Weekly structural research · TWO · Consumer Defensive

5902 Stage Analysis

Tait Marketing & Distribution Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 34.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -50−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 36/100directional strength

Maturity 6/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -7.2%TWD 36.64 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	34.00	35.06	-35.68	560177	Downward Expansion	-50	36
2026-10-02	34.20	35.15	-35.31	107297	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2026-09-25	34.25	35.27	-35.79	601315	Balance	-40	25
2026-09-18	34.45	35.38	-35.43	429100	Balance	-21	13
2026-09-11	34.60	35.53	-34.91	596307	Balance	-20	12
2026-09-04	34.40	35.65	-36.91	3000	Balance	-21	15
2026-08-28	34.85	35.77	-36.83	2000	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2026-08-21	34.70	35.91	-36.62	2000	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2026-08-14	34.95	36.05	-37.98	2000	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2026-08-07	34.30	36.21	-38.00	6000	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2026-07-31	34.10	36.49	-37.86	13000	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2026-07-24	34.20	36.77	-39.41	27000	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2026-07-17	33.90	37.06	-39.52	44000	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2026-07-10	33.55	37.37	-44.57	50089	Downward Expansion	-64	44
2026-07-03	33.90	37.71	-46.62	117400	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2026-06-26	33.85	38.03	-44.98	313000	Downward Expansion	-65	48
2026-06-19	35.10	38.32	-46.16	162808	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2026-06-12	34.66	38.58	-44.98	166020	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2026-06-05	33.85	38.87	-48.18	339700	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2026-05-29	33.32	39.21	-49.46	1116004	Downward Expansion	-86	65
2026-05-22	35.85	39.56	-43.40	124055	Downward Expansion	-67	51
2026-05-15	36.04	39.79	-42.43	127079	Downward Expansion	-66	50
2026-05-08	36.28	40.05	-43.55	712310	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2026-05-01	36.04	40.32	-40.85	63041	Downward Expansion	-71	54
2026-04-24	36.81	40.62	-40.42	356233	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2026-04-17	36.76	40.89	-37.91	179000	Downward Expansion	-67	51
2026-04-10	37.09	41.17	-35.61	66000	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2026-04-03	37.24	41.41	-30.39	43000	Downward Expansion	-63	51
2026-03-27	37.24	41.59	-32.12	45000	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2026-03-20	37.24	41.76	-33.56	136231	Downward Expansion	-67	57
2026-03-13	36.86	41.96	-34.57	130000	Downward Expansion	-75	61
2026-03-06	37.71	42.21	-34.02	121000	Downward Expansion	-69	58
2026-02-27	37.57	42.44	-38.02	77000	Downward Expansion	-75	72
2026-02-13	38.91	42.63	-32.77	113000	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2026-02-06	38.19	42.78	-30.59	88018	Downward Expansion	-73	87
2026-01-30	38.00	42.93	-31.82	129402	Downward Expansion	-81	89
2026-01-23	39.15	43.12	-29.85	113072	Downward Expansion	-77	83
2026-01-16	38.72	43.25	-29.68	176000	Downward Expansion	-86	80
2026-01-09	39.77	43.39	-25.39	321282	Balance	-80	66
2026-01-02	42.73	43.50	-17.54	105020	Balance	-51	34
2025-12-26	42.58	43.51	-15.64	58564	Balance	-55	29
2025-12-19	42.97	43.54	-12.41	126021	Balance	-22	11
2025-12-12	43.20	43.57	-13.53	106099	Balance	-20	12
2025-12-05	43.59	43.58	-12.16	99131	Balance	-8	12
2025-11-28	43.63	43.62	-11.01	86003	Balance	-10	16
2025-11-21	42.44	43.51	-9.54	68203	Balance	-20	23
2025-11-14	42.97	43.44	-11.60	71000	Balance	-12	9
2025-11-07	43.25	43.36	-11.81	210130	Balance	19	13
2025-10-31	44.21	43.17	-11.74	263021	Balance	29	16
2025-10-24	43.63	43.03	-10.64	176000	Balance	27	15
2025-10-17	42.92	42.93	-11.32	349792	Upward Expansion	23	11
2025-10-10	43.92	42.88	-9.23	232888	Upward Expansion	51	33
2025-10-03	44.35	42.82	-6.50	765100	Upward Expansion	53	51
2025-09-26	44.83	42.75	-1.05	735490	Upward Expansion	54	53
2025-09-19	45.07	42.54	-0.41	1155000	Upward Expansion	56	43
2025-09-12	45.26	42.31	0.49	1110561	Upward Expansion	59	28
2025-09-05	44.30	42.05	2.38	305000	Upward Expansion	41	19
2025-08-29	42.39	41.81	-0.86	60653	Upward Expansion	23	12
2025-08-22	42.35	41.63	1.04	239468	Upward Expansion	33	22
2025-08-15	43.25	41.45	0.89	185100	Upward Expansion	51	33
2025-08-08	44.40	41.23	4.88	63000	Upward Expansion	60	44
2025-08-01	44.73	40.97	8.48	330906	Upward Expansion	63	35
2025-07-25	43.11	40.71	4.99	63000	Upward Expansion	49	28
2025-07-18	43.44	40.52	5.97	117127	Deceleration	53	31
2025-07-11	42.87	40.29	7.83	70000	Deceleration	40	26
2025-07-04	43.49	40.11	10.88	73752	Deceleration	42	27
2025-06-27	43.16	39.87	10.50	68024	Deceleration	41	27
2025-06-20	42.97	39.63	13.34	171225	Upward Expansion	52	34
2025-06-13	42.97	39.39	13.91	138071	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-06-06	43.15	39.17	17.33	239231	Upward Expansion	59	54
2025-05-30	43.48	38.94	20.73	170000	Upward Expansion	62	66
2025-05-23	43.89	38.68	21.02	72050	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-05-16	43.48	38.42	19.66	267235	Upward Expansion	67	62
2025-05-09	44.63	38.17	29.09	575514	Deceleration	76	51
2025-05-02	40.44	37.88	18.60	88000	Deceleration	39	19
2025-04-25	40.44	37.73	24.80	96030	Deceleration	39	20
2025-04-18	40.34	37.61	28.43	241219	Deceleration	40	20
2025-04-11	37.63	37.49	19.92	252078	Upward Expansion	33	23
2025-04-04	39.98	37.46	17.47	177131	Upward Expansion	63	59
2025-03-28	40.62	37.39	18.32	159768	Upward Expansion	67	85
2025-03-21	41.36	37.30	17.80	267047	Upward Expansion	72	87
2025-03-14	42.19	37.17	22.03	495026	Upward Expansion	89	92
2025-03-07	42.23	37.06	19.51	807963	Upward Expansion	93	86
2025-02-28	38.59	36.89	7.34	105245	Balance	71	64
2025-02-21	38.13	36.92	3.19	197479	Balance	38	43
2025-02-14	37.63	36.89	4.41	165478	Balance	31	26
2025-02-07	36.94	36.88	1.09	67500	Balance	9	8
2025-01-24	37.12	36.81	1.34	35000	Balance	5	7
2025-01-17	36.75	36.65	1.86	108000	Balance	-3	4
2025-01-10	36.66	36.50	2.04	176000	Balance	37	22
2025-01-03	36.84	36.33	2.84	54000	Balance	39	30
2024-12-27	36.66	36.10	0.52	259000	Deceleration	41	34
2024-12-20	37.40	35.88	5.82	95000	Deceleration	49	35
2024-12-13	36.66	35.65	1.32	75000	Deceleration	35	23
2024-12-06	37.35	35.44	2.24	140000	Deceleration	46	23
2024-11-29	36.29	35.19	3.26	68000	Deceleration	24	12
2024-11-22	36.15	34.97	-0.22	75102	Deceleration	23	12
2024-11-15	35.78	34.74	-0.75	152000	Deceleration	10	7
2024-11-08	36.34	34.51	-2.94	58000	Deceleration	17	11
2024-11-01	36.11	34.27	-0.64	47000	Deceleration	16	11
2024-10-25	35.92	34.05	-3.67	50000	Deceleration	16	13
2024-10-18	36.06	33.82	-4.22	76000	Deceleration	17	14
2024-10-11	35.78	33.59	-2.86	79000	Deceleration	19	15
2024-10-04	35.92	33.38	-0.17	45000	Deceleration	32	18
2024-09-27	36.15	33.16	-2.08	108000	Deceleration	35	20
2024-09-20	36.61	32.95	1.78	101000	Deceleration	39	27
2024-09-13	36.94	32.71	4.27	256000	Deceleration	43	34
2024-09-06	36.71	32.45	4.95	231000	Upward Expansion	46	39
2024-08-30	37.81	32.20	3.70	194000	Upward Expansion	60	53
2024-08-23	37.76	31.91	3.70	273000	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-08-16	37.63	31.65	2.03	942000	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-08-09	38.78	31.41	9.04	561000	Upward Expansion	75	70
2024-08-02	37.07	31.13	3.23	327000	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-07-26	39.61	30.92	7.50	157000	Upward Expansion	94	98
2024-07-19	37.26	30.63	-2.41	439000	Upward Expansion	91	97
2024-07-12	37.21	30.43	-7.24	537000	Upward Expansion	96	98
2024-07-05	34.82	30.22	-12.32	426000	Upward Expansion	92	95
2024-06-28	32.47	30.11	-16.96	115000	Rotation Up	78	79
2024-06-21	32.28	30.07	-18.78	217000	Rotation Up	54	61
2024-06-14	31.41	30.00	-18.85	280000	Rotation Up	46	48
2024-06-07	30.04	29.98	-20.57	142000	Rotation Up	17	30
2024-05-31	30.09	30.01	-18.51	165000	Rotation Up	16	30
2024-05-24	30.44	29.93	-19.66	154000	Balance	23	27
2024-05-17	30.31	29.91	-19.50	262000	Balance	-1	11
2024-05-10	29.95	29.90	-19.04	242000	Downward Expansion	-23	11
2024-05-03	29.82	29.91	-18.51	267000	Downward Expansion	-34	21
2024-04-26	29.03	29.93	-20.41	234000	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2024-04-19	28.85	29.99	-19.03	196000	Downward Expansion	-62	35
2024-04-12	29.12	30.05	-23.56	169000	Downward Expansion	-57	32
2024-04-05	29.78	30.15	-20.79	39000	Downward Expansion	-52	30
2024-03-29	29.03	30.27	-23.01	71000	Downward Expansion	-62	40
2024-03-22	29.16	30.42	-22.80	61000	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2024-03-15	29.38	30.57	-20.45	88000	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2024-03-08	29.34	30.69	-21.37	126000	Downward Expansion	-59	39
2024-03-01	29.91	30.81	-16.62	129000	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2024-02-23	29.34	30.95	-18.34	158000	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2024-02-16	29.07	31.11	-18.23	53000	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2024-02-09	29.12	31.30	-16.16	18000	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2024-02-02	29.16	31.48	-16.18	286000	Balance	-66	52
2024-01-26	30.04	31.67	-13.58	78000	Balance	-44	27
2024-01-19	30.31	31.81	-11.53	116001	Balance	-39	22
2024-01-12	30.44	31.91	-10.52	89000	Balance	-35	19
2024-01-05	30.88	32.01	-9.49	91000	Balance	-18	10
2023-12-29	31.01	32.15	-11.42	103000	Balance	-17	13
2023-12-22	30.97	32.29	-10.16	137000	Balance	-26	20
2023-12-15	31.19	32.43	-10.14	93000	Downward Expansion	-28	20
2023-12-08	31.28	32.60	-8.60	156000	Downward Expansion	-32	22
2023-12-01	31.37	32.67	-8.77	121000	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2023-11-24	30.31	32.73	-11.26	147000	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2023-11-17	30.79	32.79	-9.68	120000	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2023-11-10	30.70	32.86	-7.39	76000	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2023-11-03	27.88	32.91	-15.46	183000	Downward Expansion	-88	87
2023-10-27	29.73	33.00	-8.44	76000	Downward Expansion	-74	82
2023-10-20	29.95	33.03	-10.05	94000	Downward Expansion	-74	84
2023-10-13	30.44	33.05	-10.85	50000	Rotation Down	-72	83
2023-10-06	30.39	33.05	-10.04	92000	Rotation Down	-49	73

Price vs TrendBelow-3.0%

Trend directionFalling-3.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-7.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-35.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.9%

Price momentumNegative-8.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.39×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-50 / ±100

-29.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

36 /100

+24.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

5902 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance33

Rotation Up13

Upward Expansion10

Deceleration53

Rotation Down58

Downward Expansion72

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	-0.6%
Balance	2026-09-04	2026-09-25	New	-0.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-08-28	Extended	-10.0%
Balance	2025-10-24	2026-01-09	Developing	-8.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-10-17	Established	-0.4%
Deceleration	2025-06-27	2025-07-18	New	+0.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-06-20	Developing	-1.2%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-05-09	New	+10.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-04-11	Developing	-10.9%
Balance	2025-01-03	2025-02-28	Developing	+4.8%
Deceleration	2024-09-13	2024-12-27	Established	-0.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-09-06	Developing	+5.4%
Rotation Up	2024-05-31	2024-06-28	Developing	+7.9%
Balance	2024-05-17	2024-05-24	New	+0.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing68

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution23

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -35.68
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -8.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -47.6%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 27th percentile37 in cohort

Test 5902 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.41×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.39×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 5902 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 34.20falling

Slow Activity TWD 34.54falling

Trend Reference TWD 35.06-3.0% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 36.64-7.2% close margin

Structural low TWD 31.89shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +1.9%

Annualized volatility +13.4%

From structural high -24.9%

From structural low +6.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	+0.4%-4.3% to +4.1%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-2.6%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+2.0%-7.1% to +29.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-9.0%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+4.6%-11.7% to +25.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-8.9%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+32.4%+20.4% to +44.5%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+21.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

5902 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map