Weekly structural research ยท NSI ยท Real Estate

ARKADE Stage Analysis

ARKADE DEVELOPERS LIMITED

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close INR 118.69Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^NSEI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction -7โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 23/100directional strength
Maturity 55/100lifecycle context
Confidence 91/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -20.0%INR 148.32 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 106 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-02118.69120.690.42499271Deceleration-723
2026-09-25125.48120.402.28872969Deceleration522
2026-09-18118.85119.97-4.49936483Deceleration123
2026-09-11122.03119.97-2.87857237Deceleration1627
2026-09-04125.22119.94-3.091266181Deceleration3631
2026-08-28127.38119.88-3.25140894Upward Expansion4840
2026-08-21130.98119.44-1.46371624Upward Expansion6357
2026-08-14133.34118.79-0.84492099Upward Expansion6778
2026-08-07140.02118.532.49232077Upward Expansion7389
2026-07-31141.19118.193.47658691Upward Expansion8292
2026-07-24135.61118.061.35398950Rotation Up7487
2026-07-17139.66118.101.18619743Rotation Up6281
2026-07-10132.56118.05-4.271119575Rotation Up5367
2026-07-03123.97118.40-11.44197606Balance2633
2026-06-26123.12119.70-11.980Balance25
2026-06-19114.25121.08-18.84124332Balance-3219
2026-06-12114.30122.83-18.25244953Balance-3221
2026-06-05112.63124.60-19.31173997Balance-3423
2026-05-29113.91126.44-19.793019910Balance-1811
2026-05-22113.16128.46-21.54608551Balance-1815
2026-05-15114.24130.23-21.081252044Balance-1418
2026-05-08123.66131.97-16.902846594Downward Expansion-519
2026-05-01117.86133.62-20.51787224Downward Expansion-3329
2026-04-24116.09135.39-21.761186089Downward Expansion-4127
2026-04-17117.05137.19-23.052892457Downward Expansion-4941
2026-04-10115.04139.32-23.934160645Downward Expansion-6457
2026-04-03102.67141.49-28.601651565Downward Expansion-6976
2026-03-2799.92โ€”โ€”2719208Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-20103.22โ€”โ€”3348823Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-13104.48โ€”โ€”2815230Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-06110.15โ€”โ€”1140707Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-27112.64โ€”โ€”1193008Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-20118.65โ€”โ€”1317507Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-13121.27โ€”โ€”1097409Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-06123.39โ€”โ€”1357892Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-30114.23โ€”โ€”4136695Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-23111.41โ€”โ€”2196348Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-16125.44โ€”โ€”1205802Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-09129.98โ€”โ€”1421095Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-02137.21โ€”โ€”1595804Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-26136.97โ€”โ€”1405901Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-19137.93โ€”โ€”3815793Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-12143.15โ€”โ€”14385341Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-05163.11โ€”โ€”1908043Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-28164.43โ€”โ€”1979295Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-21166.68โ€”โ€”1481985Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-14167.41โ€”โ€”1421219Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-07167.97โ€”โ€”982442Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-31174.38โ€”โ€”2949388Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-24166.14โ€”โ€”1074503Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-17166.64โ€”โ€”5353351Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-10173.02โ€”โ€”2221640Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-03171.15โ€”โ€”1270992Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-26170.08โ€”โ€”2906203Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-19180.92โ€”โ€”4345108Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-12180.06โ€”โ€”3530432Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-05179.78โ€”โ€”6826672Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-29173.21โ€”โ€”3025613Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-22183.05โ€”โ€”3706402Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-15188.08โ€”โ€”2813533Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-08184.06โ€”โ€”6160987Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-01185.30โ€”โ€”4433044Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-25196.63โ€”โ€”6354997Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-18205.42โ€”โ€”9118659Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-11199.43โ€”โ€”15329348Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-04192.99โ€”โ€”8108880Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-27194.14โ€”โ€”6258961Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-20192.97โ€”โ€”12293076Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-13190.19โ€”โ€”11318715Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-06195.34โ€”โ€”11558374Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-30183.61โ€”โ€”16268895Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-23172.49โ€”โ€”16192622Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-16163.76โ€”โ€”11754027Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-09151.61โ€”โ€”7168285Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-02158.13โ€”โ€”6732796Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-25163.48โ€”โ€”18386978Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-18167.17โ€”โ€”7594105Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-11160.11โ€”โ€”6554071Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-04156.04โ€”โ€”7607304Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28150.32โ€”โ€”5478995Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21157.22โ€”โ€”4004561Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-14146.96โ€”โ€”4896946Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-07142.34โ€”โ€”3027911Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-28138.04โ€”โ€”1636280Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-21145.32โ€”โ€”4325575Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-14141.57โ€”โ€”4308861Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-07158.42โ€”โ€”4580462Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-31159.71โ€”โ€”6840203Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-24161.82โ€”โ€”10726158Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-17160.86โ€”โ€”6635759Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-10162.85โ€”โ€”17728790Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-03183.91โ€”โ€”25339968Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-27175.36โ€”โ€”19400654Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-20161.18โ€”โ€”13034648Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-13163.42โ€”โ€”7942966Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-06172.26โ€”โ€”32524800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-29147.69โ€”โ€”5593418Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-22133.26โ€”โ€”2259423Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-15131.93โ€”โ€”2391524Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-08140.90โ€”โ€”3326607Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-01144.07โ€”โ€”2914527Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-25132.37โ€”โ€”6808550Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-18152.03โ€”โ€”6525980Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-11162.66โ€”โ€”15195319Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-04149.09โ€”โ€”8777846Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-27154.80โ€”โ€”71268508Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-1.7%
Trend directionRising+2.2%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-20.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-2.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+0.4%
Relative strength directionImproving+11.9%
Price momentumPositive+15.6%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.63ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-7 / ยฑ100

-43.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

23 /100

-7.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance54
Rotation Up14
Upward Expansion42
Deceleration87
Rotation Down47
Downward Expansion36

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-09-27 to 2026-10-02 ยท 27 classified observations out of 106 shown.

Balance 30%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 19%Downward Expansion 22%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-09-042026-10-02Developing-5.2%
Upward Expansion2026-07-312026-08-28Developing-9.8%
Rotation Up2026-07-102026-07-24New+2.3%
Balance2026-05-152026-07-03Developing+8.5%
Downward Expansion2026-04-032026-05-08Developing+20.4%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing66
Stage 2 ยท Advancing44
Stage 3 ยท Distribution39
Stage 4 ยท Declining42

Legacy result: Stage 1 ยท Stage 1A ยท Bottoming. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^NSEI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
79/100
Current Relative Strength
0.42
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+15.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+16.9%
Real Estate regime cohort
82th percentile17 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.78ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.63ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity INR 121.41falling
Slow Activity INR 124.83rising
Trend Reference INR 120.69-1.7% close margin
Current Fair Value INR 148.32-20.0% close margin
Structural low INR 101.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +6.8%
Annualized volatility +31.1%
From structural high -34.1%
From structural low +28.1%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^NSEI Regime survived Read
Near term1-5.2%-5.2% to -5.2%+0.0%+0.0%+1.0%+100.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context