Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Cyclical

NRE1 Stage Analysis

Nokian Renkaat Oyj

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 15.97Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 64−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 64/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +89.8%EUR 8.42 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	15.97	12.47	21.26	0	Upward Expansion	64	64
2026-09-18	15.87	12.29	23.91	0	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-09-11	16.02	12.10	24.34	0	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-09-04	16.13	11.94	26.56	0	Upward Expansion	75	71
2026-08-28	16.27	11.75	29.90	0	Upward Expansion	86	76
2026-08-21	16.09	11.56	32.43	0	Upward Expansion	89	83
2026-08-14	15.35	11.39	25.39	0	Upward Expansion	76	91
2026-08-07	15.05	11.22	25.36	0	Upward Expansion	72	90
2026-07-31	15.22	11.06	31.52	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2026-07-24	14.98	10.87	30.42	0	Upward Expansion	92	97
2026-07-17	15.26	10.67	35.62	5049	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-07-10	13.24	10.45	16.53	0	Upward Expansion	91	96
2026-07-03	12.83	10.29	12.34	0	Upward Expansion	90	96
2026-06-26	12.06	10.15	8.90	0	Upward Expansion	78	91
2026-06-19	12.34	10.02	9.97	400	Upward Expansion	90	93
2026-06-12	11.62	9.87	8.63	0	Upward Expansion	83	82
2026-06-05	11.02	9.76	6.56	0	Upward Expansion	71	67
2026-05-29	11.08	9.66	6.54	0	Upward Expansion	76	70
2026-05-22	10.34	9.58	2.59	0	Upward Expansion	57	62
2026-05-15	10.34	9.51	5.06	0	Upward Expansion	57	63
2026-05-08	10.82	9.42	9.91	0	Deceleration	61	54
2026-05-01	10.37	9.31	7.44	0	Deceleration	50	37
2026-04-24	10.35	9.23	8.22	3081	Deceleration	45	26
2026-04-17	9.68	9.13	-2.06	0	Deceleration	8	10
2026-04-10	9.67	9.07	0.40	0	Deceleration	3	19
2026-04-03	9.24	9.00	2.23	0	Deceleration	-1	26
2026-03-27	9.20	8.95	5.66	0	Deceleration	0	24
2026-03-20	8.89	8.91	3.89	0	Deceleration	2	22
2026-03-13	9.13	8.88	5.60	0	Deceleration	22	24
2026-03-06	9.81	8.83	10.88	2138	Upward Expansion	48	43
2026-02-27	10.40	8.76	12.00	0	Upward Expansion	62	58
2026-02-20	10.33	8.67	9.77	0	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-02-13	11.04	8.59	21.60	4001	Upward Expansion	82	76
2026-02-06	10.38	8.45	14.11	0	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-01-30	10.57	8.31	17.85	0	Upward Expansion	71	90
2026-01-23	10.96	8.17	24.00	0	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-01-16	10.54	8.00	20.48	0	Upward Expansion	94	97
2026-01-09	10.17	7.85	17.75	0	Upward Expansion	95	97
2026-01-02	9.44	7.71	10.30	0	Upward Expansion	88	89
2025-12-26	8.88	7.60	5.65	0	Upward Expansion	74	76
2025-12-19	8.82	7.52	5.01	0	Upward Expansion	76	63
2025-12-12	8.53	7.44	3.90	0	Upward Expansion	68	48
2025-12-05	8.55	7.37	4.15	0	Upward Expansion	73	47
2025-11-28	8.17	7.29	0.67	0	Upward Expansion	59	41
2025-11-21	7.93	7.24	1.78	0	Upward Expansion	57	47
2025-11-14	8.10	7.19	2.26	0	Upward Expansion	60	64
2025-11-07	8.16	7.12	4.69	0	Upward Expansion	61	66
2025-10-31	8.54	7.05	8.00	12290	Upward Expansion	82	69
2025-10-24	8.28	6.96	7.48	0	Deceleration	79	55
2025-10-17	7.70	6.89	1.50	0	Deceleration	42	31
2025-10-10	7.47	6.84	-3.84	0	Deceleration	43	33
2025-10-03	7.86	6.79	-1.36	0	Deceleration	54	43
2025-09-26	7.62	6.73	-2.85	0	Upward Expansion	49	44
2025-09-19	7.76	6.67	-1.22	0	Upward Expansion	61	55
2025-09-12	7.69	6.61	-3.01	0	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-09-05	7.75	6.56	-1.73	0	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-08-29	7.82	6.49	-1.59	0	Upward Expansion	69	84
2025-08-22	8.17	6.48	-1.43	0	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-08-15	7.63	6.45	-9.37	0	Upward Expansion	71	89
2025-08-08	7.56	6.44	-8.42	0	Upward Expansion	72	90
2025-08-01	7.55	6.42	-3.55	0	Rotation Up	79	89
2025-07-25	7.93	6.40	-1.78	0	Rotation Up	62	77
2025-07-18	7.05	6.36	-11.26	4797	Rotation Up	44	30
2025-07-11	6.20	6.35	-22.25	0	Downward Expansion	-47	26
2025-07-04	6.15	6.38	-21.54	0	Downward Expansion	-50	42
2025-06-27	6.09	6.41	-23.38	0	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-06-20	5.96	6.44	-24.03	0	Balance	-48	38
2025-06-13	5.95	6.48	-25.07	0	Balance	-50	28
2025-06-06	6.14	6.51	-24.70	0	Balance	-32	14
2025-05-30	6.41	6.55	-21.57	1530	Balance	-8	10
2025-05-23	6.41	6.58	-21.32	2914	Balance	-8	16
2025-05-16	6.38	6.62	-23.13	0	Downward Expansion	-12	21
2025-05-09	6.22	6.66	-23.45	1530	Downward Expansion	-27	24
2025-05-02	6.63	6.71	-15.23	0	Downward Expansion	-19	16
2025-04-25	6.46	6.75	-16.52	0	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2025-04-18	6.06	6.80	-19.40	0	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-04-11	5.90	6.86	-17.87	3060	Downward Expansion	-66	50
2025-04-04	5.92	6.92	-19.18	5949	Downward Expansion	-68	49
2025-03-28	6.11	6.98	-25.30	0	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2025-03-21	6.23	7.03	-25.89	0	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2025-03-14	6.12	7.08	-28.24	0	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2025-03-07	5.99	7.13	-30.12	0	Downward Expansion	-65	87
2025-02-28	5.87	7.17	-29.70	0	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2025-02-21	6.04	7.23	-26.47	0	Downward Expansion	-77	88
2025-02-14	5.99	7.28	-28.13	4077	Downward Expansion	-83	80
2025-02-07	5.89	7.32	-26.13	1359	Downward Expansion	-78	44
2025-01-31	7.51	7.36	-6.00	0	Downward Expansion	-4	17
2025-01-24	7.23	7.35	-9.28	1359	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-01-17	7.12	7.34	-9.32	3956	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2025-01-10	6.99	7.34	-8.07	0	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2025-01-03	6.94	7.35	-8.94	0	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2024-12-27	6.88	7.36	-9.38	0	Downward Expansion	-64	46
2024-12-20	6.78	7.39	-9.88	0	Downward Expansion	-73	54
2024-12-13	7.16	7.43	-6.44	0	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2024-12-06	7.05	7.46	-6.35	0	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2024-11-29	6.90	7.48	-7.41	0	Rotation Down	-73	75
2024-11-22	7.00	7.50	-5.92	0	Rotation Down	-43	61
2024-11-15	7.07	7.53	-5.71	0	Balance	-42	49
2024-11-08	7.21	7.56	-3.94	0	Balance	-34	29
2024-11-01	7.31	7.59	-2.19	3378	Balance	-17	16
2024-10-25	7.50	7.61	-1.18	0	Rotation Up	1	5
2024-10-18	7.80	7.61	1.67	0	Rotation Up	25	23
2024-10-11	7.73	7.61	1.04	0	Rotation Up	25	24
2024-10-04	7.72	7.59	1.17	0	Rotation Up	27	27
2024-09-27	8.09	7.57	4.93	0	Rotation Up	39	43
2024-09-20	7.77	7.55	1.88	0	Rotation Up	23	34
2024-09-13	7.66	7.54	0.86	0	Rotation Up	19	38
2024-09-06	7.64	7.53	1.23	0	Rotation Up	19	34
2024-08-30	7.80	7.52	-0.74	0	Balance	31	32
2024-08-23	7.74	7.50	-0.43	0	Balance	17	21
2024-08-16	7.53	7.50	-1.51	0	Balance	-17	20
2024-08-09	7.32	7.48	-2.60	0	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2024-08-02	7.49	7.49	0.61	0	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2024-07-26	7.58	7.48	-2.31	0	Downward Expansion	-33	22
2024-07-19	7.09	7.47	-8.83	0	Rotation Down	-63	56
2024-07-12	7.21	7.47	-8.36	0	Rotation Down	-34	58
2024-07-05	7.13	7.46	-9.68	0	Rotation Down	-27	59
2024-06-28	7.00	7.47	-9.08	0	Rotation Down	-37	58
2024-06-21	7.16	7.45	-6.68	0	Deceleration	-30	40
2024-06-14	7.13	7.45	-5.77	0	Deceleration	-11	19
2024-06-07	7.44	7.45	-5.22	0	Deceleration	21	16
2024-05-31	7.70	7.44	-2.90	0	Deceleration	38	26
2024-05-24	7.80	7.41	-3.43	0	Deceleration	39	24
2024-05-17	8.24	7.35	1.80	1137	Deceleration	74	40
2024-05-10	7.59	7.29	-4.70	0	Upward Expansion	41	27
2024-05-03	7.42	7.25	-4.62	0	Upward Expansion	54	42
2024-04-26	7.96	7.22	3.33	0	Upward Expansion	66	79
2024-04-19	7.95	7.17	3.36	0	Upward Expansion	65	78
2024-04-12	8.07	7.12	4.51	0	Upward Expansion	78	81
2024-04-05	8.02	7.08	3.58	0	Upward Expansion	80	68
2024-03-29	7.63	7.03	-0.47	0	Upward Expansion	64	39
2024-03-22	7.63	7.00	0.53	0	Upward Expansion	67	35
2024-03-15	7.10	6.97	-4.04	0	Upward Expansion	33	19
2024-03-08	7.32	6.95	-0.19	0	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-03-01	7.41	6.94	1.45	0	Upward Expansion	57	38
2024-02-23	7.36	6.93	0.81	0	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-02-16	7.42	6.93	0.91	0	Upward Expansion	61	47
2024-02-09	7.36	6.92	1.39	2317	Upward Expansion	56	38
2024-02-02	7.31	6.91	-1.63	2434	Upward Expansion	58	45
2024-01-26	7.53	6.88	0.32	0	Upward Expansion	72	60
2024-01-19	7.11	6.86	-2.65	0	Upward Expansion	59	52
2024-01-12	7.39	6.85	-0.96	0	Upward Expansion	69	63
2024-01-05	7.39	6.84	-2.34	0	Rotation Up	69	57
2023-12-29	7.20	6.84	-5.36	0	Rotation Up	36	40
2023-12-22	7.07	6.83	-6.64	0	Rotation Up	28	23
2023-12-15	7.06	6.84	-6.15	0	Rotation Up	19	23
2023-12-08	7.31	6.84	-1.74	0	Rotation Up	37	38
2023-12-01	6.56	6.84	-12.04	0	Rotation Up	6	23
2023-11-24	7.01	6.87	-4.78	0	Downward Expansion	21	35
2023-11-17	7.27	6.90	-2.33	0	Downward Expansion	16	23
2023-11-10	7.01	6.89	-4.19	0	Downward Expansion	-13	11
2023-11-03	6.80	6.90	-7.05	200	Downward Expansion	-48	37
2023-10-27	5.96	6.90	-14.34	0	Downward Expansion	-89	84
2023-10-20	6.46	6.94	-8.58	0	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2023-10-13	6.50	6.94	-12.07	0	Downward Expansion	-61	66
2023-10-06	6.55	6.94	-11.61	0	Downward Expansion	-61	57

Price vs TrendAbove+28.0%

Trend directionRising+17.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+89.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+33.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+21.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+12.4%

Price momentumPositive+73.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led5.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

64 / ±100

-21.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

64 /100

-12.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NRE1 Directional State ↗ NRE1 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance12

Rotation Up51

Upward Expansion83

Deceleration72

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 7%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 42%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-09-25	Established	+54.4%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-05-08	Developing	+18.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2026-03-06	Established	+14.8%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-10-24	New	+5.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-09-26	Developing	+0.8%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-08-01	New	+7.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-07-11	New	+1.8%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-20	Developing	-7.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-06	2025-05-16	Established	-9.5%
Rotation Down	2024-11-22	2024-11-29	New	-1.4%
Balance	2024-11-01	2024-11-15	New	-3.2%
Rotation Up	2024-09-06	2024-10-25	Developing	-1.8%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-08-30	New	+3.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-08-09	New	-3.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: 21.26
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +73.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +41.8%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 71th percentile17 in cohort

Test NRE1 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume5.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NRE1 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 15.99rising

Slow Activity EUR 13.89rising

Trend Reference EUR 12.47+28.0% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 8.42+89.8% close margin

Structural low EUR 9.04shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.3%

Annualized volatility +28.0%

From structural high -3.8%

From structural low +121.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	+2.0%-13.9% to +23.4%	+55.6%	+55.6%	+0.9%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+7.9%-11.6% to +48.5%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+4.6%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+18.4%-2.4% to +45.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+3.0%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-5.4%-67.9% to +99.2%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-12.9%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NRE1 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map