Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Defensive

2945 Stage Analysis

Simple Mart Retail Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 39.40Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -37−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 31/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 62/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +2.4%TWD 38.47 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	39.40	40.28	-26.28	28071	Rotation Down	-37	31
2026-10-02	40.00	40.24	-24.58	91058	Rotation Down	-18	29
2026-09-25	39.90	40.22	-24.83	274041	Rotation Down	-19	35
2026-09-18	40.00	40.26	-24.09	49000	Rotation Down	-19	37
2026-09-11	39.65	40.28	-23.90	70000	Balance	-24	36
2026-09-04	40.05	40.31	-24.59	11000	Balance	-15	20
2026-08-28	40.00	40.32	-25.12	11000	Upward Expansion	16	13
2026-08-21	40.30	40.23	-23.55	2000	Upward Expansion	26	12
2026-08-14	40.25	40.15	-25.38	9000	Upward Expansion	30	18
2026-08-07	41.70	40.01	-20.77	11000	Upward Expansion	56	28
2026-07-31	41.40	39.84	-20.09	6000	Upward Expansion	43	23
2026-07-24	41.20	39.68	-22.20	8000	Upward Expansion	52	28
2026-07-17	40.10	39.53	-23.32	19000	Upward Expansion	50	30
2026-07-10	41.30	39.42	-26.52	0	Upward Expansion	58	54
2026-07-03	41.90	39.26	-28.54	167026	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-06-26	41.48	39.08	-26.58	139000	Upward Expansion	62	59
2026-06-19	41.38	38.92	-30.49	142028	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-06-12	41.00	38.76	-28.36	129363	Deceleration	58	32
2026-06-05	40.52	38.62	-31.38	169016	Deceleration	42	19
2026-05-29	39.55	38.49	-33.29	44115	Deceleration	30	14
2026-05-22	39.50	38.39	-30.29	107587	Deceleration	32	15
2026-05-15	39.07	38.27	-29.96	106025	Upward Expansion	37	19
2026-05-08	39.99	38.16	-29.86	101000	Upward Expansion	51	35
2026-05-01	39.70	38.02	-26.38	54038	Upward Expansion	50	31
2026-04-24	40.23	37.89	-26.20	157176	Upward Expansion	54	33
2026-04-17	40.81	37.77	-21.65	71051	Deceleration	60	34
2026-04-10	39.99	37.64	-20.95	57200	Deceleration	43	24
2026-04-03	39.17	37.54	-16.46	61000	Deceleration	36	19
2026-03-27	39.17	37.44	-18.37	61011	Upward Expansion	40	21
2026-03-20	39.60	37.34	-19.05	109010	Upward Expansion	47	32
2026-03-13	38.44	37.24	-21.60	124200	Upward Expansion	59	44
2026-03-06	39.31	37.19	-20.85	149047	Upward Expansion	65	74
2026-02-27	41.19	37.08	-21.81	158055	Upward Expansion	80	89
2026-02-13	40.42	36.93	-19.57	95005	Upward Expansion	75	86
2026-02-06	40.56	36.82	-15.07	190250	Upward Expansion	84	86
2026-01-30	40.47	36.72	-16.31	985805	Upward Expansion	86	77
2026-01-23	37.14	36.60	-23.22	118235	Rotation Up	54	45
2026-01-16	38.10	36.60	-20.28	139016	Rotation Up	49	39
2026-01-09	35.98	36.54	-22.28	44000	Balance	-42	20
2026-01-02	36.56	36.54	-18.91	18003	Balance	19	12
2025-12-26	36.66	36.53	-16.79	30005	Balance	12	12
2025-12-19	36.66	36.52	-14.62	48000	Balance	10	9
2025-12-12	36.75	36.51	-16.26	40000	Balance	14	13
2025-12-05	36.66	36.50	-16.19	45010	Balance	11	12
2025-11-28	36.37	36.50	-16.25	64033	Balance	8	13
2025-11-21	36.80	36.49	-11.83	38000	Balance	18	22
2025-11-14	36.51	36.45	-15.91	49010	Balance	7	15
2025-11-07	36.75	36.41	-16.42	21000	Balance	11	12
2025-10-31	36.71	36.35	-18.58	96184	Rotation Down	2	5
2025-10-24	36.42	36.34	-17.51	20145	Rotation Down	-22	36
2025-10-17	35.79	36.35	-18.54	35300	Rotation Down	-29	47
2025-10-10	35.89	36.39	-18.68	41300	Balance	-16	38
2025-10-03	35.74	36.43	-17.75	83000	Balance	-21	29
2025-09-26	35.98	36.50	-13.73	41100	Balance	-14	7
2025-09-19	36.66	36.57	-12.48	37000	Balance	3	4
2025-09-12	36.66	36.60	-12.47	24003	Balance	2	2
2025-09-05	37.14	36.60	-8.18	17200	Balance	2	3
2025-08-29	36.08	36.58	-10.13	40119	Balance	-40	22
2025-08-22	36.27	36.58	-8.21	44182	Balance	-9	11
2025-08-15	36.61	36.61	-9.81	56000	Balance	0	7
2025-08-08	36.80	36.58	-8.52	34200	Balance	-3	6
2025-08-01	35.98	36.56	-8.67	45000	Balance	-15	9
2025-07-25	36.66	36.60	-6.98	22500	Rotation Up	15	34
2025-07-18	37.14	36.63	-6.03	23000	Rotation Up	16	40
2025-07-11	37.53	36.66	-2.48	52120	Balance	25	35
2025-07-04	37.14	36.69	-2.66	26000	Balance	14	12
2025-06-27	36.91	36.75	-3.49	53125	Balance	-9	5
2025-06-20	36.35	36.81	-2.70	51253	Balance	-40	18
2025-06-13	36.07	36.89	-3.71	31081	Balance	-34	16
2025-06-06	36.21	36.96	-1.75	34700	Balance	-29	14
2025-05-30	36.35	37.01	-0.21	13000	Downward Expansion	-29	17
2025-05-23	36.30	37.08	-1.91	18368	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2025-05-16	36.44	37.14	-2.67	21006	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2025-05-09	36.77	37.21	2.20	29000	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2025-05-02	36.12	37.25	0.76	28207	Downward Expansion	-60	60
2025-04-25	35.51	37.33	3.35	29027	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2025-04-18	35.28	37.45	4.91	106312	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2025-04-11	34.91	37.56	2.91	198654	Downward Expansion	-74	61
2025-04-04	36.40	37.70	-1.82	42000	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2025-03-28	36.81	37.82	-2.42	24050	Downward Expansion	-39	18
2025-03-21	37.09	37.93	-4.69	52381	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2025-03-14	36.95	38.03	-4.26	62004	Downward Expansion	-28	21
2025-03-07	37.93	38.12	-4.56	40003	Downward Expansion	-16	19
2025-02-28	38.16	38.20	-6.31	70344	Downward Expansion	-20	15
2025-02-21	37.32	38.28	-11.32	50001	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2025-02-14	36.81	38.37	-10.82	31000	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2025-02-07	36.40	38.46	-13.58	27020	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2025-01-24	36.12	38.56	-15.00	45015	Downward Expansion	-71	73
2025-01-17	37.14	38.68	-11.80	39011	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-01-10	35.93	38.76	-14.75	83002	Downward Expansion	-82	86
2025-01-03	36.21	38.89	-14.35	46015	Downward Expansion	-81	80
2024-12-27	37.00	39.04	-14.56	92343	Downward Expansion	-73	65
2024-12-20	37.60	39.17	-10.90	51000	Downward Expansion	-61	34
2024-12-13	38.07	39.25	-12.40	48007	Downward Expansion	-42	19
2024-12-06	38.34	39.34	-13.11	70170	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2024-11-29	39.04	39.43	-8.49	120185	Downward Expansion	-30	17
2024-11-22	38.72	39.47	-12.32	128738	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2024-11-15	38.62	39.52	-12.33	81000	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-11-08	38.21	39.55	-16.62	101000	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2024-11-01	37.83	39.65	-15.09	19050	Downward Expansion	-67	54
2024-10-25	38.34	39.72	-16.42	53000	Downward Expansion	-58	54
2024-10-18	38.25	39.80	-17.57	63564	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2024-10-11	38.39	39.89	-15.57	25015	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2024-10-04	37.97	39.86	-14.64	40000	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2024-09-27	38.62	39.82	-15.55	62000	Downward Expansion	-58	57
2024-09-20	39.13	39.81	-12.31	78050	Balance	-21	38
2024-09-13	38.58	39.77	-12.37	58050	Balance	-33	38
2024-09-06	38.99	39.76	-10.44	50077	Balance	-25	19
2024-08-30	39.92	39.76	-12.06	46311	Balance	19	7
2024-08-23	40.11	39.74	-11.53	41102	Balance	32	14
2024-08-16	40.11	39.73	-12.60	54030	Balance	30	15
2024-08-09	39.74	39.72	-10.24	120050	Balance	24	12
2024-08-02	40.43	39.74	-9.70	88039	Balance	32	15
2024-07-26	40.39	39.76	-12.03	72045	Balance	27	11
2024-07-19	39.97	39.82	-16.06	145041	Balance	-11	12
2024-07-12	39.55	39.85	-20.89	260266	Balance	-12	17
2024-07-05	39.60	39.97	-19.94	99118	Balance	-19	18
2024-06-28	39.69	40.02	-18.34	120285	Balance	-7	10
2024-06-21	39.37	40.06	-20.11	100013	Balance	-8	6
2024-06-14	39.96	40.00	-16.60	104052	Balance	8	6
2024-06-07	40.68	39.89	-12.89	110118	Balance	51	26
2024-05-31	40.77	39.75	-10.15	62062	Balance	53	30
2024-05-24	40.00	39.56	-13.68	107891	Balance	49	27
2024-05-17	40.91	39.41	-10.82	171000	Balance	55	30
2024-05-10	41.09	39.22	-8.40	229041	Balance	59	30
2024-05-03	40.27	39.05	-8.87	73059	Balance	52	29
2024-04-26	39.96	38.91	-9.07	155299	Balance	51	36
2024-04-19	39.78	38.79	-7.10	216706	Balance	54	46
2024-04-12	41.00	38.68	-10.12	100168	Balance	54	44
2024-04-05	40.00	38.55	-10.85	81000	Balance	39	31
2024-03-29	40.86	38.44	-9.05	345375	Balance	46	24
2024-03-22	40.73	38.28	-9.34	482165	Rotation Down	34	20
2024-03-15	37.70	38.13	-13.99	116500	Rotation Down	-23	49
2024-03-08	36.57	38.10	-17.38	181140	Deceleration	-38	50
2024-03-01	38.38	38.11	-9.99	157030	Deceleration	2	19
2024-02-23	37.93	38.07	-11.27	181015	Deceleration	0	15
2024-02-16	38.38	38.05	-9.33	37100	Deceleration	18	18
2024-02-09	38.96	38.01	-5.81	8000	Deceleration	29	21
2024-02-02	39.46	37.94	-4.85	58110	Deceleration	34	23
2024-01-26	39.73	37.86	-4.07	26300	Deceleration	39	23
2024-01-19	39.87	37.78	-2.30	86110	Upward Expansion	45	34
2024-01-12	40.09	37.71	-1.09	85095	Upward Expansion	59	45
2024-01-05	41.27	37.62	1.43	41100	Upward Expansion	64	68
2023-12-29	41.94	37.48	0.40	81150	Upward Expansion	69	83
2023-12-22	41.13	37.33	0.09	125050	Upward Expansion	67	84
2023-12-15	43.03	37.23	3.97	247047	Rotation Up	89	92
2023-12-08	41.09	37.06	0.66	134072	Rotation Up	55	70
2023-12-01	41.04	36.93	0.08	529548	Rotation Up	46	43
2023-11-24	37.57	36.87	-7.71	99280	Downward Expansion	-7	12
2023-11-17	36.62	36.89	-9.91	84354	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2023-11-10	36.26	36.91	-8.17	100003	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2023-11-03	35.13	36.94	-10.24	33000	Downward Expansion	-72	67
2023-10-27	35.49	37.00	-7.44	15000	Downward Expansion	-68	63
2023-10-20	35.22	37.08	-10.06	68621	Downward Expansion	-75	63
2023-10-13	36.12	37.15	-9.83	32023	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2023-10-06	36.12	37.20	-8.60	13000	Downward Expansion	-63	39

Price vs TrendBelow-2.2%

Trend directionRising+1.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+2.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-26.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.2%

Price momentumNegative-1.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.43×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-37 / ±100

-12.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

31 /100

-5.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2945 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance32

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion11

Deceleration53

Rotation Down53

Downward Expansion51

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 35%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 18%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	-1.5%
Balance	2026-09-04	2026-09-11	New	-1.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-08-28	Developing	-3.3%
Deceleration	2026-05-22	2026-06-12	New	+3.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-2.9%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-04-17	New	+4.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-03-27	Developing	-3.2%
Rotation Up	2026-01-16	2026-01-23	New	-2.5%
Balance	2025-11-07	2026-01-09	Developing	-2.1%
Rotation Down	2025-10-17	2025-10-31	New	+2.6%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-10-10	Developing	-0.3%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-07-25	New	-1.3%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-07-11	Developing	+3.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-27	2025-05-30	Extended	-5.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing52

Stage 2 · Advancing31

Stage 3 · Distribution63

Stage 4 · Declining69

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: -26.28
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -1.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -40.7%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 33th percentile3 in cohort

Test 2945 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.41×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.43×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2945 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 39.76falling

Slow Activity TWD 40.36falling

Trend Reference TWD 40.28-2.2% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 38.47+2.4% close margin

Structural low TWD 37.81shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +2.3%

Annualized volatility +11.0%

From structural high -10.6%

From structural low +10.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+2.0%-7.5% to +8.7%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+1.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	3	+6.0%-22.1% to +6.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-8.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+2.3%-32.5% to +12.4%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-30.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-30.1%-58.6% to -1.6%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-25.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2945 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map