Weekly structural research · SHH · Consumer Cyclical

603958 Stage Analysis

Harson Trading (China) Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 18.00Tenure NewBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -29−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 23/100directional strength

Maturity 33/100lifecycle context

Confidence 50/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +23.3%CNY 14.60 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	18.00	19.41	3.72	24876686	Balance	-29	23
2026-09-25	18.70	19.46	6.75	70359710	Balance	-13	10
2026-09-18	16.70	19.56	-5.00	48647589	Rotation Up	-21	20
2026-09-11	15.63	19.65	-10.57	85935117	Rotation Up	-32	35
2026-09-04	20.71	19.86	17.01	141246964	Rotation Up	-1	31
2026-08-28	21.76	19.79	22.66	34019885	Rotation Up	2	29
2026-08-21	20.55	19.52	17.74	15342030	Downward Expansion	-25	25
2026-08-14	15.25	19.27	-12.82	5682700	Downward Expansion	-66	83
2026-08-07	14.78	19.21	-16.08	3445050	Rotation Down	-68	87
2026-07-31	13.42	19.16	-22.00	6458701	Rotation Down	-48	81
2026-07-24	12.89	19.14	-25.10	5214500	Rotation Down	-57	83
2026-07-17	13.87	19.14	-18.77	5264500	Rotation Down	-57	77
2026-07-10	15.63	19.18	-14.23	4982200	Rotation Down	-42	64
2026-07-03	16.88	19.19	-8.93	3960700	Deceleration	-35	49
2026-06-26	17.66	19.16	-4.78	5110600	Deceleration	-11	27
2026-06-19	20.42	19.08	7.90	22688682	Deceleration	9	22
2026-06-12	19.09	18.93	2.15	3902500	Deceleration	11	18
2026-06-05	20.02	18.83	6.86	4749200	Deceleration	30	18
2026-05-29	20.71	18.71	9.18	44524200	Upward Expansion	45	30
2026-05-22	24.71	18.60	28.64	46457866	Upward Expansion	63	48
2026-05-15	24.67	18.30	28.04	53136666	Upward Expansion	64	54
2026-05-08	23.86	18.00	22.68	31494369	Upward Expansion	62	66
2026-05-01	24.26	17.72	26.90	37773310	Upward Expansion	65	67
2026-04-24	24.83	17.43	31.31	51111832	Upward Expansion	71	65
2026-04-17	25.43	17.14	35.74	80281072	Upward Expansion	79	59
2026-04-10	22.68	16.85	23.27	47968000	Upward Expansion	70	44
2026-04-03	19.15	16.67	6.92	43091190	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-03-27	20.47	16.61	13.29	52534900	Upward Expansion	61	43
2026-03-20	19.47	16.50	6.49	41489567	Upward Expansion	60	48
2026-03-13	20.10	16.40	6.10	47313900	Upward Expansion	63	63
2026-03-06	19.50	16.30	2.18	57720289	Upward Expansion	65	80
2026-02-27	21.66	16.22	12.37	51890650	Rotation Up	79	79
2026-02-13	19.49	16.05	3.56	59693210	Rotation Up	34	48
2026-02-06	21.94	15.95	17.32	108060323	Rotation Up	49	49
2026-01-30	18.50	15.79	-1.76	118498477	Rotation Up	-2	11
2026-01-23	13.74	15.77	-27.16	22804900	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2026-01-16	13.14	15.92	-29.92	22198199	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2026-01-09	13.30	16.09	-29.61	19390889	Downward Expansion	-65	78
2026-01-02	13.30	16.27	-27.17	16467100	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2025-12-26	12.88	16.45	-29.71	22360200	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2025-12-19	12.95	16.64	-28.60	45743586	Downward Expansion	-84	71
2025-12-12	14.89	16.82	-18.25	23439200	Downward Expansion	-66	48
2025-12-05	16.14	16.93	-11.89	22203723	Downward Expansion	-51	35
2025-11-28	15.74	17.03	-13.61	20018534	Downward Expansion	-51	40
2025-11-21	15.27	17.10	-14.89	17728500	Downward Expansion	-61	34
2025-11-14	15.90	17.16	-14.74	11977134	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-11-07	16.31	17.23	-12.66	10175154	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2025-10-31	16.45	17.32	-10.93	20457234	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2025-10-24	17.28	17.41	-6.37	29750900	Downward Expansion	-44	29
2025-10-17	15.79	17.39	-11.88	25836708	Downward Expansion	-62	66
2025-10-10	15.61	17.47	-13.93	5359200	Downward Expansion	-66	73
2025-10-03	15.44	17.54	-14.23	5525997	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2025-09-26	15.62	17.59	-11.78	17584697	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2025-09-19	16.10	17.61	-8.64	19960100	Balance	-62	38
2025-09-12	16.78	17.54	-5.73	16555546	Balance	-40	19
2025-09-05	17.05	17.45	-2.28	23794089	Balance	-8	9
2025-08-29	17.36	17.33	-1.09	45692422	Deceleration	-10	10
2025-08-22	17.16	17.16	-0.94	26853122	Deceleration	-23	18
2025-08-15	16.53	17.01	-0.57	16881672	Deceleration	-23	30
2025-08-08	17.16	16.89	5.73	24540600	Deceleration	2	24
2025-08-01	17.00	16.74	7.82	17572100	Deceleration	1	27
2025-07-25	16.69	16.66	5.61	18093500	Balance	-2	23
2025-07-18	16.48	16.70	6.75	20429200	Balance	-4	14
2025-07-11	17.28	16.64	13.48	18935731	Balance	14	11
2025-07-04	17.86	16.56	19.80	24571562	Upward Expansion	34	18
2025-06-27	18.06	16.39	24.21	59326477	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-06-20	18.45	16.20	30.82	26275300	Upward Expansion	51	30
2025-06-13	18.46	15.99	31.87	36066886	Upward Expansion	54	33
2025-06-06	18.84	15.80	35.93	19921200	Upward Expansion	58	34
2025-05-30	18.49	15.63	36.69	18097700	Upward Expansion	54	33
2025-05-23	18.50	15.48	38.36	26135800	Upward Expansion	54	33
2025-05-16	18.23	15.32	37.15	48528715	Upward Expansion	53	30
2025-05-09	18.87	15.08	44.60	25655500	Upward Expansion	60	34
2025-05-02	18.07	14.79	42.88	24315300	Upward Expansion	54	35
2025-04-25	17.01	14.56	35.40	26620100	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-04-18	18.10	14.35	46.46	37451700	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-04-11	18.91	14.06	56.76	47822333	Upward Expansion	69	62
2025-04-04	19.09	13.72	55.05	53713208	Upward Expansion	76	73
2025-03-28	16.67	13.37	36.44	37172636	Upward Expansion	62	64
2025-03-21	18.21	13.13	49.41	78894211	Upward Expansion	73	74
2025-03-14	17.76	12.80	44.36	127895212	Upward Expansion	73	71
2025-03-07	16.82	12.47	39.44	111821953	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-02-28	16.26	12.19	37.30	42829253	Balance	69	51
2025-02-21	14.08	11.95	17.12	33245845	Balance	39	20
2025-02-14	14.10	11.78	17.58	53866080	Balance	35	18
2025-02-07	13.28	11.62	11.54	15282706	Balance	23	19
2025-01-31	12.50	11.43	6.36	4210602	Upward Expansion	23	23
2025-01-24	12.56	11.28	6.19	25488104	Upward Expansion	32	21
2025-01-17	12.87	11.13	8.70	36692202	Upward Expansion	42	28
2025-01-10	12.75	10.98	10.65	68238542	Upward Expansion	56	42
2025-01-03	14.41	10.84	24.00	109054789	Upward Expansion	60	63
2024-12-27	17.97	10.64	47.17	2751100	Upward Expansion	85	82
2024-12-20	14.85	10.36	24.19	0	Deceleration	68	50
2024-12-13	14.85	10.18	24.18	47937039	Deceleration	69	41
2024-12-06	12.63	10.03	6.04	29445200	Upward Expansion	42	29
2024-11-29	12.29	9.94	5.96	46659200	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-11-22	12.16	9.86	7.09	52494439	Upward Expansion	61	48
2024-11-15	12.87	9.77	11.59	86931660	Upward Expansion	63	69
2024-11-08	13.88	9.66	16.70	104823095	Upward Expansion	75	82
2024-11-01	13.90	9.57	24.00	137390940	Upward Expansion	81	81
2024-10-25	13.53	9.48	20.40	115886093	Rotation Up	88	83
2024-10-18	11.27	9.41	2.09	87293690	Rotation Up	40	58
2024-10-11	9.93	9.46	-8.49	57464351	Rotation Up	26	46
2024-10-04	11.36	9.54	1.20	31015220	Balance	37	50
2024-09-27	10.62	9.62	2.69	111634328	Balance	9	16
2024-09-20	9.49	9.71	4.02	56446732	Balance	-8	10
2024-09-13	8.60	9.94	-4.18	26114943	Downward Expansion	-27	14
2024-09-06	8.53	10.16	-6.81	51214935	Downward Expansion	-40	22
2024-08-30	9.61	10.30	2.50	47706956	Downward Expansion	-30	22
2024-08-23	8.18	10.46	-12.69	37731185	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2024-08-16	8.07	10.63	-14.36	18438200	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-08-09	8.16	10.66	-12.62	31249720	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2024-08-02	9.13	10.69	-3.47	59604812	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2024-07-26	8.93	10.69	-4.73	49858101	Downward Expansion	-49	41
2024-07-19	9.35	10.70	-2.92	22590500	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2024-07-12	7.73	10.70	-19.10	36040120	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2024-07-05	7.88	10.73	-16.83	10334200	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2024-06-28	8.17	10.78	-14.08	14576298	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2024-06-21	8.29	10.82	-13.46	10601600	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2024-06-14	8.55	10.86	-11.53	12176065	Downward Expansion	-75	82
2024-06-07	8.51	10.87	-12.22	18887092	Downward Expansion	-53	69
2024-05-31	9.42	10.90	-3.69	14002801	Rotation Down	-42	59
2024-05-24	9.64	10.90	-0.99	14615798	Rotation Down	-28	46
2024-05-17	10.12	10.88	2.41	23548499	Rotation Down	-24	49
2024-05-10	9.96	10.83	1.56	19880392	Rotation Down	-26	53
2024-05-03	9.97	10.78	4.12	13305900	Rotation Down	-25	46
2024-04-26	9.36	10.72	-0.87	19282502	Deceleration	-29	31
2024-04-19	9.54	10.68	2.59	37858194	Deceleration	-8	19
2024-04-12	11.18	10.64	23.02	25638169	Deceleration	15	17
2024-04-05	11.39	10.55	24.71	19032619	Deceleration	23	20
2024-03-29	11.42	10.43	27.61	35411869	Deceleration	31	21
2024-03-22	12.61	10.31	42.24	49333205	Upward Expansion	40	24
2024-03-15	12.54	10.14	43.13	63847907	Upward Expansion	57	42
2024-03-08	13.52	9.98	56.86	84111016	Upward Expansion	63	54
2024-03-01	13.50	9.79	60.13	153182747	Upward Expansion	65	59
2024-02-23	16.48	9.60	100.14	239458397	Upward Expansion	85	92
2024-02-09	15.16	9.32	97.71	170505556	Upward Expansion	85	92
2024-02-02	12.65	9.07	77.29	76960779	Upward Expansion	66	83
2024-01-26	14.33	8.90	92.19	124150799	Upward Expansion	90	91
2024-01-19	13.29	8.67	87.30	8172242	Deceleration	89	82
2024-01-12	9.07	8.47	28.15	0	Deceleration	33	17
2024-01-05	9.07	8.42	27.14	0	Deceleration	35	19
2023-12-29	9.07	8.37	26.18	18224766	Deceleration	36	18
2023-12-22	9.20	8.32	31.58	20208100	Upward Expansion	40	21
2023-12-15	9.23	8.25	31.85	14230900	Upward Expansion	42	25
2023-12-08	8.86	8.18	26.36	19501900	Upward Expansion	52	31
2023-12-01	9.33	8.10	31.26	17106001	Upward Expansion	56	35
2023-11-24	9.44	7.99	33.40	30933800	Upward Expansion	60	39
2023-11-17	9.35	7.88	32.65	27257859	Upward Expansion	61	44
2023-11-10	8.97	7.77	28.98	41134100	Upward Expansion	59	43
2023-11-03	9.19	7.68	33.48	53239400	Upward Expansion	61	45
2023-10-27	9.63	7.58	41.60	69552036	Upward Expansion	73	49
2023-10-20	8.94	7.48	34.30	100553474	Upward Expansion	65	41
2023-10-13	8.73	7.39	27.78	76288306	Upward Expansion	67	43
2023-09-29	8.30	7.32	21.45	56952914	Upward Expansion	57	41
2023-09-22	8.23	7.28	20.21	9705471	Upward Expansion	60	65

Price vs TrendBelow-7.3%

Trend directionRising+1.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+23.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+3.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+12.7%

Price momentumNegative-6.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.69×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-29 / ±100

-28.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

23 /100

-8.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

603958 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration58

Rotation Down45

Downward Expansion60

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 41%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 22%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-3.7%
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-18	New	-23.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-08-21	New	+34.8%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-08-07	Developing	-5.4%
Deceleration	2026-06-05	2026-07-03	Developing	-15.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-05-29	Established	+6.2%
Rotation Up	2026-01-30	2026-02-27	New	+17.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-26	2026-01-23	Established	-12.0%
Balance	2025-09-05	2025-09-19	New	-5.6%
Deceleration	2025-08-01	2025-08-29	Developing	+2.1%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-07-25	New	-3.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-07-04	Established	+6.2%
Balance	2025-02-07	2025-02-28	New	+22.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-01-31	Developing	-30.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing54

Stage 2 · Advancing43

Stage 3 · Distribution46

Stage 4 · Declining57

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 42/100
Current Relative Strength: 3.72
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -5.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 25th percentile81 in cohort

Test 603958 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.85×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.69×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 603958 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 17.79falling

Slow Activity CNY 18.33falling

Trend Reference CNY 19.41-7.3% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 14.60+23.3% close margin

Structural low CNY 12.70shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +13.1%

Annualized volatility +82.0%

From structural high -34.5%

From structural low +46.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	-0.7%-15.5% to +26.7%	+46.2%	+46.2%	-0.4%	+38.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-4.9%-9.7% to +56.5%	+42.9%	+42.9%	+1.4%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+9.8%-23.0% to +91.9%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+8.7%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+42.9%-4.9% to +98.0%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+22.2%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

603958 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map