Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

FOS Stage Analysis

FOS Capital Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.11Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 62/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -51.7%AUD 0.2278 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.11	0.1258	-34.75	10441	Balance	-70	62
2026-10-02	0.12	0.1272	-29.80	56514	Balance	-43	31
2026-09-25	0.12	0.128	-30.91	92346	Balance	-15	12
2026-09-18	0.12	0.1292	-32.67	130127	Balance	-14	8
2026-09-11	0.12	0.1318	-33.95	10189	Balance	-9	7
2026-09-04	0.15	0.1347	-21.28	46183	Balance	36	23
2026-08-28	0.13	0.1368	-33.40	50811	Balance	-12	10
2026-08-21	0.12	0.1397	-39.13	0	Balance	-20	20
2026-08-14	0.135	0.143	-33.20	10000	Balance	-3	22
2026-08-07	0.14	0.1457	-33.02	0	Balance	1	20
2026-07-31	0.14	0.1493	-31.97	5037	Downward Expansion	-14	17
2026-07-24	0.13	0.153	-36.34	24308	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2026-07-17	0.13	0.157	-37.54	0	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2026-07-10	0.12	0.161	-43.35	10332	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2026-07-03	0.10	0.1653	-53.83	0	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2026-06-26	0.10	0.171	-54.27	0	Downward Expansion	-81	59
2026-06-19	0.11	0.1762	-51.00	70673	Downward Expansion	-78	54
2026-06-12	0.14	0.1807	-38.50	0	Downward Expansion	-45	38
2026-06-05	0.14	0.1845	-38.11	201356	Downward Expansion	-49	46
2026-05-29	0.115	0.1892	-50.47	0	Downward Expansion	-75	62
2026-05-22	0.13	0.1945	-44.51	180824	Downward Expansion	-50	50
2026-05-15	0.125	0.1988	-47.31	335895	Downward Expansion	-59	59
2026-05-08	0.14	0.2032	-42.57	135099	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-05-01	0.125	0.2077	-49.39	0	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2026-04-24	0.125	0.2132	-50.50	4997	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2026-04-17	0.12	0.2187	-54.08	141351	Downward Expansion	-79	72
2026-04-10	0.125	0.2243	-53.00	117373	Downward Expansion	-78	72
2026-04-03	0.125	0.23	-51.58	86845	Downward Expansion	-83	74
2026-03-27	0.14	0.2355	-46.00	27253	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2026-03-20	0.13	0.2397	-49.90	111540	Downward Expansion	-91	97
2026-03-13	0.15	0.2457	-44.20	35123	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2026-03-06	0.145	0.2511	-48.14	49130	Downward Expansion	-97	99
2026-02-27	0.155	0.2563	-47.34	389195	Downward Expansion	-99	99
2026-02-20	0.20	0.261	-32.13	110709	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2026-02-13	0.205	0.2643	-29.93	40000	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2026-02-06	0.215	0.2678	-25.42	7292	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2026-01-30	0.215	0.2709	-27.31	54425	Downward Expansion	-81	91
2026-01-23	0.22	0.2739	-26.20	156996	Downward Expansion	-82	85
2026-01-16	0.215	0.2769	-28.88	189599	Downward Expansion	-90	80
2026-01-09	0.25	0.2795	-16.16	49569	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2026-01-02	0.25	0.2812	-16.74	50605	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2025-12-26	0.25	0.2828	-17.62	5032	Downward Expansion	-66	49
2025-12-19	0.25	0.2851	-16.89	1	Downward Expansion	-68	51
2025-12-12	0.25	0.2871	-18.10	67941	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2025-12-05	0.27	0.2884	-11.54	154874	Downward Expansion	-61	64
2025-11-28	0.255	0.2898	-16.56	92047	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2025-11-21	0.245	0.2916	-18.26	17842	Downward Expansion	-77	53
2025-11-14	0.255	0.2937	-17.47	210581	Downward Expansion	-73	49
2025-11-07	0.28	0.295	-11.17	88919	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2025-10-31	0.275	0.2947	-14.14	21464	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2025-10-24	0.26	0.2939	-20.51	22323	Downward Expansion	-74	77
2025-10-17	0.255	0.2945	-22.29	189447	Balance	-80	71
2025-10-10	0.275	0.2956	-16.45	102744	Balance	-42	41
2025-10-03	0.29	0.2963	-12.61	76686	Balance	-23	17
2025-09-26	0.29	0.2966	-11.05	64293	Balance	-21	25
2025-09-19	0.29	0.2979	-10.85	20200	Balance	-23	40
2025-09-12	0.2948	0.2995	-10.21	144810	Balance	-40	45
2025-09-05	0.29	0.3006	-11.70	211970	Balance	-40	39
2025-08-29	0.2658	0.3016	-19.85	290275	Balance	-62	43
2025-08-22	0.3093	0.304	-6.74	16565	Balance	17	12
2025-08-15	0.3142	0.3051	-4.70	41455	Balance	-5	5
2025-08-08	0.2997	0.305	-7.17	6278	Balance	-30	15
2025-08-01	0.2948	0.3058	-6.67	25000	Balance	-33	13
2025-07-25	0.2997	0.3071	-4.72	84056	Balance	-15	9
2025-07-18	0.3093	0.3087	-2.15	5837	Balance	-8	13
2025-07-11	0.3093	0.309	0.45	126691	Balance	-11	7
2025-07-04	0.3045	0.3103	-0.96	15159	Balance	-26	12
2025-06-27	0.3093	0.3108	2.04	112928	Balance	-22	11
2025-06-20	0.2948	0.3108	-2.25	68880	Balance	-33	13
2025-06-13	0.2997	0.3116	-0.87	150947	Balance	-16	10
2025-06-06	0.2997	0.3121	-0.23	58874	Balance	-14	9
2025-05-30	0.319	0.3126	7.69	55726	Balance	-0	8
2025-05-23	0.3093	0.3132	5.86	92678	Downward Expansion	-19	15
2025-05-16	0.29	0.3138	-0.10	227008	Downward Expansion	-27	21
2025-05-09	0.3093	0.3158	8.46	8731	Downward Expansion	-23	22
2025-05-02	0.3093	0.3164	8.97	32474	Downward Expansion	-32	19
2025-04-25	0.3093	0.3174	13.14	3000	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-04-18	0.2948	0.3158	10.55	77537	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2025-04-11	0.2707	0.3145	4.34	125335	Downward Expansion	-64	74
2025-04-04	0.2513	0.3142	-2.85	201404	Rotation Down	-84	83
2025-03-28	0.2755	0.3137	2.75	10541	Rotation Down	-47	65
2025-03-21	0.29	0.3129	9.68	28897	Balance	-38	47
2025-03-14	0.2948	0.311	14.53	52704	Balance	-23	22
2025-03-07	0.2997	0.3073	15.08	254945	Deceleration	1	4
2025-02-28	0.3287	0.3037	23.81	26996	Deceleration	44	20
2025-02-21	0.3383	0.2993	26.68	147613	Deceleration	52	27
2025-02-14	0.3287	0.2945	20.59	70521	Deceleration	37	23
2025-02-07	0.319	0.29	18.89	24190	Deceleration	36	21
2025-01-31	0.3383	0.2869	26.71	75829	Deceleration	55	30
2025-01-24	0.3432	0.283	31.76	87000	Deceleration	60	33
2025-01-17	0.3093	0.279	21.49	25000	Upward Expansion	39	27
2025-01-10	0.3238	0.2765	28.51	2985	Upward Expansion	52	37
2025-01-03	0.3335	0.2734	34.26	53730	Upward Expansion	54	41
2024-12-27	0.348	0.2694	40.86	21461	Deceleration	63	43
2024-12-20	0.319	0.2653	33.33	30131	Deceleration	51	35
2024-12-13	0.348	0.2621	42.80	3000	Deceleration	67	44
2024-12-06	0.319	0.2576	30.46	50266	Deceleration	42	31
2024-11-29	0.3093	0.2541	27.35	12338	Deceleration	42	31
2024-11-22	0.319	0.2514	33.09	59970	Upward Expansion	47	40
2024-11-15	0.3142	0.2479	34.01	51597	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-11-08	0.3142	0.2446	35.40	53536	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-11-01	0.3383	0.2407	50.41	49208	Upward Expansion	69	69
2024-10-25	0.3287	0.236	46.33	146301	Upward Expansion	68	85
2024-10-18	0.348	0.2306	55.59	359595	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-10-11	0.3287	0.2246	50.37	345241	Upward Expansion	87	92
2024-10-04	0.3383	0.2195	58.17	305620	Upward Expansion	98	98
2024-09-27	0.261	0.2143	22.91	58325	Upward Expansion	75	86
2024-09-20	0.2562	0.2121	21.46	58998	Upward Expansion	70	81
2024-09-13	0.261	0.2095	26.51	67322	Upward Expansion	80	63
2024-09-06	0.2368	0.2062	17.07	299613	Upward Expansion	61	48
2024-08-30	0.2512	0.2048	23.90	230187	Upward Expansion	61	38
2024-08-23	0.2325	0.2023	16.75	252178	Rotation Down	28	21
2024-08-16	0.186	0.2005	-5.53	74496	Rotation Down	-37	65
2024-08-09	0.1907	0.2001	-0.62	40414	Deceleration	-34	45
2024-08-02	0.1953	0.20	-0.18	25000	Deceleration	-10	29
2024-07-26	0.1953	0.2009	0.23	64117	Deceleration	-7	20
2024-07-19	0.1953	0.2019	-0.24	55154	Upward Expansion	12	15
2024-07-12	0.2232	0.2015	14.27	0	Upward Expansion	55	41
2024-07-05	0.2232	0.2001	16.68	0	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-06-28	0.2232	0.1988	17.89	46229	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-06-21	0.2325	0.197	22.88	0	Upward Expansion	74	60
2024-06-14	0.2325	0.195	24.70	198465	Upward Expansion	77	61
2024-06-07	0.2139	0.1922	13.21	55450	Upward Expansion	61	53
2024-05-31	0.2232	0.1907	20.73	0	Upward Expansion	71	80
2024-05-24	0.2232	0.1887	20.92	60000	Upward Expansion	74	82
2024-05-17	0.2139	0.1862	15.16	82087	Upward Expansion	64	75
2024-05-10	0.2139	0.184	16.61	930	Upward Expansion	65	78
2024-05-03	0.2279	0.1819	26.70	73500	Upward Expansion	80	84
2024-04-26	0.2139	0.1792	20.31	38000	Upward Expansion	71	75
2024-04-19	0.2139	0.1775	20.85	136000	Deceleration	73	67
2024-04-12	0.20	0.175	10.14	136720	Deceleration	48	26
2024-04-05	0.1953	0.1733	7.93	124952	Deceleration	29	14
2024-03-29	0.1674	0.1715	-8.94	0	Deceleration	-2	19
2024-03-22	0.1674	0.1705	-7.67	95903	Deceleration	1	3
2024-03-15	0.1767	0.1704	-1.52	73527	Deceleration	26	13
2024-03-08	0.1814	0.1696	-1.33	2349	Deceleration	29	15
2024-03-01	0.1953	0.1691	7.56	30000	Deceleration	37	17
2024-02-23	0.1767	0.1682	-1.31	176032	Deceleration	25	18
2024-02-16	0.1628	0.1679	-9.35	202770	Deceleration	9	17
2024-02-09	0.1953	0.1682	8.83	3000	Deceleration	43	31
2024-02-02	0.1767	0.1674	-1.99	59981	Deceleration	33	32
2024-01-26	0.1767	0.1673	-0.10	3019	Upward Expansion	46	34
2024-01-19	0.1767	0.167	1.58	73644	Upward Expansion	64	55
2024-01-12	0.186	0.1665	5.57	64606	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-01-05	0.2232	0.1663	26.58	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2023-12-29	0.2232	0.165	24.92	215164	Rotation Up	98	98
2023-12-22	0.186	0.1629	5.71	26120	Rotation Up	48	73
2023-12-15	0.1814	0.1622	3.88	5488	Rotation Up	47	69
2023-12-08	0.1814	0.1615	7.43	114659	Rotation Up	40	57
2023-12-01	0.1721	0.1609	3.62	61006	Rotation Up	31	45
2023-11-24	0.1721	0.1611	4.00	83755	Downward Expansion	26	26
2023-11-17	0.1488	0.1612	-10.23	15000	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2023-11-10	0.1674	0.1622	1.70	53750	Downward Expansion	-1	10
2023-11-03	0.1628	0.1625	-1.21	55097	Downward Expansion	-25	14
2023-10-27	0.1488	0.1631	-7.95	161494	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2023-10-20	0.1488	0.1639	-9.30	36940	Downward Expansion	-42	24

Price vs TrendBelow-12.6%

Trend directionFalling-15.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-51.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-34.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.6%

Price momentumNegative-12.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led3.33×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

-60.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

62 /100

+54.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

FOS Directional State ↗ FOS Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration36

Rotation Down74

Downward Expansion87

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-10-09	Developing	-21.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-24	2026-07-31	Extended	-46.2%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-10-17	Established	-20.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-23	Developing	+14.3%
Rotation Down	2025-03-28	2025-04-04	New	-8.8%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-03-21	New	-1.6%
Deceleration	2025-01-24	2025-03-07	Developing	-12.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-01-17	New	-7.2%
Deceleration	2024-11-29	2024-12-27	Developing	+12.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-30	2024-11-22	Established	+27.0%
Rotation Down	2024-08-16	2024-08-23	New	+25.0%
Deceleration	2024-07-26	2024-08-09	New	-2.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-26	2024-07-19	Established	-8.7%
Deceleration	2024-02-02	2024-04-19	Developing	+21.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing64

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution7

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 71/100
Current Relative Strength: -34.75
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -12.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -9.3%
Industrials regime cohort: 94th percentile17 in cohort

Test FOS trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.29×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.33×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore FOS Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.1167falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.1251falling

Trend Reference AUD 0.1258-12.6% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.2278-51.7% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.10shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.8%

Annualized volatility +76.9%

From structural high -61.4%

From structural low +10.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	-3.1%-20.0% to +7.1%	+22.2%	+22.2%	-4.1%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-1.6%-15.2% to +1.6%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-8.1%	+66.7%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	-24.6%-49.1% to +0.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-30.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-49.1%-49.1% to -49.1%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-59.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

FOS Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map