Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Defensive

PFGC Stage Analysis

Performance Food Group Co

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 94.88Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -28−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 55/100directional strength

Maturity 9/100lifecycle context

Confidence 82/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +11.4%USD 85.13 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	94.88	98.75	-10.76	5716028	Rotation Down	-28	55
2026-10-02	93.85	98.53	-11.11	6750001	Rotation Down	-30	66
2026-09-25	91.55	98.31	-13.87	6500736	Rotation Down	-39	69
2026-09-18	91.93	98.50	-12.91	10101185	Deceleration	-41	53
2026-09-11	93.94	98.70	-11.57	5613199	Deceleration	-20	37
2026-09-04	98.63	98.83	-8.37	6761316	Deceleration	5	23
2026-08-28	100.85	98.69	-6.67	6603489	Deceleration	25	22
2026-08-21	104.98	98.51	-2.75	7894247	Upward Expansion	46	35
2026-08-14	107.25	98.14	-2.30	13611068	Upward Expansion	61	49
2026-08-07	114.90	97.82	4.60	6786471	Upward Expansion	71	63
2026-07-31	114.39	97.02	7.72	7510882	Upward Expansion	72	67
2026-07-24	111.49	96.14	5.99	7942976	Upward Expansion	67	81
2026-07-17	111.76	95.48	5.54	10105574	Upward Expansion	69	86
2026-07-10	113.36	94.81	5.27	6844082	Upward Expansion	78	90
2026-07-03	113.09	94.14	6.40	6836374	Upward Expansion	85	90
2026-06-26	110.44	93.42	6.28	8238189	Upward Expansion	86	85
2026-06-19	103.62	92.98	-2.55	5876915	Upward Expansion	75	76
2026-06-12	104.07	92.74	-1.32	7266881	Rotation Up	79	70
2026-06-05	97.12	92.44	-7.46	7648689	Rotation Up	25	43
2026-05-29	98.19	92.50	-8.99	5957029	Balance	29	34
2026-05-22	93.63	92.45	-12.24	8173888	Balance	14	17
2026-05-15	95.97	92.67	-9.53	9307893	Balance	13	16
2026-05-08	93.12	92.84	-12.27	13777758	Balance	-15	16
2026-05-01	88.69	93.07	-14.76	7745396	Downward Expansion	-29	19
2026-04-24	90.28	93.54	-12.70	13471622	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2026-04-17	93.50	94.00	-9.34	6003136	Downward Expansion	-43	26
2026-04-10	89.00	94.40	-9.98	7570632	Downward Expansion	-59	61
2026-04-03	84.01	94.97	-12.10	6320426	Downward Expansion	-60	70
2026-03-27	83.01	95.68	-10.39	6213050	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2026-03-20	81.03	96.29	-14.59	8251151	Balance	-72	67
2026-03-13	88.18	96.99	-8.88	9182221	Balance	-55	40
2026-03-06	87.46	97.32	-11.03	8125390	Balance	-46	19
2026-02-27	97.06	97.63	-3.31	7499842	Balance	-8	12
2026-02-20	97.86	97.75	-3.04	8092819	Balance	-5	11
2026-02-13	98.00	97.78	-1.76	16894500	Balance	-15	12
2026-02-06	94.40	97.81	-6.60	29926582	Balance	-28	19
2026-01-30	95.45	97.82	-5.82	11196273	Downward Expansion	-32	19
2026-01-23	93.89	97.60	-7.16	10518383	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2026-01-16	97.61	97.39	-3.97	9033771	Downward Expansion	-49	32
2026-01-09	90.91	97.00	-10.96	14317192	Rotation Down	-61	59
2026-01-02	88.05	96.84	-12.57	3670578	Rotation Down	-47	59
2025-12-26	91.76	96.85	-10.01	3601430	Rotation Down	-37	53
2025-12-19	91.66	96.77	-8.96	9702250	Rotation Down	-40	48
2025-12-12	93.15	96.54	-7.48	9478440	Rotation Down	-26	38
2025-12-05	91.50	96.37	-9.78	7891011	Deceleration	-36	45
2025-11-28	97.07	96.14	-4.18	6695207	Deceleration	3	16
2025-11-21	96.65	95.65	-1.15	5940667	Deceleration	1	19
2025-11-14	95.08	95.08	-4.65	5786595	Deceleration	-6	18
2025-11-07	98.73	94.44	-0.87	8626816	Deceleration	14	15
2025-10-31	96.74	93.67	-4.43	4621811	Deceleration	18	19
2025-10-24	100.26	92.89	-0.27	2585396	Deceleration	36	22
2025-10-17	101.23	92.12	2.70	4849336	Upward Expansion	42	30
2025-10-10	99.95	91.31	3.27	5538740	Upward Expansion	48	40
2025-10-03	102.57	90.52	3.57	5488072	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-09-26	104.30	89.70	6.69	5311437	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-09-19	105.51	89.06	7.89	11857358	Upward Expansion	70	71
2025-09-12	105.88	88.28	9.92	8421237	Upward Expansion	76	79
2025-09-05	105.42	87.65	11.58	5771085	Upward Expansion	81	70
2025-08-29	101.40	86.97	8.10	7506675	Upward Expansion	71	64
2025-08-22	101.91	86.60	8.93	7407971	Upward Expansion	77	68
2025-08-15	98.05	86.17	5.44	12864178	Upward Expansion	65	78
2025-08-08	96.94	85.82	5.53	11334264	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-08-01	100.50	85.40	12.54	7096163	Upward Expansion	81	92
2025-07-25	98.82	84.87	8.50	6182219	Upward Expansion	81	90
2025-07-18	98.78	84.41	10.56	15675337	Upward Expansion	85	84
2025-07-11	94.81	83.93	7.33	8352938	Rotation Up	80	65
2025-07-04	88.87	83.72	0.83	2860739	Rotation Up	35	27
2025-06-27	87.47	83.77	1.28	5176687	Rotation Up	28	24
2025-06-20	85.92	83.79	3.21	3785835	Rotation Up	19	28
2025-06-13	86.20	83.85	3.65	3519010	Rotation Up	22	41
2025-06-06	88.29	83.75	6.05	4461653	Rotation Up	28	52
2025-05-30	89.56	83.67	9.59	6161590	Rotation Up	32	43
2025-05-23	84.66	83.38	5.70	4928093	Balance	17	27
2025-05-16	88.09	83.31	7.38	6472458	Balance	19	26
2025-05-09	84.41	83.15	8.44	9430273	Downward Expansion	-16	17
2025-05-02	82.59	83.04	5.82	5064361	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2025-04-25	79.42	82.91	4.87	5224489	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2025-04-18	76.00	82.87	5.07	3085736	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2025-04-11	75.48	82.91	2.94	7492006	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2025-04-04	73.28	82.84	5.67	6989787	Rotation Down	-76	78
2025-03-28	77.34	82.78	1.53	5082731	Rotation Down	-39	65
2025-03-21	76.76	82.69	-0.80	6083875	Rotation Down	-43	64
2025-03-14	76.50	82.62	-0.79	7434189	Balance	-39	49
2025-03-07	77.93	82.52	-1.44	7677351	Balance	-32	29
2025-02-28	85.14	82.10	4.14	5211310	Balance	16	15
2025-02-21	81.85	81.49	-0.96	5125448	Upward Expansion	8	6
2025-02-14	87.09	80.98	3.49	7490711	Upward Expansion	52	36
2025-02-07	85.09	80.25	2.49	9471538	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-01-31	90.31	79.54	8.54	4790417	Upward Expansion	68	47
2025-01-24	88.85	78.66	5.67	4385153	Deceleration	63	39
2025-01-17	87.73	77.90	6.14	4887055	Deceleration	49	29
2025-01-10	84.40	77.23	5.08	2971809	Deceleration	38	24
2025-01-03	84.40	76.67	2.99	3225102	Upward Expansion	44	32
2024-12-27	85.06	76.18	3.13	1711355	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-12-20	84.39	75.66	2.93	6170223	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-12-13	88.65	75.17	6.06	6443479	Upward Expansion	68	70
2024-12-06	90.19	74.68	7.33	5686216	Upward Expansion	79	82
2024-11-29	88.24	74.04	5.98	2795472	Upward Expansion	78	74
2024-11-22	87.59	73.41	6.48	3876764	Upward Expansion	81	70
2024-11-15	83.20	72.78	2.91	5615539	Upward Expansion	65	67
2024-11-08	85.97	72.29	4.16	8938620	Upward Expansion	83	82
2024-11-01	80.86	71.74	2.68	4466178	Upward Expansion	67	84
2024-10-25	82.55	71.38	3.38	3461781	Upward Expansion	75	89
2024-10-18	83.24	71.12	3.35	4041212	Upward Expansion	84	92
2024-10-11	81.24	70.87	1.86	3841233	Upward Expansion	81	87
2024-10-04	78.65	70.71	-0.06	3949383	Rotation Up	76	78
2024-09-27	78.21	70.63	-0.26	5058635	Rotation Up	51	59
2024-09-20	77.01	70.58	-1.27	4685426	Rotation Up	50	59
2024-09-13	73.51	70.53	-4.50	3748299	Rotation Up	24	52
2024-09-06	71.50	70.57	-3.48	3185411	Rotation Up	22	45
2024-08-30	74.64	70.58	-3.44	3882304	Rotation Up	34	49
2024-08-23	74.71	70.57	-3.19	4106954	Downward Expansion	35	34
2024-08-16	73.48	70.44	-3.54	8215420	Downward Expansion	-4	13
2024-08-09	65.33	70.36	-10.98	5368241	Downward Expansion	-47	30
2024-08-02	66.70	70.52	-9.22	5605685	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2024-07-26	66.57	70.63	-11.45	6993945	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2024-07-19	65.30	70.72	-14.00	5572100	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2024-07-12	63.87	70.85	-17.77	5184987	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2024-07-05	63.74	70.93	-17.39	6331793	Downward Expansion	-81	79
2024-06-28	66.11	70.99	-12.98	7824956	Rotation Down	-71	64
2024-06-21	67.57	70.96	-11.30	5724855	Rotation Down	-36	47
2024-06-14	67.76	70.82	-10.62	3432332	Balance	-38	39
2024-06-07	69.50	70.64	-6.88	4319377	Balance	-15	10
2024-05-31	69.60	70.35	-5.57	3590303	Balance	-4	8
2024-05-24	69.67	70.06	-5.89	4759766	Deceleration	12	10
2024-05-17	74.00	69.57	-0.12	7215904	Deceleration	32	17
2024-05-10	70.98	68.95	-2.59	8251446	Deceleration	-3	23
2024-05-03	69.21	68.38	-3.41	8330043	Deceleration	-6	32
2024-04-26	68.85	67.92	-3.57	3819135	Deceleration	-9	32
2024-04-19	68.48	67.58	-1.78	5971507	Deceleration	-10	27
2024-04-12	69.22	67.30	-3.96	4038402	Deceleration	15	22
2024-04-05	70.30	67.01	-4.05	7501588	Upward Expansion	40	32
2024-03-29	74.64	66.64	0.79	3120885	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-03-22	75.87	66.22	2.72	3236610	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-03-15	76.24	65.73	5.52	4803675	Upward Expansion	68	74
2024-03-08	76.28	65.29	5.62	2952796	Upward Expansion	73	77
2024-03-01	76.78	64.68	6.16	4044998	Upward Expansion	81	71
2024-02-23	75.61	64.11	5.63	2452439	Upward Expansion	81	81
2024-02-16	74.61	63.61	5.96	4771511	Upward Expansion	80	70
2024-02-09	71.71	63.19	1.50	7647443	Upward Expansion	67	71
2024-02-02	74.47	62.80	6.82	5459178	Upward Expansion	90	92
2024-01-26	70.80	62.33	3.01	2691186	Upward Expansion	71	83
2024-01-19	70.90	61.98	4.15	2232595	Upward Expansion	75	88
2024-01-12	70.33	61.54	4.49	2962151	Upward Expansion	76	89
2024-01-05	70.05	61.08	5.94	4693736	Upward Expansion	79	90
2023-12-29	69.15	60.58	2.85	2569428	Upward Expansion	79	87
2023-12-22	69.17	60.18	3.11	4572781	Upward Expansion	85	88
2023-12-15	66.30	59.77	-0.43	6187386	Upward Expansion	76	81
2023-12-08	65.45	59.46	0.39	5860694	Upward Expansion	76	80
2023-12-01	65.30	59.29	0.24	4535941	Upward Expansion	77	76
2023-11-24	63.44	59.18	-1.93	2180001	Downward Expansion	69	51
2023-11-17	62.20	59.16	-3.00	4518617	Downward Expansion	14	23
2023-11-10	60.99	59.15	-2.84	6368461	Downward Expansion	-18	11
2023-11-03	60.65	59.13	-2.13	4288236	Downward Expansion	-41	31
2023-10-27	55.02	59.10	-6.04	3182737	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2023-10-20	55.63	59.28	-7.41	4067688	Downward Expansion	-62	68

Price vs TrendBelow-3.9%

Trend directionRising+1.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+11.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-27.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-16.0%

Price momentumPositive+6.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.36×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-28 / ±100

-7.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

55 /100

+18.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PFGC Directional State ↗ PFGC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance27

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion26

Deceleration52

Rotation Down68

Downward Expansion53

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 18%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	+3.6%
Deceleration	2026-08-28	2026-09-18	New	-8.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-08-21	Developing	+1.3%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-06-12	New	+7.2%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-05-29	New	+5.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-05-01	Developing	+6.8%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-03-20	Developing	-14.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-01-30	New	-2.2%
Rotation Down	2025-12-12	2026-01-09	Developing	-2.4%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-12-05	Developing	-8.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-10-17	Established	+2.5%
Rotation Up	2025-05-30	2025-07-11	Developing	+5.9%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-05-23	New	-3.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-09	Developing	+11.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing33

Stage 2 · Advancing35

Stage 3 · Distribution70

Stage 4 · Declining65

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: -10.76
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +6.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.3%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 75th percentile12 in cohort

Test PFGC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.76×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.36×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PFGC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 93.48falling

Slow Activity USD 101.12falling

Trend Reference USD 98.75-3.9% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 85.13+11.4% close margin

Structural low USD 86.31shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +25.0%

From structural high -19.2%

From structural low +17.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	+1.4%-9.0% to +16.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+4.5%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+13.0%-5.3% to +33.4%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+7.8%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+24.9%-3.8% to +37.5%	+80.0%	+20.0%	+15.6%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+23.4%-2.4% to +27.2%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+7.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PFGC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map