Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

AMTB Stage Analysis

Amerant Bancorp Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 28.77Tenure EstablishedBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 58−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 43/100directional strength

Maturity 81/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +33.8%USD 21.50 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	28.77	25.71	13.75	1428183	Upward Expansion	58	43
2026-10-02	29.56	25.44	18.87	1745405	Upward Expansion	61	50
2026-09-25	29.57	25.16	19.42	1703942	Upward Expansion	63	55
2026-09-18	29.80	24.88	22.48	2406821	Upward Expansion	68	57
2026-09-11	29.32	24.64	20.99	1149940	Upward Expansion	64	56
2026-09-04	29.68	24.41	22.01	1540374	Upward Expansion	72	62
2026-08-28	28.84	24.19	19.11	1205394	Upward Expansion	65	61
2026-08-21	28.69	23.94	19.37	1566371	Upward Expansion	67	81
2026-08-14	29.17	23.69	20.05	2014197	Upward Expansion	74	88
2026-08-07	28.82	23.40	19.29	1901730	Upward Expansion	76	89
2026-07-31	29.51	23.12	27.04	3093553	Upward Expansion	89	92
2026-07-24	28.41	22.79	24.41	2548634	Upward Expansion	89	88
2026-07-17	26.10	22.50	14.10	1812277	Upward Expansion	76	79
2026-07-10	25.42	22.30	9.66	1317667	Upward Expansion	70	76
2026-07-03	25.37	22.13	11.09	1660294	Upward Expansion	73	74
2026-06-26	25.42	21.92	13.93	2341733	Upward Expansion	76	66
2026-06-19	23.60	21.69	3.62	1462456	Upward Expansion	56	39
2026-06-12	23.91	21.50	6.21	1137029	Deceleration	63	35
2026-06-05	22.78	21.29	2.02	944031	Deceleration	35	18
2026-05-29	22.72	21.09	-0.67	1021817	Deceleration	37	22
2026-05-22	22.46	20.89	-0.35	936664	Upward Expansion	39	25
2026-05-15	22.30	20.72	-0.14	1020742	Upward Expansion	53	33
2026-05-08	23.34	20.56	4.72	1023388	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-05-01	22.85	20.38	4.97	1466421	Upward Expansion	60	65
2026-04-24	22.73	20.23	5.47	1725734	Upward Expansion	61	69
2026-04-17	23.71	20.13	10.75	1311497	Upward Expansion	72	71
2026-04-10	23.71	20.02	15.64	1244553	Deceleration	73	48
2026-04-03	22.68	19.93	14.72	972389	Deceleration	53	27
2026-03-27	21.39	19.87	11.95	1173756	Deceleration	33	21
2026-03-20	20.63	19.86	5.33	1402417	Deceleration	34	23
2026-03-13	20.59	19.88	2.90	1721475	Upward Expansion	41	25
2026-03-06	21.25	19.84	4.25	1416645	Upward Expansion	58	41
2026-02-27	21.26	19.75	1.87	1477844	Upward Expansion	64	61
2026-02-20	22.50	19.65	6.77	793055	Upward Expansion	70	80
2026-02-13	22.35	19.57	6.93	1121624	Upward Expansion	72	80
2026-02-06	23.03	19.48	8.39	1983744	Upward Expansion	86	84
2026-01-30	21.53	19.35	0.81	1459852	Rotation Up	75	69
2026-01-23	21.09	19.28	-1.27	1337502	Rotation Up	44	44
2026-01-16	20.67	19.17	-3.98	951794	Rotation Up	33	41
2026-01-09	20.19	19.03	-6.95	1376355	Rotation Up	37	45
2026-01-02	19.55	18.91	-8.73	1099226	Rotation Up	33	47
2025-12-26	19.90	18.83	-8.49	633530	Rotation Up	34	44
2025-12-19	20.00	18.74	-7.19	1344992	Rotation Up	36	37
2025-12-12	20.32	18.63	-6.05	1181807	Rotation Down	28	29
2025-12-05	19.13	18.55	-12.60	1056631	Rotation Down	6	13
2025-11-28	18.66	18.49	-15.14	1162689	Rotation Down	-13	15
2025-11-21	17.89	18.44	-16.32	1618767	Rotation Down	-33	35
2025-11-14	17.46	18.39	-20.61	1939658	Rotation Down	-36	56
2025-11-07	16.87	18.42	-23.83	1707633	Rotation Down	-33	61
2025-10-31	16.55	18.43	-27.07	1969134	Rotation Down	-41	62
2025-10-24	17.33	18.45	-23.62	2044151	Deceleration	-33	43
2025-10-17	17.73	18.55	-20.81	949651	Deceleration	-28	34
2025-10-10	17.99	18.64	-18.62	1155741	Deceleration	4	19
2025-10-03	18.36	18.73	-19.28	1160537	Upward Expansion	20	16
2025-09-26	19.68	18.82	-12.87	748381	Upward Expansion	55	37
2025-09-19	20.43	18.91	-10.08	1432384	Upward Expansion	61	64
2025-09-12	20.80	18.97	-7.69	479244	Rotation Up	64	76
2025-09-05	21.00	19.05	-5.63	492095	Rotation Up	42	66
2025-08-29	21.22	19.11	-4.61	767014	Rotation Up	50	57
2025-08-22	21.00	19.15	-5.92	925237	Rotation Up	40	30
2025-08-15	19.59	19.21	-12.28	1029365	Rotation Up	7	14
2025-08-08	18.53	19.27	-16.50	848906	Rotation Up	-1	19
2025-08-01	18.28	19.31	-15.87	1097713	Rotation Up	3	30
2025-07-25	19.92	19.41	-10.94	1135689	Rotation Up	32	53
2025-07-18	19.60	19.47	-11.46	1182683	Downward Expansion	7	26
2025-07-11	19.38	19.54	-12.58	1041640	Downward Expansion	-2	14
2025-07-04	19.30	19.69	-13.75	878161	Downward Expansion	-26	18
2025-06-27	17.77	19.88	-19.56	1243529	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2025-06-20	16.40	20.09	-23.69	667312	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2025-06-13	16.71	20.38	-22.75	962817	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2025-06-06	17.08	20.60	-21.79	1198641	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2025-05-30	17.22	20.80	-20.29	626699	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-05-23	16.76	20.91	-21.53	788637	Downward Expansion	-67	53
2025-05-16	17.77	21.02	-19.42	1129129	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2025-05-09	17.41	21.11	-17.44	952874	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2025-05-02	17.16	21.18	-19.50	1142635	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2025-04-25	16.43	21.27	-21.15	1362130	Downward Expansion	-81	89
2025-04-18	18.19	21.39	-9.22	674282	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2025-04-11	17.34	21.48	-15.08	1260753	Downward Expansion	-83	86
2025-04-04	17.20	21.60	-11.37	1065825	Rotation Down	-88	83
2025-03-28	20.13	21.70	-6.03	730020	Rotation Down	-40	56
2025-03-21	20.57	21.74	-5.73	760906	Deceleration	-24	40
2025-03-14	20.58	21.77	-5.45	793635	Deceleration	-22	20
2025-03-07	21.10	21.75	-5.52	907347	Deceleration	6	4
2025-02-28	22.45	21.68	-2.85	829643	Deceleration	38	28
2025-02-21	22.18	21.57	-5.01	727912	Deceleration	39	27
2025-02-14	23.32	21.56	-1.98	777632	Deceleration	47	32
2025-02-07	22.54	21.61	-4.12	1059227	Deceleration	36	21
2025-01-31	22.60	21.64	-4.34	1100041	Deceleration	19	12
2025-01-24	22.63	21.60	-5.46	1102103	Deceleration	-4	15
2025-01-17	21.63	21.58	-8.52	740811	Deceleration	-16	26
2025-01-10	19.62	21.53	-15.04	801914	Deceleration	-24	33
2025-01-03	21.21	21.56	-10.49	570224	Deceleration	16	21
2024-12-27	21.75	21.55	-9.34	630931	Upward Expansion	36	22
2024-12-20	21.74	21.54	-9.37	2276035	Upward Expansion	55	40
2024-12-13	23.88	21.53	-2.91	1161297	Upward Expansion	65	76
2024-12-06	24.94	21.49	0.26	1241348	Upward Expansion	73	82
2024-11-29	24.22	21.39	-2.14	973442	Rotation Up	69	78
2024-11-22	25.02	21.31	1.99	1419995	Rotation Up	54	68
2024-11-15	23.24	21.17	-3.83	1223652	Downward Expansion	30	41
2024-11-08	23.29	21.10	-5.88	1513404	Downward Expansion	27	20
2024-11-01	20.32	21.01	-14.10	1241320	Downward Expansion	-47	26
2024-10-25	20.26	21.04	-15.87	1020092	Downward Expansion	-49	35
2024-10-18	20.33	21.12	-16.64	1083016	Downward Expansion	-49	38
2024-10-11	19.57	21.15	-19.23	803098	Balance	-55	40
2024-10-04	19.82	21.20	-17.53	1163142	Balance	-51	28
2024-09-27	19.90	21.26	-17.25	2464083	Balance	-40	21
2024-09-20	21.02	21.27	-12.30	668457	Balance	-30	13
2024-09-13	20.97	21.26	-11.37	346298	Balance	-31	14
2024-09-06	20.12	21.29	-11.75	223251	Balance	-51	24
2024-08-30	21.41	21.34	-10.18	516966	Balance	-44	37
2024-08-23	21.42	21.33	-10.05	405750	Balance	-49	38
2024-08-16	20.07	21.39	-14.63	442029	Balance	-53	41
2024-08-09	18.82	21.47	-17.01	772611	Balance	-65	37
2024-08-02	19.34	21.58	-15.02	920656	Balance	-7	10
2024-07-26	21.73	21.71	-6.87	1183593	Balance	53	53
2024-07-19	24.92	21.77	5.85	1344650	Balance	53	60
2024-07-12	23.49	21.74	-2.00	647330	Balance	28	20
2024-07-05	21.31	21.74	-10.15	407960	Balance	-45	28
2024-06-28	21.93	21.77	-5.80	1503625	Balance	-38	31
2024-06-21	20.11	21.74	-13.54	603356	Balance	-63	53
2024-06-14	20.59	21.74	-11.08	432084	Balance	-54	31
2024-06-07	21.01	21.73	-7.96	367341	Balance	-34	15
2024-05-31	21.29	21.63	-5.79	336413	Balance	11	12
2024-05-24	21.55	21.56	-5.15	349010	Balance	18	18
2024-05-17	22.55	21.40	-0.86	356596	Balance	45	30
2024-05-10	22.11	21.20	-1.12	371884	Balance	28	13
2024-05-03	21.76	21.04	-0.73	391128	Balance	9	9
2024-04-26	20.77	20.91	-4.55	526987	Balance	6	10
2024-04-19	21.34	20.77	0.61	342599	Balance	16	8
2024-04-12	20.35	20.62	-6.98	345969	Deceleration	12	8
2024-04-05	21.47	20.55	-3.54	312792	Deceleration	29	17
2024-03-29	22.41	20.46	-0.50	251853	Deceleration	37	20
2024-03-22	21.41	20.33	-4.95	335101	Deceleration	10	11
2024-03-15	21.13	20.20	-4.62	518972	Deceleration	8	15
2024-03-08	21.42	20.12	-3.96	409542	Deceleration	10	15
2024-03-01	20.18	20.05	-10.55	366879	Deceleration	0	13
2024-02-23	20.94	20.02	-7.35	322903	Deceleration	27	21
2024-02-16	21.64	19.95	-3.82	534742	Deceleration	35	20
2024-02-09	21.74	19.85	-4.72	591630	Deceleration	38	23
2024-02-02	21.21	19.70	-6.76	559615	Upward Expansion	42	28
2024-01-26	23.16	19.56	2.17	535294	Upward Expansion	53	42
2024-01-19	22.28	19.33	-1.34	314002	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-01-12	22.23	19.17	-1.17	295394	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-01-05	23.33	19.05	4.74	379818	Upward Expansion	67	82
2023-12-29	23.55	18.91	3.37	224217	Upward Expansion	72	86
2023-12-22	23.77	18.73	3.97	525733	Upward Expansion	81	89
2023-12-15	23.64	18.53	3.67	539625	Upward Expansion	87	88
2023-12-08	22.16	18.32	-1.00	274441	Upward Expansion	83	83
2023-12-01	20.98	18.10	-6.74	283612	Upward Expansion	74	75
2023-11-24	20.16	17.94	-10.47	166026	Balance	67	59
2023-11-17	20.22	17.85	-10.18	291301	Balance	67	41
2023-11-10	18.26	17.75	-17.88	214851	Balance	6	5
2023-11-03	19.04	17.75	-14.18	294252	Downward Expansion	12	8
2023-10-27	16.82	17.77	-20.74	312672	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2023-10-20	16.42	17.89	-25.41	340167	Balance	-65	54

Price vs TrendAbove+11.9%

Trend directionRising+11.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+33.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+10.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+13.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.1%

Price momentumPositive+21.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.54×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

58 / ±100

-5.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

43 /100

-12.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AMTB Directional State ↗ AMTB Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance14

Rotation Up46

Upward Expansion80

Deceleration68

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion7

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 14%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-10-09	Established	+21.9%
Deceleration	2026-05-29	2026-06-12	New	+5.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-05-22	Developing	-5.3%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-04-10	New	+15.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-03-13	Developing	-10.6%
Rotation Up	2025-12-19	2026-01-30	Developing	+7.6%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-12-12	Developing	+22.7%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-10-24	New	-3.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-10-03	New	-10.1%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-09-12	Developing	+4.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-07-18	Established	+13.0%
Rotation Down	2025-03-28	2025-04-04	New	-14.6%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-03-21	Developing	-3.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-06	2024-12-27	New	-12.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 91/100
Current Relative Strength: 13.75
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +21.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +6.4%
Financial Services regime cohort: 47th percentile47 in cohort

Test AMTB trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.84×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.54×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution5 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AMTB Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 29.31rising

Slow Activity USD 27.30rising

Trend Reference USD 25.71+11.9% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 21.50+33.8% close margin

Structural low USD 21.18shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.7%

Annualized volatility +21.7%

From structural high -5.7%

From structural low +86.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	22	-0.1%-23.1% to +17.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.1%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-1.4%-34.5% to +24.1%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-5.4%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-7.1%-35.0% to +43.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-13.5%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-3.9%-26.2% to +21.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-27.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AMTB Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map