Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Communication Services

ROKU Stage Analysis

Roku Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 152.85Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 45−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 44/100directional strength

Maturity 68/100lifecycle context

Confidence 92/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +69.1%USD 90.40 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	152.85	134.89	12.74	6386307	Deceleration	45	44
2026-10-02	152.39	132.85	13.22	7712564	Upward Expansion	48	51
2026-09-25	152.68	131.13	14.58	8339261	Upward Expansion	52	56
2026-09-18	153.64	129.32	19.59	10984167	Upward Expansion	64	77
2026-09-11	154.93	127.16	22.27	12468556	Upward Expansion	67	86
2026-09-04	155.59	125.00	22.83	10606495	Upward Expansion	67	81
2026-08-28	157.68	122.68	25.61	10667789	Upward Expansion	72	86
2026-08-21	157.49	120.59	26.68	9756709	Upward Expansion	77	87
2026-08-14	157.68	118.89	24.42	10293871	Upward Expansion	83	84
2026-08-07	153.11	117.08	22.95	17893477	Upward Expansion	82	78
2026-07-31	145.01	115.69	23.29	14834431	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-07-24	141.97	114.48	22.28	9583085	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-07-17	144.43	113.48	23.08	13429810	Upward Expansion	72	74
2026-07-10	140.69	112.29	15.44	13310673	Upward Expansion	65	69
2026-07-03	142.43	111.19	19.44	18966485	Upward Expansion	73	74
2026-06-26	135.40	109.78	15.05	38058303	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-06-19	138.07	108.49	12.47	78784770	Upward Expansion	72	59
2026-06-12	143.66	107.00	20.60	26741963	Upward Expansion	84	62
2026-06-05	122.26	105.53	5.71	9837702	Upward Expansion	64	53
2026-05-29	130.18	104.87	7.80	7764951	Upward Expansion	74	82
2026-05-22	125.55	104.07	7.43	8978294	Upward Expansion	69	80
2026-05-15	124.02	103.09	7.91	10812744	Upward Expansion	68	82
2026-05-08	129.53	102.10	12.84	13166479	Upward Expansion	82	85
2026-05-01	123.58	100.85	14.35	20283736	Balance	76	76
2026-04-24	115.22	100.19	9.01	12193009	Balance	39	46
2026-04-17	116.19	99.67	12.81	13274609	Balance	28	23
2026-04-10	102.47	99.19	6.25	11478040	Balance	-23	11
2026-04-03	97.66	98.92	6.22	9530735	Balance	-48	27
2026-03-27	87.15	98.84	-1.00	12218058	Balance	-61	32
2026-03-20	93.27	99.16	2.52	11890333	Balance	-40	19
2026-03-13	91.65	99.19	-1.28	14929676	Balance	-21	15
2026-03-06	100.57	99.14	7.41	19288816	Rotation Down	-21	19
2026-02-27	98.41	98.56	3.94	18256936	Rotation Down	-30	44
2026-02-20	89.06	97.95	-6.21	15891652	Rotation Down	-28	52
2026-02-13	90.06	97.98	-4.35	36018806	Upward Expansion	-26	36
2026-02-06	85.85	98.09	-10.37	21499045	Upward Expansion	-34	32
2026-01-30	95.20	98.20	-2.83	13581014	Upward Expansion	15	12
2026-01-23	106.23	97.97	8.20	10402104	Upward Expansion	50	29
2026-01-16	103.66	97.32	6.05	15507689	Upward Expansion	55	41
2026-01-09	111.17	96.57	13.04	16642578	Upward Expansion	63	65
2026-01-02	108.72	95.34	13.27	7842632	Upward Expansion	59	63
2025-12-26	112.08	94.34	15.14	7195695	Upward Expansion	67	63
2025-12-19	108.82	93.01	13.62	18038317	Upward Expansion	62	45
2025-12-12	107.47	91.69	13.12	15916446	Upward Expansion	60	29
2025-12-05	100.09	90.48	3.58	17747399	Upward Expansion	37	16
2025-11-28	96.79	89.18	1.17	8000253	Upward Expansion	33	17
2025-11-21	93.32	88.00	2.62	13718355	Upward Expansion	45	28
2025-11-14	99.77	87.08	6.60	12654946	Upward Expansion	52	35
2025-11-07	102.30	85.71	9.48	20233963	Deceleration	58	37
2025-10-31	106.13	84.30	10.41	29187015	Deceleration	68	37
2025-10-24	96.29	82.61	2.55	11412655	Upward Expansion	42	27
2025-10-17	94.21	81.82	2.56	10967372	Upward Expansion	45	32
2025-10-10	92.02	81.28	2.54	14276055	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-10-03	103.85	80.48	13.05	17450400	Upward Expansion	74	65
2025-09-26	99.60	79.57	9.95	13562951	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-09-19	101.78	79.03	12.05	16847223	Upward Expansion	77	77
2025-09-12	94.52	78.60	6.46	19781110	Upward Expansion	62	67
2025-09-05	95.24	78.76	9.29	13285420	Upward Expansion	67	71
2025-08-29	96.56	78.41	12.20	13345550	Upward Expansion	73	57
2025-08-22	94.22	77.95	9.55	17498300	Upward Expansion	70	42
2025-08-15	90.29	77.52	4.27	17782478	Upward Expansion	56	35
2025-08-08	83.21	77.04	-3.04	25707216	Upward Expansion	47	36
2025-08-01	79.98	76.91	-3.05	35920398	Upward Expansion	62	49
2025-07-25	90.12	76.82	7.18	13971858	Rotation Up	66	80
2025-07-18	93.29	76.39	12.41	12501792	Rotation Up	53	76
2025-07-11	88.99	75.96	9.07	12023572	Rotation Up	39	68
2025-07-04	88.27	75.76	8.31	11379839	Rotation Up	41	64
2025-06-27	86.94	75.62	8.73	18717844	Rotation Up	39	51
2025-06-20	80.99	75.03	5.95	21210684	Balance	28	30
2025-06-13	74.41	74.63	-2.17	16090409	Balance	-7	18
2025-06-06	78.50	74.45	3.00	18575139	Downward Expansion	-7	18
2025-05-30	72.46	74.29	-2.64	19269787	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2025-05-23	69.01	74.07	-5.33	13486196	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2025-05-16	71.37	74.28	-4.26	22148530	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2025-05-09	60.93	74.57	-12.65	18979669	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2025-05-02	61.55	75.15	-11.99	35783168	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-04-25	65.71	75.63	-2.95	17865183	Downward Expansion	-61	66
2025-04-18	58.46	75.92	-8.03	11732102	Downward Expansion	-69	72
2025-04-11	60.22	76.50	-7.49	33683070	Balance	-69	68
2025-04-04	55.28	76.98	-8.77	24495184	Balance	-44	54
2025-03-28	72.49	77.29	7.75	14096009	Balance	-20	27
2025-03-21	78.29	77.13	13.76	23075488	Balance	-1	17
2025-03-14	67.78	76.83	-1.01	19318752	Balance	2	12
2025-03-07	76.67	76.52	9.11	20866497	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-02-28	83.51	75.80	15.14	16525685	Upward Expansion	58	55
2025-02-21	88.86	74.79	18.69	16827641	Upward Expansion	61	68
2025-02-14	99.07	73.79	29.71	42211770	Upward Expansion	85	76
2025-02-07	85.00	72.58	14.78	13735745	Upward Expansion	64	46
2025-01-31	82.76	71.79	11.02	10502371	Upward Expansion	59	33
2025-01-24	81.29	71.10	6.74	12694361	Upward Expansion	46	25
2025-01-17	75.89	70.39	0.38	12200714	Upward Expansion	38	20
2025-01-10	79.19	69.67	6.87	15317535	Upward Expansion	53	32
2025-01-03	77.38	68.85	1.39	8474688	Upward Expansion	54	46
2024-12-27	77.03	68.18	-0.83	6730224	Upward Expansion	57	61
2024-12-20	80.59	67.52	3.65	14165145	Upward Expansion	60	61
2024-12-13	82.99	66.73	3.43	12321095	Deceleration	67	51
2024-12-06	84.12	66.01	4.56	33220293	Deceleration	66	32
2024-11-29	69.03	65.14	-12.54	11833667	Deceleration	25	16
2024-11-22	69.20	64.81	-13.07	22880187	Deceleration	27	22
2024-11-15	68.87	64.38	-13.03	17248896	Deceleration	32	22
2024-11-08	73.82	63.98	-11.08	23717540	Upward Expansion	40	25
2024-11-01	65.70	63.52	-17.24	39970496	Upward Expansion	41	31
2024-10-25	75.27	63.32	-7.75	12966401	Upward Expansion	64	56
2024-10-18	80.07	62.98	-1.84	13831540	Upward Expansion	75	74
2024-10-11	78.37	62.43	-3.80	12010947	Upward Expansion	72	77
2024-10-04	75.89	61.95	-5.94	11157649	Upward Expansion	70	79
2024-09-27	74.41	61.57	-8.12	15492639	Upward Expansion	69	77
2024-09-20	76.02	61.21	-5.66	19400602	Upward Expansion	76	79
2024-09-13	74.69	60.82	-6.33	19880559	Balance	77	75
2024-09-06	64.37	60.73	-14.96	12759482	Balance	24	39
2024-08-30	67.77	61.78	-16.44	19273630	Balance	27	34
2024-08-23	69.14	62.55	-16.12	20235545	Balance	9	7
2024-08-16	58.58	63.22	-28.74	13996992	Balance	-38	29
2024-08-09	55.10	64.17	-30.08	22308436	Balance	-54	33
2024-08-02	53.14	65.20	-33.03	22538981	Balance	-52	25
2024-07-26	59.04	66.40	-28.77	19201142	Balance	-14	16
2024-07-19	62.55	67.49	-27.32	18098622	Downward Expansion	-11	18
2024-07-12	61.32	68.45	-32.04	15428105	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2024-07-05	62.08	69.60	-31.91	13658206	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-06-28	59.93	70.98	-32.27	17825492	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2024-06-21	54.40	72.43	-38.87	12711531	Downward Expansion	-69	57
2024-06-14	54.51	73.78	-39.00	18124774	Downward Expansion	-74	59
2024-06-07	57.35	75.07	-34.11	12778911	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2024-05-31	57.40	75.86	-32.77	10400425	Downward Expansion	-66	57
2024-05-24	56.76	76.78	-34.85	14212206	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2024-05-17	61.44	76.76	-28.79	22048733	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2024-05-10	57.91	76.71	-31.56	12521271	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2024-05-03	59.11	76.98	-29.33	26781086	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2024-04-26	56.35	77.40	-32.18	39361915	Downward Expansion	-72	74
2024-04-19	56.90	77.88	-29.13	16453589	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2024-04-12	59.90	78.29	-29.74	15216984	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2024-04-05	59.83	78.84	-30.58	18953752	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2024-03-29	65.17	79.62	-25.47	12249594	Downward Expansion	-66	75
2024-03-22	63.58	80.18	-28.10	21507165	Rotation Down	-69	84
2024-03-15	63.99	80.62	-25.83	19488277	Rotation Down	-41	75
2024-03-08	64.50	81.13	-26.57	27851302	Rotation Down	-34	70
2024-03-01	63.35	81.62	-29.37	29836689	Rotation Down	-42	67
2024-02-23	64.48	82.39	-27.20	53790764	Deceleration	-39	46
2024-02-16	72.00	83.23	-18.07	77093117	Deceleration	-8	9
2024-02-09	95.80	83.28	6.68	25920431	Deceleration	59	31
2024-02-02	91.03	82.55	3.60	18802596	Deceleration	35	20
2024-01-26	89.00	81.61	2.59	25310652	Deceleration	30	20
2024-01-19	87.07	80.78	1.18	19429672	Deceleration	32	21
2024-01-12	86.05	79.96	3.02	29010260	Deceleration	36	22
2024-01-05	89.29	79.45	10.65	19547890	Upward Expansion	43	29
2023-12-29	91.66	78.79	10.69	19045920	Upward Expansion	59	45
2023-12-22	91.34	77.74	11.41	32817374	Upward Expansion	64	66
2023-12-15	95.93	76.56	18.89	30501423	Upward Expansion	67	82
2023-12-08	103.36	75.12	33.28	21330033	Upward Expansion	79	88
2023-12-01	103.54	73.46	35.31	49462116	Upward Expansion	82	85
2023-11-24	94.93	71.84	24.89	16880061	Upward Expansion	75	63
2023-11-17	92.97	70.55	23.99	33868599	Balance	62	43
2023-11-10	81.31	69.39	11.11	42967537	Balance	40	17
2023-11-03	84.75	68.74	19.18	92487537	Rotation Down	25	25
2023-10-27	56.35	68.05	-15.26	28886872	Rotation Down	-42	60
2023-10-20	59.80	68.36	-12.71	30492676	Deceleration	-35	39

Price vs TrendAbove+13.3%

Trend directionRising+16.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+69.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+12.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-2.7%

Price momentumPositive+49.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.06×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

45 / ±100

-21.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

44 /100

-42.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ROKU Directional State ↗ ROKU Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up31

Upward Expansion64

Deceleration94

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 49%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 16%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-10-02	Established	+17.6%
Balance	2026-03-13	2026-05-01	Developing	+34.8%
Rotation Down	2026-02-20	2026-03-06	New	+12.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-02-13	Established	-9.7%
Deceleration	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	-3.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-10-24	Established	+20.4%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-07-25	Developing	+3.7%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-06-20	New	+8.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-06-06	Developing	+34.3%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-04-11	Developing	-11.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-03-07	Developing	-4.9%
Deceleration	2024-11-15	2024-12-13	Developing	+20.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-20	2024-11-08	Developing	-2.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing6

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution64

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: 12.74
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +49.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +26.2%
Communication Services regime cohort: 95th percentile22 in cohort

Test ROKU trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.38×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.06×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ROKU Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 152.94falling

Slow Activity USD 145.27rising

Trend Reference USD 134.89+13.3% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 90.40+69.1% close margin

Structural low USD 100.11shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.0%

Annualized volatility +34.7%

From structural high -4.4%

From structural low +94.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	-6.4%-32.7% to +55.5%	+37.5%	+37.5%	-1.5%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-10.3%-39.9% to +43.9%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-9.3%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-2.3%-64.5% to +16.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-17.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+9.7%-80.7% to +44.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-25.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ROKU Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map