Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

HNR1 Stage Analysis

Hannover Rück SE

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 263.20Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI
Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 72−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 44/100directional strength
Maturity 34/100lifecycle context
Confidence 82/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +13.1%EUR 232.66 · improving
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-09263.20248.915.29597336Upward Expansion7244
2026-10-02255.00248.431.48698586Upward Expansion5228
2026-09-25257.80247.831.89607841Upward Expansion6238
2026-09-18252.40247.410.16821678Upward Expansion5538
2026-09-11250.40246.97-1.65754629Upward Expansion5841
2026-09-04260.60246.450.43197454Upward Expansion7872
2026-08-28257.40245.65-2.7398464Upward Expansion7460
2026-08-21250.80244.64-3.69142345Upward Expansion5948
2026-08-14253.40243.72-3.86111162Upward Expansion6361
2026-08-07253.60243.04-3.42135966Upward Expansion6568
2026-07-31250.60242.43-2.16139751Upward Expansion6064
2026-07-24253.20242.220.7895953Upward Expansion6450
2026-07-17255.00242.252.52115371Downward Expansion4037
2026-07-10250.00242.10-0.47106708Downward Expansion1920
2026-07-03244.20242.03-5.54110639Downward Expansion-3321
2026-06-26238.40241.90-3.86107742Downward Expansion-5952
2026-06-19234.20242.19-6.91476027Rotation Down-5464
2026-06-12228.20242.46-8.28180402Rotation Down-4462
2026-06-05227.20243.07-9.41208373Rotation Down-3951
2026-05-29232.40243.39-8.95969953Upward Expansion-3032
2026-05-22241.40243.49-4.93897777Upward Expansion-420
2026-05-15237.40243.56-3.111297006Upward Expansion1016
2026-05-08244.60243.59-1.991163120Upward Expansion3823
2026-05-01245.23243.73-1.79762780Upward Expansion5647
2026-04-24258.94243.714.16628289Upward Expansion6574
2026-04-17262.37243.152.91783429Upward Expansion7575
2026-04-10259.70242.205.42633981Upward Expansion7370
2026-04-03256.85241.476.93703102Rotation Up7361
2026-03-27245.42240.666.00724362Rotation Up2327
2026-03-20247.52240.386.451155635Rotation Up3027
2026-03-13248.66240.142.10815318Balance1520
2026-03-06236.86239.98-3.41767555Balance-2619
2026-02-27245.42240.53-6.73625303Downward Expansion-1415
2026-02-20239.14240.64-9.16630403Downward Expansion-5028
2026-02-13234.76241.13-9.71714686Downward Expansion-5860
2026-02-06236.48241.74-8.48777432Downward Expansion-6068
2026-01-30227.34242.26-11.55615897Downward Expansion-6673
2026-01-23223.15243.13-14.68856204Balance-7563
2026-01-16232.86244.19-12.70755870Balance-4928
2026-01-09235.33244.94-11.981070433Balance-138
2026-01-02244.47245.62-6.23321166Balance2431
2025-12-26253.99246.48-2.07105992Balance2737
2025-12-19250.57246.85-3.33533712Balance316
2025-12-12247.71247.30-4.21487251Balance-69
2025-12-05240.47247.86-6.61452648Balance-2013
2025-11-28246.95248.78-3.60576915Balance-108
2025-11-21242.38249.25-2.55495197Downward Expansion-3419
2025-11-14246.57249.80-4.35575606Downward Expansion-3922
2025-11-07236.67250.13-7.20472351Downward Expansion-5635
2025-10-31235.52250.31-9.37470759Downward Expansion-4725
2025-10-24243.52250.63-7.65501366Downward Expansion-3219
2025-10-17238.19251.03-8.38687516Downward Expansion-4023
2025-10-10248.85251.44-6.25561787Downward Expansion-3419
2025-10-03244.66251.55-8.69477639Downward Expansion-4533
2025-09-26242.19251.59-7.51589049Downward Expansion-6154
2025-09-19233.81251.40-10.62548826Downward Expansion-7077
2025-09-12237.81251.17-9.72516192Rotation Down-6478
2025-09-05232.67250.94-11.68399769Rotation Down-5272
2025-08-29236.86250.96-11.67422173Rotation Down-4761
2025-08-22240.47250.88-12.40520128Rotation Down-3650
2025-08-15243.71250.79-11.62667337Deceleration-3233
2025-08-08253.23250.49-7.79529647Deceleration612
2025-08-01248.85249.76-6.65362152Deceleration-314
2025-07-25253.99249.17-7.97455688Deceleration914
2025-07-18253.04248.20-8.74354806Deceleration816
2025-07-11252.09247.28-9.13327992Deceleration916
2025-07-04253.42246.74-7.06410008Deceleration2923
2025-06-27254.75246.17-7.68393439Deceleration3518
2025-06-20255.33245.27-4.98491263Upward Expansion4227
2025-06-13255.71244.36-5.68362397Upward Expansion5739
2025-06-06270.56243.25-3.55387921Upward Expansion7052
2025-05-30265.04241.56-4.40460504Upward Expansion6356
2025-05-23264.08240.09-3.31432446Upward Expansion6362
2025-05-16264.46238.83-3.74825653Upward Expansion6569
2025-05-09267.89237.94-1.38674879Upward Expansion7575
2025-05-02261.18237.03-2.17553716Upward Expansion7049
2025-04-25258.97236.030.67395579Upward Expansion6944
2025-04-18256.38235.234.59441356Upward Expansion6944
2025-04-11242.18234.442.911052623Upward Expansion5740
2025-04-04244.95234.192.81782335Upward Expansion6371
2025-03-28255.55233.77-1.42495282Upward Expansion7581
2025-03-21250.48233.13-5.33753275Upward Expansion7075
2025-03-14252.23232.60-5.25837747Upward Expansion7566
2025-03-07245.78231.74-7.95713403Balance6736
2025-02-28236.37230.19-9.88495717Balance3916
2025-02-21227.15229.04-12.58489105Balance2010
2025-02-14230.93228.55-12.29517701Upward Expansion4728
2025-02-07233.14227.83-8.75570499Upward Expansion5243
2025-01-31234.53227.41-8.17384089Upward Expansion5146
2025-01-24237.76226.74-5.58449457Balance5946
2025-01-17234.62226.10-4.73490302Balance5224
2025-01-10231.39225.52-2.99491028Balance3515
2025-01-03231.21224.78-1.64247179Balance3415
2024-12-27224.94224.28-4.74138730Balance2517
2024-12-20225.40223.80-4.11596341Balance3023
2024-12-13235.73223.26-2.32412159Balance4735
2024-12-06236.28222.35-1.97478454Balance4624
2024-11-29227.89221.77-1.81743532Balance1112
2024-11-22227.89221.00-0.32503217Balance919
2024-11-15222.45220.27-2.18641992Upward Expansion1525
2024-11-08220.05219.71-3.28454029Upward Expansion1518
2024-11-01220.88219.24-3.18430253Upward Expansion2918
2024-10-25226.32219.02-1.97396371Upward Expansion4532
2024-10-18237.66219.041.78436245Upward Expansion6347
2024-10-11240.71218.484.54608758Upward Expansion7149
2024-10-04231.21217.741.77408550Upward Expansion6046
2024-09-27234.90217.171.50352731Upward Expansion6564
2024-09-20232.50216.394.50469142Upward Expansion6576
2024-09-13234.80215.685.69366529Upward Expansion6780
2024-09-06232.41214.676.98399731Upward Expansion6576
2024-08-30236.37213.695.54449085Upward Expansion7574
2024-08-23234.53212.406.50471422Deceleration6849
2024-08-16226.32211.224.75707652Deceleration3619
2024-08-09199.30210.37-4.45525088Deceleration-4238
2024-08-02202.06210.38-2.77411603Deceleration-1514
2024-07-26212.21210.27-1.97391519Deceleration3113
2024-07-19209.35209.64-1.86457193Deceleration3621
2024-07-12220.69209.130.40418013Deceleration6254
2024-07-05214.51208.16-0.77544448Deceleration4835
2024-06-28218.30207.522.46411778Deceleration5744
2024-06-21217.47206.772.68659774Deceleration4528
2024-06-14208.98205.99-0.24454345Deceleration2915
2024-06-07216.27205.240.35521574Deceleration4221
2024-05-31210.46204.06-1.86650964Deceleration3119
2024-05-24209.35203.19-3.41525924Deceleration3016
2024-05-17208.34202.36-3.93930583Deceleration2914
2024-05-10218.85201.520.61570140Deceleration4624
2024-05-03205.02200.42-1.55429893Deceleration1925
2024-04-26205.91199.81-1.85560664Deceleration3027
2024-04-19205.56199.140.46446260Upward Expansion4227
2024-04-12206.09198.62-0.14544111Upward Expansion6046
2024-04-05214.23198.102.65431066Upward Expansion6660
2024-03-29226.74196.987.07412470Upward Expansion8590
2024-03-22220.84195.276.33882765Upward Expansion8189
2024-03-15218.60193.757.23742419Upward Expansion8593
2024-03-08214.05192.266.19410261Upward Expansion7784
2024-03-01211.72190.985.92517014Upward Expansion7780
2024-02-23211.10189.657.86417217Upward Expansion8275
2024-02-16204.48188.516.64417382Upward Expansion7052
2024-02-09202.88187.507.32574295Upward Expansion7053
2024-02-02197.87186.395.07543778Upward Expansion5950
2024-01-26198.94185.385.67395209Upward Expansion6155
2024-01-19201.00184.539.57379179Upward Expansion6957
2024-01-12199.39183.507.96394121Upward Expansion6950
2024-01-05199.03182.548.74328863Upward Expansion7149
2023-12-29193.31181.554.75143385Upward Expansion5945
2023-12-22194.03181.225.43411238Upward Expansion6263
2023-12-15191.53180.693.801013977Upward Expansion6169
2023-12-08195.37180.165.85525733Upward Expansion7073
2023-12-01195.73179.348.45920878Upward Expansion7361
2023-11-24193.94178.3910.13536625Deceleration7142
2023-11-17186.70177.527.01544453Deceleration4424
2023-11-10180.62176.718.38742965Deceleration3418
2023-11-03184.64176.0111.38681854Deceleration3825
2023-10-27184.29175.1315.28439701Upward Expansion4331
2023-10-20183.12174.1914.04545820Upward Expansion5641
Price vs TrendAbove+5.7%
Trend directionRising+2.7%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+13.1%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+2.7%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.3%
Relative strength directionImproving+5.8%
Price momentumPositive+1.3%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.33×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

72 / ±100

+13.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

44 /100

+2.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HNR1 Directional State ↗ HNR1 Momentum Intelligence ↗
Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance16
Rotation Up55
Upward Expansion78
Deceleration60
Rotation Down21
Downward Expansion5

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 47%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 12%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-07-242026-10-09Developing+3.9%
Downward Expansion2026-06-262026-07-17New+7.0%
Rotation Down2026-06-052026-06-19New+3.1%
Upward Expansion2026-04-102026-05-29Developing-10.5%
Rotation Up2026-03-202026-04-03New+3.8%
Balance2026-03-062026-03-13New+5.0%
Downward Expansion2026-01-302026-02-27Developing+8.0%
Balance2025-11-282026-01-23Developing-9.6%
Downward Expansion2025-09-192025-11-21Developing+3.7%
Rotation Down2025-08-222025-09-12New-1.1%
Deceleration2025-06-272025-08-15Developing-4.3%
Upward Expansion2025-03-142025-06-20Established+1.2%
Balance2025-02-212025-03-07New+8.2%
Upward Expansion2025-01-312025-02-14New-1.5%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing34
Stage 2 · Advancing90
Stage 3 · Distribution57
Stage 4 · Declining10

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
76/100
Current Relative Strength
5.29
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+1.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-4.0%
Financial Services regime cohort
60th percentile15 in cohort
Test HNR1 trend persistence
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.79×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.33×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HNR1 Volume & Price ↗
Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 257.64rising
Slow Activity EUR 250.55rising
Trend Reference EUR 248.91+5.7% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 232.66+13.1% close margin
Structural low EUR 225.60shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.1%
Annualized volatility +16.3%
From structural high -1.7%
From structural low +18.7%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^GDAXI Regime survived Read
Near term37+0.7%-10.0% to +11.3%+56.8%+56.8%-1.0%+70.3%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate13-0.6%-10.6% to +20.1%+46.2%+46.2%+0.0%+46.2%Usable descriptive sample
Extended8+4.3%-9.2% to +10.9%+62.5%+62.5%-4.7%+25.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle4+11.4%-2.7% to +42.0%+75.0%+75.0%+8.7%+50.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context