Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Financial Services

FDUS Stage Analysis

Fidus Investment Corp

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 19.06Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 18−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 11/100directional strength

Maturity 32/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +11.5%USD 17.10 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	19.06	18.68	-9.29	1332588	Deceleration	18	11
2026-10-02	19.26	18.60	-8.42	2071232	Deceleration	21	11
2026-09-25	19.15	18.52	-8.65	976779	Deceleration	20	12
2026-09-18	19.36	18.44	-4.95	1897544	Deceleration	32	18
2026-09-11	19.00	18.37	-6.16	1605142	Deceleration	29	21
2026-09-04	19.06	18.33	-6.79	1532142	Deceleration	31	24
2026-08-28	19.13	18.28	-6.55	1331376	Deceleration	37	22
2026-08-21	19.13	18.25	-6.59	1820470	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-08-14	19.02	18.22	-9.84	1813308	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-08-07	20.35	18.21	-2.91	2524852	Upward Expansion	73	72
2026-07-31	19.74	18.16	-1.36	1110507	Upward Expansion	63	73
2026-07-24	19.41	18.11	-2.77	1335316	Upward Expansion	65	77
2026-07-17	20.36	18.07	0.00	1612581	Upward Expansion	81	85
2026-07-10	20.21	17.98	-5.20	4492930	Upward Expansion	82	77
2026-07-03	19.33	17.92	-8.07	1439452	Upward Expansion	71	59
2026-06-26	18.78	17.88	-10.28	1653400	Balance	59	31
2026-06-19	18.35	17.85	-16.60	1907190	Balance	12	11
2026-06-12	18.20	17.83	-15.54	1111747	Balance	8	7
2026-06-05	17.87	17.83	-15.62	1343151	Rotation Up	1	5
2026-05-29	18.26	17.84	-18.05	869696	Rotation Up	17	22
2026-05-22	18.02	17.85	-17.30	879011	Rotation Up	20	35
2026-05-15	18.18	17.88	-16.07	1293197	Rotation Up	21	39
2026-05-08	19.14	17.88	-12.33	2102852	Rotation Up	38	41
2026-05-01	18.57	17.83	-10.72	910487	Downward Expansion	28	31
2026-04-24	17.80	17.84	-13.46	1024473	Downward Expansion	-18	22
2026-04-17	18.30	17.86	-9.54	1207562	Downward Expansion	-14	14
2026-04-10	17.32	17.88	-9.53	1101774	Downward Expansion	-46	32
2026-04-03	17.17	17.94	-6.66	1182479	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2026-03-27	16.37	18.00	-8.01	1667863	Downward Expansion	-72	66
2026-03-20	16.62	18.10	-10.11	2574589	Downward Expansion	-69	74
2026-03-13	16.59	18.18	-12.48	1352806	Downward Expansion	-74	78
2026-03-06	16.91	18.25	-12.20	1574496	Downward Expansion	-70	75
2026-02-27	16.63	18.32	-15.23	1730275	Downward Expansion	-83	80
2026-02-20	17.31	18.38	-12.56	1095035	Downward Expansion	-70	65
2026-02-13	17.70	18.44	-10.06	1149194	Balance	-58	48
2026-02-06	17.71	18.50	-11.54	1464133	Balance	-48	25
2026-01-30	18.11	18.53	-11.69	849834	Balance	-19	13
2026-01-23	18.40	18.55	-10.79	705099	Balance	-11	14
2026-01-16	18.69	18.52	-9.49	956507	Balance	-5	11
2026-01-09	18.60	18.49	-10.99	1243643	Balance	-22	11
2026-01-02	18.34	18.45	-10.58	1474958	Balance	-32	15
2025-12-26	18.25	18.43	-12.77	1282438	Deceleration	-45	22
2025-12-19	17.70	18.41	-14.59	2951681	Deceleration	-59	31
2025-12-12	18.39	18.40	-10.99	1443375	Deceleration	-22	22
2025-12-05	18.06	18.37	-14.39	1934714	Deceleration	-25	36
2025-11-28	18.03	18.34	-13.93	719052	Deceleration	-24	39
2025-11-21	17.77	18.29	-11.22	1077510	Deceleration	-25	26
2025-11-14	18.06	18.25	-12.74	1616914	Deceleration	1	4
2025-11-07	18.08	18.18	-12.99	962661	Deceleration	1	4
2025-10-31	18.79	18.09	-12.50	852887	Deceleration	17	14
2025-10-24	18.85	18.01	-10.65	777434	Deceleration	16	18
2025-10-17	18.25	17.98	-11.72	1030136	Deceleration	6	22
2025-10-10	17.66	17.96	-12.59	1630112	Deceleration	-9	19
2025-10-03	18.63	17.97	-10.01	1090727	Deceleration	38	20
2025-09-26	18.46	17.97	-9.87	1479635	Upward Expansion	43	28
2025-09-19	19.01	18.01	-7.67	1743349	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-09-12	19.11	18.02	-5.29	1054818	Upward Expansion	63	49
2025-09-05	19.04	18.04	-3.98	734652	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-08-29	19.16	18.05	-2.53	766127	Upward Expansion	68	50
2025-08-22	18.99	18.04	-3.71	817170	Upward Expansion	63	44
2025-08-15	18.85	18.04	-5.28	1061305	Rotation Up	33	37
2025-08-08	19.02	18.02	-4.01	928332	Rotation Up	42	58
2025-08-01	18.37	17.97	-3.90	620613	Rotation Up	38	64
2025-07-25	19.05	17.96	-2.62	573433	Rotation Up	44	72
2025-07-18	19.44	17.91	0.27	595393	Rotation Up	49	70
2025-07-11	18.88	17.84	-1.26	803597	Rotation Up	43	59
2025-07-04	18.50	17.79	-3.50	603486	Balance	33	33
2025-06-27	17.70	17.76	-6.18	1465337	Balance	-6	10
2025-06-20	17.74	17.75	-2.10	770567	Balance	-5	12
2025-06-13	17.39	17.73	-3.96	1006926	Balance	-22	19
2025-06-06	17.60	17.71	-3.31	838633	Balance	-21	22
2025-05-30	17.75	17.67	-0.51	857836	Rotation Down	-22	22
2025-05-23	17.44	17.61	-0.38	730523	Rotation Down	-34	22
2025-05-16	17.48	17.56	-2.46	934467	Rotation Down	-13	14
2025-05-09	17.03	17.52	1.53	694181	Rotation Down	-30	32
2025-05-02	16.52	17.48	-1.71	630904	Rotation Down	-37	57
2025-04-25	16.66	17.46	2.42	714726	Rotation Down	-31	67
2025-04-18	16.07	17.44	5.04	821046	Rotation Down	-38	71
2025-04-11	15.41	17.44	-1.61	1939237	Rotation Down	-54	67
2025-04-04	16.28	17.46	11.73	1711666	Deceleration	-47	48
2025-03-28	17.81	17.44	10.38	1639437	Deceleration	11	27
2025-03-21	17.77	17.39	7.80	1789853	Deceleration	24	25
2025-03-14	17.92	17.32	9.18	1715243	Upward Expansion	44	36
2025-03-07	18.64	17.25	11.03	1328184	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-02-28	19.65	17.14	13.56	870804	Upward Expansion	76	84
2025-02-21	19.46	17.00	8.95	589109	Upward Expansion	74	89
2025-02-14	19.72	16.87	8.12	655931	Upward Expansion	88	95
2025-02-07	19.09	16.72	7.83	669719	Upward Expansion	80	91
2025-01-31	19.08	16.61	8.15	941832	Upward Expansion	86	85
2025-01-24	18.80	16.50	5.26	723581	Upward Expansion	87	73
2025-01-17	18.31	16.39	4.09	828791	Upward Expansion	83	68
2025-01-10	17.64	16.29	3.13	684147	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-01-03	17.88	16.21	2.17	860943	Upward Expansion	81	70
2024-12-27	17.60	16.14	-0.38	591341	Upward Expansion	75	69
2024-12-20	17.28	16.06	-1.44	1380067	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-12-13	17.52	16.00	-2.49	1248709	Upward Expansion	78	92
2024-12-06	17.48	15.93	-2.08	852510	Upward Expansion	82	93
2024-11-29	17.44	15.86	0.72	544004	Upward Expansion	88	95
2024-11-22	17.18	15.79	-0.13	980205	Upward Expansion	89	88
2024-11-15	16.75	15.74	-0.95	1241466	Upward Expansion	82	73
2024-11-08	16.43	15.70	-6.34	1656037	Upward Expansion	71	49
2024-11-01	15.93	15.66	-4.43	829766	Upward Expansion	41	26
2024-10-25	16.00	15.63	-5.86	1065218	Upward Expansion	53	31
2024-10-18	16.10	15.60	-5.37	1165010	Upward Expansion	61	36
2024-10-11	16.02	15.56	-5.87	692345	Upward Expansion	58	35
2024-10-04	15.86	15.51	-5.82	913126	Upward Expansion	56	37
2024-09-27	16.02	15.47	-4.94	1131424	Upward Expansion	61	45
2024-09-20	16.00	15.42	-4.42	1962441	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-09-13	16.04	15.38	-3.00	1111279	Upward Expansion	65	66
2024-09-06	15.91	15.34	1.78	1325471	Upward Expansion	61	64
2024-08-30	16.02	15.28	-3.46	1142034	Upward Expansion	70	60
2024-08-23	15.87	15.23	-5.24	766392	Upward Expansion	63	35
2024-08-16	15.76	15.19	-5.08	783305	Upward Expansion	60	29
2024-08-09	15.41	15.15	-2.36	1123193	Upward Expansion	33	16
2024-08-02	15.36	15.14	-2.50	669068	Upward Expansion	39	23
2024-07-26	15.60	15.12	-4.24	538658	Upward Expansion	57	35
2024-07-19	15.29	15.09	-8.77	691092	Upward Expansion	51	32
2024-07-12	15.73	15.07	-10.13	899074	Upward Expansion	65	42
2024-07-05	15.63	15.02	-11.21	534978	Upward Expansion	61	35
2024-06-28	15.51	14.98	-9.05	872347	Upward Expansion	56	34
2024-06-21	15.33	14.93	-10.36	1095529	Upward Expansion	42	29
2024-06-14	15.38	14.89	-10.09	907641	Deceleration	53	35
2024-06-07	15.59	14.84	-5.90	942502	Deceleration	62	40
2024-05-31	15.45	14.78	-4.39	997636	Deceleration	48	34
2024-05-24	15.37	14.73	-6.51	1813118	Upward Expansion	55	39
2024-05-17	15.29	14.64	-5.84	1065642	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-05-10	15.47	14.56	-2.85	2597870	Upward Expansion	63	66
2024-05-03	15.44	14.49	-1.77	1237641	Upward Expansion	64	68
2024-04-26	15.77	14.41	1.19	634391	Upward Expansion	83	80
2024-04-19	15.42	14.35	2.72	734354	Upward Expansion	75	74
2024-04-12	15.08	14.28	-5.08	746813	Upward Expansion	62	61
2024-04-05	15.14	14.23	-5.48	900800	Upward Expansion	68	52
2024-03-29	15.25	14.17	-5.78	1864434	Upward Expansion	74	44
2024-03-22	14.64	14.10	-10.30	1649044	Upward Expansion	50	28
2024-03-15	14.51	14.06	-8.75	3164027	Upward Expansion	51	33
2024-03-08	14.68	14.02	-9.15	3344673	Deceleration	54	39
2024-03-01	14.72	13.99	-10.71	1189792	Deceleration	48	32
2024-02-23	14.76	13.97	-9.17	766431	Deceleration	49	29
2024-02-16	14.73	13.96	-8.67	1164534	Deceleration	48	29
2024-02-09	14.20	13.93	-13.74	990696	Upward Expansion	42	29
2024-02-02	14.40	13.92	-11.45	1328225	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-01-26	14.79	13.90	-8.37	869810	Upward Expansion	64	69
2024-01-19	14.69	13.86	-8.86	754074	Upward Expansion	66	77
2024-01-12	14.85	13.81	-5.81	1035487	Upward Expansion	72	83
2024-01-05	14.95	13.75	-2.59	1135696	Upward Expansion	82	85
2023-12-29	14.71	13.69	-7.55	1135545	Upward Expansion	77	75
2023-12-22	14.56	13.63	-8.66	2179354	Upward Expansion	75	70
2023-12-15	14.40	13.56	-9.29	2836455	Upward Expansion	73	70
2023-12-08	14.18	13.50	-8.06	1014908	Upward Expansion	68	68
2023-12-01	14.02	13.44	-8.96	1034695	Upward Expansion	60	65
2023-11-24	14.13	13.39	-8.43	1371695	Deceleration	67	50
2023-11-17	13.93	13.34	-9.30	865562	Deceleration	58	37
2023-11-10	13.88	13.29	-8.18	797621	Deceleration	42	19
2023-11-03	13.97	13.25	-5.27	821702	Deceleration	28	20
2023-10-27	12.70	13.20	-8.73	575452	Deceleration	-34	50
2023-10-20	12.98	13.20	-9.33	635754	Deceleration	-4	18

Price vs TrendAbove+2.0%

Trend directionRising+2.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+11.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-10.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-9.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.1%

Price momentumPositive+10.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.28×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

18 / ±100

-10.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

11 /100

-10.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

FDUS Directional State ↗ FDUS Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance58

Rotation Up29

Upward Expansion51

Deceleration81

Rotation Down22

Downward Expansion20

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 48%Deceleration 23%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 7%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-28	2026-10-09	Developing	-0.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-08-21	Developing	-1.0%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-06-26	New	+3.2%
Rotation Up	2026-05-08	2026-06-05	Developing	-6.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-05-01	Developing	+7.3%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-02-13	Developing	-3.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-12-26	Established	-2.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2025-09-26	Developing	-2.8%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-08-15	Developing	-0.1%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-07-04	Developing	+5.1%
Rotation Down	2025-04-11	2025-05-30	Developing	+15.2%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-04-04	New	-8.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-21	2025-03-14	Extended	+16.8%
Deceleration	2024-05-31	2024-06-14	New	-0.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing27

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution72

Stage 4 · Declining36

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 26/100
Current Relative Strength: -9.29
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +10.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -12.9%
Financial Services regime cohort: 20th percentile162 in cohort

Test FDUS trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.79×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.28×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore FDUS Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 19.17rising

Slow Activity USD 19.08rising

Trend Reference USD 18.68+2.0% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 17.10+11.5% close margin

Structural low USD 17.10shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.9%

Annualized volatility +21.0%

From structural high -8.3%

From structural low +16.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	+0.8%-9.6% to +11.3%	+70.6%	+70.6%	-2.2%	+47.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+3.7%-1.6% to +9.5%	+77.8%	+77.8%	-2.1%	+11.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+9.5%-7.8% to +12.3%	+85.7%	+85.7%	-5.1%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+21.2%-6.5% to +33.9%	+75.0%	+75.0%	-10.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

FDUS Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map