Weekly structural research ยท JKT ยท Basic Materials

TIRT Stage Analysis

PT Tirta Mahakam Resources Tbk

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close IDR 590.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^JKSE
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction 6โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 53/100directional strength
Maturity 20/100lifecycle context
Confidence 54/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +235.0%IDR 176.10 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25590.00601.5345.870Balance653
2026-09-18590.00615.2045.200Balance130
2026-09-11590.00617.0346.830Balance-1119
2026-09-04590.00617.3748.670Balance-1316
2026-08-28590.00616.3755.530Balance-1721
2026-08-21590.00612.2359.830Balance-1722
2026-08-14590.00608.1067.760Balance-1820
2026-08-07590.00599.1072.800Balance-913
2026-07-31590.00586.7783.310Balance1117
2026-07-24590.00571.7390.800Rotation Up2226
2026-07-17590.00555.9398.270Rotation Up2430
2026-07-10590.00540.13114.330Rotation Up3034
2026-07-03590.00524.33124.790Deceleration2831
2026-06-26655.00507.63159.18710900Deceleration3627
2026-06-19595.00487.70135.81527400Deceleration2214
2026-06-12525.00469.33123.40784400Deceleration-2330
2026-06-05392.00453.3086.57158700Deceleration-3361
2026-05-29462.00441.70107.56669300Deceleration-752
2026-05-22382.00427.7777.152008000Deceleration-1835
2026-05-15420.00416.5084.171452700Deceleration-1328
2026-05-08505.00403.97120.661831400Deceleration119
2026-05-01545.00388.60148.161437700Deceleration2527
2026-04-24585.00371.90171.832302400Deceleration2835
2026-04-17570.00353.87159.854101200Deceleration3436
2026-04-10630.00336.33207.946175100Upward Expansion4435
2026-04-03600.00316.80229.177553500Upward Expansion5254
2026-03-27720.00298.27315.304201500Upward Expansion6767
2026-03-20890.00275.73453.815289900Upward Expansion6969
2026-03-13900.00247.53520.136374900Rotation Up7270
2026-03-061,000.00219.00630.880Rotation Up9779
2026-02-271,000.00187.13676.5517335000Upward Expansion10080
2026-02-20645.00155.27480.799233700Upward Expansion9177
2026-02-13600.00135.23506.1380431400Upward Expansion9590
2026-02-06560.00116.70555.0035428700Rotation Up99100
2026-01-30466.0099.50486.660Rotation Up9980
2026-01-23466.0085.43506.893213900Rotation Up10080
2026-01-16320.0071.37357.553647200Upward Expansion10080
2026-01-09220.0062.17243.778384300Upward Expansion10095
2026-01-02139.0056.30134.582623700Upward Expansion99100
2025-12-26116.0053.13107.430Upward Expansion9398
2025-12-19116.0050.73110.650Upward Expansion9799
2025-12-12116.0048.33113.953793300Upward Expansion9699
2025-12-0589.0045.9368.531833800Upward Expansion9598
2025-11-2857.0044.4311.70598300Upward Expansion9397
2025-11-2144.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1444.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0744.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3144.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2444.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1744.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1044.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0344.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2644.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1944.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1244.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0544.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2944.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2244.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1544.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0844.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0144.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2544.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1844.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1144.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0444.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2744.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2044.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1344.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0644.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3044.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2344.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1644.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0944.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0244.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2544.0037.3036.960Deceleration5682
2025-04-1844.0036.8744.580Deceleration5065
2025-04-1144.0036.9050.990Upward Expansion4649
2025-03-2844.0037.8746.660Upward Expansion4650
2025-03-2144.0039.2752.550Balance4246
2025-03-1444.0039.6346.650Balance1431
2025-03-0744.0039.3743.970Balance1318
2025-02-2844.0038.7052.230Upward Expansion2321
2025-02-2144.0037.9740.410Upward Expansion5232
2025-02-1444.0037.3343.680Upward Expansion5536
2025-02-0744.0036.6041.300Upward Expansion5650
2025-01-3144.0035.7033.800Upward Expansion4757
2025-01-2444.0034.8032.292538100Upward Expansion4648
2025-01-1748.0033.8744.089467600Upward Expansion5739
2025-01-1049.0032.7748.336718300Upward Expansion6236
2025-01-0332.0031.73-4.115207600Upward Expansion3527
2024-12-2730.0031.57-9.371464900Upward Expansion3236
2024-12-2039.0031.7717.444870700Deceleration4343
2024-12-1347.0031.2734.2020116800Deceleration6044
2024-12-0644.0030.3324.361162800Deceleration2817
2024-11-2929.0029.43-15.322451800Deceleration-1722
2024-11-2221.0029.00-40.1113458100Deceleration-2330
2024-11-1520.0028.73-43.635082200Deceleration-2526
2024-11-0825.0028.60-31.962478200Deceleration-1825
2024-11-0126.0028.50-32.313255000Deceleration-1828
2024-10-2526.0028.77-34.943038500Deceleration-1931
2024-10-1822.0029.57-46.198463000Deceleration-1731
2024-10-1124.0030.50-40.3810023200Deceleration-1331
2024-10-0429.0031.37-28.772278300Deceleration1729
2024-09-2736.0032.07-14.8916996300Upward Expansion4228
2024-09-2031.0032.53-27.768500800Upward Expansion5857
2024-09-1345.0033.172.802981700Rotation Up6788
2024-09-0673.0033.3367.88104592300Rotation Up5986
2024-08-3086.0032.57100.6618317800Rotation Up6989
2024-08-2355.0031.3732.289865300Rotation Up5571
2024-08-1636.0031.20-12.113007800Downward Expansion2030
2024-08-0924.0031.67-40.493705100Downward Expansion-3024
2024-08-0222.0032.53-46.5728700Downward Expansion-3824
2024-07-2625.0033.47-39.99362100Downward Expansion-4536
2024-07-1922.0034.30-47.91655400Downward Expansion-6365
2024-07-1217.0035.23-60.49745800Downward Expansion-6683
2024-07-0517.0036.33-60.742051000Downward Expansion-6564
2024-06-2816.0037.43-62.681479800Downward Expansion-7159
2024-06-2115.0038.57-64.67215200Downward Expansion-6546
2024-06-1418.0039.73-57.3998000Downward Expansion-5636
2024-06-0727.0040.80-38.503778600Downward Expansion-3935
2024-05-3136.0041.57-19.73938900Downward Expansion-4748
2024-05-2424.0042.03-48.71288500Downward Expansion-6667
2024-05-1719.0042.90-60.41352100Downward Expansion-6769
2024-05-1017.0043.93-63.95411000Downward Expansion-6989
2024-05-0316.0045.03-66.76875400Downward Expansion-7892
2024-04-2613.0046.17-73.002774400Downward Expansion-9799
2024-04-1916.0047.40-67.51520200Downward Expansion-9699
2024-04-0522.0048.53-57.15118100Downward Expansion-9598
2024-03-2934.0049.47-34.57159800Downward Expansion-9397
2024-03-2250.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-1550.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0850.00โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0150.0050.00-5.253000Balance00
2024-02-2350.0050.00-5.160Balance00
2024-02-1650.0050.00-5.790Balance00
2024-02-0950.0050.00-4.60500Balance00
2024-02-0250.0050.00-4.733600Balance00
2024-01-2650.0050.00-3.46900Balance00
2024-01-1950.0050.00-4.731800Balance00
2024-01-1250.0050.00-5.00131400Balance00
2024-01-0550.0050.00-6.57248200Balance00
2023-12-2950.0050.00-5.741200Balance00
2023-12-2250.0050.00-5.421300Balance00
2023-12-1550.0050.00-4.9219600Balance00
2023-12-0850.0050.00-4.6758800Balance00
2023-12-0150.0050.00-3.59234600Balance00
2023-11-2450.0050.00-3.091700Balance00
2023-11-1750.0050.00-2.821000Balance00
2023-11-1050.0050.00-0.6120400Balance00
2023-11-0350.0050.00-0.453100Balance00
2023-10-2750.0050.00-0.16387900Balance00
2023-10-2050.00โ€”โ€”6200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-1350.00โ€”โ€”1600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-0650.00โ€”โ€”3400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-09-2950.00โ€”โ€”500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-09-2250.00โ€”โ€”2800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-1.9%
Trend directionRising+8.2%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+235.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-164.6%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+45.9%
Relative strength directionWeakening-113.3%
Price momentumNegative-18.1%
Volume balanceSupply-ledร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

6 / ยฑ100

+23.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

53 /100

+32.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance52
Rotation Up15
Upward Expansion38
Deceleration49
Rotation Down38
Downward Expansion59

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 ยท 118 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 25%Deceleration 22%Downward Expansion 17%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-07-312026-09-25Developing+0.0%
Rotation Up2026-07-102026-07-24New+0.0%
Deceleration2026-04-172026-07-03Developing+3.5%
Upward Expansion2026-03-202026-04-10New-29.2%
Rotation Up2026-03-062026-03-13New-10.0%
Upward Expansion2026-02-132026-02-27New+66.7%
Rotation Up2026-01-232026-02-06New+20.2%
Upward Expansion2025-11-282026-01-16Developing+461.4%
Deceleration2025-04-182025-04-25New+0.0%
Upward Expansion2025-03-282025-04-11New+0.0%
Balance2025-03-072025-03-21New+0.0%
Upward Expansion2024-12-272025-02-28Developing+46.7%
Deceleration2024-10-042024-12-20Developing+34.5%
Upward Expansion2024-09-202024-09-27New+16.1%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing25
Stage 2 ยท Advancing44
Stage 3 ยท Distribution63
Stage 4 ยท Declining29

Legacy result: Stage 3 ยท Stage 3A ยท Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^JKSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
30/100
Current Relative Strength
45.87
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-18.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-6.0%
Basic Materials regime cohort
33th percentile18 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.00ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volumeร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity IDR 590.00stable
Slow Activity IDR 574.33falling
Trend Reference IDR 601.53-1.9% close margin
Current Fair Value IDR 176.10+235.0% close margin
Structural low IDR 346.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +0.8%
Annualized volatility +75.2%
From structural high -41.0%
From structural low +1240.9%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^JKSE Regime survived Read
Near term11+0.0%-56.0% to +0.0%+0.0%+0.0%-2.7%+63.6%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate5+0.0%-52.0% to +400.0%+40.0%+40.0%-5.6%+20.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended4+47.3%-52.0% to +1331.8%+50.0%+50.0%+41.6%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2-23.0%-58.0% to +12.0%+50.0%+50.0%-31.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context