Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Defensive

CARL Stage Analysis

Carlsberg A/S

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 116.85Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and stable.

Direction -18−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 29/100lifecycle context

Confidence 57/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedstable separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +44.3%EUR 80.96 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	116.85	116.08	0.75	0	Deceleration	-18	24
2026-10-02	114.45	115.17	-3.72	0	Deceleration	-22	34
2026-09-25	115.15	114.43	-6.16	0	Deceleration	-3	27
2026-09-18	112.40	113.93	-6.41	0	Deceleration	-13	31
2026-09-11	113.35	113.55	-6.82	0	Deceleration	-1	24
2026-09-04	117.15	113.15	-3.35	0	Deceleration	28	28
2026-08-28	118.90	112.50	-0.90	0	Upward Expansion	42	29
2026-08-21	117.85	111.43	0.56	0	Upward Expansion	52	48
2026-08-14	124.15	110.36	4.48	0	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-08-07	126.85	109.12	8.34	0	Upward Expansion	69	82
2026-07-31	131.25	107.75	15.66	0	Upward Expansion	90	94
2026-07-24	121.65	106.17	7.42	0	Upward Expansion	66	85
2026-07-17	124.20	104.90	11.15	0	Upward Expansion	77	88
2026-07-10	123.30	103.59	8.23	0	Upward Expansion	79	83
2026-07-03	122.55	102.30	6.07	0	Deceleration	81	66
2026-06-26	116.90	100.97	3.42	0	Deceleration	60	39
2026-06-19	111.60	99.77	-3.34	0	Upward Expansion	44	34
2026-06-12	112.85	98.72	1.49	0	Upward Expansion	47	38
2026-06-05	109.30	97.60	0.70	0	Upward Expansion	50	41
2026-05-29	115.05	96.60	4.49	0	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-05-22	117.65	95.35	9.50	0	Upward Expansion	74	60
2026-05-15	111.30	94.13	5.54	15	Upward Expansion	63	55
2026-05-08	114.35	93.11	7.74	0	Upward Expansion	70	62
2026-05-01	115.95	91.82	10.68	0	Upward Expansion	78	66
2026-04-24	107.60	90.47	3.14	0	Upward Expansion	67	78
2026-04-17	111.85	89.42	3.16	0	Upward Expansion	70	87
2026-04-10	115.35	88.25	8.53	0	Upward Expansion	86	92
2026-04-03	110.20	87.01	10.10	94	Upward Expansion	84	68
2026-03-27	106.40	85.99	9.70	81	Upward Expansion	82	59
2026-03-20	105.90	85.09	10.61	0	Upward Expansion	85	57
2026-03-13	89.54	84.20	-7.78	0	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-03-06	92.45	83.77	-7.23	0	Upward Expansion	68	83
2026-02-27	100.07	83.47	-4.80	0	Upward Expansion	75	91
2026-02-20	101.02	82.92	-5.62	0	Upward Expansion	91	97
2026-02-13	101.32	82.54	-2.19	90	Upward Expansion	98	98
2026-02-06	97.69	82.17	-6.29	669	Upward Expansion	96	96
2026-01-30	86.65	81.98	-15.89	0	Rotation Up	68	74
2026-01-23	85.82	82.18	-15.41	0	Rotation Up	37	55
2026-01-16	87.07	82.34	-13.37	50	Rotation Up	50	59
2026-01-09	85.74	82.50	-13.51	50	Rotation Up	45	53
2026-01-02	83.85	82.81	-14.51	0	Rotation Up	24	53
2025-12-26	83.55	83.20	-13.06	0	Rotation Up	25	53
2025-12-19	84.80	83.57	-11.49	0	Balance	18	45
2025-12-12	84.61	83.90	-9.31	338	Balance	17	29
2025-12-05	82.75	84.23	-10.84	0	Balance	3	15
2025-11-28	80.85	84.56	-11.61	0	Downward Expansion	-22	16
2025-11-21	79.94	84.98	-8.60	0	Downward Expansion	-38	28
2025-11-14	79.45	85.33	-10.35	0	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-11-07	79.19	85.69	-8.76	10	Downward Expansion	-40	29
2025-10-31	77.44	85.89	-11.75	0	Downward Expansion	-52	37
2025-10-24	81.27	86.24	-4.67	280	Downward Expansion	-49	40
2025-10-17	80.55	86.55	-3.69	0	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2025-10-10	75.66	86.88	-11.26	0	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2025-10-03	75.60	86.77	-13.11	0	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2025-09-26	76.08	86.64	-10.81	0	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2025-09-19	76.57	86.49	-9.87	0	Rotation Down	-79	82
2025-09-12	78.20	86.25	-8.37	0	Rotation Down	-45	70
2025-09-05	79.79	85.91	-5.56	0	Rotation Down	-41	77
2025-08-29	79.15	85.36	-6.66	0	Rotation Down	-44	79
2025-08-22	79.22	84.72	-9.89	0	Rotation Down	-40	76
2025-08-15	76.80	84.01	-13.72	0	Rotation Down	-55	71
2025-08-08	83.32	83.30	-4.02	0	Deceleration	-24	40
2025-08-01	83.77	82.32	2.19	0	Deceleration	-19	27
2025-07-25	89.46	81.35	6.30	72	Deceleration	25	22
2025-07-18	90.33	80.22	9.59	0	Deceleration	40	32
2025-07-11	92.00	79.02	11.88	0	Deceleration	45	39
2025-07-04	92.53	77.86	15.31	0	Deceleration	49	48
2025-06-27	90.60	76.68	12.39	0	Upward Expansion	54	55
2025-06-20	91.92	75.59	16.52	0	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-06-13	95.11	74.48	20.27	0	Upward Expansion	69	65
2025-06-06	95.41	73.21	18.21	0	Upward Expansion	72	68
2025-05-30	94.73	71.98	18.01	0	Upward Expansion	71	68
2025-05-23	94.77	70.83	19.40	226	Upward Expansion	75	70
2025-05-16	94.46	69.75	17.74	0	Upward Expansion	76	71
2025-05-09	92.53	68.73	18.78	89	Upward Expansion	73	70
2025-05-02	93.63	67.74	25.85	0	Upward Expansion	83	73
2025-04-25	90.33	66.75	23.46	0	Upward Expansion	75	70
2025-04-18	90.29	65.90	28.11	5	Upward Expansion	78	82
2025-04-11	85.14	64.93	27.61	158	Upward Expansion	69	87
2025-04-04	88.09	64.22	30.76	84	Upward Expansion	82	93
2025-03-28	90.33	63.34	21.16	0	Upward Expansion	97	99
2025-03-21	90.45	62.42	18.98	0	Upward Expansion	100	100
2025-03-14	72.50	61.43	-5.46	214	Upward Expansion	80	93
2025-03-07	71.76	61.06	-6.72	214	Rotation Up	84	94
2025-02-28	71.49	60.79	-3.93	107	Rotation Up	63	87
2025-02-21	69.39	60.62	-4.48	535	Rotation Up	54	83
2025-02-14	68.06	60.59	-7.17	0	Rotation Up	52	55
2025-02-07	63.36	60.56	-9.09	0	Downward Expansion	8	26
2025-01-31	59.81	60.74	-13.96	107	Downward Expansion	-27	19
2025-01-24	57.95	60.96	-16.27	0	Downward Expansion	-50	40
2025-01-17	55.40	61.24	-18.68	15	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2025-01-10	53.90	61.67	-18.23	0	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2025-01-03	54.82	62.35	-17.00	0	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2024-12-27	55.45	63.08	-15.61	0	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2024-12-20	54.26	63.68	-16.50	0	Downward Expansion	-82	62
2024-12-13	57.23	64.40	-13.37	0	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2024-12-06	57.28	65.10	-11.72	0	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2024-11-29	57.92	65.74	-9.58	0	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2024-11-22	58.50	66.27	-8.46	20	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2024-11-15	57.16	66.84	-11.10	0	Downward Expansion	-82	82
2024-11-08	58.37	67.39	-9.09	0	Downward Expansion	-79	58
2024-11-01	60.43	67.86	-5.26	0	Downward Expansion	-70	47
2024-10-25	62.20	68.31	-3.88	0	Downward Expansion	-51	34
2024-10-18	63.95	68.73	-2.43	0	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2024-10-11	62.80	69.06	-3.89	0	Downward Expansion	-48	37
2024-10-04	63.86	69.39	-2.14	0	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2024-09-27	64.93	69.22	-1.60	0	Downward Expansion	-50	45
2024-09-20	61.29	69.01	-6.26	0	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2024-09-13	63.56	68.96	-2.57	20	Downward Expansion	-64	70
2024-09-06	61.76	68.81	-4.88	0	Downward Expansion	-69	86
2024-08-30	62.80	68.70	-7.34	0	Rotation Down	-66	86
2024-08-23	60.70	68.46	-9.71	0	Rotation Down	-56	82
2024-08-16	61.49	68.29	-7.35	0	Rotation Down	-57	68
2024-08-09	63.59	68.07	-2.75	0	Deceleration	-54	48
2024-08-02	66.49	67.84	2.48	0	Deceleration	-31	34
2024-07-26	68.27	67.40	0.99	0	Deceleration	-6	40
2024-07-19	67.44	66.89	-0.41	0	Deceleration	-8	36
2024-07-12	68.68	66.40	0.29	0	Deceleration	-5	36
2024-07-05	66.40	65.84	-3.29	0	Deceleration	-18	39
2024-06-28	66.23	65.36	-1.20	24	Deceleration	-12	25
2024-06-21	68.30	64.91	2.05	0	Deceleration	26	24
2024-06-14	74.30	64.39	12.50	70	Upward Expansion	52	53
2024-06-07	76.76	63.68	12.25	0	Upward Expansion	68	60
2024-05-31	73.59	62.83	6.79	0	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-05-24	75.69	62.12	8.01	0	Upward Expansion	64	64
2024-05-17	78.41	61.38	11.64	0	Upward Expansion	81	72
2024-05-10	76.43	60.58	10.53	0	Upward Expansion	77	70
2024-05-03	73.62	59.89	9.14	0	Upward Expansion	65	66
2024-04-26	75.84	59.31	13.60	0	Upward Expansion	81	73
2024-04-19	73.47	58.64	10.42	0	Upward Expansion	67	85
2024-04-12	72.41	58.12	8.23	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-04-05	74.04	57.69	10.26	133	Upward Expansion	76	92
2024-03-29	74.89	57.24	12.48	40	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-03-22	73.62	56.81	11.78	0	Upward Expansion	96	98
2024-03-15	72.94	56.47	13.63	0	Rotation Up	97	97
2024-03-08	58.67	56.14	-7.63	0	Rotation Up	39	75
2024-03-01	58.46	56.25	-7.71	0	Rotation Up	41	77
2024-02-23	59.93	56.39	-5.29	0	Rotation Up	51	80
2024-02-16	59.00	56.57	-7.03	0	Rotation Up	51	76
2024-02-09	58.63	56.75	-5.97	0	Rotation Up	32	49
2024-02-02	55.58	56.96	-12.68	0	Downward Expansion	5	31
2024-01-26	55.46	57.27	-13.10	0	Downward Expansion	1	25
2024-01-19	55.05	57.70	-10.73	0	Downward Expansion	-15	25
2024-01-12	56.67	58.08	-9.41	0	Downward Expansion	-16	21
2024-01-05	53.23	58.44	-15.49	0	Downward Expansion	-50	51
2023-12-29	52.88	58.85	-16.09	0	Downward Expansion	-52	55
2023-12-22	52.77	59.27	-15.54	0	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2023-12-15	51.98	59.73	-15.84	60	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2023-12-08	51.91	60.36	-14.64	0	Downward Expansion	-71	65
2023-12-01	52.74	60.97	-13.03	0	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2023-11-24	52.79	61.58	-11.10	0	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2023-11-17	52.93	62.13	-11.20	0	Downward Expansion	-68	76
2023-11-10	51.37	62.66	-11.74	0	Downward Expansion	-86	91
2023-11-03	52.09	63.20	-9.84	0	Downward Expansion	-88	87
2023-10-27	53.67	63.70	-1.84	0	Downward Expansion	-82	84
2023-10-20	54.42	64.12	-0.64	0	Downward Expansion	-83	93

Price vs TrendAbove+0.7%

Trend directionRising+7.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+44.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-17.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+0.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-7.5%

Price momentumPositive+1.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-18 / ±100

-17.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

24 /100

-0.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CARL Directional State ↗ CARL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance51

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration62

Rotation Down55

Downward Expansion36

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 2%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 31%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	-0.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-08-28	Developing	-3.6%
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-07-03	New	+4.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-06-19	Established	+14.2%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-30	Developing	+3.7%
Balance	2025-12-05	2025-12-19	New	+2.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-11-28	Developing	+6.3%
Rotation Down	2025-08-15	2025-09-19	Developing	-0.3%
Deceleration	2025-07-04	2025-08-08	Developing	-10.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-06-27	Established	+25.0%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-03-07	New	+5.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-06	2025-02-07	Established	+2.6%
Rotation Down	2024-08-16	2024-08-30	New	+2.1%
Deceleration	2024-06-21	2024-08-09	Developing	-6.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing16

Stage 2 · Advancing75

Stage 3 · Distribution76

Stage 4 · Declining25

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 47/100
Current Relative Strength: 0.75
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +1.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.3%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 7th percentile15 in cohort

Test CARL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CARL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 115.04falling

Slow Activity EUR 117.69rising

Trend Reference EUR 116.08+0.7% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 80.96+44.3% close margin

Structural low EUR 107.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.9%

Annualized volatility +26.0%

From structural high -11.0%

From structural low +53.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	-2.3%-9.9% to +4.5%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-3.5%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-4.5%-18.3% to +1.0%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-10.4%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-9.4%-20.8% to +40.2%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-20.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+29.6%+11.6% to +34.6%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+12.5%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CARL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map