Weekly structural research · SHZ · Basic Materials

002578 Stage Analysis

Fujian Minfa Aluminium Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close CNY 4.08Tenure DevelopingBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 29−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 52/100directional strength

Maturity 17/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +18.5%CNY 3.44 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	4.08	3.75	9.07	81493800	Rotation Up	29	52
2026-09-18	3.94	3.77	3.17	86212300	Rotation Up	27	54
2026-09-11	3.98	3.78	5.62	176801000	Rotation Up	26	46
2026-09-04	4.18	3.79	10.75	225243944	Rotation Up	40	50
2026-08-28	4.33	3.81	11.49	191402176	Rotation Up	15	36
2026-08-21	3.73	3.82	-4.79	34586500	Downward Expansion	-21	26
2026-08-14	3.41	3.84	-14.77	25673100	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2026-08-07	3.39	3.88	-15.49	54524590	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2026-07-31	2.96	3.91	-22.62	20149005	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-07-24	2.76	3.97	-29.36	25946900	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2026-07-17	2.84	4.03	-27.51	28686800	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2026-07-10	3.03	4.09	-30.10	33213300	Downward Expansion	-82	92
2026-07-03	3.17	4.15	-30.00	27032500	Downward Expansion	-80	87
2026-06-26	3.20	4.18	-30.73	25740700	Downward Expansion	-80	78
2026-06-19	3.52	4.20	-25.51	137417170	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2026-06-12	3.65	4.25	-17.82	40217600	Balance	-61	40
2026-06-05	3.90	4.26	-14.62	41110600	Balance	-50	26
2026-05-29	4.11	4.26	-11.86	245189292	Balance	-32	15
2026-05-22	4.03	4.24	-13.94	152743755	Balance	-33	15
2026-05-15	3.89	4.23	-16.98	116381700	Balance	-42	20
2026-05-08	4.24	4.21	-9.83	82592850	Balance	-5	6
2026-05-01	4.16	4.18	-9.00	215928876	Rotation Down	-11	10
2026-04-24	3.85	4.15	-14.96	156700358	Rotation Down	-30	23
2026-04-17	4.07	4.13	-9.98	187823968	Rotation Down	-26	28
2026-04-10	4.03	4.12	-7.32	319340629	Rotation Down	-20	41
2026-04-03	3.82	4.10	-6.06	521711431	Rotation Down	-24	44
2026-03-27	3.87	4.08	-7.91	149889500	Balance	-25	35
2026-03-20	3.74	4.07	-11.86	165158006	Balance	-9	15
2026-03-13	4.24	4.06	-3.21	187163163	Balance	16	9
2026-03-06	4.45	4.04	2.27	217877000	Upward Expansion	33	15
2026-02-27	4.69	4.01	5.51	162389306	Upward Expansion	43	21
2026-02-13	4.15	3.97	-3.78	127271300	Upward Expansion	30	15
2026-02-06	4.37	3.94	2.77	286191280	Upward Expansion	36	20
2026-01-30	4.61	3.91	6.26	643520012	Upward Expansion	41	24
2026-01-23	4.67	3.87	6.10	230151200	Upward Expansion	54	29
2026-01-16	4.32	3.83	-0.61	287251600	Upward Expansion	42	27
2026-01-09	4.56	3.79	5.73	348605500	Upward Expansion	56	37
2026-01-02	4.49	3.75	8.88	250446536	Upward Expansion	57	40
2025-12-26	4.80	3.70	16.02	463136400	Upward Expansion	67	54
2025-12-19	4.53	3.65	13.77	419470100	Upward Expansion	61	45
2025-12-12	4.47	3.60	11.49	801102036	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-12-05	4.96	3.56	24.86	679041091	Upward Expansion	82	67
2025-11-28	4.04	3.49	3.34	346879410	Upward Expansion	60	59
2025-11-21	3.73	3.46	-1.19	718760626	Upward Expansion	62	66
2025-11-14	5.00	3.43	25.63	970236848	Upward Expansion	95	90
2025-11-07	4.11	3.36	2.40	714924968	Upward Expansion	81	75
2025-10-31	3.69	3.32	-7.82	539668338	Upward Expansion	59	56
2025-10-24	3.72	3.30	-6.58	150785968	Deceleration	64	45
2025-10-17	3.51	3.29	-7.68	149665826	Deceleration	37	16
2025-10-10	3.47	3.29	-13.26	55169306	Deceleration	21	15
2025-10-03	3.33	3.29	-17.90	50556600	Deceleration	13	11
2025-09-26	3.22	3.29	-18.92	99202918	Deceleration	15	11
2025-09-19	3.37	3.28	-14.51	138275112	Deceleration	35	17
2025-09-12	3.57	3.28	-8.70	118033891	Deceleration	50	26
2025-09-05	3.40	3.26	-10.89	137016380	Upward Expansion	40	23
2025-08-29	3.35	3.25	-13.07	141917070	Upward Expansion	46	32
2025-08-22	3.53	3.24	-4.66	96566200	Upward Expansion	61	44
2025-08-15	3.55	3.22	0.20	87208804	Upward Expansion	66	51
2025-08-08	3.55	3.23	4.75	74473800	Upward Expansion	69	56
2025-08-01	3.41	3.21	1.93	114686400	Upward Expansion	62	63
2025-07-25	3.56	3.19	4.76	249574950	Upward Expansion	74	74
2025-07-18	3.41	3.17	2.85	81132400	Upward Expansion	64	69
2025-07-11	3.47	3.17	6.96	81213606	Rotation Up	73	68
2025-07-04	3.36	3.17	5.52	94709500	Rotation Up	34	39
2025-06-27	3.38	3.18	7.58	94414404	Balance	26	29
2025-06-20	3.11	3.17	2.86	66949300	Balance	6	12
2025-06-13	3.29	3.17	7.67	86675204	Balance	9	16
2025-06-06	3.26	3.17	6.25	60980300	Balance	-12	14
2025-05-30	3.14	3.17	3.92	84470924	Balance	-28	16
2025-05-23	3.11	3.17	1.94	106741300	Balance	-35	17
2025-05-16	3.10	3.16	1.06	75517668	Rotation Down	-49	29
2025-05-09	3.07	3.15	0.47	76879400	Rotation Down	-54	56
2025-05-02	2.93	3.14	-2.05	47458850	Rotation Down	-30	51
2025-04-25	2.96	3.15	-1.34	86778400	Balance	-28	38
2025-04-18	2.88	3.14	-2.81	100961500	Balance	-29	23
2025-04-11	2.77	3.13	-7.21	199202315	Upward Expansion	8	6
2025-04-04	3.27	3.12	3.25	286158098	Upward Expansion	52	44
2025-03-28	3.51	3.09	7.79	203541586	Deceleration	64	57
2025-03-21	3.34	3.06	1.73	76527480	Deceleration	52	43
2025-03-14	3.39	3.03	0.39	132776774	Deceleration	55	36
2025-03-07	3.36	3.00	0.61	147590445	Deceleration	42	21
2025-02-28	3.14	2.97	-3.98	107033802	Deceleration	16	7
2025-02-21	3.11	2.96	-8.23	91339747	Deceleration	15	11
2025-02-14	3.10	2.94	-6.68	114913604	Deceleration	15	11
2025-02-07	3.13	2.92	-4.16	92929462	Deceleration	19	15
2025-01-31	2.99	2.90	-4.98	42217600	Deceleration	22	12
2025-01-24	3.08	2.89	-4.10	500321519	Deceleration	29	16
2025-01-17	3.64	2.88	14.00	119366249	Deceleration	57	28
2025-01-10	2.89	2.85	-6.66	74791900	Deceleration	18	22
2025-01-03	2.88	2.84	-8.71	71216372	Upward Expansion	31	22
2024-12-27	3.15	2.84	-8.25	85634668	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-12-20	3.33	2.83	-3.56	81528106	Upward Expansion	62	63
2024-12-13	3.47	2.82	-0.59	82641600	Upward Expansion	73	72
2024-12-06	3.48	2.81	-1.34	85342306	Upward Expansion	79	70
2024-11-29	3.30	2.80	-5.20	76211204	Upward Expansion	72	67
2024-11-22	3.14	2.79	-8.68	82453434	Rotation Up	63	67
2024-11-15	3.12	2.79	-12.30	99442800	Rotation Up	36	62
2024-11-08	3.28	2.78	-11.61	127765106	Rotation Up	57	71
2024-11-01	3.12	2.79	-10.66	133354352	Rotation Up	43	62
2024-10-25	2.96	2.81	-16.91	80443762	Rotation Up	33	49
2024-10-18	2.83	2.82	-18.93	82044306	Rotation Up	20	34
2024-10-11	2.78	2.83	-18.39	120650121	Rotation Up	-5	25
2024-10-04	3.02	2.85	-15.69	42339600	Rotation Up	15	22
2024-09-27	2.78	2.85	-14.49	76012343	Downward Expansion	-29	25
2024-09-20	2.49	2.85	-10.15	29989952	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2024-09-13	2.41	2.86	-12.30	30182300	Downward Expansion	-69	74
2024-09-06	2.40	2.86	-14.49	45258300	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2024-08-30	2.55	2.88	-11.79	42302114	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2024-08-23	2.45	2.91	-13.73	32495201	Downward Expansion	-71	53
2024-08-16	2.56	2.95	-11.87	32352604	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-08-09	2.60	3.00	-11.15	40372330	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2024-08-02	2.62	3.05	-12.30	36399150	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2024-07-26	2.52	3.11	-16.23	45185196	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2024-07-19	2.56	3.15	-17.99	52515422	Downward Expansion	-70	64
2024-07-12	2.73	3.19	-12.31	60973700	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2024-07-05	2.66	3.22	-13.10	49540400	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2024-06-28	2.63	3.25	-15.61	48004866	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-06-21	2.67	3.29	-16.46	45279662	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2024-06-14	2.72	3.33	-16.77	46086424	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2024-06-07	2.80	3.36	-14.52	106837294	Downward Expansion	-63	43
2024-05-31	3.01	3.39	-9.44	144914259	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-05-24	3.02	3.41	-9.80	291683724	Downward Expansion	-54	40
2024-05-17	3.14	3.43	-8.77	76992206	Downward Expansion	-39	37
2024-05-10	3.16	3.44	-8.46	98656229	Balance	-38	31
2024-05-03	3.04	3.46	-10.90	42534400	Balance	-50	28
2024-04-26	3.03	3.48	-10.10	122730829	Balance	-39	19
2024-04-19	3.02	3.50	-8.74	236725081	Balance	-35	21
2024-04-12	3.55	3.53	7.92	414868114	Balance	-15	20
2024-04-05	3.75	3.53	10.32	166436923	Downward Expansion	-11	16
2024-03-29	3.21	3.52	-3.73	118082703	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2024-03-22	3.17	3.54	-6.66	133253360	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2024-03-15	3.17	3.56	-7.29	133502914	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2024-03-08	2.99	3.58	-10.69	137070896	Downward Expansion	-62	67
2024-03-01	2.88	3.61	-14.83	204829162	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2024-02-23	2.89	3.63	-11.42	168638740	Downward Expansion	-64	76
2024-02-09	2.43	3.66	-23.48	187865423	Downward Expansion	-85	77
2024-02-02	2.83	3.70	-3.20	113958217	Upward Expansion	-66	43
2024-01-26	3.58	3.73	12.40	142685982	Upward Expansion	18	10
2024-01-19	3.63	3.72	13.84	196528420	Upward Expansion	40	41
2024-01-12	4.08	3.72	25.31	335752995	Upward Expansion	56	62
2024-01-05	3.97	3.70	20.80	689602463	Upward Expansion	51	55
2023-12-29	4.42	3.69	28.92	188869784	Upward Expansion	81	66
2023-12-22	3.80	3.67	15.14	80970624	Balance	52	20
2023-12-15	3.66	3.66	8.73	46523412	Balance	27	10
2023-12-08	3.62	3.66	5.51	49507112	Balance	37	24
2023-12-01	3.73	3.67	6.62	40638619	Balance	50	36
2023-11-24	3.75	3.67	5.82	38718228	Balance	50	32
2023-11-17	3.82	3.67	6.43	42212123	Balance	22	18
2023-11-10	3.68	3.68	2.36	45527008	Balance	-39	18
2023-11-03	3.69	3.69	3.88	49543308	Balance	-42	34
2023-10-27	3.64	3.71	3.31	38437606	Balance	-48	44
2023-10-20	3.46	3.72	0.16	25967521	Balance	-65	53
2023-10-13	3.57	3.75	-1.87	26740874	Balance	-52	24
2023-09-29	3.63	3.77	-0.79	19367100	Balance	-25	10
2023-09-22	3.72	3.79	0.82	28973600	Balance	-15	9
2023-09-15	3.77	3.82	2.36	50356536	Balance	-24	14

Price vs TrendAbove+8.7%

Trend directionFalling-7.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+18.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+25.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+9.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+39.8%

Price momentumPositive+5.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.68×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

29 / ±100

+13.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

52 /100

+16.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

002578 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance28

Rotation Up68

Upward Expansion52

Deceleration22

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion25

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-15 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 23%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-5.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-08-21	Developing	+6.0%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-06-12	Developing	-13.9%
Rotation Down	2026-04-03	2026-05-01	Developing	+8.9%
Balance	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	New	-8.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2026-03-06	Established	+20.6%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-10-24	Developing	+4.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-09-05	Developing	-0.3%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-07-11	New	+3.3%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-27	Developing	+8.7%
Rotation Down	2025-05-02	2025-05-16	New	+5.8%
Balance	2025-04-18	2025-04-25	New	+2.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-04-11	New	-15.3%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-03-28	Developing	+21.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution32

Stage 4 · Declining42

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 71/100
Current Relative Strength: 9.07
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +5.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +8.6%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 70th percentile43 in cohort

Test 002578 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.92×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.68×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 002578 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 4.05rising

Slow Activity CNY 3.67rising

Trend Reference CNY 3.75+8.7% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 3.44+18.5% close margin

Structural low CNY 2.76shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +7.6%

Annualized volatility +45.8%

From structural high -25.3%

From structural low +47.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+1.5%-7.7% to +5.8%	+60.0%	+60.0%	-1.2%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-0.9%-4.6% to +10.1%	+33.3%	+33.3%	+1.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+16.0%+8.3% to +33.6%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+9.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+17.8%+10.3% to +25.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+11.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

002578 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map