Weekly structural research · NYSEARCA · Market

AGG Stage Analysis

ISHARES TRUST CORE US AGGREGATE BD ETF

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 94.25Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -89−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 95/100directional strength

Maturity 23/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +0.4%USD 93.85 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	94.25	97.53	-11.73	80471710	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2026-09-25	94.78	97.69	-11.73	59817496	Downward Expansion	-89	92
2026-09-18	95.62	97.87	-10.13	51535820	Downward Expansion	-80	84
2026-09-11	95.64	98.00	-10.47	34611345	Downward Expansion	-85	78
2026-09-04	96.66	98.13	-10.52	46764297	Downward Expansion	-68	56
2026-08-28	96.81	98.20	-10.60	32426884	Downward Expansion	-66	53
2026-08-21	97.01	98.26	-10.29	34796968	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2026-08-14	97.14	98.31	-11.68	39873111	Downward Expansion	-61	70
2026-08-07	97.26	98.35	-11.74	53743207	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2026-07-31	96.70	98.39	-9.49	45090120	Downward Expansion	-76	74
2026-07-24	97.12	98.44	-8.42	33083657	Balance	-68	57
2026-07-17	97.86	98.49	-8.50	40152262	Balance	-50	27
2026-07-10	97.74	98.50	-10.28	40213892	Balance	-44	19
2026-07-03	98.27	98.50	-8.85	46490669	Balance	-8	11
2026-06-26	99.01	98.49	-6.44	43028580	Balance	6	10
2026-06-19	98.57	98.48	-9.32	27453239	Balance	-28	14
2026-06-12	98.43	98.46	-8.95	41676810	Balance	-48	24
2026-06-05	97.84	98.44	-9.30	43817828	Balance	-57	49
2026-05-29	98.40	98.44	-11.36	31474307	Balance	-23	33
2026-05-22	97.78	98.43	-11.00	40606474	Balance	-28	38
2026-05-15	97.37	98.45	-10.97	31731901	Balance	-28	31
2026-05-08	98.52	98.48	-10.05	43703094	Deceleration	29	16
2026-05-01	98.24	98.46	-8.60	48270958	Deceleration	23	16
2026-04-24	98.93	98.44	-7.46	31000908	Deceleration	38	24
2026-04-17	99.19	98.38	-7.14	34461251	Deceleration	30	13
2026-04-10	98.66	98.32	-3.95	49783629	Deceleration	-12	22
2026-04-03	98.57	98.28	-0.96	69246745	Deceleration	-17	30
2026-03-27	97.55	98.24	0.87	88417061	Upward Expansion	-23	34
2026-03-20	97.67	98.19	-1.48	49469995	Upward Expansion	5	11
2026-03-13	98.22	98.15	-2.93	44005412	Upward Expansion	44	37
2026-03-06	99.12	98.06	-3.75	53058936	Upward Expansion	66	80
2026-02-27	100.07	97.95	-4.96	42531094	Upward Expansion	89	94
2026-02-20	99.58	97.81	-6.07	27300793	Upward Expansion	83	86
2026-02-13	99.66	97.66	-5.07	43453722	Upward Expansion	90	76
2026-02-06	98.82	97.49	-7.18	55402736	Upward Expansion	73	50
2026-01-30	98.50	97.35	-7.81	51162317	Upward Expansion	63	46
2026-01-23	98.48	97.23	-7.60	49717285	Upward Expansion	63	46
2026-01-16	98.42	97.11	-8.10	46274276	Upward Expansion	62	48
2026-01-09	98.52	96.98	-8.46	41154716	Upward Expansion	68	49
2026-01-02	98.22	96.84	-7.47	36108339	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-12-26	98.41	96.68	-8.40	26910541	Upward Expansion	67	47
2025-12-19	98.21	96.53	-7.43	44993463	Upward Expansion	62	49
2025-12-12	97.85	96.37	-7.80	40515857	Upward Expansion	58	48
2025-12-05	98.07	96.22	-8.25	38789090	Upward Expansion	59	52
2025-11-28	98.52	96.08	-7.66	38506163	Upward Expansion	73	56
2025-11-21	98.15	95.92	-4.75	46808453	Upward Expansion	66	53
2025-11-14	97.72	95.79	-7.08	33290538	Upward Expansion	62	57
2025-11-07	97.92	95.65	-6.91	59849468	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-10-31	97.93	95.47	-8.53	54780398	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-10-24	98.51	95.37	-7.55	50048240	Upward Expansion	81	73
2025-10-17	98.34	95.22	-6.11	44900624	Upward Expansion	83	71
2025-10-10	97.82	95.08	-5.13	34460287	Upward Expansion	77	69
2025-10-03	97.58	94.94	-7.80	38438468	Upward Expansion	74	84
2025-09-26	97.16	94.80	-7.40	35960629	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-09-19	97.37	94.70	-7.69	35544369	Upward Expansion	76	89
2025-09-12	97.61	94.56	-6.57	33547607	Upward Expansion	90	95
2025-09-05	97.18	94.40	-5.78	30843853	Upward Expansion	89	91
2025-08-29	96.24	94.24	-6.67	33891781	Upward Expansion	75	84
2025-08-22	96.19	94.10	-6.97	40049175	Upward Expansion	78	85
2025-08-15	95.74	93.96	-7.36	39418195	Upward Expansion	69	77
2025-08-08	95.74	93.82	-6.69	40020524	Upward Expansion	74	73
2025-08-01	95.93	93.65	-4.47	59543765	Upward Expansion	82	72
2025-07-25	94.95	93.51	-7.98	35680060	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-07-18	94.62	93.39	-7.14	56268403	Upward Expansion	59	63
2025-07-11	94.57	93.29	-6.79	38169602	Upward Expansion	60	66
2025-07-04	94.97	93.22	-6.80	45856346	Upward Expansion	66	64
2025-06-27	94.98	93.17	-5.36	57933768	Balance	64	52
2025-06-20	94.42	93.12	-2.79	23113877	Balance	55	37
2025-06-13	94.17	93.03	-3.31	31856904	Balance	50	23
2025-06-06	93.52	92.95	-4.46	60085954	Balance	22	10
2025-05-30	94.00	92.92	-2.53	35583483	Balance	40	18
2025-05-23	93.17	92.85	-1.81	38418197	Balance	31	14
2025-05-16	93.58	92.82	-3.99	37325852	Balance	36	21
2025-05-09	93.67	92.81	1.03	46114469	Rotation Up	38	22
2025-05-02	93.85	92.80	0.72	35784038	Rotation Up	39	19
2025-04-25	94.17	92.79	3.89	45407376	Rotation Up	49	28
2025-04-18	93.47	92.81	7.82	33709387	Rotation Up	41	26
2025-04-11	92.68	92.85	5.38	69591857	Rotation Up	50	34
2025-04-04	94.99	92.93	14.11	56690309	Rotation Up	52	57
2025-03-28	93.98	92.92	2.84	35349033	Rotation Up	39	52
2025-03-21	93.99	92.90	1.28	37977737	Rotation Up	43	64
2025-03-14	93.56	92.89	1.23	47782135	Rotation Up	27	55
2025-03-07	93.62	92.88	-1.12	38765343	Rotation Up	30	52
2025-02-28	94.19	92.85	-3.76	38851952	Balance	43	47
2025-02-21	93.02	92.82	-6.06	48793545	Balance	4	18
2025-02-14	92.72	92.76	-8.11	33744014	Downward Expansion	-17	18
2025-02-07	92.49	92.71	-7.27	41229306	Downward Expansion	-32	19
2025-01-31	92.13	92.67	-8.08	36798299	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-01-24	91.76	92.62	-9.70	29175823	Downward Expansion	-58	58
2025-01-17	91.67	92.55	-8.58	40642365	Rotation Down	-62	68
2025-01-10	90.75	92.51	-7.20	35668193	Rotation Down	-49	67
2025-01-03	91.57	92.51	-8.55	33310261	Rotation Down	-36	53
2024-12-27	91.41	92.44	-9.58	34501896	Deceleration	-39	27
2024-12-20	91.71	92.36	-9.09	52772707	Deceleration	3	8
2024-12-13	92.32	92.27	-10.55	43689154	Deceleration	16	14
2024-12-06	93.65	92.17	-10.21	54414295	Deceleration	36	17
2024-11-29	93.23	92.01	-10.23	38922531	Deceleration	8	16
2024-11-22	91.93	91.86	-10.83	26886061	Deceleration	-8	29
2024-11-15	91.79	91.72	-9.86	56268533	Deceleration	-12	31
2024-11-08	92.57	91.58	-11.34	46053331	Deceleration	5	25
2024-11-01	91.84	91.44	-8.28	47115269	Deceleration	2	24
2024-10-25	92.37	91.34	-9.41	54524010	Deceleration	28	29
2024-10-18	93.24	91.25	-9.89	25691877	Upward Expansion	44	32
2024-10-11	93.22	91.14	-9.52	32577121	Upward Expansion	52	48
2024-10-04	93.65	91.00	-8.44	48010072	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-09-27	94.80	90.88	-7.40	36648487	Upward Expansion	70	79
2024-09-20	94.79	90.70	-7.25	37506821	Upward Expansion	73	82
2024-09-13	95.03	90.51	-6.04	29483318	Upward Expansion	84	90
2024-09-06	94.52	90.30	-3.08	38239446	Upward Expansion	83	87
2024-08-30	93.35	90.12	-8.45	35705088	Upward Expansion	67	80
2024-08-23	93.83	90.01	-8.00	30646996	Upward Expansion	82	92
2024-08-16	93.23	89.86	-7.62	36234156	Upward Expansion	80	90
2024-08-09	92.70	89.73	-4.79	40533790	Upward Expansion	77	86
2024-08-02	93.42	89.66	-4.25	43433935	Upward Expansion	93	93
2024-07-26	91.27	89.53	-8.65	42472174	Upward Expansion	71	76
2024-07-19	91.02	89.50	-9.91	39921216	Upward Expansion	69	69
2024-07-12	91.34	89.47	-11.66	24313411	Rotation Up	79	74
2024-07-05	90.58	89.42	-11.86	25232210	Rotation Up	41	58
2024-06-28	89.83	89.34	-11.26	33741071	Rotation Up	23	48
2024-06-21	90.47	89.28	-11.00	22632858	Rotation Up	35	53
2024-06-14	90.62	89.14	-10.65	33847661	Balance	46	46
2024-06-07	89.41	88.99	-10.70	26611237	Balance	15	18
2024-05-31	89.04	88.85	-10.32	28626950	Balance	4	13
2024-05-24	89.10	88.73	-10.97	22481635	Balance	3	12
2024-05-17	89.27	88.55	-11.17	29514641	Deceleration	17	11
2024-05-10	88.78	88.34	-10.59	34488753	Deceleration	0	22
2024-05-03	88.74	88.21	-9.41	46384779	Deceleration	-19	37
2024-04-26	87.67	88.04	-10.36	43027858	Deceleration	-11	31
2024-04-19	87.72	87.94	-8.35	53678149	Upward Expansion	-11	22
2024-04-12	88.25	87.88	-10.98	61683553	Upward Expansion	5	8
2024-04-05	88.92	87.80	-12.01	47627950	Upward Expansion	39	24
2024-03-29	89.81	87.72	-12.35	38098349	Upward Expansion	59	41
2024-03-22	89.70	87.61	-12.55	37444756	Deceleration	58	39
2024-03-15	89.03	87.49	-11.74	40963573	Deceleration	42	31
2024-03-08	90.11	87.39	-11.20	45675357	Deceleration	66	39
2024-03-01	89.43	87.26	-12.51	52151562	Deceleration	41	26
2024-02-23	88.99	87.18	-12.44	31797147	Deceleration	41	29
2024-02-16	88.77	87.13	-11.58	45264017	Deceleration	44	35
2024-02-09	89.26	87.09	-11.72	42618020	Upward Expansion	47	40
2024-02-02	90.02	87.05	-10.07	44352788	Upward Expansion	57	50
2024-01-26	89.40	86.93	-9.72	47143615	Upward Expansion	61	52
2024-01-19	89.35	86.87	-9.16	43168641	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-01-12	90.34	86.82	-7.41	36418635	Upward Expansion	72	85
2024-01-05	89.52	86.73	-6.84	38688671	Upward Expansion	68	86
2023-12-29	90.47	86.67	-7.64	26835916	Rotation Up	81	92
2023-12-22	90.09	86.57	-8.02	54769955	Rotation Up	57	80
2023-12-15	89.96	86.47	-7.64	60645174	Rotation Up	52	72
2023-12-08	88.07	86.39	-7.76	43256779	Rotation Up	40	49
2023-12-01	88.02	86.41	-7.89	47274437	Downward Expansion	39	40
2023-11-24	86.25	86.43	-9.21	26719614	Downward Expansion	-14	23
2023-11-17	86.34	86.52	-8.44	52175462	Downward Expansion	-25	19
2023-11-10	85.17	86.59	-7.83	38025938	Downward Expansion	-50	40
2023-11-03	85.37	86.69	-6.55	57972049	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2023-10-27	83.68	86.83	-3.29	50180475	Downward Expansion	-71	85
2023-10-20	83.14	86.98	-6.42	42066685	Downward Expansion	-86	91
2023-10-13	84.62	87.17	-7.25	52959742	Downward Expansion	-67	81

Price vs TrendBelow-3.4%

Trend directionFalling-0.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+0.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-2.9%

Price momentumNegative-4.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.19×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-89 / ±100

-20.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

95 /100

+38.9 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AGG Directional State ↗ AGG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance1

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down88

Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 14%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-10-02	Developing	-2.5%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-07-24	Developing	-0.2%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-05-08	Developing	-0.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2026-03-27	Extended	+2.7%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-06-27	Developing	+1.5%
Rotation Up	2025-03-07	2025-05-09	Developing	+0.1%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-02-28	New	+1.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-02-14	New	+1.0%
Rotation Down	2025-01-03	2025-01-17	New	+0.1%
Deceleration	2024-10-25	2024-12-27	Developing	-1.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-10-18	Established	+2.4%
Rotation Up	2024-06-21	2024-07-12	New	+1.0%
Balance	2024-05-24	2024-06-14	New	+1.7%
Deceleration	2024-04-26	2024-05-17	New	+1.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing60

Stage 2 · Advancing11

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining89

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.73
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -4.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -22.0%
Sector regime cohort: 95th percentile560 in cohort

Test AGG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.86×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.19×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AGG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 95.01falling

Slow Activity USD 97.01falling

Trend Reference USD 97.53-3.4% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 93.85+0.4% close margin

Structural low USD 93.84shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +0.8%

Annualized volatility +3.8%

From structural high -5.9%

From structural low +0.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	+0.1%-4.0% to +3.4%	+52.6%	+47.4%	+1.0%	+78.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+0.5%-6.9% to +6.3%	+57.1%	+42.9%	-1.4%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+1.1%-7.9% to +3.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.7%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+7.3%-8.9% to +8.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-7.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AGG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map