Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

BAH Stage Analysis

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 72.95Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 2−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 7/100directional strength

Maturity 15/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -34.8%USD 111.92 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	72.95	74.60	-17.17	7479557	Balance	2	7
2026-09-18	77.07	74.77	-12.16	8135009	Balance	21	18
2026-09-11	75.90	74.76	-14.30	7545671	Balance	17	18
2026-09-04	72.80	74.85	-19.21	7575031	Downward Expansion	14	21
2026-08-28	75.24	75.35	-17.25	7000436	Downward Expansion	16	26
2026-08-21	77.05	75.75	-15.79	7891875	Downward Expansion	-8	22
2026-08-14	77.46	76.53	-17.40	9709791	Downward Expansion	-8	20
2026-08-07	75.48	77.15	-20.26	8057657	Downward Expansion	-25	19
2026-07-31	69.19	77.79	-25.19	14461454	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2026-07-24	71.98	78.27	-22.30	14036059	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2026-07-17	64.72	78.68	-31.36	9747309	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2026-07-10	62.29	79.32	-35.78	10201540	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2026-07-03	62.45	80.29	-35.57	11468803	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2026-06-26	62.22	81.10	-35.25	17963558	Downward Expansion	-82	75
2026-06-19	66.36	81.77	-33.36	11646369	Downward Expansion	-76	43
2026-06-12	77.41	82.21	-22.40	7312372	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2026-06-05	78.88	82.35	-21.22	9077410	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2026-05-29	78.58	82.57	-24.14	9654097	Downward Expansion	-53	37
2026-05-22	78.08	82.80	-24.30	8896028	Downward Expansion	-55	49
2026-05-15	72.12	83.17	-30.22	11170576	Downward Expansion	-72	61
2026-05-08	76.46	83.97	-27.02	6705993	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2026-05-01	77.72	84.59	-25.20	5312048	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2026-04-24	78.14	85.39	-25.07	7644603	Downward Expansion	-43	23
2026-04-17	81.15	86.02	-22.82	5056602	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2026-04-10	77.58	86.65	-23.85	7609712	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2026-04-03	82.50	87.47	-17.01	7509456	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2026-03-27	77.90	88.06	-19.83	6055424	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2026-03-20	79.34	89.01	-20.78	16261933	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2026-03-13	77.68	89.95	-24.40	10442011	Downward Expansion	-63	65
2026-03-06	81.27	90.93	-22.83	10407957	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2026-02-27	78.23	91.81	-27.88	18140264	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-02-20	76.63	92.76	-30.23	7299361	Downward Expansion	-70	49
2026-02-13	78.72	93.87	-28.14	12258195	Downward Expansion	-52	27
2026-02-06	87.68	94.80	-21.67	11939034	Downward Expansion	-15	16
2026-01-30	87.10	95.34	-23.08	20832485	Downward Expansion	-13	24
2026-01-23	100.71	95.98	-11.58	12182474	Downward Expansion	13	27
2026-01-16	95.95	95.96	-16.71	9279808	Downward Expansion	-12	14
2026-01-09	94.75	96.00	-18.82	10571950	Downward Expansion	-27	20
2026-01-02	83.62	96.20	-27.92	5669330	Downward Expansion	-49	34
2025-12-26	84.12	96.74	-29.00	7004713	Downward Expansion	-47	31
2025-12-19	83.99	97.37	-28.82	32060397	Downward Expansion	-51	36
2025-12-12	91.40	98.05	-23.24	16151432	Downward Expansion	-50	42
2025-12-05	86.70	99.16	-28.26	10982538	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2025-11-28	82.22	100.27	-32.53	6103746	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2025-11-21	79.58	101.39	-33.15	9482098	Downward Expansion	-81	91
2025-11-14	81.67	102.60	-33.58	9819946	Downward Expansion	-82	90
2025-11-07	85.58	103.55	-31.22	11369426	Downward Expansion	-77	85
2025-10-31	85.30	104.21	-33.74	19827588	Downward Expansion	-84	84
2025-10-24	89.44	104.89	-31.31	15955182	Downward Expansion	-80	72
2025-10-17	95.94	105.31	-26.17	7706946	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2025-10-10	95.06	105.47	-26.50	7197130	Downward Expansion	-72	65
2025-10-03	101.79	105.92	-24.11	8877040	Downward Expansion	-56	57
2025-09-26	96.96	106.29	-27.75	9847281	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2025-09-19	99.95	106.48	-26.63	10270803	Balance	-59	54
2025-09-12	102.38	106.77	-24.76	8584507	Balance	-40	37
2025-09-05	100.26	107.16	-25.96	7036193	Balance	-47	26
2025-08-29	106.39	107.93	-22.01	6401629	Balance	-12	7
2025-08-22	107.58	108.53	-21.95	5579893	Balance	-11	8
2025-08-15	106.98	109.23	-22.86	9314203	Balance	-21	15
2025-08-08	107.47	110.04	-22.39	7148053	Balance	-22	16
2025-08-01	106.81	110.71	-21.64	13361796	Balance	-25	17
2025-07-25	110.07	111.39	-21.81	12917760	Downward Expansion	-21	17
2025-07-18	106.45	111.88	-23.75	8778312	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2025-07-11	104.12	112.55	-25.62	7800348	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-07-04	106.06	113.40	-25.13	8153278	Downward Expansion	-58	54
2025-06-27	100.15	114.55	-28.69	10857954	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2025-06-20	97.34	115.97	-28.95	8417091	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2025-06-13	100.58	117.52	-27.38	9711417	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2025-06-06	99.98	118.97	-28.66	10959892	Balance	-55	45
2025-05-30	102.89	121.51	-26.03	11566957	Balance	-47	22
2025-05-23	104.38	123.88	-24.27	15021971	Balance	-29	19
2025-05-16	124.73	126.23	-12.57	7732952	Balance	7	22
2025-05-09	119.87	127.32	-12.01	6427286	Downward Expansion	-17	20
2025-05-02	116.02	128.47	-15.72	6690482	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2025-04-25	115.81	129.75	-13.91	11423421	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-04-18	110.08	131.08	-14.84	7039282	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2025-04-11	105.34	132.47	-20.09	17956295	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2025-04-04	105.75	133.98	-15.72	20727359	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2025-03-28	101.95	135.33	-26.48	9622033	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2025-03-21	100.85	137.02	-28.85	17649730	Downward Expansion	-77	65
2025-03-14	108.70	138.62	-23.47	10619085	Downward Expansion	-67	74
2025-03-07	112.79	139.72	-22.87	20983376	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2025-02-28	102.70	140.67	-32.35	17453184	Downward Expansion	-86	92
2025-02-21	108.75	141.84	-29.62	11158108	Downward Expansion	-84	89
2025-02-14	114.01	142.68	-27.94	10424778	Downward Expansion	-81	78
2025-02-07	123.32	143.86	-21.45	9834279	Downward Expansion	-65	46
2025-01-31	124.34	144.80	-21.39	12041330	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2025-01-24	128.62	145.53	-19.92	10700918	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2025-01-17	131.14	146.15	-17.40	7267540	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-01-10	127.68	146.72	-17.42	6782137	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2025-01-03	127.16	147.26	-19.58	5799314	Downward Expansion	-69	79
2024-12-27	124.96	147.85	-21.60	2545591	Rotation Down	-77	83
2024-12-20	126.45	148.53	-20.43	10202899	Rotation Down	-44	68
2024-12-13	129.60	149.35	-20.20	9224120	Rotation Down	-43	56
2024-12-06	140.47	149.87	-14.27	8917102	Deceleration	-29	39
2024-11-29	142.82	150.15	-12.27	5579108	Deceleration	-14	24
2024-11-22	143.83	150.08	-10.81	17261598	Upward Expansion	18	12
2024-11-15	143.99	149.90	-9.41	12731356	Upward Expansion	41	43
2024-11-08	176.27	149.62	8.40	8076527	Upward Expansion	83	92
2024-11-01	174.13	148.32	12.33	5409143	Upward Expansion	88	91
2024-10-25	174.76	147.19	11.44	5940360	Upward Expansion	92	85
2024-10-18	157.45	146.09	-0.35	4437621	Upward Expansion	68	60
2024-10-11	154.48	145.53	-1.45	4555948	Upward Expansion	61	57
2024-10-04	154.46	144.99	-0.45	3077850	Upward Expansion	63	58
2024-09-27	155.66	144.52	0.60	2632964	Upward Expansion	68	57
2024-09-20	151.67	144.04	-1.23	3071620	Balance	59	54
2024-09-13	150.80	143.72	-0.21	3397470	Balance	57	41
2024-09-06	146.11	143.32	0.77	2156337	Balance	37	28
2024-08-30	152.52	143.12	1.04	2497891	Balance	51	30
2024-08-23	148.83	142.55	-0.94	2687110	Balance	28	14
2024-08-16	141.85	142.23	-4.16	2933018	Balance	-11	22
2024-08-09	141.30	141.54	-0.67	4448752	Balance	-9	18
2024-08-02	137.83	140.91	-3.05	6324510	Balance	3	11
2024-07-26	133.87	140.23	-7.86	5323941	Upward Expansion	9	6
2024-07-19	149.39	139.82	1.92	2217269	Upward Expansion	58	39
2024-07-12	151.40	138.87	1.46	2011222	Deceleration	66	42
2024-07-05	146.26	137.78	-0.83	2121951	Deceleration	50	31
2024-06-28	147.33	136.88	1.94	4252234	Deceleration	56	34
2024-06-21	148.23	136.03	2.74	2919345	Upward Expansion	61	37
2024-06-14	143.99	135.15	0.69	2730935	Upward Expansion	55	40
2024-06-07	144.77	134.37	3.12	3127451	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-05-31	145.22	133.52	5.06	3747009	Upward Expansion	63	68
2024-05-24	151.23	132.57	9.34	3510335	Upward Expansion	80	80
2024-05-17	145.29	131.23	5.57	3744811	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-05-10	148.89	130.24	10.49	5046432	Deceleration	81	54
2024-05-03	140.48	129.31	6.76	3565786	Deceleration	48	29
2024-04-26	138.46	128.40	6.33	2473444	Deceleration	40	26
2024-04-19	135.61	127.24	7.32	2879167	Deceleration	42	29
2024-04-12	137.47	126.11	5.81	2672153	Upward Expansion	47	40
2024-04-05	140.08	125.04	6.60	2626868	Upward Expansion	59	49
2024-03-29	141.62	123.91	7.20	1862165	Upward Expansion	67	55
2024-03-22	140.83	122.81	7.43	2404941	Upward Expansion	66	58
2024-03-15	138.14	121.74	8.16	2573428	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-03-08	140.38	120.72	10.31	2753342	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-03-01	141.37	119.84	11.28	2834937	Upward Expansion	73	84
2024-02-23	142.07	118.99	13.35	2477318	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-02-16	138.90	118.06	13.11	3313760	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-02-09	139.95	117.07	14.04	2875275	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-02-02	135.43	115.97	12.36	5499475	Upward Expansion	85	90
2024-01-26	139.17	114.98	17.58	5181581	Upward Expansion	92	82
2024-01-19	121.21	113.85	4.02	2254710	Upward Expansion	57	37
2024-01-12	122.29	113.19	6.45	2555633	Upward Expansion	62	39
2024-01-05	117.67	112.53	4.59	2349064	Upward Expansion	43	29
2023-12-29	121.61	111.85	6.41	2233444	Upward Expansion	60	38
2023-12-22	120.74	111.04	5.99	2234477	Upward Expansion	60	41
2023-12-15	118.86	110.03	5.27	3699827	Upward Expansion	59	44
2023-12-08	119.12	108.97	7.99	3128389	Upward Expansion	63	54
2023-12-01	121.85	107.91	10.78	4031039	Upward Expansion	69	71
2023-11-24	121.84	106.76	11.80	1602129	Upward Expansion	75	73
2023-11-17	120.57	105.70	11.86	3812631	Upward Expansion	75	60
2023-11-10	119.36	104.78	13.39	2971857	Upward Expansion	73	58
2023-11-03	116.53	103.84	12.43	5181919	Upward Expansion	65	71
2023-10-27	111.17	102.95	13.54	6272353	Upward Expansion	57	67
2023-10-20	115.43	102.14	15.00	5275083	Upward Expansion	63	66
2023-10-13	121.16	101.14	18.00	4759837	Deceleration	79	52
2023-10-06	113.18	99.88	11.02	7203299	Deceleration	42	21

Price vs TrendBelow-2.2%

Trend directionFalling-5.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-34.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+11.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-17.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+18.1%

Price momentumNegative-6.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.26×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

2 / ±100

-13.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

7 /100

-19.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BAH Directional State ↗ BAH Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance62

Rotation Up39

Upward Expansion24

Deceleration33

Rotation Down22

Downward Expansion29

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 49%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-11	2026-09-25	New	-3.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-26	2026-09-04	Extended	-24.9%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-09-19	Developing	-6.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-07-25	Developing	+9.4%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-06-06	New	-19.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-05-09	Established	-5.7%
Rotation Down	2024-12-13	2024-12-27	New	-3.6%
Deceleration	2024-11-29	2024-12-06	New	-1.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-27	2024-11-22	Developing	-7.6%
Balance	2024-08-02	2024-09-20	Developing	+10.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-07-26	New	-10.4%
Deceleration	2024-06-28	2024-07-12	New	+2.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-17	2024-06-21	Developing	+2.0%
Deceleration	2024-04-19	2024-05-10	New	+9.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing77

Stage 2 · Advancing10

Stage 3 · Distribution13

Stage 4 · Declining90

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 22/100
Current Relative Strength: -17.17
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -28.3%
Industrials regime cohort: 38th percentile50 in cohort

Test BAH trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.75×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.26×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BAH Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 74.77falling

Slow Activity USD 73.30falling

Trend Reference USD 74.60-2.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 111.92-34.8% close margin

Structural low USD 59.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.9%

Annualized volatility +39.5%

From structural high -32.1%

From structural low +22.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+2.1%-19.4% to +10.7%	+63.6%	+63.6%	+2.8%	+36.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+6.4%-23.7% to +26.3%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+9.4%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+0.1%-34.5% to +29.2%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+17.0%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+3.4%-35.2% to +49.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-8.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BAH Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map