Weekly structural research · SHZ · Industrials

000633 Stage Analysis

Xinjiang Hejin Holding Co.,Ltd

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 5.29Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -33−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 25/100directional strength

Maturity 84/100lifecycle context

Confidence 68/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -9.9%CNY 5.87 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	5.29	5.72	-11.33	20109750	Downward Expansion	-33	25
2026-09-25	5.25	5.80	-15.08	27807020	Downward Expansion	-25	22
2026-09-18	5.14	5.90	-19.17	37329748	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2026-09-11	5.24	5.98	-17.07	36751757	Downward Expansion	-30	24
2026-09-04	5.36	6.06	-15.93	39632000	Downward Expansion	-32	29
2026-08-28	5.43	6.14	-17.90	5257600	Downward Expansion	-37	32
2026-08-21	5.31	6.23	-21.09	5498700	Downward Expansion	-43	36
2026-08-14	5.19	6.30	-24.86	4940600	Downward Expansion	-50	49
2026-08-07	5.16	6.39	-25.76	6962920	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2026-07-31	4.90	6.45	-26.26	9442200	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2026-07-24	4.69	6.54	-30.96	7121500	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2026-07-17	4.92	6.63	-27.82	12251000	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2026-07-10	4.85	6.72	-35.71	9914800	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2026-07-03	4.99	6.85	-36.77	9791381	Downward Expansion	-73	88
2026-06-26	4.80	6.97	-40.50	9168058	Downward Expansion	-85	93
2026-06-19	5.17	7.07	-37.51	52678916	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2026-06-12	5.38	7.17	-31.02	9291417	Downward Expansion	-78	88
2026-06-05	5.55	7.22	-31.08	9746100	Downward Expansion	-78	84
2026-05-29	5.57	7.25	-32.65	48109419	Downward Expansion	-81	74
2026-05-22	6.18	7.29	-26.16	47208342	Downward Expansion	-68	47
2026-05-15	6.31	7.30	-24.94	53249214	Downward Expansion	-68	43
2026-05-08	6.87	7.32	-18.66	27808400	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2026-05-01	6.83	7.31	-16.91	41656500	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2026-04-24	6.55	7.30	-19.58	54912411	Rotation Down	-65	55
2026-04-17	6.78	7.29	-16.62	37723101	Rotation Down	-34	55
2026-04-10	6.91	7.29	-11.69	43534622	Rotation Down	-35	62
2026-04-03	6.41	7.28	-12.22	47860376	Rotation Down	-48	68
2026-03-27	6.72	7.29	-10.86	58290739	Rotation Down	-33	52
2026-03-20	6.63	7.29	-12.68	47302821	Deceleration	-33	35
2026-03-13	7.26	7.30	-7.09	52201466	Deceleration	9	6
2026-03-06	7.70	7.27	-0.51	69773643	Deceleration	44	23
2026-02-27	8.10	7.22	2.70	46688811	Deceleration	55	28
2026-02-13	7.62	7.16	-0.27	46049819	Deceleration	43	23
2026-02-06	7.63	7.11	1.61	66544531	Deceleration	44	24
2026-01-30	7.74	7.06	1.26	130638730	Deceleration	45	26
2026-01-23	8.08	6.99	4.35	90140658	Deceleration	45	23
2026-01-16	7.63	6.93	0.06	125426524	Deceleration	31	17
2026-01-09	7.64	6.86	1.59	82841780	Deceleration	31	21
2026-01-02	7.21	6.81	0.51	47838422	Deceleration	34	22
2025-12-26	7.51	6.77	4.52	95085450	Upward Expansion	44	29
2025-12-19	7.28	6.73	5.34	97897091	Upward Expansion	59	45
2025-12-12	7.79	6.71	11.95	236890187	Upward Expansion	64	66
2025-12-05	8.75	6.64	27.09	376535512	Upward Expansion	82	88
2025-11-28	8.57	6.53	26.66	268092591	Upward Expansion	85	86
2025-11-21	7.65	6.42	17.79	448258901	Upward Expansion	70	72
2025-11-14	8.23	6.33	20.78	115643898	Upward Expansion	87	74
2025-11-07	6.81	6.22	-0.84	45695162	Upward Expansion	56	31
2025-10-31	6.63	6.15	-3.12	64081666	Upward Expansion	49	29
2025-10-24	6.65	6.10	-2.16	108964725	Upward Expansion	50	31
2025-10-17	6.64	6.06	2.43	60049245	Deceleration	52	30
2025-10-10	6.83	6.01	0.35	34385157	Deceleration	53	29
2025-10-03	6.58	5.95	-4.41	17953765	Deceleration	40	25
2025-09-26	6.34	5.89	-5.69	38732453	Upward Expansion	40	26
2025-09-19	6.44	5.84	-3.25	43493682	Upward Expansion	55	37
2025-09-12	6.82	5.79	3.54	46906445	Upward Expansion	65	50
2025-09-05	6.60	5.72	2.84	58943779	Upward Expansion	60	59
2025-08-29	6.60	5.65	1.79	72557642	Upward Expansion	62	70
2025-08-22	6.88	5.59	10.65	128123149	Upward Expansion	76	74
2025-08-15	6.68	5.51	12.86	102738721	Upward Expansion	73	65
2025-08-08	6.60	5.44	17.09	103942874	Upward Expansion	71	49
2025-08-01	6.09	5.36	9.96	61205237	Upward Expansion	55	37
2025-07-25	6.23	5.30	11.13	86384277	Upward Expansion	62	40
2025-07-18	6.05	5.24	10.95	61025973	Deceleration	46	34
2025-07-11	6.10	5.22	14.72	110781467	Deceleration	46	30
2025-07-04	5.90	5.20	13.43	171573364	Upward Expansion	42	27
2025-06-27	6.15	5.20	20.15	8468420	Upward Expansion	54	37
2025-06-20	5.59	5.17	13.94	52797454	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-06-13	5.96	5.15	20.50	54885799	Upward Expansion	63	72
2025-06-06	6.12	5.12	23.55	64063311	Upward Expansion	65	78
2025-05-30	6.32	5.09	30.05	124334630	Upward Expansion	75	81
2025-05-23	6.59	5.05	34.80	183756395	Upward Expansion	86	81
2025-05-16	5.93	4.99	21.22	130084857	Balance	72	61
2025-05-09	5.39	4.95	10.88	54260530	Balance	30	19
2025-05-02	5.13	4.93	7.84	39248901	Balance	-1	5
2025-04-25	5.01	4.93	4.99	73399888	Balance	-6	8
2025-04-18	4.88	4.92	3.48	89772015	Balance	-2	7
2025-04-11	4.75	4.90	0.04	116739101	Upward Expansion	15	21
2025-04-04	5.02	4.88	-0.34	168800089	Upward Expansion	46	48
2025-03-28	5.65	4.87	8.88	213135824	Balance	69	59
2025-03-21	5.05	4.83	-3.72	41912776	Balance	28	22
2025-03-14	5.04	4.78	-7.00	57677520	Balance	35	22
2025-03-07	4.88	4.74	-9.32	48766494	Balance	6	9
2025-02-28	4.69	4.71	-11.38	47718787	Balance	-1	7
2025-02-21	4.87	4.68	-11.62	92321653	Balance	10	10
2025-02-14	4.72	4.65	-12.92	33437641	Balance	1	5
2025-02-07	4.76	4.61	-11.00	25076122	Rotation Down	8	9
2025-01-31	4.57	4.59	-11.67	8319690	Rotation Down	-17	32
2025-01-24	4.55	4.57	-14.17	46872422	Upward Expansion	-20	32
2025-01-17	4.70	4.55	-11.20	104489042	Upward Expansion	-18	33
2025-01-10	4.17	4.54	-19.22	36981871	Upward Expansion	-32	38
2025-01-03	4.15	4.55	-21.41	35819240	Upward Expansion	3	13
2024-12-27	4.64	4.55	-19.36	56150652	Upward Expansion	36	29
2024-12-20	5.30	4.57	-8.82	43040910	Upward Expansion	61	66
2024-12-13	5.63	4.57	-4.65	48752310	Upward Expansion	71	72
2024-12-06	5.74	4.56	-4.18	64710366	Upward Expansion	78	61
2024-11-29	5.30	4.55	-10.71	71087828	Upward Expansion	66	43
2024-11-22	5.05	4.55	-14.63	62227391	Rotation Up	56	37
2024-11-15	4.88	4.56	-20.69	56192611	Rotation Up	30	32
2024-11-08	5.22	4.56	-19.17	88493266	Rotation Up	41	45
2024-11-01	5.13	4.58	-16.06	82055439	Rotation Up	41	39
2024-10-25	5.00	4.62	-20.29	65277444	Rotation Up	29	45
2024-10-18	4.74	4.65	-23.15	56329277	Rotation Up	21	41
2024-10-11	4.75	4.69	-21.38	88200542	Rotation Up	21	32
2024-10-04	5.15	4.72	-19.28	31311371	Downward Expansion	21	28
2024-09-27	4.72	4.73	-18.83	82434577	Downward Expansion	6	19
2024-09-20	4.15	4.75	-16.32	51446860	Downward Expansion	-14	22
2024-09-13	4.25	4.79	-13.70	113095461	Downward Expansion	-27	24
2024-09-06	4.67	4.80	-7.15	158912216	Downward Expansion	-20	19
2024-08-30	4.50	4.82	-12.98	188517443	Downward Expansion	-43	34
2024-08-23	3.63	4.89	-28.56	20759602	Downward Expansion	-72	61
2024-08-16	3.82	4.98	-26.74	22486910	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2024-08-09	3.85	5.09	-26.94	25294300	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2024-08-02	3.89	5.20	-27.95	27257800	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2024-07-26	3.75	5.30	-31.27	24991820	Downward Expansion	-76	84
2024-07-19	3.77	5.41	-33.67	24233442	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2024-07-12	4.06	5.52	-28.67	34166900	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2024-07-05	4.07	5.62	-27.55	36932100	Downward Expansion	-71	85
2024-06-28	3.94	5.73	-31.38	39750374	Downward Expansion	-82	89
2024-06-21	4.25	5.89	-28.14	22320540	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2024-06-14	4.39	6.01	-27.56	23938320	Downward Expansion	-77	76
2024-06-07	4.39	6.12	-28.25	45130897	Downward Expansion	-82	65
2024-05-31	5.16	6.23	-17.53	20131460	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2024-05-24	5.19	6.32	-18.31	22434018	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2024-05-17	5.39	6.37	-18.45	24238857	Downward Expansion	-56	55
2024-05-10	5.43	6.44	-18.94	27583500	Downward Expansion	-58	55
2024-05-03	5.29	6.51	-20.58	11172600	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2024-04-26	5.24	6.59	-20.96	29673431	Downward Expansion	-59	37
2024-04-19	4.96	6.64	-24.22	50401606	Downward Expansion	-67	35
2024-04-12	5.97	6.70	-8.98	31830210	Downward Expansion	-32	22
2024-04-05	6.23	6.71	-8.57	25985084	Downward Expansion	-35	24
2024-03-29	5.79	6.72	-13.98	22209528	Downward Expansion	-41	31
2024-03-22	5.93	6.74	-13.80	28247311	Downward Expansion	-45	38
2024-03-15	5.75	6.77	-17.21	25876010	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2024-03-08	5.40	6.81	-20.64	26083960	Downward Expansion	-64	83
2024-03-01	5.45	6.86	-21.02	42466100	Downward Expansion	-66	84
2024-02-23	5.40	6.91	-19.05	40806357	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2024-02-09	4.54	6.97	-30.36	49182802	Downward Expansion	-92	90
2024-02-02	5.18	7.05	-13.50	27803002	Rotation Down	-88	80
2024-01-26	6.50	7.11	-0.42	26883400	Rotation Down	-29	42
2024-01-19	6.54	7.12	-0.02	22512200	Balance	-29	36
2024-01-12	7.02	7.14	4.86	19840000	Balance	-16	23
2024-01-05	6.99	7.12	3.15	18110000	Balance	-17	20
2023-12-29	7.10	7.18	0.33	21913800	Balance	-3	16
2023-12-22	6.98	7.25	1.89	24890100	Balance	-5	16
2023-12-15	7.21	7.33	3.42	32080314	Balance	-0	5
2023-12-08	6.98	7.42	-1.70	48231468	Rotation Up	0	7
2023-12-01	7.30	7.54	0.81	151301510	Rotation Up	26	24
2023-11-24	8.67	7.64	18.13	115608524	Rotation Up	49	49
2023-11-17	7.81	7.67	5.02	67821158	Downward Expansion	22	27
2023-11-10	7.74	7.73	4.12	43437373	Downward Expansion	3	16
2023-11-03	7.63	7.80	3.64	107127357	Downward Expansion	1	13
2023-10-27	7.91	7.86	8.01	76788810	Downward Expansion	12	21
2023-10-20	6.90	7.89	-3.64	61524543	Downward Expansion	-13	24
2023-10-13	7.25	7.95	-3.83	132639195	Downward Expansion	-10	24
2023-09-29	7.61	8.02	0.26	129706665	Downward Expansion	-15	25
2023-09-22	7.74	8.07	1.31	140806676	Downward Expansion	-26	27

Price vs TrendBelow-7.5%

Trend directionFalling-12.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-9.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+7.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+25.4%

Price momentumNegative-17.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.71×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-33 / ±100

-1.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

25 /100

-3.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

000633 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance50

Rotation Up25

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration66

Rotation Down31

Downward Expansion60

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 42%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-10-02	Established	-22.5%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-04-24	Developing	-2.5%
Deceleration	2026-01-02	2026-03-20	Developing	-8.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-24	2025-12-26	Developing	+12.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-10-17	New	+0.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-09-26	Developing	+1.8%
Deceleration	2025-07-11	2025-07-18	New	-0.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-07-04	Developing	-10.5%
Balance	2025-04-18	2025-05-16	Developing	+21.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-04-11	New	-5.4%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-03-28	Developing	+19.7%
Rotation Down	2025-01-31	2025-02-07	New	+4.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-01-24	Developing	-14.2%
Rotation Up	2024-10-11	2024-11-22	Developing	+6.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing65

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution9

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 88/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.33
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -17.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -14.0%
Industrials regime cohort: 22th percentile447 in cohort

Test 000633 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.98×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.71×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 000633 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 5.25falling

Slow Activity CNY 5.37falling

Trend Reference CNY 5.72-7.5% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 5.87-9.9% close margin

Structural low CNY 4.62shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.2%

Annualized volatility +30.4%

From structural high -43.7%

From structural low +14.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	26	+2.3%-19.2% to +45.6%	+53.8%	+46.2%	+1.6%	+84.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-6.9%-29.1% to +69.8%	+44.4%	+55.6%	+1.7%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+1.6%-16.2% to +65.2%	+60.0%	+40.0%	+7.8%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+38.5%-41.0% to +50.2%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+29.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

000633 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map