Weekly structural research · MIL · Consumer Cyclical

BC Stage Analysis

Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 80.56Tenure DevelopingBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -28−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 38/100directional strength

Maturity 12/100lifecycle context

Confidence 62/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -11.9%EUR 91.48 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	80.56	82.18	-8.77	758598	Rotation Down	-28	38
2026-10-02	80.18	81.81	-10.96	1131004	Rotation Down	-20	41
2026-09-25	80.80	81.61	-13.13	1096872	Rotation Down	-19	36
2026-09-18	79.00	81.62	-14.88	1605350	Rotation Down	-25	34
2026-09-11	76.72	81.88	-19.62	1140700	Rotation Down	-2	15
2026-09-04	81.04	82.12	-15.15	272331	Upward Expansion	38	28
2026-08-28	89.12	82.15	-8.30	153939	Upward Expansion	66	77
2026-08-21	88.54	81.83	-9.57	160020	Upward Expansion	64	76
2026-08-14	89.08	81.58	-11.13	131493	Upward Expansion	67	72
2026-08-07	90.00	81.49	-10.95	261042	Balance	72	65
2026-07-31	87.92	81.76	-11.00	1004290	Balance	63	37
2026-07-24	81.58	82.02	-17.43	211620	Balance	-1	7
2026-07-17	82.30	82.55	-17.57	167105	Balance	-17	14
2026-07-10	80.32	83.10	-21.44	165729	Balance	-20	12
2026-07-03	82.34	83.58	-20.67	272366	Balance	2	6
2026-06-26	81.92	83.96	-19.56	221936	Balance	-4	12
2026-06-19	84.68	84.24	-20.09	528205	Balance	-1	17
2026-06-12	85.42	84.34	-18.00	510999	Balance	3	11
2026-06-05	82.92	84.46	-18.46	241448	Balance	-17	9
2026-05-29	82.48	84.55	-19.77	1821758	Balance	-20	11
2026-05-22	82.30	84.69	-19.86	1020529	Balance	-12	9
2026-05-15	80.08	84.91	-22.08	933584	Balance	-14	12
2026-05-08	84.03	85.20	-19.33	1225443	Balance	-6	18
2026-05-01	81.70	85.31	-20.48	690010	Downward Expansion	-22	26
2026-04-24	82.82	85.59	-19.05	1146311	Downward Expansion	-26	27
2026-04-17	86.71	85.58	-18.01	2349948	Downward Expansion	-23	19
2026-04-10	82.77	86.10	-20.27	2146869	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2026-04-03	75.82	86.56	-24.44	1067318	Downward Expansion	-66	75
2026-03-27	70.86	87.20	-26.40	1229787	Downward Expansion	-71	86
2026-03-20	71.41	88.09	-25.58	2110461	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2026-03-13	69.44	89.00	-30.66	1699201	Downward Expansion	-87	80
2026-03-06	74.08	89.86	-26.52	2245005	Downward Expansion	-83	56
2026-02-27	81.28	90.57	-25.32	1808924	Downward Expansion	-68	47
2026-02-20	86.58	91.07	-20.16	1677613	Downward Expansion	-61	66
2026-02-13	84.13	91.52	-21.52	2018641	Downward Expansion	-62	76
2026-02-06	81.78	92.17	-25.37	1877187	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2026-01-30	79.57	93.00	-27.69	2037082	Balance	-76	66
2026-01-23	80.95	93.89	-26.23	2586050	Balance	-61	40
2026-01-16	86.40	94.57	-23.81	3150526	Rotation Up	-39	19
2026-01-09	98.15	95.00	-14.13	2088675	Rotation Up	29	53
2026-01-02	95.91	94.95	-16.03	645047	Rotation Up	22	47
2025-12-26	97.28	95.17	-13.93	388612	Balance	24	38
2025-12-19	98.77	95.49	-13.46	2171632	Balance	5	17
2025-12-12	94.91	95.63	-15.00	2141423	Downward Expansion	-19	14
2025-12-05	93.60	96.15	-16.48	1592461	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2025-11-28	90.48	96.36	-19.46	1324388	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-11-21	87.46	96.68	-21.27	1587000	Downward Expansion	-55	35
2025-11-14	89.24	97.03	-22.46	2254394	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2025-11-07	85.53	97.21	-24.10	1210119	Downward Expansion	-65	48
2025-10-31	86.62	97.43	-23.95	1538383	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2025-10-24	88.85	97.68	-21.06	2023737	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2025-10-17	88.75	98.20	-20.08	2478196	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2025-10-10	87.40	98.75	-22.13	4063506	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2025-10-03	90.13	99.45	-22.30	10675524	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2025-09-26	82.53	100.08	-28.18	7486419	Downward Expansion	-79	48
2025-09-19	102.42	101.40	-10.64	1314477	Downward Expansion	-25	16
2025-09-12	96.45	102.12	-16.35	624902	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2025-09-05	94.95	103.18	-15.88	1147574	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2025-08-29	97.55	104.03	-14.88	1139254	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2025-08-22	98.77	104.84	-16.16	639505	Downward Expansion	-58	62
2025-08-15	95.28	105.49	-18.07	423970	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2025-08-08	95.48	106.12	-16.04	694693	Balance	-61	51
2025-08-01	96.07	106.50	-12.14	772301	Balance	-58	29
2025-07-25	100.20	106.67	-10.21	576374	Balance	-24	15
2025-07-18	103.75	106.78	-6.11	566801	Balance	-13	14
2025-07-11	106.42	106.75	-3.05	702013	Balance	-11	9
2025-07-04	106.32	106.60	-2.03	571747	Downward Expansion	-28	20
2025-06-27	101.53	106.22	-6.72	516889	Downward Expansion	-48	35
2025-06-20	99.06	105.89	-7.94	784793	Balance	-51	29
2025-06-13	96.82	105.57	-10.61	609387	Balance	-49	24
2025-06-06	102.37	105.22	-8.38	668080	Balance	2	14
2025-05-30	107.06	104.79	-3.04	545734	Balance	7	16
2025-05-23	102.91	104.20	-5.32	785328	Balance	-4	13
2025-05-16	110.52	103.81	-1.32	742185	Rotation Down	6	11
2025-05-09	99.90	103.25	-7.84	458012	Rotation Down	-30	29
2025-05-02	100.15	103.02	-5.18	521039	Rotation Down	-26	39
2025-04-25	97.94	102.76	-4.98	597558	Rotation Down	-29	61
2025-04-18	94.59	102.60	-4.83	914174	Rotation Down	-33	60
2025-04-11	92.10	102.16	-2.12	1554449	Deceleration	-43	49
2025-04-04	94.03	101.86	-1.95	1306715	Deceleration	-24	39
2025-03-28	104.55	101.44	-2.55	806443	Deceleration	8	29
2025-03-21	105.24	100.85	-2.84	1112649	Deceleration	22	30
2025-03-14	108.27	100.27	0.84	1546732	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-03-07	109.06	99.45	1.54	1110670	Upward Expansion	54	53
2025-02-28	122.37	98.55	13.40	763570	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-02-21	123.94	97.17	15.43	1000467	Upward Expansion	70	83
2025-02-14	128.05	95.88	20.64	870285	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-02-07	120.61	94.41	16.55	757927	Upward Expansion	77	91
2025-01-31	121.98	93.46	19.86	1022059	Upward Expansion	90	96
2025-01-24	118.26	92.43	17.39	938705	Upward Expansion	91	95
2025-01-17	113.95	91.54	13.19	1578473	Upward Expansion	91	95
2025-01-10	107.00	90.74	10.17	796044	Upward Expansion	80	88
2025-01-03	101.22	90.16	7.40	350209	Upward Expansion	67	84
2024-12-27	103.48	89.86	9.93	230952	Upward Expansion	78	87
2024-12-20	102.79	89.43	10.64	911754	Upward Expansion	77	78
2024-12-13	101.91	89.08	6.34	1421346	Balance	76	67
2024-12-06	94.86	88.79	-0.49	750059	Balance	59	32
2024-11-29	91.78	88.70	0.27	753207	Balance	10	8
2024-11-22	89.48	88.81	-2.27	677043	Balance	1	8
2024-11-15	86.20	88.97	-7.70	690774	Balance	-14	11
2024-11-08	89.38	89.23	-3.25	557544	Rotation Up	13	13
2024-11-01	89.57	89.45	-5.45	541100	Rotation Up	18	32
2024-10-25	91.19	89.66	-4.13	619757	Rotation Up	20	42
2024-10-18	93.69	90.04	-2.72	1173970	Rotation Up	26	35
2024-10-11	92.85	90.19	-1.07	596562	Balance	22	27
2024-10-04	92.51	90.57	0.88	944534	Balance	1	10
2024-09-27	93.05	91.14	-1.67	1553653	Downward Expansion	-17	15
2024-09-20	81.45	91.68	-11.34	1107452	Downward Expansion	-64	43
2024-09-13	83.16	92.50	-8.96	554519	Downward Expansion	-58	35
2024-09-06	81.45	93.17	-10.12	1393891	Downward Expansion	-68	40
2024-08-30	86.88	93.70	-7.19	730513	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2024-08-23	87.71	93.83	-4.30	608923	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-08-16	83.70	93.85	-6.87	342845	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2024-08-09	81.89	93.81	-5.27	722410	Downward Expansion	-73	84
2024-08-02	81.16	93.86	-6.80	538308	Downward Expansion	-81	83
2024-07-26	85.22	93.83	-7.31	688199	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2024-07-19	83.85	93.85	-9.85	1224397	Downward Expansion	-78	56
2024-07-12	92.12	93.89	-2.10	855272	Deceleration	-14	17
2024-07-05	91.09	93.58	-1.54	458491	Rotation Down	-27	32
2024-06-28	91.53	93.11	1.33	745665	Rotation Down	-29	31
2024-06-21	90.11	92.49	-0.71	528519	Rotation Down	-35	42
2024-06-14	89.53	92.00	0.45	613003	Deceleration	-29	38
2024-06-07	92.22	91.52	-2.64	649921	Deceleration	1	20
2024-05-31	90.50	90.98	-4.18	625582	Deceleration	-6	26
2024-05-24	92.27	90.58	-2.54	477463	Deceleration	1	13
2024-05-17	93.24	89.92	-4.20	510768	Deceleration	6	15
2024-05-10	92.27	89.24	-3.33	420944	Deceleration	3	15
2024-05-03	95.08	88.41	2.46	530799	Deceleration	14	18
2024-04-26	94.16	87.57	-0.53	634265	Deceleration	25	25
2024-04-19	94.21	86.76	0.25	834701	Deceleration	31	25
2024-04-12	95.71	85.93	2.05	677579	Deceleration	37	28
2024-04-05	95.90	85.16	1.26	748868	Upward Expansion	44	33
2024-03-29	102.79	84.33	5.95	722328	Upward Expansion	61	53
2024-03-22	98.23	83.35	2.25	1248348	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-03-15	104.24	82.34	9.62	1754833	Upward Expansion	68	78
2024-03-08	109.38	81.20	16.98	754881	Upward Expansion	79	92
2024-03-01	109.38	79.96	19.03	884408	Upward Expansion	88	96
2024-02-23	105.89	78.71	16.49	554630	Upward Expansion	89	95
2024-02-16	103.27	77.62	17.41	849236	Upward Expansion	92	96
2024-02-09	97.55	76.66	13.34	549760	Upward Expansion	88	89
2024-02-02	90.76	76.01	7.27	571247	Upward Expansion	80	71
2024-01-26	88.34	75.60	5.62	828594	Upward Expansion	75	51
2024-01-19	82.38	75.26	-1.14	605322	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-01-12	83.30	75.13	-0.64	974115	Upward Expansion	63	69
2024-01-05	80.34	75.11	-3.96	722259	Upward Expansion	63	73
2023-12-29	85.91	75.10	2.98	215680	Rotation Up	77	81
2023-12-22	85.04	74.92	1.95	677485	Rotation Up	49	59
2023-12-15	82.91	74.67	-0.68	2047879	Balance	46	38
2023-12-08	76.80	74.54	-8.16	510520	Balance	20	15
2023-12-01	73.12	74.67	-11.31	608041	Balance	10	16
2023-11-24	75.39	75.01	-7.04	410090	Balance	14	22
2023-11-17	74.96	75.28	-7.64	590601	Balance	12	22
2023-11-10	75.98	75.71	-3.01	487909	Balance	-3	18
2023-11-03	78.55	76.15	-0.19	478083	Downward Expansion	2	9
2023-10-27	72.44	76.42	-3.02	526362	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2023-10-20	72.82	76.94	-2.66	589402	Downward Expansion	-53	34

Price vs TrendBelow-2.0%

Trend directionRising+0.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-11.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-8.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+12.7%

Price momentumNegative-2.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.66×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-28 / ±100

-26.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

38 /100

+22.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BC Directional State ↗ BC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up18

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration49

Rotation Down57

Downward Expansion51

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 20%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-10-09	Developing	+5.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	-9.0%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-08-07	Established	+7.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-05-01	Established	-0.1%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-01-30	New	-1.7%
Rotation Up	2026-01-02	2026-01-16	New	-9.9%
Balance	2025-12-19	2025-12-26	New	-1.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-12-12	Established	-0.4%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-08-08	Developing	-10.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-07-04	New	+4.7%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-20	Developing	-3.7%
Rotation Down	2025-04-18	2025-05-16	Developing	+16.8%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-04-11	New	-12.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-03-14	Established	+5.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing78

Stage 2 · Advancing36

Stage 3 · Distribution44

Stage 4 · Declining64

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 69/100
Current Relative Strength: -8.77
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -2.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.2%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 33th percentile3 in cohort

Test BC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.28×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.66×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 80.04falling

Slow Activity EUR 82.95falling

Trend Reference EUR 82.18-2.0% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 91.48-11.9% close margin

Structural low EUR 75.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +5.1%

Annualized volatility +25.1%

From structural high -20.3%

From structural low +18.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	-3.2%-12.4% to +16.8%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-2.6%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-5.2%-14.4% to +9.7%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-3.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+11.7%-6.2% to +20.9%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+15.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+16.6%-8.3% to +52.8%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+2.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map