Weekly structural research · IST · Basic Materials

PETKM Stage Analysis

Petkim Petrokimya Holding Anonim Sirketi

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TRY 21.06Tenure NewBenchmark XU100.IS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 11−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 7/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +6.8%TRY 19.71 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	21.06	21.01	8.82	426978062	Balance	11	19
2026-09-18	21.44	20.88	7.48	595918000	Rotation Up	20	24
2026-09-11	24.68	20.75	13.63	985136034	Rotation Up	44	33
2026-09-04	20.06	20.56	-4.58	371544234	Downward Expansion	-11	10
2026-08-28	20.04	20.48	-9.07	299243418	Downward Expansion	-23	27
2026-08-21	20.58	20.43	-6.29	66278027	Deceleration	-26	35
2026-08-14	19.16	20.34	-11.12	78306590	Deceleration	-30	24
2026-08-07	18.52	20.28	-12.00	115569205	Balance	-28	16
2026-07-31	19.12	20.23	-7.34	89732176	Balance	-13	9
2026-07-24	22.02	20.14	2.76	72727274	Rotation Down	27	16
2026-07-17	20.94	19.96	-2.61	72551672	Rotation Down	-20	28
2026-07-10	19.34	19.82	-12.38	61630862	Rotation Down	-24	42
2026-07-03	18.93	19.75	-15.20	72404536	Deceleration	-29	36
2026-06-26	19.58	19.70	-11.83	31771274	Deceleration	-3	25
2026-06-19	20.12	19.61	-12.65	65856511	Deceleration	14	25
2026-06-12	19.39	19.51	-11.49	112557296	Deceleration	15	22
2026-06-05	20.84	19.42	-3.58	80139600	Upward Expansion	44	30
2026-05-29	22.10	19.29	2.19	71805239	Upward Expansion	60	47
2026-05-22	23.22	19.13	6.00	228582476	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-05-15	26.00	18.93	13.92	359570081	Upward Expansion	82	86
2026-05-08	24.72	18.64	3.25	405938867	Upward Expansion	79	84
2026-05-01	23.90	18.46	3.90	330269105	Upward Expansion	78	80
2026-04-24	23.16	18.28	0.76	482600535	Upward Expansion	79	75
2026-04-17	21.98	18.14	-5.75	719124772	Upward Expansion	73	59
2026-04-10	21.36	18.01	-5.40	819932144	Upward Expansion	73	63
2026-04-03	19.88	17.87	-4.44	622176193	Upward Expansion	59	62
2026-03-27	19.20	17.81	-6.20	853694681	Upward Expansion	55	59
2026-03-20	20.32	17.84	-3.69	380579571	Balance	72	60
2026-03-13	20.14	17.85	-5.08	655477835	Balance	43	29
2026-03-06	18.40	17.79	-11.41	770984998	Balance	18	15
2026-02-27	17.29	17.78	-22.59	270703463	Rotation Up	5	10
2026-02-20	17.39	17.78	-23.74	360076845	Rotation Up	15	34
2026-02-13	19.16	17.78	-17.88	415196779	Rotation Up	44	57
2026-02-06	17.71	17.72	-20.73	328020201	Rotation Up	15	27
2026-01-30	18.44	17.72	-19.74	352664539	Downward Expansion	29	29
2026-01-23	17.97	17.69	-17.09	312663444	Downward Expansion	-16	12
2026-01-16	17.30	17.65	-18.52	323326100	Downward Expansion	-53	45
2026-01-09	16.84	17.62	-18.06	238559457	Downward Expansion	-53	46
2026-01-02	16.58	17.60	-14.82	117302390	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2025-12-26	16.47	17.60	-14.23	152404216	Deceleration	-58	35
2025-12-19	16.86	17.60	-12.98	215118246	Deceleration	-16	14
2025-12-12	17.38	17.59	-10.48	192076601	Deceleration	-20	15
2025-12-05	17.17	17.61	-9.49	261173296	Deceleration	-24	24
2025-11-28	17.00	17.60	-9.83	321951516	Rotation Down	-17	29
2025-11-21	17.06	17.58	-10.05	367239989	Rotation Down	-18	35
2025-11-14	16.74	17.58	-9.11	299055413	Deceleration	-21	33
2025-11-07	17.05	17.58	-10.85	343777080	Deceleration	-18	22
2025-10-31	17.17	17.55	-11.00	234830151	Deceleration	5	10
2025-10-24	17.36	17.52	-10.29	701017832	Deceleration	9	7
2025-10-17	17.13	17.51	-5.67	958211481	Deceleration	20	13
2025-10-10	19.54	17.46	1.93	434448507	Deceleration	61	33
2025-10-03	18.29	17.42	-6.15	346408420	Deceleration	32	20
2025-09-26	19.00	17.40	-5.58	475301707	Deceleration	42	24
2025-09-19	18.05	17.32	-12.03	450827482	Upward Expansion	37	19
2025-09-12	17.11	17.26	-9.95	317571932	Upward Expansion	47	38
2025-09-05	18.18	17.25	-8.22	357197247	Upward Expansion	62	70
2025-08-29	20.00	17.22	-4.77	377955888	Upward Expansion	76	83
2025-08-22	20.82	17.13	-2.17	512202383	Upward Expansion	90	84
2025-08-15	18.29	17.04	-10.70	217913340	Balance	67	55
2025-08-08	18.09	17.03	-12.93	266539153	Balance	37	37
2025-08-01	17.27	17.03	-15.63	187787916	Balance	23	32
2025-07-25	17.36	17.07	-14.88	229382472	Balance	24	27
2025-07-18	17.39	17.12	-13.10	144177279	Balance	13	19
2025-07-11	17.74	17.16	-11.77	162894100	Balance	19	17
2025-07-04	17.53	17.20	-12.48	283556352	Balance	-8	5
2025-06-27	16.60	17.26	-9.83	180336436	Balance	-48	33
2025-06-20	16.55	17.32	-8.38	155364563	Balance	-48	36
2025-06-13	16.16	17.38	-11.80	90943953	Balance	-54	32
2025-06-06	16.67	17.45	-10.97	58624646	Balance	-44	18
2025-05-30	16.30	17.50	-8.77	121342343	Balance	-40	17
2025-05-23	16.75	17.58	-9.76	111380613	Balance	-31	15
2025-05-16	17.93	17.64	-6.70	415100230	Balance	-16	11
2025-05-09	17.00	17.68	-9.01	221288852	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2025-05-02	16.37	17.76	-10.39	111060834	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2025-04-25	16.84	17.88	-10.63	109434240	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2025-04-18	16.80	18.08	-10.00	206292286	Downward Expansion	-52	36
2025-04-11	16.13	18.30	-14.40	190695155	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2025-04-04	16.30	18.54	-13.79	94199169	Downward Expansion	-61	37
2025-03-28	17.07	18.79	-12.59	270560542	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-03-21	15.81	18.99	-13.87	416372388	Downward Expansion	-75	43
2025-03-14	18.28	19.27	-17.52	366668194	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2025-03-07	17.75	19.37	-18.09	410478902	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2025-02-28	16.32	19.51	-18.80	314578973	Downward Expansion	-76	80
2025-02-21	16.33	19.74	-18.96	292578381	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2025-02-14	16.93	20.05	-19.08	217777041	Downward Expansion	-76	64
2025-02-07	17.14	20.32	-19.37	254226847	Downward Expansion	-76	62
2025-01-31	17.49	20.54	-18.82	284627815	Downward Expansion	-73	57
2025-01-24	18.11	20.72	-17.36	266089246	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2025-01-17	17.99	20.84	-17.47	260263606	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2025-01-10	18.01	20.98	-17.31	454205058	Downward Expansion	-69	52
2025-01-03	18.35	21.10	-17.65	217480728	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2024-12-27	18.83	21.21	-15.61	170776950	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2024-12-20	18.61	21.26	-14.43	251376855	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2024-12-13	19.18	21.35	-15.65	233196056	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2024-12-06	19.12	21.40	-15.94	241420549	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2024-11-29	18.34	21.43	-16.25	250283566	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2024-11-22	18.35	21.52	-15.88	296849553	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2024-11-15	18.48	21.60	-14.44	234713719	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2024-11-08	18.06	21.65	-15.14	246186867	Rotation Down	-75	84
2024-11-01	18.58	21.74	-10.32	142377303	Rotation Down	-44	72
2024-10-25	18.85	21.78	-9.58	197164017	Rotation Down	-42	68
2024-10-18	19.08	21.81	-7.65	222459692	Rotation Down	-34	58
2024-10-11	19.18	21.94	-8.44	195310505	Balance	-34	46
2024-10-04	20.04	22.07	-7.38	292579958	Balance	-8	12
2024-09-27	22.74	22.21	-2.50	263710475	Upward Expansion	45	22
2024-09-20	23.70	22.24	0.33	224037407	Upward Expansion	49	27
2024-09-13	23.20	22.30	0.32	318060316	Upward Expansion	44	26
2024-09-06	23.82	22.35	2.07	324570995	Upward Expansion	39	19
2024-08-30	22.98	22.35	-2.20	228685957	Upward Expansion	29	20
2024-08-23	24.12	22.31	4.22	432739071	Upward Expansion	42	24
2024-08-16	21.32	22.24	-9.38	247648289	Upward Expansion	-4	7
2024-08-09	22.02	22.19	-7.50	399943671	Upward Expansion	53	39
2024-08-02	23.24	22.13	-7.82	410101881	Upward Expansion	64	71
2024-07-26	25.78	22.01	-1.85	435987914	Upward Expansion	86	87
2024-07-19	24.90	21.75	-7.54	371683134	Upward Expansion	75	76
2024-07-12	23.62	21.53	-11.71	401700608	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-07-05	23.10	21.39	-12.21	465277003	Balance	58	48
2024-06-28	21.74	21.29	-16.10	363775598	Balance	21	20
2024-06-21	22.08	21.29	-16.13	131480666	Balance	14	13
2024-06-14	21.54	21.29	-16.18	360292776	Balance	2	7
2024-06-07	21.64	21.31	-13.43	480246524	Balance	-1	5
2024-05-31	20.38	21.30	-20.87	401940262	Balance	-15	13
2024-05-24	21.24	21.27	-20.20	608434968	Balance	-2	7
2024-05-17	20.76	21.23	-22.27	385449142	Deceleration	-5	11
2024-05-10	20.16	21.21	-21.89	411950285	Deceleration	-23	22
2024-05-03	20.98	21.34	-19.56	352305844	Rotation Down	-18	22
2024-04-26	20.74	21.41	-18.03	274203707	Rotation Down	-21	37
2024-04-19	20.04	21.38	-19.42	315754430	Deceleration	-24	35
2024-04-12	20.56	21.37	-18.83	79447278	Deceleration	-9	27
2024-04-05	19.70	21.33	-21.11	479484194	Deceleration	-18	27
2024-03-29	19.83	21.37	-16.96	793771524	Deceleration	9	14
2024-03-22	22.94	21.40	-4.11	398829614	Upward Expansion	45	33
2024-03-15	23.24	21.29	-0.06	312924214	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-03-08	24.24	21.16	0.32	411470143	Upward Expansion	64	75
2024-03-01	23.74	20.98	-1.42	437341945	Upward Expansion	66	79
2024-02-23	25.44	20.79	2.20	759651770	Upward Expansion	83	87
2024-02-16	24.50	20.53	-0.66	730060503	Upward Expansion	82	81
2024-02-09	23.80	20.26	-1.61	710043661	Balance	77	67
2024-02-02	22.00	20.00	-5.22	562203398	Balance	51	35
2024-01-26	21.82	19.80	-2.86	438869628	Balance	46	26
2024-01-19	19.82	19.57	-8.30	338893940	Balance	-10	11
2024-01-12	20.40	19.39	-6.12	380366827	Balance	-12	25
2024-01-05	19.43	19.19	-7.06	323188195	Balance	-16	31
2023-12-29	18.21	19.05	-11.71	338757136	Balance	-21	26
2023-12-22	18.11	18.92	-13.92	353452128	Balance	-2	12
2023-12-15	19.58	18.76	-12.74	433922094	Upward Expansion	28	14
2023-12-08	20.12	18.52	-10.05	378139648	Upward Expansion	51	30
2023-12-01	21.70	18.27	-4.88	413617312	Upward Expansion	55	37
2023-11-24	21.92	17.95	-3.66	398100483	Deceleration	56	34
2023-11-17	22.36	17.65	-0.93	542353882	Deceleration	52	28
2023-11-10	21.18	17.38	-5.46	570433411	Deceleration	41	22
2023-11-03	19.46	17.17	-12.67	489507601	Upward Expansion	42	30
2023-10-27	20.08	16.99	-10.37	766010211	Upward Expansion	58	47
2023-10-20	20.34	16.78	-7.35	811703650	Upward Expansion	60	52
2023-10-13	24.00	16.60	0.75	1118385164	Upward Expansion	84	68
2023-10-06	23.10	16.30	-7.70	1460299616	Upward Expansion	84	62

Price vs TrendAbove+0.3%

Trend directionRising+5.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+6.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+8.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+20.7%

Price momentumPositive+9.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.07×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

11 / ±100

+34.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

19 /100

-7.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PETKM Directional State ↗ PETKM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance70

Rotation Up49

Upward Expansion35

Deceleration43

Rotation Down16

Downward Expansion14

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 27%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 21%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-09-11	2026-09-18	New	-13.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-09-04	New	+0.1%
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-08-21	New	+7.4%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-08-07	New	-3.1%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-07-24	New	+13.9%
Deceleration	2026-06-12	2026-07-03	New	-2.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-06-05	Developing	+8.5%
Balance	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	+10.4%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-02-27	New	-2.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-01-30	Developing	+11.2%
Deceleration	2025-12-05	2025-12-26	New	-4.1%
Rotation Down	2025-11-21	2025-11-28	New	-0.4%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2025-11-14	Developing	-11.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing82

Stage 3 · Distribution42

Stage 4 · Declining18

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus XU100.IS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 41/100
Current Relative Strength: 8.82
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +9.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +8.1%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 43th percentile7 in cohort

Test PETKM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.07×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PETKM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TRY 21.68rising

Slow Activity TRY 20.93rising

Trend Reference TRY 21.01+0.3% close margin

Current Fair Value TRY 19.71+6.8% close margin

Structural low TRY 18.28shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +11.2%

Annualized volatility +53.2%

From structural high -24.9%

From structural low +30.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs XU100.IS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+8.0%-9.9% to +52.5%	+84.6%	+84.6%	+2.7%	+38.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+13.4%-8.5% to +45.1%	+75.0%	+75.0%	-8.0%	+12.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+14.2%-13.4% to +31.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-12.2%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+45.0%+2.8% to +92.9%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-25.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PETKM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map