Weekly structural research · GER · Consumer Cyclical

DIE Stage Analysis

Dierig Holding AG

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 8.30Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI
Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction 59−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 39/100directional strength
Maturity 11/100lifecycle context
Confidence 71/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -4.0%EUR 8.65 · improving
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-258.308.19-1.09289Upward Expansion5939
2026-09-188.258.19-1.392848Upward Expansion5055
2026-09-118.308.18-1.941517Upward Expansion5369
2026-09-048.308.17-3.863Upward Expansion5369
2026-08-288.308.15-5.961Balance5455
2026-08-218.358.14-4.040Balance5836
2026-08-148.308.13-5.85457Balance179
2026-08-078.108.12-7.86629Balance-2218
2026-07-317.958.11-7.3570Balance-4032
2026-07-248.058.11-4.490Balance-2015
2026-07-178.208.10-1.870Balance2315
2026-07-108.058.09-4.700Balance-2227
2026-07-038.108.08-6.960Balance515
2026-06-268.108.08-3.092Balance418
2026-06-198.108.08-4.564Balance618
2026-06-128.108.07-3.55195Balance1521
2026-06-058.058.07-4.94500Upward Expansion1716
2026-05-298.208.08-4.76153Upward Expansion4022
2026-05-228.158.07-4.81743Upward Expansion5638
2026-05-158.398.081.51450Upward Expansion7071
2026-05-088.258.07-1.971635Upward Expansion6474
2026-05-018.398.07-0.310Upward Expansion7681
2026-04-248.398.060.102872Rotation Up7873
2026-04-178.348.06-3.01596Rotation Up5152
2026-04-108.158.05-1.87841Rotation Up3025
2026-04-038.158.050.612267Rotation Up3227
2026-03-278.158.064.381702Rotation Up2439
2026-03-208.058.072.790Rotation Up1837
2026-03-138.108.08-1.27302Balance1730
2026-03-068.158.09-1.37593Balance724
2026-02-278.208.10-7.46644Downward Expansion914
2026-02-208.008.11-9.69852Downward Expansion-3520
2026-02-137.968.13-9.14510Downward Expansion-4127
2026-02-067.868.15-9.7025Downward Expansion-5133
2026-01-307.918.18-8.791172Downward Expansion-4634
2026-01-237.968.21-9.87725Downward Expansion-5042
2026-01-167.968.25-11.64401Downward Expansion-6455
2026-01-097.868.28-12.99375Downward Expansion-6864
2026-01-027.868.33-10.92201Downward Expansion-7069
2025-12-267.868.37-10.63222Downward Expansion-7675
2025-12-197.868.41-10.882847Downward Expansion-8489
2025-12-127.868.45-10.933285Downward Expansion-9192
2025-12-058.008.49-9.132875Downward Expansion-7468
2025-11-288.058.52-8.25225Downward Expansion-7074
2025-11-218.008.56-6.391400Downward Expansion-8386
2025-11-148.108.58-8.85754Downward Expansion-7173
2025-11-078.108.57-8.23200Downward Expansion-7673
2025-10-318.158.56-9.721668Downward Expansion-7266
2025-10-248.208.55-10.78300Downward Expansion-6662
2025-10-178.208.55-9.72334Downward Expansion-6776
2025-10-108.258.54-11.26120Downward Expansion-6478
2025-10-038.208.55-12.850Rotation Down-6983
2025-09-268.208.54-11.120Rotation Down-4564
2025-09-198.208.53-11.282674Rotation Down-4749
2025-09-128.208.52-12.1018128Rotation Down-5146
2025-09-058.448.51-9.652250Rotation Down-2746
2025-08-298.398.50-11.90290Rotation Down-3060
2025-08-228.398.50-14.10855Rotation Down-3362
2025-08-158.398.50-14.674086Deceleration-3455
2025-08-088.448.50-14.04600Deceleration-1231
2025-08-018.498.50-11.446260Deceleration-826
2025-07-258.688.49-12.922834Deceleration2228
2025-07-188.598.48-14.623102Deceleration2425
2025-07-118.688.46-14.087553Deceleration3824
2025-07-048.838.46-11.436172Upward Expansion4637
2025-06-278.978.45-11.392507Upward Expansion5044
2025-06-209.078.44-8.352483Upward Expansion6457
2025-06-139.128.43-9.00500Upward Expansion6772
2025-06-069.078.42-12.931350Upward Expansion6681
2025-05-309.178.41-11.412920Rotation Up7486
2025-05-239.178.40-10.564879Rotation Up5079
2025-05-168.928.38-13.946733Rotation Up4069
2025-05-099.078.39-12.04433Rotation Up4150
2025-05-029.078.39-10.871889Rotation Up3832
2025-04-258.648.39-12.253082Downward Expansion-1112
2025-04-187.888.40-16.436613Downward Expansion-5752
2025-04-117.748.44-15.11121Downward Expansion-7149
2025-04-047.798.48-16.154233Downward Expansion-6135
2025-03-288.128.52-20.09480Downward Expansion-3721
2025-03-218.128.55-22.005824Downward Expansion-4430
2025-03-148.318.58-20.991623Downward Expansion-5846
2025-03-078.128.60-23.292703Downward Expansion-6374
2025-02-287.848.62-24.94957Downward Expansion-7283
2025-02-217.748.65-25.453199Downward Expansion-8583
2025-02-147.888.69-25.355109Downward Expansion-8265
2025-02-078.368.72-18.86400Downward Expansion-4537
2025-01-318.368.74-19.180Downward Expansion-4841
2025-01-248.408.77-18.00120Downward Expansion-6050
2025-01-178.368.79-17.08288Downward Expansion-6251
2025-01-108.368.82-14.84908Downward Expansion-6568
2025-01-038.228.86-15.472500Downward Expansion-7784
2024-12-278.318.90-15.341469Downward Expansion-7888
2024-12-208.228.94-16.322100Downward Expansion-9088
2024-12-138.558.98-15.68700Downward Expansion-7172
2024-12-068.509.01-16.511541Downward Expansion-7665
2024-11-298.739.03-11.47600Downward Expansion-6049
2024-11-228.699.04-10.921467Downward Expansion-6460
2024-11-158.789.06-9.971610Downward Expansion-5647
2024-11-088.889.07-9.570Downward Expansion-4845
2024-11-018.839.08-10.942150Rotation Down-5046
2024-10-258.599.08-14.951124Rotation Down-5430
2024-10-189.119.10-11.540Balance1827
2024-10-119.119.09-11.000Balance-116
2024-10-049.119.08-10.500Balance-68
2024-09-279.119.08-12.74268Downward Expansion-2012
2024-09-209.079.07-10.30901Downward Expansion-3018
2024-09-138.789.07-13.572742Downward Expansion-5430
2024-09-069.029.08-9.902Downward Expansion-3626
2024-08-309.079.09-12.820Downward Expansion-4428
2024-08-239.079.10-12.11944Downward Expansion-5942
2024-08-168.839.11-13.502165Downward Expansion-6471
2024-08-098.789.13-11.61357Downward Expansion-7077
2024-08-028.789.15-11.8280Downward Expansion-7477
2024-07-268.789.17-15.910Balance-7069
2024-07-198.889.18-14.32525Balance-4744
2024-07-129.079.20-15.642Balance-2227
2024-07-059.119.21-14.460Balance-1620
2024-06-289.169.24-13.440Rotation Up-29
2024-06-219.219.23-13.12283Rotation Up2322
2024-06-149.359.25-11.51723Rotation Up3355
2024-06-079.409.27-14.10286Rotation Up2554
2024-05-319.549.30-13.062632Rotation Up3855
2024-05-249.639.32-13.601493Rotation Up4844
2024-05-179.269.34-17.511628Balance111
2024-05-109.179.38-19.10528Downward Expansion-2821
2024-05-039.079.41-17.092060Downward Expansion-3223
2024-04-269.179.45-17.5169Downward Expansion-3423
2024-04-199.179.48-16.051011Downward Expansion-4232
2024-04-129.079.52-18.23679Downward Expansion-4844
2024-04-059.039.57-20.20528Downward Expansion-6257
2024-03-298.989.61-22.46603Downward Expansion-6579
2024-03-229.039.66-21.37225Downward Expansion-6786
2024-03-158.899.71-21.99474Downward Expansion-7891
2024-03-088.989.76-21.200Downward Expansion-7087
2024-03-018.939.81-21.75892Downward Expansion-7481
2024-02-238.939.86-20.912580Downward Expansion-7567
2024-02-169.179.92-18.051996Downward Expansion-6344
2024-02-099.179.96-17.65590Downward Expansion-6440
2024-02-029.3510.01-16.54618Downward Expansion-4834
2024-01-269.4410.05-16.46800Downward Expansion-5640
2024-01-199.4410.10-14.961396Downward Expansion-6148
2024-01-129.3510.14-17.061Downward Expansion-6253
2024-01-059.3510.19-17.06500Downward Expansion-6657
2023-12-299.2110.25-19.631614Downward Expansion-7560
2023-12-229.4410.31-18.09400Downward Expansion-6860
2023-12-159.3510.37-19.762031Downward Expansion-7576
2023-12-089.9110.42-15.774531Downward Expansion-6479
2023-12-019.0310.47-22.097758Downward Expansion-9396
2023-11-249.7210.55-14.831502Downward Expansion-8371
2023-11-179.8110.59-13.953852Downward Expansion-8358
2023-11-1010.2810.63-6.402242Deceleration-4233
2023-11-0310.2810.65-6.5615Downward Expansion-4539
2023-10-2710.2810.67-3.90327Downward Expansion-5848
2023-10-2010.2810.70-5.13373Downward Expansion-6155
2023-10-1310.2810.72-8.162000Downward Expansion-6254
2023-10-0610.2810.74-9.141327Downward Expansion-6359
Price vs TrendAbove+1.3%
Trend directionRising+1.1%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-4.0%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+4.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.1%
Relative strength directionImproving+2.0%
Price momentumPositive+1.8%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.47×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

59 / ±100

+5.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

39 /100

-16.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

DIE Directional State ↗ DIE Momentum Intelligence ↗
Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance35
Rotation Up58
Upward Expansion77
Deceleration59
Rotation Down15
Downward Expansion4

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 10%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 55%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-09-042026-09-25New+0.0%
Balance2026-06-122026-08-28Developing+2.5%
Upward Expansion2026-05-012026-06-05Developing-4.1%
Rotation Up2026-03-202026-04-24Developing+4.2%
Balance2026-03-062026-03-13New-0.6%
Downward Expansion2025-10-102026-02-27Established-0.6%
Rotation Down2025-08-222025-10-03Developing-2.3%
Deceleration2025-07-112025-08-15Developing-3.4%
Upward Expansion2025-06-062025-07-04Developing-2.7%
Rotation Up2025-05-022025-05-30Developing+1.1%
Downward Expansion2024-11-082025-04-25Established-2.7%
Rotation Down2024-10-252024-11-01New+2.7%
Balance2024-10-042024-10-18New+0.0%
Downward Expansion2024-08-022024-09-27Developing+3.8%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing62
Stage 2 · Advancing57
Stage 3 · Distribution55
Stage 4 · Declining43

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
33/100
Current Relative Strength
-1.09
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+1.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-12.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort
55th percentile11 in cohort
Test DIE trend persistence
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.74×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.47×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore DIE Volume & Price ↗
Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 8.29rising
Slow Activity EUR 8.20rising
Trend Reference EUR 8.19+1.3% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 8.65-4.0% close margin
Structural low EUR 7.95shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +1.3%
Annualized volatility +9.4%
From structural high -2.8%
From structural low +6.9%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^GDAXI Regime survived Read
Near term7-2.3%-4.8% to +5.8%+14.3%+14.3%-1.0%+57.1%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate3-5.3%-7.0% to -1.3%+0.0%+0.0%-4.0%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended2-8.1%-11.8% to -4.5%+0.0%+0.0%-3.1%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2-12.8%-14.3% to -11.3%+0.0%+0.0%-4.7%+50.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context