Weekly structural research · SET · Utilities

TSE Stage Analysis

Thai Solar Energy Public Company Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close THB 1.21Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^SET.BK

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 82−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 93/100directional strength

Maturity 40/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +38.8%THB 0.8718 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	1.21	0.8157	72.65	255037800	Upward Expansion	82	93
2026-09-25	1.26	0.7883	78.41	297591000	Upward Expansion	96	98
2026-09-18	1.15	0.7613	67.97	280676800	Upward Expansion	93	92
2026-09-11	0.97	0.739	41.33	253184600	Upward Expansion	85	76
2026-09-04	0.84	0.7223	24.25	50595600	Upward Expansion	59	37
2026-08-28	0.82	0.708	22.67	5768600	Upward Expansion	55	31
2026-08-21	0.84	0.6943	24.08	18260000	Upward Expansion	53	28
2026-08-14	0.74	0.6797	11.12	8013200	Upward Expansion	20	17
2026-08-07	0.79	0.6683	19.00	7551000	Upward Expansion	43	33
2026-07-31	0.79	0.6567	18.93	3856100	Upward Expansion	44	33
2026-07-24	0.82	0.646	22.70	22752400	Deceleration	58	38
2026-07-17	0.81	0.6343	22.43	6275400	Deceleration	55	30
2026-07-10	0.80	0.6223	23.18	4860100	Deceleration	40	21
2026-07-03	0.79	0.6117	23.28	7777600	Deceleration	35	24
2026-06-26	0.71	0.6013	16.65	1502600	Deceleration	35	23
2026-06-19	0.74	0.592	19.94	3463500	Deceleration	40	28
2026-06-12	0.75	0.581	20.83	4297700	Upward Expansion	45	36
2026-06-05	0.83	0.57	35.49	8296200	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-05-29	0.83	0.557	38.09	86076900	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-05-22	0.87	0.5443	49.15	105754800	Upward Expansion	69	60
2026-05-15	0.81	0.5313	42.51	134650300	Upward Expansion	66	60
2026-05-08	0.91	0.5197	63.59	355618900	Upward Expansion	83	79
2026-05-01	0.86	0.507	57.41	200191000	Upward Expansion	86	91
2026-04-24	0.73	0.4967	38.71	85370900	Upward Expansion	70	86
2026-04-17	0.76	0.49	43.16	59199800	Upward Expansion	79	91
2026-04-10	0.74	0.486	38.50	157311400	Rotation Up	82	89
2026-04-03	0.69	0.4783	35.49	263200400	Rotation Up	55	72
2026-03-27	0.60	0.4713	19.45	172859100	Rotation Up	47	55
2026-03-20	0.60	0.4663	21.30	147963900	Rotation Up	37	29
2026-03-13	0.41	0.4597	-15.22	9352400	Balance	-50	24
2026-03-06	0.39	0.459	-19.45	11018900	Balance	-47	24
2026-02-27	0.45	0.461	-14.49	7025100	Balance	-24	18
2026-02-20	0.48	0.4613	-6.09	12773000	Downward Expansion	-15	11
2026-02-13	0.47	0.4593	-5.82	13803800	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2026-02-06	0.41	0.457	-13.96	2231600	Downward Expansion	-58	66
2026-01-30	0.41	0.4563	-13.05	5729800	Deceleration	-58	65
2026-01-23	0.40	0.455	-15.43	5883000	Deceleration	-39	52
2026-01-16	0.40	0.454	-13.91	5630400	Deceleration	-38	36
2026-01-09	0.44	0.4527	-4.87	5288000	Deceleration	18	9
2026-01-02	0.47	0.4503	-0.24	964700	Deceleration	34	21
2025-12-26	0.47	0.447	-1.61	2544500	Deceleration	31	22
2025-12-19	0.45	0.4433	-6.57	1856300	Deceleration	24	14
2025-12-12	0.48	0.441	-1.93	4560400	Deceleration	25	13
2025-12-05	0.48	0.4387	-4.67	8459300	Deceleration	9	14
2025-11-28	0.43	0.4367	-14.56	2000900	Deceleration	-18	28
2025-11-21	0.41	0.4363	-19.61	1200000	Deceleration	-22	26
2025-11-14	0.42	0.4353	-19.81	2339000	Deceleration	-0	15
2025-11-07	0.44	0.434	-19.29	1999200	Deceleration	15	19
2025-10-31	0.45	0.4293	-19.05	2199400	Deceleration	25	19
2025-10-24	0.48	0.426	-15.30	2059900	Deceleration	36	20
2025-10-17	0.46	0.4223	-17.50	12917600	Upward Expansion	51	31
2025-10-10	0.53	0.4193	-7.26	6822900	Upward Expansion	60	61
2025-10-03	0.55	0.4133	-5.63	21868900	Upward Expansion	62	71
2025-09-26	0.53	0.4083	-9.20	52671400	Upward Expansion	63	73
2025-09-19	0.64	0.4047	6.73	71037600	Upward Expansion	87	83
2025-09-12	0.51	0.4043	-16.09	27993900	Balance	71	58
2025-09-05	0.48	0.408	-20.39	43663000	Balance	38	24
2025-08-29	0.45	0.4133	-24.62	49976400	Balance	32	20
2025-08-22	0.40	0.4213	-34.71	9931300	Balance	3	12
2025-08-15	0.39	0.432	-37.60	4692200	Balance	-7	19
2025-08-08	0.45	0.4437	-29.05	18671600	Balance	9	26
2025-08-01	0.46	0.457	-26.17	46902700	Balance	16	25
2025-07-25	0.42	0.4717	-33.61	16781900	Downward Expansion	-8	10
2025-07-18	0.40	0.488	-37.20	17339000	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2025-07-11	0.39	0.5043	-35.22	24116800	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2025-07-04	0.37	0.522	-39.54	9494400	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2025-06-27	0.37	0.541	-38.59	12367000	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-06-20	0.36	0.56	-40.37	4565500	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2025-06-13	0.37	0.579	-42.64	3012100	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2025-06-06	0.37	0.597	-44.26	1863000	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2025-05-30	0.36	0.6167	-47.24	3710100	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2025-05-23	0.38	0.6387	-46.49	3684100	Downward Expansion	-47	41
2025-05-16	0.41	0.6593	-44.13	4982400	Downward Expansion	-45	42
2025-05-09	0.42	0.6807	-44.35	5407700	Downward Expansion	-49	49
2025-05-02	0.42	0.7033	-44.65	15870600	Downward Expansion	-54	58
2025-04-25	0.38	0.7247	-49.04	5466000	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-04-18	0.38	0.7507	-49.46	4716600	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2025-04-11	0.30	0.777	-59.96	8148000	Downward Expansion	-82	73
2025-04-04	0.35	0.8027	-53.92	8718500	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2025-03-28	0.37	0.824	-54.06	4770600	Downward Expansion	-71	88
2025-03-21	0.37	0.8423	-55.20	21852300	Downward Expansion	-78	89
2025-03-14	0.35	0.862	-57.86	12935400	Downward Expansion	-92	82
2025-03-07	0.40	0.8807	-53.78	14156900	Downward Expansion	-94	90
2025-02-28	0.42	0.90	-52.27	22256200	Downward Expansion	-98	93
2025-02-21	0.63	0.9217	-31.89	4649700	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2025-02-14	0.62	0.934	-35.60	1960600	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2025-02-07	0.64	0.9487	-35.44	5086600	Downward Expansion	-91	97
2025-01-31	0.69	0.9647	-33.58	3141800	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2025-01-24	0.72	0.9793	-34.10	9130600	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2025-01-17	0.74	0.99	-33.01	4341100	Downward Expansion	-95	94
2025-01-10	0.85	1.00	-26.11	3185700	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2025-01-03	0.90	1.01	-24.05	1590400	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2024-12-27	0.91	1.02	-25.02	2415400	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2024-12-20	0.89	1.02	-25.55	5832500	Downward Expansion	-70	61
2024-12-13	0.92	1.03	-27.44	1480700	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-12-06	0.94	1.04	-27.71	2126000	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2024-11-29	0.94	1.05	-27.35	2944500	Downward Expansion	-61	66
2024-11-22	0.93	1.06	-29.93	2421400	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2024-11-15	0.91	1.06	-32.11	6339100	Balance	-73	64
2024-11-08	0.96	1.07	-30.32	5993800	Balance	-54	36
2024-11-01	1.02	1.08	-26.78	7898500	Balance	-37	22
2024-10-25	1.00	1.08	-29.02	3751500	Balance	-39	20
2024-10-18	1.05	1.09	-27.54	8745400	Rotation Up	-8	13
2024-10-11	1.10	1.10	-23.79	14448600	Rotation Up	17	27
2024-10-04	1.06	1.10	-26.00	17823100	Balance	15	27
2024-09-27	1.16	1.11	-20.24	24125100	Balance	6	22
2024-09-20	1.17	1.11	-20.43	41889800	Downward Expansion	-8	11
2024-09-13	1.07	1.13	-26.54	34283100	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2024-09-06	0.99	1.16	-32.91	12473200	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2024-08-30	0.92	1.19	-35.28	6173700	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-08-23	0.96	1.23	-33.04	17697100	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2024-08-16	0.91	1.26	-34.73	11293100	Downward Expansion	-83	78
2024-08-09	0.98	1.29	-30.18	3734600	Downward Expansion	-75	59
2024-08-02	1.07	1.33	-25.49	1090100	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2024-07-26	1.00	1.35	-30.73	4595300	Downward Expansion	-76	54
2024-07-19	1.06	1.37	-27.90	3105500	Downward Expansion	-67	50
2024-07-12	1.12	1.39	-25.40	5062000	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2024-07-05	1.13	1.40	-24.32	29201600	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2024-06-28	1.04	1.42	-30.43	3819500	Downward Expansion	-79	71
2024-06-21	1.06	1.45	-30.16	1028000	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2024-06-14	1.08	1.47	-29.63	2774900	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2024-06-07	1.10	1.49	-30.46	5348700	Downward Expansion	-77	88
2024-05-31	1.12	1.51	-30.70	4453100	Downward Expansion	-77	86
2024-05-24	1.15	1.53	-30.52	1552200	Downward Expansion	-67	59
2024-05-17	1.16	1.55	-31.47	4993200	Downward Expansion	-67	61
2024-05-10	1.16	1.57	-31.49	4979700	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2024-05-03	1.23	1.59	-27.77	9819500	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2024-04-26	1.14	1.61	-32.91	6190200	Downward Expansion	-74	86
2024-04-19	1.18	1.64	-29.56	0	Downward Expansion	-70	87
2024-04-12	1.18	1.66	-33.21	4779500	Downward Expansion	-72	86
2024-04-05	1.15	1.69	-34.37	4656400	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2024-03-29	1.21	1.72	-31.57	10882500	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2024-03-22	1.27	1.75	-28.81	9664700	Downward Expansion	-74	91
2024-03-15	1.30	1.78	-27.79	8010900	Downward Expansion	-78	90
2024-03-08	1.26	1.80	-30.40	22827300	Rotation Down	-88	82
2024-03-01	1.27	1.83	-29.42	29084900	Rotation Down	-72	49
2024-02-23	1.77	1.86	-4.36	8530700	Rotation Up	-7	9
2024-02-16	1.86	1.87	1.04	5140500	Rotation Up	20	34
2024-02-09	1.92	1.88	4.49	4827200	Rotation Up	24	53
2024-02-02	1.92	1.88	4.79	6444800	Rotation Up	22	39
2024-01-26	1.94	1.89	7.09	9177700	Downward Expansion	25	36
2024-01-19	1.98	1.90	8.12	66240200	Downward Expansion	11	23
2024-01-12	1.96	1.91	4.72	43148300	Downward Expansion	-13	12
2024-01-05	1.69	1.92	-10.55	13434500	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2023-12-29	1.64	1.94	-13.06	8549200	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2023-12-22	1.64	1.96	-12.58	8009500	Downward Expansion	-69	59
2023-12-15	1.62	1.98	-12.95	5340500	Downward Expansion	-77	61
2023-12-08	1.67	2.00	-9.40	4959200	Downward Expansion	-70	57
2023-12-01	1.71	2.01	-7.34	3510300	Downward Expansion	-67	57
2023-11-24	1.73	2.01	-7.47	4558100	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2023-11-17	1.74	2.02	-8.14	4001300	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2023-11-10	1.69	2.03	-8.98	5499300	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2023-11-03	1.82	2.04	-4.30	7710200	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2023-10-27	1.66	2.05	-10.35	5866300	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2023-10-20	1.65	2.07	-11.60	9086700	Downward Expansion	-96	97
2023-10-13	1.84	2.08	-5.32	7039300	Downward Expansion	-85	89

Price vs TrendAbove+48.3%

Trend directionRising+26.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+38.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+57.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+72.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+49.4%

Price momentumPositive+75.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led3.43×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

82 / ±100

+22.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

93 /100

+56.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TSE Directional State ↗ TSE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance10

Rotation Up87

Upward Expansion100

Deceleration39

Rotation Down8

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 53%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-10-02	Developing	+53.2%
Deceleration	2026-06-19	2026-07-24	Developing	+10.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-06-12	Developing	-1.3%
Rotation Up	2026-03-20	2026-04-10	New	+23.3%
Balance	2026-02-27	2026-03-13	New	-8.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-02-20	New	+17.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2026-01-30	Established	-14.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-10-17	Developing	-28.1%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-09-12	Developing	+10.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-07-25	Extended	-54.8%
Balance	2024-10-25	2024-11-15	New	-9.0%
Rotation Up	2024-10-11	2024-10-18	New	-4.5%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-10-04	New	-8.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-03-15	2024-09-20	Extended	-10.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing22

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution48

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SET.BK

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: 72.65
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +75.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +67.3%
Utilities regime cohort: 92th percentile12 in cohort

Test TSE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.56×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.43×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TSE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity THB 1.15rising

Slow Activity THB 0.8824rising

Trend Reference THB 0.8157+48.3% close margin

Current Fair Value THB 0.8718+38.8% close margin

Structural low THB 0.69shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.7%

Annualized volatility +55.2%

From structural high -10.4%

From structural low +255.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SET.BK	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-0.9%-28.1% to +53.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.4%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-8.3%-29.7% to +6.6%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-12.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-6.2%-17.4% to +1.4%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-17.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-24.4%-32.8% to +79.7%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-9.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TSE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map