Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

TE Stage Analysis

T1 Energy Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 3.39Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -75−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 78/100directional strength

Maturity 37/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +8.9%USD 3.11 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	3.39	5.92	-47.95	88843631	Downward Expansion	-75	78
2026-10-02	3.92	6.07	-39.29	90217353	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2026-09-25	3.78	6.16	-41.42	106073761	Downward Expansion	-71	65
2026-09-18	4.17	6.24	-34.32	92342976	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2026-09-11	4.61	6.31	-27.03	81458514	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-09-04	4.60	6.36	-27.21	94699380	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-08-28	4.79	6.48	-23.61	102764811	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2026-08-21	4.42	6.60	-28.56	102473481	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2026-08-14	5.11	6.73	-17.89	148258138	Rotation Down	-49	50
2026-08-07	5.85	6.83	-4.89	269654550	Rotation Down	-29	38
2026-07-31	4.17	6.87	-28.87	229022510	Balance	-41	38
2026-07-24	5.00	6.99	-12.99	223909520	Balance	-15	22
2026-07-17	5.84	7.05	2.17	198964893	Balance	11	14
2026-07-10	6.85	7.07	19.63	152931424	Upward Expansion	32	18
2026-07-03	8.56	7.02	54.21	120505917	Upward Expansion	54	34
2026-06-26	8.21	6.93	54.76	152388819	Upward Expansion	58	42
2026-06-19	9.35	6.80	76.35	175610284	Upward Expansion	64	72
2026-06-12	8.50	6.57	66.41	191582980	Upward Expansion	62	70
2026-06-05	9.43	6.40	90.57	196114663	Rotation Up	71	73
2026-05-29	10.56	6.22	114.69	226630183	Rotation Up	74	62
2026-05-22	8.08	5.99	72.84	401948785	Balance	28	22
2026-05-15	5.67	5.83	25.82	108170641	Balance	-6	7
2026-05-08	6.16	5.79	39.47	64956489	Rotation Down	-9	10
2026-05-01	5.15	5.71	21.64	52319678	Rotation Down	-18	31
2026-04-24	5.29	5.62	28.12	82130598	Rotation Down	-20	44
2026-04-17	5.03	5.52	24.59	146283951	Rotation Down	-19	43
2026-04-10	4.69	5.41	23.53	79726352	Deceleration	-24	35
2026-04-03	4.19	5.32	16.23	80032683	Deceleration	-9	14
2026-03-27	5.76	5.24	67.79	48156200	Deceleration	13	8
2026-03-20	6.60	5.11	92.57	66988566	Deceleration	32	16
2026-03-13	7.62	4.94	124.45	68587571	Deceleration	41	21
2026-03-06	6.72	4.74	101.61	61389468	Deceleration	31	23
2026-02-27	6.16	4.55	86.60	87476629	Deceleration	36	22
2026-02-20	6.21	4.39	92.06	67100433	Upward Expansion	44	28
2026-02-13	6.12	4.23	96.26	98160627	Upward Expansion	58	43
2026-02-06	8.27	4.07	168.07	112225606	Upward Expansion	65	55
2026-01-30	8.33	3.84	180.17	100921451	Upward Expansion	68	58
2026-01-23	8.50	3.61	198.90	140424257	Upward Expansion	75	71
2026-01-16	8.17	3.37	198.85	131481286	Upward Expansion	76	78
2026-01-09	6.94	3.15	162.69	92767351	Upward Expansion	66	75
2026-01-02	7.84	2.96	210.75	65442263	Upward Expansion	82	83
2025-12-26	6.80	2.74	176.14	62626817	Upward Expansion	77	83
2025-12-19	6.43	2.55	171.73	122421190	Upward Expansion	79	79
2025-12-12	5.35	2.37	133.80	145505136	Upward Expansion	72	54
2025-12-05	5.83	2.23	160.76	76142970	Upward Expansion	84	55
2025-11-28	4.12	2.08	91.30	39570036	Upward Expansion	58	37
2025-11-21	2.72	1.99	33.03	50979099	Upward Expansion	46	33
2025-11-14	3.36	1.94	61.14	73853541	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-11-07	3.81	1.86	84.55	71424277	Upward Expansion	68	63
2025-10-31	3.72	1.77	79.75	50015096	Upward Expansion	69	74
2025-10-24	3.47	1.68	72.93	63278479	Upward Expansion	68	84
2025-10-17	4.32	1.61	124.33	66909154	Upward Expansion	96	97
2025-10-10	3.64	1.52	98.47	47405679	Upward Expansion	97	97
2025-10-03	2.53	1.45	38.20	14859845	Upward Expansion	89	90
2025-09-26	2.20	1.41	23.26	17963042	Upward Expansion	82	85
2025-09-19	1.95	1.39	10.04	7905877	Upward Expansion	74	80
2025-09-12	1.86	1.38	7.14	7676394	Upward Expansion	69	77
2025-09-05	1.98	1.39	16.70	12424301	Balance	80	77
2025-08-29	1.65	1.38	-1.63	6390234	Balance	39	48
2025-08-22	1.59	1.39	-5.00	10727671	Balance	34	18
2025-08-15	1.48	1.40	-11.27	11930016	Balance	-10	7
2025-08-08	1.28	1.44	-22.47	5138845	Balance	-25	12
2025-08-01	1.16	1.47	-28.11	5237825	Balance	-23	11
2025-07-25	1.42	1.53	-14.81	7970690	Balance	-5	13
2025-07-18	1.48	1.58	-10.58	7747300	Balance	-1	11
2025-07-11	1.38	1.61	-16.56	5713230	Balance	-11	13
2025-07-04	1.44	1.62	-13.86	7275773	Downward Expansion	-12	14
2025-06-27	1.25	1.63	-24.33	7375532	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2025-06-20	1.36	1.65	-15.49	26448067	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2025-06-13	1.33	1.69	-17.98	7780061	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-06-06	1.20	1.72	-26.80	4824894	Downward Expansion	-57	45
2025-05-30	1.09	1.74	-33.32	5999076	Downward Expansion	-62	44
2025-05-23	1.05	1.74	-35.85	8973316	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2025-05-16	1.18	1.74	-31.20	13829119	Downward Expansion	-49	32
2025-05-09	1.39	1.74	-15.71	3804993	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2025-05-02	1.33	1.72	-20.31	3733332	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2025-04-25	1.26	1.71	-22.91	5643748	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-04-18	1.05	1.71	-33.25	3771710	Rotation Down	-73	81
2025-04-11	1.15	1.70	-28.53	8965787	Rotation Down	-43	65
2025-04-04	1.03	1.70	-33.01	8162225	Rotation Down	-52	63
2025-03-28	1.30	1.70	-23.93	7857241	Rotation Down	-34	52
2025-03-21	1.49	1.70	-14.59	10049000	Rotation Down	-24	46
2025-03-14	1.52	1.69	-12.58	5766585	Rotation Down	-24	40
2025-03-07	1.40	1.68	-21.38	7193488	Deceleration	-28	33
2025-02-28	1.53	1.68	-17.25	7621413	Deceleration	-5	16
2025-02-21	1.77	1.68	-5.66	6587645	Deceleration	5	14
2025-02-14	2.06	1.68	7.87	9239415	Deceleration	24	22
2025-02-07	1.85	1.66	-1.87	7598928	Deceleration	27	21
2025-01-31	1.88	1.66	-0.85	7470973	Upward Expansion	36	19
2025-01-24	1.99	1.66	4.17	8486891	Upward Expansion	54	36
2025-01-17	2.49	1.65	33.05	10758773	Upward Expansion	60	60
2025-01-10	2.35	1.62	30.38	13712762	Upward Expansion	62	65
2025-01-03	2.89	1.60	57.97	15071335	Upward Expansion	77	63
2024-12-27	3.03	1.57	65.97	27711586	Rotation Up	84	56
2024-12-20	2.16	1.55	19.92	19811489	Rotation Up	40	33
2024-12-13	1.71	1.57	-7.04	9405965	Rotation Up	33	38
2024-12-06	1.70	1.58	-8.83	10594904	Rotation Up	35	67
2024-11-29	2.07	1.58	10.80	9655731	Rotation Up	26	56
2024-11-22	2.45	1.57	32.23	19933025	Rotation Up	51	65
2024-11-15	2.10	1.55	15.57	23693744	Rotation Up	44	47
2024-11-08	2.05	1.53	10.47	79334771	Rotation Up	3	16
2024-11-01	0.9803	1.52	-44.67	5526203	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2024-10-25	1.02	1.55	-45.45	16425081	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-10-18	1.05	1.58	-46.35	2916706	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-10-11	1.02	1.59	-49.37	4557725	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2024-10-04	1.00	1.61	-51.77	7976753	Downward Expansion	-69	72
2024-09-27	1.09	1.63	-49.72	9880869	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-09-20	1.01	1.65	-55.34	5048648	Downward Expansion	-74	85
2024-09-13	1.01	1.67	-56.84	5849066	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2024-09-06	1.05	1.70	-55.63	4350505	Downward Expansion	-80	84
2024-08-30	1.23	1.72	-52.70	2682377	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2024-08-23	1.33	1.73	-51.13	4447120	Rotation Down	-64	72
2024-08-16	1.22	1.73	-56.65	6310728	Rotation Down	-44	58
2024-08-09	1.18	1.73	-58.44	10706587	Balance	-49	48
2024-08-02	1.55	1.74	-48.23	6817496	Balance	-23	17
2024-07-26	1.79	1.75	-44.34	5380444	Balance	-11	12
2024-07-19	1.69	1.75	-50.33	7961239	Balance	-17	19
2024-07-12	1.84	1.76	-49.42	6751446	Balance	-14	20
2024-07-05	1.63	1.76	-57.02	5267902	Balance	-10	23
2024-06-28	1.70	1.77	-56.48	25785448	Upward Expansion	15	19
2024-06-21	1.68	1.78	-59.02	5807126	Upward Expansion	23	13
2024-06-14	1.76	1.78	-58.22	6656703	Upward Expansion	51	49
2024-06-07	2.07	1.77	-51.74	7479848	Upward Expansion	62	69
2024-05-31	2.40	1.75	-45.13	9520107	Balance	73	75
2024-05-24	2.58	1.79	-42.98	20381097	Balance	55	64
2024-05-17	2.01	1.81	-56.81	6121255	Balance	34	28
2024-05-10	1.87	1.86	-60.34	7427534	Balance	-3	4
2024-05-03	1.80	1.93	-62.28	4639872	Balance	-9	5
2024-04-26	1.67	2.02	-65.77	4966302	Balance	-16	10
2024-04-19	1.62	2.13	-66.84	5790493	Balance	-21	13
2024-04-12	1.86	2.24	-64.14	10128722	Balance	-13	9
2024-04-05	1.91	2.37	-64.83	10173244	Downward Expansion	-21	20
2024-03-29	1.68	2.52	-70.18	4087964	Downward Expansion	-52	38
2024-03-22	1.51	2.67	-73.98	6017637	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-03-15	1.43	2.83	-75.46	6470252	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2024-03-08	1.75	3.00	-70.78	7468349	Downward Expansion	-43	37
2024-03-01	1.71	3.20	-72.25	12187085	Downward Expansion	-45	41
2024-02-23	1.61	3.40	-74.40	5354851	Downward Expansion	-51	53
2024-02-16	1.82	3.62	-71.38	9973149	Downward Expansion	-55	59
2024-02-09	1.84	3.84	-71.94	11077011	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2024-02-02	1.31	4.09	-80.26	5591303	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2024-01-26	1.32	4.34	-80.38	5725271	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2024-01-19	1.32	4.61	-80.69	10154782	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2024-01-12	1.55	4.80	-77.76	8131323	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2024-01-05	1.72	5.00	-75.63	8244291	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2023-12-29	1.87	5.19	-74.57	14652618	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2023-12-22	1.90	5.38	-74.68	12885356	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2023-12-15	1.88	5.56	-75.30	16678200	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2023-12-08	2.04	5.73	-73.31	22565187	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2023-12-01	1.81	5.91	-76.90	23175644	Downward Expansion	-69	88
2023-11-24	1.63	6.09	-79.65	10438375	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2023-11-17	1.60	6.27	-80.53	33462774	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2023-11-10	1.50	6.46	-81.93	40763596	Downward Expansion	-95	95
2023-11-03	3.56	6.69	-57.90	9756385	Downward Expansion	-70	88
2023-10-27	3.21	6.82	-60.84	10166689	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2023-10-20	3.52	7.01	-59.16	11813063	Downward Expansion	-86	94

Price vs TrendBelow-42.8%

Trend directionFalling-13.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+8.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-101.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-48.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-67.6%

Price momentumNegative-27.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.42×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-75 / ±100

-14.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

78 /100

+24.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TE Directional State ↗ TE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance3

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration37

Rotation Down69

Downward Expansion96

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-10-09	Developing	-23.3%
Rotation Down	2026-08-07	2026-08-14	New	-12.6%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-07-31	New	-28.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-12	2026-07-10	Developing	-19.4%
Rotation Up	2026-05-29	2026-06-05	New	-10.7%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-05-22	New	+42.5%
Rotation Down	2026-04-17	2026-05-08	New	+22.5%
Deceleration	2026-02-27	2026-04-10	Developing	-23.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2026-02-20	Established	+233.9%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-09-05	Developing	+43.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-07-04	Developing	+14.3%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-04-18	Developing	-30.9%
Deceleration	2025-02-07	2025-03-07	Developing	-24.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-01-31	Developing	-34.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing36

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution34

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -47.95
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -27.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -42.6%
Industrials regime cohort: 94th percentile101 in cohort

Test TE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.58×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.42×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 3.79falling

Slow Activity USD 5.54falling

Trend Reference USD 5.92-42.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 3.11+8.9% close margin

Structural low USD 3.32shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +31.0%

Annualized volatility +112.1%

From structural high -72.9%

From structural low +34.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	20	-6.0%-49.2% to +140.2%	+45.0%	+55.0%	-6.6%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+3.3%-71.0% to +68.3%	+57.1%	+42.9%	-5.4%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-11.7%-72.6% to +175.4%	+40.0%	+60.0%	-21.8%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+0.5%-78.7% to +319.8%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-20.9%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map