Weekly structural research · TWO · Consumer Defensive

4154 Stage Analysis

Raku Co., Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 12.45Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -47−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 35/100directional strength

Maturity 28/100lifecycle context

Confidence 94/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -29.2%TWD 17.59 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	12.45	12.71	-35.60	37000	Downward Expansion	-47	35
2026-10-02	11.25	12.63	-41.95	87001	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2026-09-25	11.85	12.63	-39.61	42000	Downward Expansion	-53	27
2026-09-18	11.65	12.63	-40.84	99100	Downward Expansion	-47	23
2026-09-11	12.50	12.68	-36.49	0	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2026-09-04	12.50	12.71	-38.29	0	Downward Expansion	-33	20
2026-08-28	12.50	12.76	-39.28	5000	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2026-08-21	12.20	12.82	-40.59	50000	Downward Expansion	-54	40
2026-08-14	12.20	12.96	-42.51	32000	Downward Expansion	-56	47
2026-08-07	11.30	13.01	-45.95	9000	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2026-07-31	11.50	13.14	-44.78	5000	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2026-07-24	12.35	13.29	-42.67	4000	Downward Expansion	-55	51
2026-07-17	11.85	13.40	-44.86	7000	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2026-07-10	11.80	13.53	-49.41	82000	Balance	-59	47
2026-07-03	12.30	13.67	-50.10	102293	Balance	-54	32
2026-06-26	12.95	13.77	-46.00	14171	Balance	-43	19
2026-06-19	12.75	13.87	-50.00	80020	Balance	-35	15
2026-06-12	13.75	14.00	-44.39	8000	Balance	-13	7
2026-06-05	13.50	14.11	-47.52	87101	Downward Expansion	-30	12
2026-05-29	13.10	14.23	-49.66	136708	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2026-05-22	13.90	14.38	-44.54	79000	Downward Expansion	-27	17
2026-05-15	13.30	14.51	-46.49	342000	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2026-05-08	12.30	14.66	-51.87	184504	Downward Expansion	-43	22
2026-05-01	13.00	14.83	-46.77	191245	Downward Expansion	-18	15
2026-04-24	14.30	14.99	-42.63	157380	Downward Expansion	-15	24
2026-04-17	13.90	15.11	-42.14	146075	Downward Expansion	-20	29
2026-04-10	14.45	15.25	-38.54	37000	Downward Expansion	-25	24
2026-04-03	14.50	15.37	-33.92	146034	Downward Expansion	-39	30
2026-03-27	14.95	15.49	-33.87	215260	Downward Expansion	-53	50
2026-03-20	10.35	15.60	-55.48	19016	Downward Expansion	-79	91
2026-03-13	10.05	15.86	-57.41	126380	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2026-03-06	11.25	16.14	-53.40	39875	Downward Expansion	-88	94
2026-02-27	11.95	16.38	-53.67	133179	Downward Expansion	-87	92
2026-02-13	13.25	16.61	-46.64	53210	Downward Expansion	-78	82
2026-02-06	13.30	16.80	-44.28	38173	Downward Expansion	-81	62
2026-01-30	13.95	16.99	-42.68	173004	Downward Expansion	-77	59
2026-01-23	14.45	17.22	-40.71	33095	Downward Expansion	-72	54
2026-01-16	16.20	17.37	-32.65	57000	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2026-01-09	13.80	17.45	-40.69	51140	Downward Expansion	-90	86
2026-01-02	15.15	17.61	-33.10	38000	Downward Expansion	-78	72
2025-12-26	16.00	17.74	-27.56	36000	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2025-12-19	15.55	17.83	-27.53	12000	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2025-12-12	15.90	17.94	-27.58	46380	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2025-12-05	15.90	18.06	-27.37	42000	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2025-11-28	15.30	18.14	-29.67	31093	Downward Expansion	-84	83
2025-11-21	16.10	18.31	-23.16	42000	Downward Expansion	-76	71
2025-11-14	16.50	18.43	-24.35	24000	Downward Expansion	-70	58
2025-11-07	17.05	18.54	-22.87	28034	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2025-10-31	17.30	18.60	-23.67	27010	Downward Expansion	-58	34
2025-10-24	17.50	18.67	-21.20	16010	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2025-10-17	17.70	18.75	-19.93	25000	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2025-10-10	17.90	18.89	-19.40	10000	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2025-10-03	17.50	19.03	-20.06	62000	Downward Expansion	-60	36
2025-09-26	17.65	19.14	-16.14	42000	Downward Expansion	-57	33
2025-09-19	18.05	19.21	-14.63	131000	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2025-09-12	17.90	19.30	-15.31	197228	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2025-09-05	18.10	19.50	-11.22	134000	Downward Expansion	-55	33
2025-08-29	18.10	19.55	-10.68	43158	Downward Expansion	-56	46
2025-08-22	18.40	19.43	-7.84	54060	Downward Expansion	-54	49
2025-08-15	18.20	19.30	-11.32	102001	Downward Expansion	-59	52
2025-08-08	18.20	19.18	-10.69	19140	Balance	-32	40
2025-08-01	18.50	19.06	-7.54	12452	Balance	-26	22
2025-07-25	19.00	18.92	-5.25	32007	Deceleration	12	9
2025-07-18	18.95	18.76	-5.96	74005	Deceleration	12	9
2025-07-11	18.95	18.71	-3.63	204302	Deceleration	22	12
2025-07-04	20.65	18.66	5.84	254000	Deceleration	42	19
2025-06-27	19.00	18.59	-2.69	72690	Deceleration	7	8
2025-06-20	18.75	18.59	-1.85	70200	Deceleration	6	15
2025-06-13	18.65	18.56	-2.57	51000	Deceleration	4	14
2025-06-06	19.10	18.55	1.52	51000	Deceleration	11	12
2025-05-30	18.55	18.51	0.02	23000	Deceleration	6	11
2025-05-23	19.00	18.52	0.99	38000	Deceleration	14	9
2025-05-16	19.35	18.51	1.90	41690	Deceleration	17	9
2025-05-09	18.30	18.52	0.62	81001	Deceleration	21	11
2025-05-02	20.30	18.57	12.16	42443	Deceleration	32	16
2025-04-25	19.90	18.58	15.07	76000	Deceleration	29	18
2025-04-18	19.80	18.57	17.36	109060	Deceleration	32	20
2025-04-11	18.65	18.54	9.99	173013	Deceleration	35	18
2025-04-04	19.50	18.52	5.45	192478	Rotation Up	44	31
2025-03-28	19.85	18.57	5.70	83000	Rotation Up	58	43
2025-03-21	21.90	18.61	13.16	360358	Rotation Up	39	40
2025-03-14	22.25	18.58	15.98	465058	Rotation Up	46	56
2025-03-07	20.75	18.56	5.10	428569	Rotation Up	25	53
2025-02-28	19.60	18.62	-3.25	188936	Rotation Up	24	45
2025-02-21	21.00	18.72	0.11	263248	Rotation Up	33	46
2025-02-14	23.70	18.77	15.16	432572	Rotation Up	34	40
2025-02-07	19.60	18.74	-6.41	869707	Downward Expansion	-18	21
2025-01-24	14.50	18.78	-31.42	26000	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2025-01-17	14.45	18.97	-31.35	37000	Downward Expansion	-69	88
2025-01-10	14.75	19.22	-30.36	11000	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2025-01-03	14.50	19.39	-32.05	191000	Downward Expansion	-76	90
2024-12-27	14.30	19.57	-34.88	78000	Downward Expansion	-85	92
2024-12-20	14.10	19.73	-34.43	176000	Downward Expansion	-89	82
2024-12-13	17.50	19.89	-21.42	58000	Downward Expansion	-64	44
2024-12-06	17.65	19.94	-22.07	64000	Downward Expansion	-64	40
2024-11-29	18.45	19.97	-15.92	20000	Downward Expansion	-53	33
2024-11-22	18.90	19.99	-17.04	38000	Downward Expansion	-57	50
2024-11-15	18.00	20.00	-20.78	56000	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2024-11-08	18.20	20.04	-23.13	69000	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-11-01	18.00	20.08	-22.01	73000	Deceleration	-36	39
2024-10-25	19.00	20.13	-20.47	44000	Deceleration	-25	20
2024-10-18	18.65	20.15	-22.82	143000	Deceleration	-30	18
2024-10-11	19.40	20.22	-18.05	70000	Deceleration	-14	10
2024-10-04	19.90	20.29	-14.04	108000	Deceleration	-11	13
2024-09-27	20.60	20.33	-13.54	906000	Deceleration	-14	22
2024-09-20	19.70	20.37	-15.46	117000	Deceleration	-16	30
2024-09-13	18.85	20.42	-18.29	304000	Balance	-22	26
2024-09-06	17.95	20.49	-21.74	715000	Balance	-20	23
2024-08-30	21.00	20.61	-12.80	0	Upward Expansion	32	20
2024-08-23	21.00	20.62	-13.12	88371	Upward Expansion	37	18
2024-08-16	21.15	20.62	-13.63	74563	Upward Expansion	44	27
2024-08-09	21.58	20.63	-8.81	166386	Upward Expansion	59	41
2024-08-02	22.52	20.62	-5.77	107702	Rotation Up	64	67
2024-07-26	22.60	20.60	-7.37	82159	Rotation Up	43	64
2024-07-19	22.74	20.58	-9.60	395605	Rotation Up	39	59
2024-07-12	22.52	20.56	-14.58	339682	Rotation Up	41	51
2024-07-05	20.93	20.54	-20.34	88371	Balance	19	28
2024-06-28	20.35	20.56	-22.30	216097	Balance	-8	23
2024-06-21	21.73	20.63	-19.59	354180	Downward Expansion	2	17
2024-06-14	19.99	20.52	-25.08	72492	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2024-06-07	19.99	20.49	-24.51	91823	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2024-05-31	18.90	20.48	-28.14	105631	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2024-05-24	18.90	20.57	-31.17	79395	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-05-17	19.05	20.54	-31.35	144294	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2024-05-10	18.68	20.48	-32.64	103559	Rotation Down	-72	74
2024-05-03	18.90	20.45	-32.48	21401	Rotation Down	-45	67
2024-04-26	19.19	20.48	-32.51	35208	Rotation Down	-40	63
2024-04-19	19.19	20.55	-32.23	55920	Rotation Down	-42	64
2024-04-12	19.41	20.64	-37.07	80776	Rotation Down	-31	55
2024-04-05	19.48	20.77	-37.02	85611	Balance	-29	45
2024-03-29	19.63	20.91	-38.03	94585	Balance	-27	30
2024-03-22	20.86	21.06	-35.63	66968	Balance	14	7
2024-03-15	21.29	21.01	-34.27	376964	Balance	31	15
2024-03-08	21.29	21.01	-36.28	221621	Balance	40	18
2024-03-01	21.65	20.92	-34.02	111155	Balance	45	20
2024-02-23	21.15	20.73	-36.92	175363	Balance	29	12
2024-02-16	21.22	20.53	-37.20	100800	Balance	30	13
2024-02-09	21.44	20.46	-36.24	32449	Balance	31	16
2024-02-02	21.36	20.68	-37.71	898226	Balance	33	17
2024-01-26	21.00	21.09	-39.91	186410	Balance	8	7
2024-01-19	21.22	21.62	-39.81	58683	Balance	3	6
2024-01-12	21.36	22.15	-40.42	91133	Balance	-4	11
2024-01-05	22.02	22.72	-40.19	109083	Balance	-1	13
2023-12-29	22.09	23.41	-42.85	207813	Balance	-3	15
2023-12-22	22.09	24.07	-43.20	250618	Balance	-4	18
2023-12-15	21.73	24.72	-45.65	158793	Downward Expansion	-13	13
2023-12-08	21.58	25.44	-46.35	816068	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2023-12-01	22.60	26.19	-45.35	691103	Downward Expansion	-33	25
2023-11-24	18.25	26.91	-56.42	73181	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2023-11-17	19.05	27.80	-55.48	125654	Downward Expansion	-53	42
2023-11-10	19.77	28.68	-53.58	167769	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2023-11-03	21.73	29.44	-49.87	773951	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2023-10-27	17.82	30.31	-59.08	61445	Downward Expansion	-70	84
2023-10-20	17.24	31.37	-62.22	116679	Downward Expansion	-76	77
2023-10-13	17.96	32.55	-62.45	129106	Downward Expansion	-73	58
2023-10-06	19.84	33.66	-58.88	313445	Downward Expansion	-65	49

Price vs TrendBelow-2.0%

Trend directionFalling-3.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-29.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-35.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+13.8%

Price momentumNegative-13.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.63×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-47 / ±100

-17.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

35 /100

+14.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

4154 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance34

Rotation Up18

Upward Expansion7

Deceleration44

Rotation Down52

Downward Expansion76

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 3%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 55%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-10-09	Established	+5.1%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-07-10	Developing	-14.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-15	2026-06-05	Extended	-25.8%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-08-08	New	-1.6%
Deceleration	2025-04-11	2025-07-25	Established	+1.9%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-04-04	Developing	-17.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-02-07	Established	+7.7%
Deceleration	2024-09-20	2024-11-01	Developing	-8.6%
Balance	2024-09-06	2024-09-13	New	+5.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-09	2024-08-30	New	-2.7%
Rotation Up	2024-07-12	2024-08-02	New	+0.0%
Balance	2024-06-28	2024-07-05	New	+2.8%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-17	2024-06-21	Developing	+14.1%
Rotation Down	2024-04-12	2024-05-10	Developing	-3.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing78

Stage 2 · Advancing6

Stage 3 · Distribution20

Stage 4 · Declining94

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: -35.60
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -13.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -53.1%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 49th percentile37 in cohort

Test 4154 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.83×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.63×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 4154 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 11.91falling

Slow Activity TWD 12.36falling

Trend Reference TWD 12.71-2.0% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 17.59-29.2% close margin

Structural low TWD 11.05shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.4%

Annualized volatility +37.0%

From structural high -35.2%

From structural low +32.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	38	-0.4%-52.7% to +92.2%	+42.1%	+52.6%	-4.6%	+84.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	-3.3%-41.3% to +124.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-18.3%	+58.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	-6.7%-40.5% to +77.6%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-27.5%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-16.6%-61.4% to +91.0%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-42.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

4154 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map