Weekly structural research · TOR · Energy

PEY Stage Analysis

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close CAD 23.69Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GSPTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -61−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 46/100directional strength

Maturity 23/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +36.3%CAD 17.38 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	23.69	25.24	-7.31	3729500	Balance	-61	46
2026-09-18	24.39	25.32	-4.44	3484100	Balance	-40	21
2026-09-11	24.31	25.35	-4.20	2139600	Balance	-41	16
2026-09-04	25.35	25.40	-2.12	2686900	Balance	-6	5
2026-08-28	24.92	25.39	-3.65	3031700	Balance	-18	11
2026-08-21	25.17	25.36	-2.72	459200	Balance	-22	14
2026-08-14	24.36	25.31	-5.99	602300	Balance	-34	25
2026-08-07	24.78	25.25	-3.43	474300	Balance	-25	21
2026-07-31	25.61	25.14	3.15	399900	Balance	6	9
2026-07-24	26.01	25.02	4.48	832300	Rotation Down	3	10
2026-07-17	24.14	24.90	-2.56	673200	Rotation Down	-33	53
2026-07-10	23.59	24.81	-4.85	1125600	Rotation Down	-42	56
2026-07-03	24.02	24.77	-2.99	317700	Rotation Down	-36	45
2026-06-26	24.08	24.72	-1.90	527700	Deceleration	-24	33
2026-06-19	24.32	24.65	-0.92	565300	Deceleration	-1	11
2026-06-12	25.13	24.53	2.40	416800	Deceleration	11	6
2026-06-05	25.09	24.39	3.76	619500	Deceleration	27	16
2026-05-29	24.71	24.22	1.22	3769000	Deceleration	23	15
2026-05-22	26.47	24.06	9.52	2404100	Deceleration	42	27
2026-05-15	26.53	23.83	12.10	3625900	Deceleration	30	15
2026-05-08	24.77	23.56	4.19	4786200	Deceleration	12	15
2026-05-01	25.86	23.34	9.44	4700000	Deceleration	26	23
2026-04-24	24.09	23.09	2.25	4105600	Deceleration	17	24
2026-04-17	24.33	22.89	2.06	3896500	Deceleration	32	26
2026-04-10	25.32	22.65	8.32	4511200	Upward Expansion	46	35
2026-04-03	25.51	22.39	11.34	6013400	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-03-27	26.50	22.13	20.17	6344800	Upward Expansion	67	66
2026-03-20	28.17	21.84	30.92	9168300	Upward Expansion	78	82
2026-03-13	28.60	21.50	28.85	5084100	Upward Expansion	89	85
2026-03-06	27.26	21.16	21.69	5189100	Upward Expansion	86	89
2026-02-27	26.09	20.85	12.96	4245300	Upward Expansion	78	88
2026-02-20	25.51	20.59	12.73	4306900	Upward Expansion	75	88
2026-02-13	25.60	20.35	16.21	4798700	Upward Expansion	83	92
2026-02-06	25.20	20.11	17.19	6885300	Upward Expansion	86	90
2026-01-30	24.12	19.88	14.78	4770200	Upward Expansion	82	68
2026-01-23	23.62	19.67	8.86	4750100	Upward Expansion	80	60
2026-01-16	22.62	19.49	4.97	6963300	Upward Expansion	71	51
2026-01-09	21.35	19.38	0.63	5331200	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-01-02	22.13	19.32	6.78	3383800	Upward Expansion	66	58
2025-12-26	22.12	19.19	6.58	1679100	Upward Expansion	68	63
2025-12-19	21.60	19.03	5.10	7076400	Upward Expansion	67	68
2025-12-12	22.38	18.90	10.02	3694600	Upward Expansion	77	85
2025-12-05	22.55	18.74	12.08	3671200	Upward Expansion	88	93
2025-11-28	21.83	18.58	8.75	3866300	Upward Expansion	87	93
2025-11-21	20.77	18.40	8.02	7131200	Upward Expansion	76	87
2025-11-14	21.04	18.25	9.05	5199800	Upward Expansion	90	92
2025-11-07	20.01	18.11	5.58	4634400	Upward Expansion	81	84
2025-10-31	19.80	17.96	3.61	4920000	Upward Expansion	83	81
2025-10-24	19.73	17.82	3.29	5187300	Deceleration	82	66
2025-10-17	18.34	17.72	-3.00	2908800	Deceleration	42	29
2025-10-10	18.26	17.65	-2.39	5924800	Deceleration	37	19
2025-10-03	18.21	17.54	-4.54	4143100	Deceleration	20	12
2025-09-26	18.07	17.42	-3.03	4710900	Deceleration	8	19
2025-09-19	17.25	17.31	-7.29	7110400	Deceleration	-8	26
2025-09-12	17.47	17.24	-4.46	3621100	Deceleration	-0	12
2025-09-05	17.56	17.14	-3.06	2713000	Deceleration	8	10
2025-08-29	17.90	17.04	0.72	3494500	Deceleration	21	12
2025-08-22	18.11	16.92	2.96	3809400	Deceleration	36	21
2025-08-15	18.21	16.82	5.36	4584700	Deceleration	38	25
2025-08-08	18.01	16.71	5.06	2888000	Deceleration	40	28
2025-08-01	18.29	16.63	9.92	2914900	Deceleration	41	30
2025-07-25	18.33	16.54	8.73	3968100	Deceleration	42	30
2025-07-18	18.39	16.43	10.19	2705300	Upward Expansion	46	34
2025-07-11	18.23	16.29	10.85	3519900	Upward Expansion	58	45
2025-07-04	17.78	16.17	8.33	2935000	Upward Expansion	61	55
2025-06-27	18.36	16.07	13.70	3535900	Upward Expansion	64	69
2025-06-20	19.32	15.96	20.88	5870500	Upward Expansion	76	79
2025-06-13	19.42	15.83	22.10	3542300	Upward Expansion	83	76
2025-06-06	18.21	15.65	15.37	4021100	Upward Expansion	71	66
2025-05-30	17.42	15.50	11.78	3443600	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-05-23	17.61	15.37	14.53	3122000	Upward Expansion	67	67
2025-05-16	17.76	15.24	15.42	5044700	Upward Expansion	72	66
2025-05-09	17.82	15.11	18.87	4549800	Upward Expansion	77	66
2025-05-02	16.32	14.98	10.73	3161000	Upward Expansion	57	38
2025-04-25	16.42	14.92	13.11	2944700	Upward Expansion	60	39
2025-04-18	16.71	14.82	17.80	3526200	Upward Expansion	69	56
2025-04-11	15.60	14.70	13.20	8282000	Upward Expansion	53	55
2025-04-04	15.49	14.61	14.56	5805200	Upward Expansion	55	61
2025-03-28	16.74	14.50	16.25	4755200	Upward Expansion	78	71
2025-03-21	16.10	14.38	11.24	5314600	Deceleration	68	42
2025-03-14	15.19	14.27	7.05	6247100	Deceleration	42	21
2025-03-07	14.41	14.19	0.88	4937200	Deceleration	14	8
2025-02-28	14.72	14.12	0.51	4383100	Deceleration	31	15
2025-02-21	15.22	14.03	4.97	3455500	Deceleration	41	22
2025-02-14	14.56	13.95	-0.73	2553900	Deceleration	29	19
2025-02-07	14.49	13.88	-0.88	3962000	Upward Expansion	34	19
2025-01-31	14.41	13.83	-1.61	4044000	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-01-24	15.03	13.77	3.09	3920500	Upward Expansion	59	51
2025-01-17	14.93	13.70	4.27	4666900	Upward Expansion	60	59
2025-01-10	15.66	13.61	11.00	3819700	Upward Expansion	73	57
2025-01-03	15.52	13.52	9.03	3665200	Upward Expansion	75	52
2024-12-27	15.12	13.43	7.73	1932800	Upward Expansion	68	44
2024-12-20	14.17	13.37	2.27	3720500	Upward Expansion	57	44
2024-12-13	14.67	13.34	3.36	4677800	Upward Expansion	62	74
2024-12-06	14.58	13.31	1.39	3373500	Upward Expansion	62	75
2024-11-29	15.07	13.26	5.27	3979300	Upward Expansion	74	77
2024-11-22	15.45	13.18	9.07	5960500	Deceleration	84	66
2024-11-15	14.06	13.11	1.72	5341200	Deceleration	63	39
2024-11-08	13.68	13.07	-0.41	3307500	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-11-01	13.50	13.04	0.19	4593300	Upward Expansion	57	48
2024-10-25	13.91	13.03	2.15	3360200	Upward Expansion	62	69
2024-10-18	13.61	13.00	-1.67	4138100	Upward Expansion	63	71
2024-10-11	14.20	12.96	3.81	5071700	Upward Expansion	73	75
2024-10-04	14.33	12.89	6.09	8513000	Balance	80	69
2024-09-27	13.44	12.83	0.37	8898100	Balance	35	32
2024-09-20	13.10	12.79	-1.77	5290500	Balance	26	14
2024-09-13	12.86	12.74	-2.21	5269800	Balance	7	8
2024-09-06	12.34	12.69	-2.85	4497400	Balance	-10	10
2024-08-30	12.93	12.64	-0.59	4247800	Deceleration	27	15
2024-08-23	12.93	12.57	-0.16	4045900	Deceleration	20	12
2024-08-16	12.90	12.50	0.89	5513900	Deceleration	17	13
2024-08-09	12.28	12.43	-0.59	2804200	Deceleration	-16	24
2024-08-02	12.00	12.40	-2.22	5489000	Deceleration	-5	11
2024-07-26	12.91	12.36	2.74	4434400	Deceleration	17	8
2024-07-19	12.39	12.26	-0.40	5063600	Deceleration	5	7
2024-07-12	12.96	12.19	4.61	3070400	Deceleration	18	14
2024-07-05	12.69	12.09	5.77	1895100	Deceleration	13	16
2024-06-28	12.74	11.99	7.59	4338500	Deceleration	25	20
2024-06-21	12.37	11.92	6.57	4614800	Deceleration	25	18
2024-06-14	12.75	11.87	9.99	4999100	Upward Expansion	42	30
2024-06-07	13.05	11.80	11.29	5006700	Upward Expansion	57	46
2024-05-31	13.26	11.74	12.45	5270400	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-05-24	13.28	11.71	12.98	4902600	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-05-17	13.71	11.66	16.55	5320000	Upward Expansion	79	60
2024-05-10	13.00	11.59	11.98	3758800	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-05-03	12.88	11.54	13.32	4956600	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-04-26	13.21	11.48	16.73	4508300	Upward Expansion	74	77
2024-04-19	12.83	11.41	14.76	3571500	Upward Expansion	65	78
2024-04-12	12.99	11.32	16.28	3259000	Upward Expansion	73	82
2024-04-05	13.16	11.24	16.38	3001700	Upward Expansion	82	84
2024-03-29	12.77	11.15	13.93	3549800	Upward Expansion	77	83
2024-03-22	12.39	11.07	11.98	2934800	Upward Expansion	70	81
2024-03-15	12.12	10.97	10.57	5797400	Upward Expansion	65	80
2024-03-08	12.60	10.90	15.85	4630000	Upward Expansion	84	86
2024-03-01	12.21	10.81	13.71	5300000	Upward Expansion	80	74
2024-02-23	11.72	10.71	10.34	3104900	Deceleration	70	51
2024-02-16	11.35	10.63	7.99	3794300	Deceleration	62	33
2024-02-09	10.74	10.55	3.86	3666200	Deceleration	35	20
2024-02-02	10.77	10.49	4.10	3258800	Deceleration	38	28
2024-01-26	11.04	10.43	6.85	3756600	Deceleration	43	32
2024-01-19	10.75	10.35	5.32	3615900	Deceleration	31	22
2024-01-12	11.29	10.27	10.24	4262200	Deceleration	43	22
2024-01-05	10.82	10.18	6.12	3171000	Deceleration	8	17
2023-12-29	10.06	10.11	-1.31	2043900	Deceleration	-22	37
2023-12-22	10.14	10.06	-0.34	5001600	Deceleration	-2	27
2023-12-15	9.94	10.02	-0.84	5955600	Deceleration	-7	27
2023-12-08	9.84	9.99	-1.02	4710700	Deceleration	0	21
2023-12-01	10.41	9.96	3.99	4149500	Deceleration	28	26
2023-11-24	10.89	9.92	10.57	2550600	Upward Expansion	46	34
2023-11-17	10.91	9.88	10.43	4501300	Upward Expansion	61	50
2023-11-10	11.25	9.84	16.87	5544000	Upward Expansion	66	61
2023-11-03	12.33	9.79	27.16	3984600	Upward Expansion	86	91
2023-10-27	11.81	9.69	29.38	3333800	Upward Expansion	78	88
2023-10-20	11.46	9.61	23.90	3835900	Upward Expansion	74	87
2023-10-13	11.52	9.54	23.06	2553500	Upward Expansion	82	83
2023-10-06	11.16	9.46	21.01	5728900	Upward Expansion	79	77

Price vs TrendBelow-6.1%

Trend directionRising+1.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+36.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-7.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.4%

Price momentumNegative-10.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.69×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-61 / ±100

-43.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

46 /100

+35.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PEY Directional State ↗ PEY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance34

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration36

Rotation Down56

Downward Expansion79

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Upward Expansion 52%Deceleration 37%Rotation Down 3%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-09-25	Developing	-7.5%
Rotation Down	2026-07-03	2026-07-24	New	+8.3%
Deceleration	2026-04-17	2026-06-26	Developing	-1.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2026-04-10	Established	+27.9%
Deceleration	2025-07-25	2025-10-24	Established	+7.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-28	2025-07-18	Established	+9.9%
Deceleration	2025-02-14	2025-03-21	Developing	+10.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-02-07	Developing	-3.8%
Deceleration	2024-11-15	2024-11-22	New	+9.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-11	2024-11-08	Developing	-3.6%
Balance	2024-09-06	2024-10-04	Developing	+16.1%
Deceleration	2024-06-21	2024-08-30	Developing	+4.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-01	2024-06-14	Established	+4.5%
Deceleration	2023-12-01	2024-02-23	Established	+12.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing32

Stage 2 · Advancing28

Stage 3 · Distribution70

Stage 4 · Declining72

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GSPTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: -7.31
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -10.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -22.6%
Energy regime cohort: 92th percentile12 in cohort

Test PEY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.34×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.69×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PEY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CAD 24.30falling

Slow Activity CAD 24.82falling

Trend Reference CAD 25.24-6.1% close margin

Current Fair Value CAD 17.38+36.3% close margin

Structural low CAD 23.29shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.2%

Annualized volatility +25.5%

From structural high -17.9%

From structural low +36.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GSPTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	-2.4%-10.3% to +16.1%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-1.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+20.1%-7.2% to +32.3%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+10.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+15.1%+10.0% to +16.7%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+8.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+29.7%+17.0% to +42.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+12.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PEY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map