deceleration	32	22
2025-07-18	509.72	453.25	18.10	4011706	Upward Expansion	38	20
2025-07-11	500.90	449.80	19.98	6134791	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-07-04	504.82	447.23	22.71	4489530	Upward Expansion	58	41
2025-06-27	533.25	442.51	30.22	6646028	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-06-20	554.81	437.45	39.86	9930696	Upward Expansion	68	72
2025-06-13	560.16	430.72	42.19	13191526	Upward Expansion	72	78
2025-06-06	531.96	424.53	38.97	11346891	Upward Expansion	65	74
2025-05-30	539.74	418.60	44.27	10701260	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-05-23	529.04	412.16	40.72	7679524	Deceleration	65	44
2025-05-16	522.23	405.90	38.65	14877964	Deceleration	60	27
2025-05-09	424.49	400.49	18.43	12667244	Deceleration	6	18
2025-05-02	412.82	398.37	15.86	12095309	Deceleration	13	28
2025-04-25	390.94	396.11	14.59	10218826	Deceleration	12	26
2025-04-18	373.93	394.69	12.19	8680421	Upward Expansion	11	20
2025-04-11	380.25	394.22	13.33	6091827	Upward Expansion	30	28
2025-04-04	480.41	392.00	31.41	6652789	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-03-28	500.84	387.62	35.56	4229670	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-03-21	545.57	382.66	44.52	7379866	Upward Expansion	85	94
2025-03-14	549.46	375.23	48.74	18347591	Upward Expansion	93	96
2025-03-07	520.29	366.82	38.72	13535400	Upward Expansion	91	86
2025-02-28	423.04	359.50	11.39	5184265	Balance	69	59
2025-02-21	406.50	356.39	4.27	3841853	Balance	51	30
2025-02-14	376.36	354.69	-0.96	2414908	Balance	20	12
2025-02-07	364.69	355.05	-5.28	1636600	Balance	-10	17
2025-01-24	364.69	355.94	-5.39	1284923	Balance	-11	19
2025-01-17	328.70	356.52	-13.17	1697770	Balance	-15	22
2025-01-10	341.83	358.18	-8.91	2077333	Balance	14	15
2025-01-03	370.04	359.98	-0.55	2202537	Upward Expansion	48	26
2024-12-27	378.30	359.48	0.65	1488966	Upward Expansion	55	52
2024-12-20	377.82	358.82	4.51	3147984	Upward Expansion	56	56
2024-12-13	406.02	358.33	10.50	6310827	Balance	67	68
2024-12-06	424.01	357.67	15.34	9049961	Balance	51	54
2024-11-29	363.23	356.30	3.73	2515517	Balance	23	30
2024-11-22	381.22	358.01	6.51	3341211	Balance	24	31
2024-11-15	353.02	359.57	0.02	1783095	Balance	-10	13
2024-11-08	374.41	361.20	3.00	4717675	Balance	3	9
2024-11-01	353.99	361.90	1.38	2044032	Balance	-12	6
2024-10-25	346.70	362.73	-2.51	1459129	Balance	-15	10
2024-10-18	341.35	364.26	-4.08	1538002	Balance	-16	11
2024-10-11	359.82	364.83	4.21	1923373	Balance	-9	11
2024-10-04	360.80	362.76	7.96	906191	Balance	-20	16
2024-09-27	345.24	360.29	1.59	1150739	Balance	-31	15
2024-09-20	348.15	358.73	5.96	1813744	Balance	-31	17
2024-09-13	359.82	357.18	12.07	2502751	Deceleration	-31	18
2024-09-06	313.63	355.33	-0.20	1251463	Deceleration	-25	18
2024-08-30	349.13	354.23	7.36	1765095	Rotation Down	-26	24
2024-08-23	352.04	351.54	9.40	2024686	Rotation Down	-32	52
2024-08-16	322.53	348.12	-0.01	1404158	Rotation Down	-34	61
2024-08-09	297.31	344.34	-3.64	3906488	Rotation Down	-36	60
2024-08-02	300.70	341.08	-3.00	4157094	Balance	-36	45
2024-07-26	329.80	337.63	4.37	2540158	Balance	-3	9
2024-07-19	355.51	333.61	9.23	2981499	Upward Expansion	20	14
2024-07-12	387.03	328.59	14.18	4430069	Upward Expansion	41	27
2024-07-05	391.40	322.70	17.71	5644053	Deceleration	45	31
2024-06-28	382.18	316.58	18.04	3198025	Deceleration	49	28
2024-06-21	378.30	310.24	16.28	2713109	Deceleration	35	20
2024-06-14	395.81	303.99	26.37	4811437	Deceleration	43	23
2024-06-07	355.13	297.13	17.60	2405630	Deceleration	34	24
2024-05-31	358.48	291.10	23.37	4974685	Deceleration	40	25
2024-05-24	363.26	284.93	23.68	6914513	Upward Expansion	47	38
2024-05-17	386.23	278.60	34.34	3678871	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-05-10	382.88	271.54	37.92	7267893	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-05-03	414.47	264.88	53.61	10704978	Upward Expansion	71	67
2024-04-26	427.87	257.27	62.24	10663201	Upward Expansion	82	72
2024-04-19	402.03	249.50	59.47	13598402	Upward Expansion	76	81
2024-04-12	395.33	242.61	49.82	6552691	Upward Expansion	80	89
2024-04-05	379.06	235.98	48.30	4048914	Upward Expansion	81	83
2024-03-29	392.46	229.76	55.63	12949672	Upward Expansion	94	76
2024-03-22	358.48	223.05	44.44	14183680	Upward Expansion	93	75
2024-03-15	297.69	217.27	24.49	7035153	Upward Expansion	69	66
2024-03-08	286.68	213.47	20.02	7665736	Upward Expansion	68	74
2024-03-01	298.65	210.30	31.44	4353670	Upward Expansion	73	90
2024-02-23	301.52	206.96	34.16	9521253	Upward Expansion	82	94
2024-02-16	304.39	203.90	38.77	5709041	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-02-09	280.46	200.84	32.83	2186037	Upward Expansion	91	96
2024-02-02	268.50	199.08	28.80	7815304	Upward Expansion	92	91
2024-01-26	249.35	197.68	21.19	8739502	Rotation Up	87	63
2024-01-19	209.15	196.77	4.35	2057092	Rotation Up	37	26
2024-01-12	199.58	196.96	1.06	1073602	Rotation Up	27	24
2024-01-05	197.19	197.36	0.21	817884	Rotation Up	24	39
2023-12-29	209.15	197.23	4.32	1241821	Rotation Up	33	56
2023-12-22	204.84	196.70	4.69	1531972	Rotation Up	27	49
2023-12-15	210.59	196.40	7.68	2385718	Rotation Up	38	42
2023-12-08	207.71	195.85	8.59	3026406	Downward Expansion	16	28
2023-12-01	191.92	194.90	0.55	669447	Downward Expansion	-27	22
2023-11-24	190.96	194.66	1.34	1357168	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2023-11-17	190.01	194.03	1.74	1508286	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2023-11-10	174.21	193.37	-3.31	1082609	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2023-11-03	173.26	193.37	-2.53	577778	Rotation Down	-72	82
2023-10-27	173.26	193.53	0.11	345954	Rotation Down	-48	69
2023-10-20	174.69	193.66	-0.52	987355	Deceleration	-49	60
2023-10-13	182.83	193.95	2.42	482173	Deceleration	-37	29
2023-10-06	186.18	193.60	6.38	1137449	Deceleration	-11	10
2023-09-29	194.79	192.90	13.00	194065	Deceleration	20	12

Price vs TrendAbove+1.7%

Trend directionRising+8.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+64.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-22.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.5%

Price momentumNegative-0.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.57×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-0 / ±100

+7.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

11 /100

+1.5 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

3563 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance58

Rotation Up35

Upward Expansion28

Deceleration41

Rotation Down21

Downward Expansion50

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 25%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 33%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-02	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	+14.6%
Balance	2026-09-04	2026-09-11	New	-4.9%
Rotation Down	2026-08-07	2026-08-28	New	+6.4%
Deceleration	2026-06-05	2026-07-31	Developing	-20.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-05-29	Developing	+14.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-03-13	New	+43.9%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-02-06	Developing	-6.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-05	2025-12-26	New	+5.8%
Balance	2025-10-10	2025-11-28	Developing	+0.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-10-03	New	-11.1%
Deceleration	2025-07-25	2025-09-05	Developing	+21.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-07-18	Developing	-5.6%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-23	Developing	+35.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing25

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution63

Stage 4 · Declining42

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 19/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.00
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -0.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -49.0%
Technology regime cohort: 1th percentile139 in cohort

Test 3563 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.28×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 3563 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 726.67rising

Slow Activity TWD 720.48falling

Trend Reference TWD 747.52+1.7% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 462.26+64.4% close margin

Structural low TWD 592.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.6%

Annualized volatility +58.2%

From structural high -22.4%

From structural low +84.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+3.4%-15.8% to +46.0%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+5.5%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+5.2%-23.7% to +88.0%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+4.4%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+34.1%-36.4% to +86.9%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+34.5%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	2	+12.3%-23.6% to +48.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+17.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

3563 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map